2023 week 6 · Luck Factor

Regular

Oct 10 – 16, 2023

j-mart

91.28

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Niz

103.88

Rank 9; +1.5 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 91.28 vs. actual 91.28.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	17.12	Lamar Jackson	17.12
WR	Jaylen Waddle	18.10	Jaylen Waddle	18.10
WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	8.80	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	8.80
RB	Justice Hill	6.50	Justice Hill	6.50
RB	Jonathan Taylor	11.50	Jonathan Taylor	11.50
TE	Mark Andrews	10.90	Mark Andrews	10.90
W/R/T	Allen Lazard	1.80	Allen Lazard	1.80
W/R/T	Rashee Rice	11.20	Rashee Rice	11.20
DEF	Cowboys	5.36	Cowboys	5.36

Carried by One Guy: Jaylen Waddle, 18.10 points (19.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Stefon Diggs scored 22.00; zeroing that score creates a win.

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 23.20 points left. Optimal 127.08 vs. actual 103.88.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Brock Purdy	7.70	Brock Purdy	7.70
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	3.00	Stefon Diggs	22.00
WR	Stefon Diggs	22.00	Kendrick Bourne	19.30
RB	Josh Jacobs	11.30	Josh Jacobs	11.30
RB	Chuba Hubbard	16.00	Chuba Hubbard	16.00
TE	T.J. Hockenson	11.00	Dalton Schultz	16.10
W/R/T	DJ Moore	10.10	Ezekiel Elliott	11.90
W/R/T	Wan'Dale Robinson	14.20	Wan'Dale Robinson	14.20
DEF	49ers	8.58	49ers	8.58

Carried by One Guy: Stefon Diggs, 22.00 points (21.2% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 10 – 16, 2023

Miller

112.91

Rank 6; -1.5 luck points

Big Hut

129.69

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.50 points left. Optimal 121.41 vs. actual 112.91.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Sam Howell	18.34	Sam Howell	18.34
WR	Tyreek Hill	30.30	Tyreek Hill	30.30
WR	Jordan Addison	11.80	Jordan Addison	11.80
RB	Breece Hall	20.30	Breece Hall	20.30
RB	Brian Robinson	13.60	Brian Robinson	13.60
TE	Hunter Henry	1.70	Hunter Henry	1.70
W/R/T	Gabe Davis	3.10	Brandon Aiyuk	11.60
W/R/T	DeVonta Smith	9.40	DeVonta Smith	9.40
DEF	Patriots	4.37	Patriots	4.37

Carried by One Guy: Tyreek Hill, 30.30 points (26.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Raheem Mostert scored 36.20; zeroing that score creates a win.

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 23.48 points left. Optimal 153.17 vs. actual 129.69.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	13.80	Dak Prescott	24.88
WR	Tutu Atwell	4.00	Curtis Samuel	14.20
WR	Zay Flowers	17.10	Zay Flowers	17.10
RB	Raheem Mostert	36.20	Raheem Mostert	36.20
RB	Tony Pollard	17.00	Tony Pollard	17.00
TE	Darren Waller	9.30	Darren Waller	9.30
W/R/T	Cole Kmet	2.90	Isiah Pacheco	15.80
W/R/T	Isiah Pacheco	15.80	Jalin Hyatt	5.10
DEF	Jaguars	13.59	Jaguars	13.59

Carried by One Guy: Raheem Mostert, 36.20 points (27.9% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 10 – 16, 2023

Kev

135.26

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Demich

104.40

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.20 points left. Optimal 149.46 vs. actual 135.26.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	13.24	Matthew Stafford	13.24
WR	Nico Collins	12.00	Amari Cooper	16.80
WR	Drake London	23.50	Drake London	23.50
RB	Alexander Mattison	11.20	Alexander Mattison	11.20
RB	Kendre Miller	2.20	Tyler Allgeier	5.10
TE	Travis Kelce	23.40	Travis Kelce	23.40
W/R/T	Cooper Kupp	29.80	Cooper Kupp	29.80
W/R/T	Puka Nacua	6.60	Josh Downs	13.10
DEF	Ravens	13.32	Ravens	13.32

Carried by One Guy: Cooper Kupp, 29.80 points (22.0% of positive starter points).

