2022 season ledger
Actual results beside all-play expectation, schedule counterfactuals, weekly receipts, rivalries, and archived player evidence.
Actual and all-play standings
All-play is a score comparison, not a prediction of skill.
| Manager | W–L | PF | Expected wins | Luck points | Luck in wins | Lucky | Unlucky | All-play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 10–4 | 1739.04 | 7.846 | +2.5 | +0.192 | 1 | 0 | 56.0% |
| Demich | 9–5 | 1733.73 | 9.385 | -0.5 | -0.038 | 1 | 2 | 67.0% |
| Miller | 9–5 | 1701.90 | 7.923 | -2.0 | -0.154 | 1 | 1 | 56.6% |
| Niz | 8–6 | 1905.42 | 10.615 | -9.5 | -0.731 | 0 | 3 | 75.8% |
| Joe Shore | 8–6 | 1716.60 | 8.077 | -2.5 | -0.192 | 2 | 3 | 57.7% |
| Krajcik | 8–6 | 1698.82 | 8.000 | -2.5 | -0.192 | 0 | 1 | 57.1% |
| Nevans | 8–6 | 1679.83 | 8.154 | +1.0 | +0.077 | 1 | 3 | 58.2% |
| Adam | 7–7 | 1312.89 | 3.846 | +13.5 | +1.038 | 6 | 1 | 27.5% |
| Josh | 6–8 | 1601.57 | 6.923 | -8.0 | -0.615 | 3 | 3 | 49.5% |
| Big Hut | 5–9 | 1576.43 | 6.923 | -1.0 | -0.077 | 1 | 1 | 49.5% |
| Martin | 5–9 | 1546.79 | 5.923 | -4.0 | -0.308 | 1 | 3 | 42.3% |
| Kev | 5–9 | 1518.93 | 6.000 | -2.5 | -0.192 | 1 | 2 | 42.9% |
| Fischer | 5–9 | 1496.09 | 5.615 | +3.5 | +0.269 | 2 | 1 | 40.1% |
| Horgan | 5–9 | 1258.31 | 2.769 | +12.0 | +0.923 | 4 | 0 | 19.8% |
All-play order
- Niz — 10.615 expected wins; 138–44–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Demich — 9.385 expected wins; 122–60–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Nevans — 8.154 expected wins; 106–76–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Joe Shore — 8.077 expected wins; 105–77–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Krajcik — 8.000 expected wins; 104–78–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Miller — 7.923 expected wins; 103–79–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- j-mart — 7.846 expected wins; 102–80–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Josh — 6.923 expected wins; 90–92–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Big Hut — 6.923 expected wins; 90–92–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Kev — 6.000 expected wins; 78–104–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Martin — 5.923 expected wins; 77–105–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Fischer — 5.615 expected wins; 73–109–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Adam — 3.846 expected wins; 50–132–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Horgan — 2.769 expected wins; 36–146–0 across weekly score comparisons.
Latest weekly receipts
All exact ties share the award.
Robbery of the Week
- JoshRank 4, 128.29 points, lost by 8.55. Open matchup
Get Out of Jail Free
- AdamRank 11, 84.14 points, won by 12.21. Open matchup
Cumulative luck in wins
Normalized before totals are compared across league sizes.
| Manager | W1 | W2 | W3 | W4 | W5 | W6 | W7 | W8 | W9 | W10 | W11 | W12 | W13 | W14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.19 | +0.19 | +0.19 | +0.19 | +0.19 | +0.19 | +0.19 | +0.19 | +0.19 | +0.19 | +0.19 |
| Martin | 0.00 | -0.19 | -0.19 | -0.19 | -0.19 | -0.38 | -0.38 | -0.38 | -0.38 | -0.38 | -0.38 | -0.27 | -0.27 | -0.31 |
| Miller | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.04 | -0.15 | -0.15 | -0.15 | -0.15 | -0.15 |
