2023 week 2 · Luck Factor

Regular

Sep 12 – 18, 2023

j-mart

109.48

Rank 10; +2.5 luck points

Demich

103.49

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.46 points left. Optimal 125.94 vs. actual 109.48.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	22.88	Lamar Jackson	22.88
WR	Mike Williams	16.60	Mike Williams	16.60
WR	Jaylen Waddle	12.40	Jaylen Waddle	12.40
RB	Nick Chubb	6.40	Nick Chubb	6.40
RB	Justice Hill	8.30	Justice Hill	8.30
TE	Mark Andrews	15.50	Mark Andrews	15.50
W/R/T	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	8.40	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	8.40
W/R/T	Rashee Rice	4.00	Tank Dell	20.46
DEF	Cowboys	15.00	Cowboys	15.00

Carried by One Guy: Lamar Jackson, 22.88 points (20.9% of positive starter points).

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 23.26 points left. Optimal 126.75 vs. actual 103.49.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Fields	14.74	Justin Fields	14.74
WR	A.J. Brown	6.90	Josh Reynolds	23.60
WR	CeeDee Lamb	27.30	CeeDee Lamb	27.30
RB	James Conner	18.60	James Conner	18.60
RB	Kenneth Walker	18.40	Kenneth Walker	18.40
TE	George Kittle	6.00	George Kittle	6.00
W/R/T	Elijah Moore	7.10	Elijah Moore	7.10
W/R/T	Romeo Doubs	5.00	Rashid Shaheed	11.56
DEF	Broncos	-0.55	Broncos	-0.55

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: CeeDee Lamb, 27.30 points (26.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Lamar Jackson scored 22.88; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 12 – 18, 2023

Kev

148.28

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Josh

72.77

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.40 points left. Optimal 164.68 vs. actual 148.28.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Anthony Richardson Sr.	17.74	Anthony Richardson Sr.	17.74
WR	Nico Collins	29.60	Nico Collins	29.60
WR	Drake London	18.70	Drake London	18.70
RB	Alexander Mattison	4.90	Khalil Herbert	6.80
RB	Tyler Allgeier	4.80	Zach Charbonnet	5.00
TE	Travis Kelce	12.60	Travis Kelce	12.60
W/R/T	Donovan Peoples-Jones	1.70	Amari Cooper	16.00
W/R/T	Puka Nacua	32.10	Puka Nacua	32.10
DEF	Steelers	26.14	Steelers	26.14

Carried by One Guy: Puka Nacua, 32.10 points (21.6% of positive starter points).

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 39.00 points left. Optimal 111.77 vs. actual 72.77.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Herbert	24.20	Justin Herbert	24.20
WR	Calvin Ridley	5.20	K.J. Osborn	12.40
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	8.10	Ja'Marr Chase	8.10
RB	David Montgomery	12.40	David Montgomery	12.40
RB	Javonte Williams	7.80	Javonte Williams	7.80
TE	Dalton Schultz	7.40	Zach Ertz	11.60
W/R/T	Allen Robinson	3.20	Jake Ferguson	10.10
W/R/T	Samaje Perine	5.40	Jerome Ford	26.10
DEF	Jets	-0.93	Jets	-0.93

Carried by One Guy: Justin Herbert, 24.20 points (32.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 12 – 18, 2023

Krajcik

126.03

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

96.97

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.50 points left. Optimal 127.53 vs. actual 126.03.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	23.20	Patrick Mahomes	23.20
WR	Christian Kirk	23.96	Christian Kirk	23.96
WR	Michael Pittman Jr.	13.60	Michael Pittman Jr.	13.60
RB	Antonio Gibson	8.30	Antonio Gibson	8.30
RB	Najee Harris	5.30	Najee Harris	5.30
TE	Pat Freiermuth	1.20	Pat Freiermuth	1.20
W/R/T	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	3.30	D'Andre Swift	29.10
W/R/T	D'Andre Swift	29.10	Rashod Bateman	4.80
DEF	Buccaneers	18.07	Buccaneers	18.07

Carried by One Guy: D'Andre Swift, 29.10 points (23.1% of positive starter points).

