2023 week 16 · Luck Factor

Consolation

Dec 19 – 25, 2023

j-mart

79.21

Fischer

135.21

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.20 points left. Optimal 90.41 vs. actual 79.21.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	22.58	Lamar Jackson	22.58
WR	Jaylen Waddle	6.20	Jaylen Waddle	6.20
WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	12.10	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	12.10
RB	Devin Singletary	9.30	Devin Singletary	9.30
RB	Jonathan Taylor	10.30	Jonathan Taylor	10.30
TE	Pat Freiermuth	0.00	Gerald Everett	11.20
W/R/T	Alec Pierce	6.00	Alec Pierce	6.00
W/R/T	Rashee Rice	11.70	Rashee Rice	11.70
DEF	Cowboys	1.03	Cowboys	1.03

Carried by One Guy: Lamar Jackson, 22.58 points (28.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.80 points left. Optimal 141.01 vs. actual 135.21.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jake Browning	15.40	Jake Browning	15.40
WR	Jakobi Meyers	7.20	Jakobi Meyers	7.20
WR	Tee Higgins	27.00	Tee Higgins	27.00
RB	Christian McCaffrey	27.10	Christian McCaffrey	27.10
RB	Rachaad White	19.70	Rachaad White	19.70
TE	Kyle Pitts Sr.	13.90	Kyle Pitts Sr.	13.90
W/R/T	Jahan Dotson	5.10	Ty Chandler	7.70
W/R/T	Ty Chandler	7.70	Dontayvion Wicks	10.90
DEF	Falcons	12.11	Falcons	12.11

Carried by One Guy: Christian McCaffrey, 27.10 points (20.0% of positive starter points).

Consolation

Dec 19 – 25, 2023

Krajcik

79.42

Josh

88.01

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.10 points left. Optimal 90.52 vs. actual 79.42.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tua Tagovailoa	15.52	Tua Tagovailoa	15.52
WR	Hollywood Brown	0.00	Jonathan Mingo	1.90
WR	Michael Pittman Jr.	0.00	Parker Washington	3.90
RB	Saquon Barkley	19.40	Saquon Barkley	19.40
RB	Najee Harris	13.80	Najee Harris	13.80
TE	Logan Thomas	14.60	Logan Thomas	14.60
W/R/T	D'Andre Swift	15.20	Jonnu Smith	7.20
W/R/T	Jonathan Mingo	1.90	D'Andre Swift	15.20
DEF	Colts	-1.00	Colts	-1.00

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Saquon Barkley, 19.40 points (24.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Calvin Ridley scored 25.80; zeroing that score creates a win.

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 31.00 points left. Optimal 119.01 vs. actual 88.01.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Herbert	0.00	Justin Herbert	0.00
WR	Calvin Ridley	25.80	Calvin Ridley	25.80
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	0.00	K.J. Osborn	20.50
RB	David Montgomery	14.90	Aaron Jones Sr.	16.50
RB	Jerome Ford	9.30	David Montgomery	14.90
TE	Isaiah Likely	8.60	Trey McBride	9.10
W/R/T	Kareem Hunt	9.60	Javonte Williams	10.90
W/R/T	Javonte Williams	10.90	DeMario Douglas	12.40
DEF	Jets	8.91	Jets	8.91

Carried by One Guy: Calvin Ridley, 25.80 points (29.3% of positive starter points).

Consolation

Dec 19 – 25, 2023

Demich

146.19

Martin

99.82

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.50 points left. Optimal 159.69 vs. actual 146.19.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Fields	24.50	Justin Fields	24.50
WR	A.J. Brown	14.00	A.J. Brown	14.00
WR	CeeDee Lamb	27.20	CeeDee Lamb	27.20
RB	James Conner	22.20	James Conner	22.20
RB	Kenneth Walker	6.60	Kenneth Walker	6.60
TE	George Kittle	21.60	George Kittle	21.60
W/R/T	Rashid Shaheed	18.40	Romeo Doubs	17.90
W/R/T	Chase Brown	4.40	Rashid Shaheed	18.40
DEF	Chargers	7.29	Chargers	7.29

Carried by One Guy: CeeDee Lamb, 27.20 points (18.6% of positive starter points).

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.30 points left. Optimal 114.12 vs. actual 99.82.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	25.44	Jalen Hurts	25.44
WR	Davante Adams	1.40	Adam Thielen	15.40
WR	Courtland Sutton	0.00	Quentin Johnston	5.00
RB	James Cook III	5.00	AJ Dillon	7.20
RB	De'Von Achane	4.10	James Cook III	5.00
TE	Dallas Goedert	14.10	Dallas Goedert	14.10
W/R/T	Adam Thielen	15.40	Derrick Henry	21.38
W/R/T	Derrick Henry	21.38	Tyler Conklin	7.60
DEF	Steelers	13.00	Steelers	13.00

Carried by One Guy: Jalen Hurts, 25.44 points (25.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Playoff