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.10 points left. Optimal 106.50 vs. actual 104.40.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Fields	4.92	Justin Fields	4.92
WR	A.J. Brown	22.10	A.J. Brown	22.10
WR	CeeDee Lamb	20.70	CeeDee Lamb	20.70
RB	Jerick McKinnon	5.00	Kenneth Walker	17.90
RB	Kenneth Walker	17.90	Keaontay Ingram	7.10
TE	George Kittle	1.10	George Kittle	1.10
W/R/T	Josh Reynolds	8.00	Josh Reynolds	8.00
W/R/T	Rashid Shaheed	18.68	Rashid Shaheed	18.68
DEF	Dolphins	6.00	Dolphins	6.00

Carried by One Guy: A.J. Brown, 22.10 points (21.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 10 – 16, 2023

Adam

102.73

Rank 10; +2.5 luck points

Josh

88.38

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.30 points left. Optimal 107.03 vs. actual 102.73.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kirk Cousins	8.74	Geno Smith	13.04
WR	Keenan Allen	21.50	Keenan Allen	21.50
WR	Tyler Lockett	15.40	Tyler Lockett	15.40
RB	D'Onta Foreman	7.70	D'Onta Foreman	7.70
RB	Antonio Gibson	8.86	Antonio Gibson	8.86
TE	Kyle Pitts Sr.	14.30	Kyle Pitts Sr.	14.30
W/R/T	Michael Thomas	9.50	Michael Thomas	9.50
W/R/T	Rondale Moore	6.60	Rondale Moore	6.60
DEF	Raiders	10.13	Raiders	10.13

Carried by One Guy: Keenan Allen, 21.50 points (20.9% of positive starter points).

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.10 points left. Optimal 102.48 vs. actual 88.38.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Herbert	19.08	Justin Herbert	19.08
WR	Calvin Ridley	6.60	K.J. Osborn	8.80
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	14.00	Ja'Marr Chase	14.00
RB	David Montgomery	4.30	Kareem Hunt	16.10
RB	Jerome Ford	11.10	Jerome Ford	11.10
TE	Jake Ferguson	2.50	Zach Ertz	4.20
W/R/T	K.J. Osborn	8.80	Javonte Williams	7.20
W/R/T	Joshua Palmer	10.00	Joshua Palmer	10.00
DEF	Jets	12.00	Jets	12.00

Carried by One Guy: Justin Herbert, 19.08 points (21.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Keenan Allen scored 21.50; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 10 – 16, 2023

Krajcik

108.99

Rank 7; -0.5 luck points

Martin

120.13

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.40 points left. Optimal 121.39 vs. actual 108.99.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tua Tagovailoa	22.48	Tua Tagovailoa	22.48
WR	Christian Kirk	13.90	Christian Kirk	13.90
WR	Michael Pittman Jr.	21.90	Michael Pittman Jr.	21.90
RB	Saquon Barkley	13.80	Saquon Barkley	13.80
RB	D'Andre Swift	17.80	D'Andre Swift	17.80
TE	Logan Thomas	1.20	Jonnu Smith	13.60
W/R/T	Odell Beckham Jr.	5.40	Odell Beckham Jr.	5.40
W/R/T	Hollywood Brown	7.40	Hollywood Brown	7.40
DEF	Falcons	5.11	Falcons	5.11

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Tua Tagovailoa, 22.48 points (20.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Adam Thielen scored 30.50; zeroing that score creates a win.

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.16 points left. Optimal 125.29 vs. actual 120.13.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	19.90	Jared Goff	24.42
WR	Adam Thielen	30.50	Adam Thielen	30.50
WR	Davante Adams	4.90	Brandon Powell	5.54
RB	Derrick Henry	19.30	Derrick Henry	19.30
RB	James Cook III	7.10	James Cook III	7.10
TE	Dallas Goedert	9.20	Dallas Goedert	9.20
W/R/T	Robert Woods	7.60	Robert Woods	7.60
W/R/T	Courtland Sutton	14.60	Courtland Sutton	14.60
DEF	Bills	7.03	Bills	7.03

Carried by One Guy: Adam Thielen, 30.50 points (25.4% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 10 – 16, 2023

