2023 week 5 · Luck Factor

Regular

Oct 3 – 9, 2023

j-mart

71.60

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

113.50

Rank 9; +1.5 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.10 points left. Optimal 80.70 vs. actual 71.60.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	9.94	Lamar Jackson	9.94
WR	Jaylen Waddle	14.50	Jaylen Waddle	14.50
WR	Tank Dell	8.48	Tank Dell	8.48
RB	Matt Breida	3.40	Justice Hill	12.50
RB	Jonathan Taylor	4.40	Jonathan Taylor	4.40
TE	Mark Andrews	12.50	Mark Andrews	12.50
W/R/T	Allen Lazard	6.30	Allen Lazard	6.30
W/R/T	Rashee Rice	13.30	Rashee Rice	13.30
DEF	Cowboys	-1.22	Cowboys	-1.22

Carried by One Guy: Jaylen Waddle, 14.50 points (19.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 23.60 points left. Optimal 137.10 vs. actual 113.50.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	25.38	Joe Burrow	25.38
WR	Zay Flowers	12.30	Curtis Samuel	18.50
WR	Jayden Reed	1.70	Zay Flowers	12.30
RB	Raheem Mostert	15.80	Raheem Mostert	15.80
RB	Tony Pollard	8.40	Isiah Pacheco	13.40
TE	Darren Waller	16.60	Darren Waller	16.60
W/R/T	Tutu Atwell	8.90	Cole Kmet	15.20
W/R/T	Isiah Pacheco	13.40	Tutu Atwell	8.90
DEF	Packers	11.02	Packers	11.02

Carried by One Guy: Joe Burrow, 25.38 points (22.4% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 3 – 9, 2023

Miller

117.61

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Adam

61.06

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 33.74 points left. Optimal 151.35 vs. actual 117.61.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jordan Love	4.98	Jordan Love	4.98
WR	Tyreek Hill	34.10	Tyreek Hill	34.10
WR	DeVonta Smith	1.60	Jordan Addison	18.40
RB	Breece Hall	30.40	Breece Hall	30.40
RB	Brian Robinson	8.30	Tyjae Spears	17.14
TE	Tyler Higbee	4.00	Tyler Higbee	4.00
W/R/T	Brandon Aiyuk	9.80	Gabe Davis	24.00
W/R/T	Gabe Davis	24.00	Jaleel McLaughlin	17.90
DEF	Patriots	0.43	Patriots	0.43

Carried by One Guy: Tyreek Hill, 34.10 points (29.0% of positive starter points).

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 61.06 vs. actual 61.06.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kirk Cousins	19.86	Kirk Cousins	19.86
WR	Justin Jefferson	5.80	Justin Jefferson	5.80
WR	Calvin Austin III	0.00	Calvin Austin III	0.00
RB	Dalvin Cook	2.30	Dalvin Cook	2.30
RB	Miles Sanders	1.20	Miles Sanders	1.20
TE	Kyle Pitts Sr.	15.70	Kyle Pitts Sr.	15.70
W/R/T	Michael Thomas	10.50	Michael Thomas	10.50
W/R/T	Kalif Raymond	7.50	Kalif Raymond	7.50
DEF	Commanders	-1.80	Commanders	-1.80

Carried by One Guy: Kirk Cousins, 19.86 points (31.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 3 – 9, 2023

Kev

117.93

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik

87.83

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.80 points left. Optimal 126.73 vs. actual 117.93.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Anthony Richardson Sr.	4.42	Anthony Richardson Sr.	4.42
WR	Nico Collins	6.90	Drake London	14.68
WR	Drake London	14.68	Josh Downs	15.70
RB	Alexander Mattison	12.60	Alexander Mattison	12.60
RB	Khalil Herbert	7.60	Khalil Herbert	7.60
TE	Travis Kelce	22.70	Travis Kelce	22.70
W/R/T	Cooper Kupp	21.80	Cooper Kupp	21.80
W/R/T	Puka Nacua	20.10	Puka Nacua	20.10
DEF	Ravens	7.13	Ravens	7.13

Carried by One Guy: Travis Kelce, 22.70 points (19.2% of positive starter points).