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.92 points left. Optimal 105.89 vs. actual 96.97.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	15.38	Dak Prescott	19.60
WR	Curtis Samuel	6.20	Zay Flowers	10.80
WR	Zay Flowers	10.80	Jalin Hyatt	10.90
RB	Tony Pollard	19.90	Tony Pollard	19.90
RB	Travis Etienne Jr.	6.20	Travis Etienne Jr.	6.20
TE	Cole Kmet	7.80	Cole Kmet	7.80
W/R/T	Darren Waller	13.60	Darren Waller	13.60
W/R/T	Isiah Pacheco	8.00	Isiah Pacheco	8.00
DEF	Commanders	9.09	Commanders	9.09

Carried by One Guy: Tony Pollard, 19.90 points (20.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: D'Andre Swift scored 29.10; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 12 – 18, 2023

Adam

145.46

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Martin

137.07

Rank 5; -2.5 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.44 points left. Optimal 150.90 vs. actual 145.46.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Geno Smith	25.12	Kirk Cousins	30.56
WR	Keenan Allen	33.10	Keenan Allen	33.10
WR	Justin Jefferson	26.90	Justin Jefferson	26.90
RB	Miles Sanders	7.70	Miles Sanders	7.70
RB	Jahmyr Gibbs	12.60	Jahmyr Gibbs	12.60
TE	Kyle Pitts Sr.	3.50	Kyle Pitts Sr.	3.50
W/R/T	Tyler Lockett	25.90	Tyler Lockett	25.90
W/R/T	Michael Thomas	12.50	Michael Thomas	12.50
DEF	Giants	-1.86	Giants	-1.86

Carried by One Guy: Keenan Allen, 33.10 points (22.5% of positive starter points).

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 22.10 points left. Optimal 159.17 vs. actual 137.07.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	25.22	Jalen Hurts	25.22
WR	Robert Woods	13.54	Robert Woods	13.54
WR	Davante Adams	20.40	Davante Adams	20.40
RB	Derrick Henry	18.50	Derrick Henry	18.50
RB	James Cook III	21.90	James Cook III	21.90
TE	Dallas Goedert	8.20	Hunter Henry	17.20
W/R/T	Courtland Sutton	11.60	Adam Thielen	20.40
W/R/T	AJ Dillon	7.30	Courtland Sutton	11.60
DEF	Bills	10.41	Bills	10.41

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Jalen Hurts, 25.22 points (18.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Keenan Allen scored 33.10; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 12 – 18, 2023

Miller

139.06

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

110.89

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 20.50 points left. Optimal 159.56 vs. actual 139.06.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Daniel Jones	32.74	Daniel Jones	32.74
WR	DeVonta Smith	25.10	DeVonta Smith	25.10
WR	Jordan Addison	16.20	Jordan Addison	16.20
RB	Breece Hall	0.90	Brian Robinson	28.90
RB	Brian Robinson	28.90	Tyjae Spears	7.50
TE	David Njoku	6.80	David Njoku	6.80
W/R/T	Tyreek Hill	15.00	Tyreek Hill	15.00
W/R/T	Brandon Aiyuk	7.30	Gabe Davis	21.20
DEF	Patriots	6.12	Patriots	6.12

Carried by One Guy: Daniel Jones, 32.74 points (23.5% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 24.70 points left. Optimal 135.59 vs. actual 110.89.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Trevor Lawrence	9.24	Trevor Lawrence	9.24
WR	Zay Jones	0.00	Tee Higgins	28.90
WR	Tee Higgins	28.90	Skyy Moore	16.00
RB	Joshua Kelley	3.90	Rachaad White	21.30
RB	Rachaad White	21.30	Jaylen Warren	12.60
TE	Luke Musgrave	4.50	Luke Musgrave	4.50
W/R/T	Christian McCaffrey	24.50	Christian McCaffrey	24.50
W/R/T	Rhamondre Stevenson	15.00	Rhamondre Stevenson	15.00
DEF	Packers	3.55	Packers	3.55