| Demich | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.04 | -0.04 | -0.04 | -0.04 | -0.08 | -0.04 | -0.04 | -0.04 | -0.04 | -0.04 | -0.04 | -0.04 |
| Krajcik | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.19 | -0.19 | -0.19 |
| Big Hut | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.12 | -0.12 | -0.12 | -0.08 | -0.08 | -0.08 | -0.08 | -0.08 |
| Niz | 0.00 | -0.27 | -0.27 | -0.62 | -0.62 | -0.73 | -0.73 | -0.73 | -0.73 | -0.73 | -0.73 | -0.73 | -0.73 | -0.73 |
| Josh | -0.35 | -0.35 | -0.35 | -0.35 | -0.35 | -0.35 | -0.35 | -0.35 | -0.77 | -0.77 | -0.73 | -0.54 | -0.35 | -0.62 |
| Adam | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.38 | +0.38 | +0.38 | +0.38 | +0.65 | +0.65 | +0.85 | +1.04 | +1.04 | +0.77 | +0.77 | +1.04 |
| Fischer | -0.04 | +0.15 | +0.15 | +0.15 | +0.15 | +0.27 | +0.27 | +0.27 | +0.27 | +0.27 | +0.27 | +0.27 | +0.27 | +0.27 |
| Nevans | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.04 | +0.23 | +0.23 | +0.23 | +0.19 | +0.19 | +0.19 | +0.19 | +0.08 | +0.08 |
| Joe Shore | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.19 | -0.19 | -0.19 | -0.19 | -0.15 | -0.15 | -0.12 | -0.15 | -0.15 | -0.15 | -0.19 | -0.19 |
| Kev | +0.12 | +0.12 | +0.12 | +0.12 | +0.12 | +0.12 | +0.12 | -0.08 | -0.08 | -0.08 | -0.19 | -0.19 | -0.19 | -0.19 |
| Horgan | 0.00 | +0.27 | +0.46 | +0.46 | +0.46 | +0.46 | +0.46 | +0.46 | +0.46 | +0.46 | +0.46 | +0.46 | +0.73 | +0.92 |
Schedule Swap
Each score stays in its original week. Only the schedule owner changes.
| Source team | Best owner | Record | Worst owner | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | j-mart | 10–4 (0.0) | Martin | 6–8 (-4.0) |
| Martin | Miller | 9–5 (+4.0) | Nevans | 3–11 (-2.0) |
| Miller | Krajcik | 10–4 (+1.0) | Fischer | 6–8 (-3.0) |
| Demich | Miller | 11–3 (+2.0) | Horgan | 7–7 (-2.0) |
| Krajcik | j-mart | 9–5 (+1.0) | Horgan | 7–7 (-1.0) |
| Big Hut | j-mart | 9–5 (+4.0) | Fischer | 5–9 (0.0) |
| Niz | j-mart | 12–2 (+4.0) | Niz | 8–6 (0.0) |
| Josh | Fischer | 9–5 (+3.0) | Demich | 3–11 (-3.0) |
| Adam | Adam | 7–7 (0.0) | Demich | 1–13 (-6.0) |
| Fischer | Miller | 9–5 (+4.0) | Kev | 3–11 (-2.0) |
| Nevans | Miller | 11–3 (+3.0) | Fischer | 5–9 (-3.0) |
| Joe Shore | Miller | 11–3 (+3.0) | Martin | 5–9 (-3.0) |
| Kev | Horgan | 9–5 (+4.0) | Nevans | 4–10 (-1.0) |
| Horgan | Miller | 6–8 (+1.0) | j-mart | 0–14 (-5.0) |
Everybody's Super Bowl
Opponent score minus that opponent's mean in other eligible weeks. Each baseline needs two other weeks.
| Manager | Mean excess | Meetings | Largest receipt |
|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | -5.08 pts | 14 | Fischer: +24.65 pts |
| Martin | +3.43 pts | 14 | Big Hut: +51.66 pts |
| Miller | -19.86 pts | 14 | Fischer: +18.69 pts |
| Demich | +5.52 pts | 14 | Miller: +40.14 pts |
| Krajcik | -4.10 pts | 14 | j-mart: +28.66 pts |
| Big Hut | +4.47 pts | 14 | Martin: +35.95 pts |
| Niz | +5.05 pts | 14 | Josh: +51.80 pts |
| Josh | +7.77 pts | 14 | Joe Shore: +86.67 pts |
| Adam | -9.37 pts | 14 | j-mart: +64.47 pts |
| Fischer | +3.87 pts | 14 | Joe Shore: +65.64 pts |
| Nevans | +7.26 pts | 14 | Martin: +36.78 pts |
| Joe Shore | -0.21 pts | 14 | Kev: +61.05 pts |
| Kev | +6.79 pts | 14 | j-mart: +52.22 pts |
| Horgan | -5.55 pts | 14 | Niz: +42.95 pts |
Cupcake Schedule / Murderers' Row
Opponent percentile excludes both the focal team and the opponent. Higher means harder.