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 23.80 points left. Optimal 111.63 vs. actual 87.83.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	19.24	Patrick Mahomes	19.24
WR	Christian Kirk	14.40	Christian Kirk	14.40
WR	Michael Pittman Jr.	10.20	Michael Pittman Jr.	10.20
RB	D'Andre Swift	16.80	D'Andre Swift	16.80
RB	Najee Harris	5.00	Najee Harris	5.00
TE	Jonnu Smith	10.70	Jonnu Smith	10.70
W/R/T	Odell Beckham Jr.	3.30	Logan Thomas	20.70
W/R/T	DeVante Parker	4.00	Nelson Agholor	10.40
DEF	Texans	4.19	Texans	4.19

Carried by One Guy: Patrick Mahomes, 19.24 points (21.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 3 – 9, 2023

Nevans

77.11

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Josh

163.92

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.18 points left. Optimal 93.29 vs. actual 77.11.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	C.J. Stroud	14.16	Russell Wilson	18.74
WR	Deebo Samuel Sr.	11.50	Deebo Samuel Sr.	11.50
WR	Terry McLaurin	8.90	Terry McLaurin	8.90
RB	Joe Mixon	13.40	Joe Mixon	13.40
RB	Bijan Robinson	11.80	Bijan Robinson	11.80
TE	Dalton Kincaid	3.90	Dalton Kincaid	3.90
W/R/T	Brandin Cooks	2.30	DJ Chark	13.20
W/R/T	Gus Edwards	4.80	Darius Slayton	5.50
DEF	Eagles	6.35	Eagles	6.35

Carried by One Guy: C.J. Stroud, 14.16 points (18.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.20 points left. Optimal 171.12 vs. actual 163.92.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	16.88	Matthew Stafford	16.88
WR	Calvin Ridley	22.60	Calvin Ridley	22.60
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	54.20	Ja'Marr Chase	54.20
RB	Samaje Perine	11.50	Samaje Perine	11.50
RB	David Montgomery	22.90	David Montgomery	22.90
TE	Zach Ertz	9.00	Zach Ertz	9.00
W/R/T	Patrick Taylor Jr.	2.70	K.J. Osborn	9.90
W/R/T	Jake Ferguson	5.80	Jake Ferguson	5.80
DEF	Jets	18.34	Jets	18.34

Carried by One Guy: Ja'Marr Chase, 54.20 points (33.1% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 3 – 9, 2023

Martin

153.71

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

138.14

Rank 4; -3.5 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.50 points left. Optimal 162.21 vs. actual 153.71.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	29.32	Jalen Hurts	29.32
WR	Adam Thielen	29.70	Adam Thielen	29.70
WR	Christian Watson	11.60	Christian Watson	11.60
RB	Derrick Henry	9.20	Derrick Henry	9.20
RB	James Cook III	5.10	AJ Dillon	13.60
TE	Dallas Goedert	27.70	Dallas Goedert	27.70
W/R/T	Davante Adams	8.50	Davante Adams	8.50
W/R/T	De'Von Achane	23.50	De'Von Achane	23.50
DEF	Bills	9.09	Bills	9.09

Carried by One Guy: Adam Thielen, 29.70 points (19.3% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.18 points left. Optimal 155.32 vs. actual 138.14.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tua Tagovailoa	18.92	Tua Tagovailoa	18.92
WR	Hollywood Brown	16.10	Hollywood Brown	16.10
WR	Chris Olave	9.20	Chris Olave	9.20
RB	Travis Etienne Jr.	38.40	Travis Etienne Jr.	38.40
RB	Kyren Williams	7.70	Kyren Williams	7.70
TE	Sam LaPorta	19.70	Sam LaPorta	19.70
W/R/T	Alvin Kamara	18.70	Alvin Kamara	18.70
W/R/T	Jameson Williams	2.20	Jameson Williams	2.20
DEF	Lions	7.22	Saints	24.40

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Travis Etienne Jr., 38.40 points (27.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Adam Thielen scored 29.70; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 3 – 9, 2023