Nevans

78.65

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

94.14

Rank 11; +3.5 luck points

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.50 points left. Optimal 97.15 vs. actual 78.65.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	C.J. Stroud	14.16	C.J. Stroud	14.16
WR	Deebo Samuel Sr.	1.10	Brandin Cooks	15.00
WR	Terry McLaurin	14.10	Terry McLaurin	14.10
RB	Joe Mixon	9.20	Joe Mixon	9.20
RB	Bijan Robinson	13.00	Bijan Robinson	13.00
TE	Dalton Kincaid	0.00	Dalton Kincaid	0.00
W/R/T	Chris Godwin Jr.	13.70	Chris Godwin Jr.	13.70
W/R/T	Gus Edwards	6.30	Darius Slayton	10.90
DEF	Eagles	7.09	Eagles	7.09

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: C.J. Stroud, 14.16 points (18.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Rhamondre Stevenson scored 18.00; zeroing that score creates a win.

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.20 points left. Optimal 105.34 vs. actual 94.14.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Trevor Lawrence	14.74	Trevor Lawrence	14.74
WR	Jakobi Meyers	17.10	Jakobi Meyers	17.10
WR	Tee Higgins	4.00	Michael Wilson	9.20
RB	Christian McCaffrey	14.20	Christian McCaffrey	14.20
RB	Rhamondre Stevenson	18.00	Rhamondre Stevenson	18.00
TE	Cade Otton	2.50	Cade Otton	2.50
W/R/T	Rachaad White	6.80	Rachaad White	6.80
W/R/T	Emari Demercado	2.70	Jordan Mason	8.70
DEF	Chiefs	14.10	Chiefs	14.10

Carried by One Guy: Rhamondre Stevenson, 18.00 points (19.1% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 10 – 16, 2023

Joe Shore

127.63

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

127.04

Rank 4; -3.5 luck points

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.82 points left. Optimal 144.45 vs. actual 127.63.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	19.34	Patrick Mahomes	19.34
WR	Mike Evans	8.90	Chris Olave	16.60
WR	DK Metcalf	10.90	Jameson Williams	13.30
RB	Travis Etienne Jr.	23.30	Travis Etienne Jr.	23.30
RB	Kyren Williams	23.80	Kyren Williams	23.80
TE	Sam LaPorta	7.60	Sam LaPorta	7.60
W/R/T	Alvin Kamara	17.40	Alvin Kamara	17.40
W/R/T	Austin Ekeler	10.20	Salvon Ahmed	12.40
DEF	Saints	6.19	Lions	10.71

Carried by One Guy: Kyren Williams, 23.80 points (18.6% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.00 points left. Optimal 132.04 vs. actual 127.04.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	13.86	Josh Allen	13.86
WR	Amon-Ra St. Brown	32.40	Amon-Ra St. Brown	32.40
WR	Garrett Wilson	17.00	Garrett Wilson	17.00
RB	Zack Moss	17.90	Zack Moss	17.90
RB	Dameon Pierce	3.40	Dameon Pierce	3.40
TE	Evan Engram	11.10	Evan Engram	11.10
W/R/T	Tyler Boyd	16.80	Tyler Boyd	16.80
W/R/T	Jerry Jeudy	4.40	Kadarius Toney	9.40
DEF	Texans	10.18	Texans	10.18

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Amon-Ra St. Brown, 32.40 points (25.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Kyren Williams scored 23.80; zeroing that score creates a win.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	3–3	2.385	+2.0	+0.154	1 / 1
Miller	3–3	3.462	-1.5	-0.115	0 / 1
Kev	4–2	4.231	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Demich	3–3	2.769	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Krajcik	2–4	2.385	-0.5	-0.038	0 / 1
Big Hut	2–4	2.000	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 0
Adam	3–3	2.462	+2.5	+0.192	1 / 0
Nevans	3–3	1.846	+3.5	+0.269	1 / 0
Josh	2–4	2.692	-5.5	-0.423	0 / 1
Martin	4–2	4.077	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1
Fischer	2–4	1.923	+3.5	+0.269	1 / 0
Joe Shore	5–1	4.769	-1.0	-0.077	1 / 1
Niz	4–2	3.462	-0.5	-0.038	2 / 1
Horgan	2–4	3.538	-5.5	-0.423	1 / 2

2023 week 6 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Niz lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Demich lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Nevans lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Joe Shore lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 6