Carried by One Guy: Tee Higgins, 28.90 points (26.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Daniel Jones scored 32.74; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 12 – 18, 2023

Joe Shore

174.51

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Niz

99.13

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.50 points left. Optimal 179.01 vs. actual 174.51.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tua Tagovailoa	12.26	Tua Tagovailoa	12.26
WR	DK Metcalf	13.50	Hollywood Brown	17.40
WR	Chris Olave	14.60	Tutu Atwell	15.20
RB	Raheem Mostert	27.70	Raheem Mostert	27.70
RB	Saquon Barkley	27.20	Saquon Barkley	27.20
TE	Sam LaPorta	11.30	Sam LaPorta	11.30
W/R/T	Mike Evans	31.10	Mike Evans	31.10
W/R/T	Kyren Williams	28.22	Kyren Williams	28.22
DEF	Saints	8.63	Saints	8.63

Carried by One Guy: Mike Evans, 31.10 points (17.8% of positive starter points).

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 20.24 points left. Optimal 119.37 vs. actual 99.13.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Deshaun Watson	11.60	Brock Purdy	14.74
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	8.00	DeAndre Hopkins	8.00
WR	Stefon Diggs	13.60	Stefon Diggs	13.60
RB	Josh Jacobs	9.90	Josh Jacobs	9.90
RB	Cam Akers	0.00	Chuba Hubbard	10.00
TE	T.J. Hockenson	25.60	T.J. Hockenson	25.60
W/R/T	Kendrick Bourne	6.90	DJ Moore	18.40
W/R/T	DJ Moore	18.40	Isaiah Hodgins	14.00
DEF	49ers	5.13	49ers	5.13

Carried by One Guy: T.J. Hockenson, 25.60 points (25.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 12 – 18, 2023

Nevans

120.24

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

114.46

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 120.24 vs. actual 120.24.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Derek Carr	6.72	Derek Carr	6.72
WR	Deebo Samuel Sr.	22.10	Deebo Samuel Sr.	22.10
WR	Terry McLaurin	16.40	Terry McLaurin	16.40
RB	Joe Mixon	13.50	Joe Mixon	13.50
RB	Bijan Robinson	23.20	Bijan Robinson	23.20
TE	Dalton Kincaid	9.30	Dalton Kincaid	9.30
W/R/T	Chris Godwin Jr.	10.80	Chris Godwin Jr.	10.80
W/R/T	Gus Edwards	12.20	Gus Edwards	12.20
DEF	Eagles	6.02	Eagles	6.02

Carried by One Guy: Bijan Robinson, 23.20 points (19.3% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 23.50 points left. Optimal 137.96 vs. actual 114.46.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	23.66	Josh Allen	23.66
WR	Jerry Jeudy	5.50	Tyler Boyd	11.20
WR	Amon-Ra St. Brown	16.20	Amon-Ra St. Brown	16.20
RB	Jamaal Williams	2.90	Zack Moss	20.70
RB	Dameon Pierce	5.50	Dameon Pierce	5.50
TE	Evan Engram	11.70	Evan Engram	11.70
W/R/T	Garrett Wilson	16.30	Garrett Wilson	16.30
W/R/T	George Pickens	24.70	George Pickens	24.70
DEF	Browns	8.00	Browns	8.00

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: George Pickens, 24.70 points (21.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Bijan Robinson scored 23.20; zeroing that score creates a win.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	1–1	0.846	+2.0	+0.154	1 / 1
Miller	2–0	1.769	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Kev	1–1	1.077	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Demich	0–2	0.308	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Krajcik	2–0	1.308	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Big Hut	0–2	0.538	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Adam	1–1	1.154	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Nevans	2–0	0.769	+3.5	+0.269	1 / 0
Josh	0–2	0.923	-5.5	-0.423	0 / 1
Martin	0–2	0.692	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1
Fischer	1–1	1.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Joe Shore	2–0	1.846	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Niz	1–1	0.923	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Horgan	1–1	0.846	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 0

2023 week 2 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Demich lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Joe Shore lineup

Niz lineup

Regular

Nevans lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 2