Demich

117.63

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

90.78

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.20 points left. Optimal 133.83 vs. actual 117.63.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Fields	32.98	Justin Fields	32.98
WR	A.J. Brown	20.70	A.J. Brown	20.70
WR	CeeDee Lamb	8.90	CeeDee Lamb	8.90
RB	Jerick McKinnon	4.50	Jerick McKinnon	4.50
RB	James Conner	4.60	James Conner	4.60
TE	George Kittle	27.70	George Kittle	27.70
W/R/T	Romeo Doubs	1.40	Josh Reynolds	17.60
W/R/T	Rashid Shaheed	5.60	Rashid Shaheed	5.60
DEF	Dolphins	11.25	Dolphins	11.25

Carried by One Guy: Justin Fields, 32.98 points (28.0% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 19.00 points left. Optimal 109.78 vs. actual 90.78.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Trevor Lawrence	17.70	Trevor Lawrence	17.70
WR	Jahan Dotson	6.00	Zay Jones	11.30
WR	Michael Wilson	2.80	Jahan Dotson	6.00
RB	Christian McCaffrey	13.80	Christian McCaffrey	13.80
RB	Rhamondre Stevenson	2.40	Jordan Mason	12.90
TE	Luke Musgrave	9.40	Luke Musgrave	9.40
W/R/T	Jakobi Meyers	20.50	Jakobi Meyers	20.50
W/R/T	Jaylen Warren	10.90	Jaylen Warren	10.90
DEF	Chiefs	7.28	Chiefs	7.28

Carried by One Guy: Jakobi Meyers, 20.50 points (22.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Justin Fields scored 32.98; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 3 – 9, 2023

Niz

184.27

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

115.06

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.00 points left. Optimal 188.27 vs. actual 184.27.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Brock Purdy	26.08	Brock Purdy	26.08
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	24.00	DeAndre Hopkins	24.00
WR	Stefon Diggs	26.10	Stefon Diggs	26.10
RB	Josh Jacobs	19.90	Ezekiel Elliott	7.80
RB	Cam Akers	3.80	Josh Jacobs	19.90
TE	T.J. Hockenson	10.10	T.J. Hockenson	10.10
W/R/T	DJ Moore	51.00	DJ Moore	51.00
W/R/T	Wan'Dale Robinson	6.90	Wan'Dale Robinson	6.90
DEF	49ers	16.39	49ers	16.39

Carried by One Guy: DJ Moore, 51.00 points (27.7% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 32.10 points left. Optimal 147.16 vs. actual 115.06.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	29.76	Josh Allen	29.76
WR	Jerry Jeudy	11.00	Jerry Jeudy	11.00
WR	Garrett Wilson	8.40	Garrett Wilson	8.40
RB	Kenny Gainwell	3.40	Zack Moss	35.50
RB	Dameon Pierce	9.20	Dameon Pierce	9.20
TE	Evan Engram	6.80	Evan Engram	6.80
W/R/T	Tyler Boyd	9.90	Tyler Boyd	9.90
W/R/T	George Pickens	28.60	George Pickens	28.60
DEF	Broncos	8.00	Broncos	8.00

Carried by One Guy: Josh Allen, 29.76 points (25.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	3–2	2.231	+2.0	+0.154	1 / 1
Miller	3–2	2.846	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Kev	3–2	3.231	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Demich	3–2	2.308	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Krajcik	2–3	1.846	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Big Hut	1–4	1.077	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 0
Adam	2–3	2.154	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Nevans	3–2	1.846	+3.5	+0.269	1 / 0
Josh	2–3	2.615	-5.5	-0.423	0 / 1
Martin	3–2	3.385	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1
Fischer	1–4	1.692	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Joe Shore	4–1	3.923	-1.0	-0.077	1 / 1
Niz	3–2	3.077	-2.0	-0.154	1 / 1
Horgan	2–3	2.769	-2.0	-0.154	1 / 1

2023 week 5 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Krajcik lineup

Regular

Nevans lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Niz lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 5