Dec 19 – 25, 2023

Kev

113.90

Joe Shore

144.88

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.74 points left. Optimal 116.64 vs. actual 113.90.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Baker Mayfield	19.82	Kyler Murray	20.40
WR	Tyler Boyd	10.90	Tyler Boyd	10.90
WR	Cooper Kupp	10.90	Cooper Kupp	10.90
RB	Tyler Allgeier	15.80	Tyler Allgeier	15.80
RB	Kyren Williams	18.40	Kyren Williams	18.40
TE	Travis Kelce	9.40	Travis Kelce	9.40
W/R/T	Nico Collins	13.80	Justice Hill	9.06
W/R/T	Drake London	6.90	Nico Collins	13.80
DEF	Texans	7.98	Texans	7.98

Carried by One Guy: Baker Mayfield, 19.82 points (17.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Puka Nacua scored 35.00; zeroing that score creates a win.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 23.28 points left. Optimal 168.16 vs. actual 144.88.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	16.70	Patrick Mahomes	16.70
WR	Chris Olave	25.30	Chris Olave	25.30
WR	Puka Nacua	35.00	Puka Nacua	35.00
RB	Alvin Kamara	8.50	Austin Ekeler	11.60
RB	Travis Etienne Jr.	6.10	Dameon Pierce	13.08
TE	Sam LaPorta	4.80	David Njoku	16.40
W/R/T	Mike Evans	27.60	Mike Evans	27.60
W/R/T	DK Metcalf	15.60	DK Metcalf	15.60
DEF	Bills	5.28	Broncos	6.88

Carried by One Guy: Puka Nacua, 35.00 points (24.2% of positive starter points).

Playoff

Dec 19 – 25, 2023

Nevans

71.54

Niz

78.73

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 55.32 points left. Optimal 126.86 vs. actual 71.54.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Lock	0.00	Russell Wilson	23.52
WR	Brandin Cooks	10.30	Brandin Cooks	10.30
WR	Deebo Samuel Sr.	10.44	Deebo Samuel Sr.	10.44
RB	Joe Mixon	9.00	Gus Edwards	14.00
RB	Bijan Robinson	19.20	Bijan Robinson	19.20
TE	Dalton Kincaid	1.70	Dalton Kincaid	1.70
W/R/T	Chris Godwin Jr.	13.90	Chris Godwin Jr.	13.90
W/R/T	Terry McLaurin	8.00	DJ Chark	27.80
DEF	Saints	-1.00	Eagles	6.00

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Bijan Robinson, 19.20 points (26.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Ezekiel Elliott scored 21.00; zeroing that score creates a win.

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.00 points left. Optimal 80.73 vs. actual 78.73.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Brock Purdy	2.40	Brock Purdy	2.40
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	4.00	Stefon Diggs	7.90
WR	Stefon Diggs	7.90	DJ Moore	4.80
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	21.00	Ezekiel Elliott	21.00
RB	Chuba Hubbard	12.10	Chuba Hubbard	12.10
TE	T.J. Hockenson	9.80	T.J. Hockenson	9.80
W/R/T	DJ Moore	4.80	Tyler Higbee	6.00
W/R/T	Dalton Schultz	14.10	Dalton Schultz	14.10
DEF	49ers	2.63	49ers	2.63

Carried by One Guy: Ezekiel Elliott, 21.00 points (26.7% of positive starter points).

Playoff

Dec 19 – 25, 2023

Miller

148.93

Horgan

176.27

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 26.66 points left. Optimal 175.59 vs. actual 148.93.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jordan Love	23.96	Joe Flacco	26.82
WR	Tyreek Hill	18.90	Tyreek Hill	18.90
WR	Jordan Addison	1.20	Gabe Davis	25.00
RB	Breece Hall	43.10	Breece Hall	43.10
RB	Tyjae Spears	11.70	Tyjae Spears	11.70
TE	Jake Ferguson	8.50	Jake Ferguson	8.50
W/R/T	Brandon Aiyuk	19.30	Brandon Aiyuk	19.30
W/R/T	DeVonta Smith	17.90	DeVonta Smith	17.90
DEF	Bears	4.37	Bears	4.37

Carried by One Guy: Breece Hall, 43.10 points (28.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: George Pickens scored 37.50; zeroing that score creates a win.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.70 points left. Optimal 185.97 vs. actual 176.27.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	24.98	Josh Allen	24.98
WR	Amon-Ra St. Brown	30.60	Amon-Ra St. Brown	30.60
WR	Garrett Wilson	15.80	Garrett Wilson	15.80
RB	Khalil Herbert	21.10	Khalil Herbert	21.10
RB	Chris Rodriguez Jr.	19.50	Chris Rodriguez Jr.	19.50
TE	Evan Engram	17.50	Evan Engram	17.50
W/R/T	Noah Brown	6.80	George Pickens	37.50
W/R/T	George Pickens	37.50	Zamir White	16.50
DEF	Commanders	2.49	Commanders	2.49

Carried by One Guy: George Pickens, 37.50 points (21.3% of positive starter points).

2023 week 16 matchups

Matchups

Consolation

j-mart lineup

Fischer lineup

Consolation

Krajcik lineup

Josh lineup

Consolation

Demich lineup

Martin lineup

Playoff

Kev lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Playoff

Nevans lineup

Niz lineup

Playoff

Miller lineup

Horgan lineup