| Manager | Difficulty | Games | PA/game |
|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 46.4% | 14 | 108.77 |
| Martin | 55.4% | 14 | 118.06 |
| Miller | 32.1% | 14 | 96.27 |
| Demich | 60.7% | 14 | 119.18 |
| Krajcik | 43.5% | 14 | 110.93 |
| Big Hut | 53.6% | 14 | 118.73 |
| Niz | 53.6% | 14 | 118.45 |
| Josh | 53.6% | 14 | 122.62 |
| Adam | 40.5% | 14 | 107.90 |
| Fischer | 54.8% | 14 | 119.56 |
| Nevans | 57.7% | 14 | 119.60 |
| Joe Shore | 49.4% | 14 | 115.50 |
| Kev | 53.6% | 14 | 119.71 |
| Horgan | 45.2% | 14 | 110.90 |
Heart Attack Club
A close game has a margin of 5.00 points or less, inclusive.
| Manager | Close record | Games | Win-credit rate | Closest win | Closest loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 1–0 | 1 | 100.0% | 0.71 | None |
| Martin | 0–1 | 1 | 0.0% | None | 0.02 |
| Miller | 0–2 | 2 | 0.0% | None | 0.22 |
| Demich | 1–1 | 2 | 50.0% | 1.37 | 0.71 |
| Krajcik | 0–2 | 2 | 0.0% | None | 0.81 |
| Big Hut | 0–2 | 2 | 0.0% | None | 0.36 |
| Niz | 1–1 | 2 | 50.0% | 0.95 | 2.95 |
| Josh | 0–0 | 0 | Not enough history | None | None |
| Adam | 1–1 | 2 | 50.0% | 0.02 | 0.95 |
| Fischer | 1–0 | 1 | 100.0% | 0.36 | None |
| Nevans | 3–0 | 3 | 100.0% | 0.22 | None |
| Joe Shore | 1–0 | 1 | 100.0% | 2.63 | None |
| Kev | 0–0 | 0 | Not enough history | None | None |
| Horgan | 1–0 | 1 | 100.0% | 2.41 | None |
Paper Tiger / Wasted Talent
Actual win-credit rate against all-play win rate. The diagonal means equality.
| Manager | Actual | All-play | Gap | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 71.4% | 56.0% | +15.4 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Martin | 35.7% | 42.3% | -6.6 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Miller | 64.3% | 56.6% | +7.7 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Demich | 64.3% | 67.0% | -2.7 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Krajcik | 57.1% | 57.1% | 0.0 pp | Even |
| Big Hut | 35.7% | 49.5% | -13.7 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Niz | 57.1% | 75.8% | -18.7 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Josh | 42.9% | 49.5% | -6.6 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Adam | 50.0% | 27.5% | +22.5 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Fischer | 35.7% | 40.1% | -4.4 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Nevans | 57.1% | 58.2% | -1.1 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Joe Shore | 57.1% | 57.7% | -0.5 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Kev | 35.7% | 42.9% | -7.1 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Horgan | 35.7% | 19.8% | +15.9 pp | Paper Tiger |
The Roller Coaster
Population standard deviation of weekly all-play percentile. Two weeks required.
| Manager | Volatility | Mean percentile | Weeks |
|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 31.5 pp | 56.0% | 14 |
| Martin | 24.3 pp | 42.3% | 14 |
| Miller | 20.3 pp | 56.6% | 14 |
| Demich | 26.9 pp | 67.0% | 14 |
| Krajcik | 36.5 pp | 57.1% | 14 |
| Big Hut | 23.2 pp | 49.5% | 14 |
| Niz | 26.3 pp | 75.8% | 14 |
| Josh | 31.3 pp | 49.5% | 14 |
| Adam | 22.7 pp | 27.5% | 14 |
| Fischer | 27.0 pp | 40.1% | 14 |
| Nevans | 30.3 pp | 58.2% | 14 |
| Joe Shore | 26.4 pp | 57.7% | 14 |
| Kev | 33.5 pp | 42.9% | 14 |
| Horgan | 19.4 pp | 19.8% | 14 |
Nemesis / Has Their Number
Stable-manager regular-season records. Postseason is kept separate on manager pages.
| Manager | Nemesis | Record | Has Their Number | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | Niz | 0–1 | Adam | 1–0 |
| Martin | Niz | 0–1 | Horgan | 1–0 |
| Miller | Fischer | 0–1 | Krajcik | 2–0 |
| Demich | Miller | 0–1 | Josh | 2–0 |
| Krajcik | Miller | 0–2 | Kev | 1–0 |
| Big Hut | Miller | 0–1 | Niz | 1–0 |
| Niz | Miller | 0–1 | Horgan | 1–0 |
| Josh | Demich | 0–2 | Adam | 1–0 |
| Adam | j-mart | 0–1 | Nevans | 2–0 |
| Fischer | Joe Shore | 0–1 | Adam | 1–0 |
| Nevans | Adam | 0–2 | Horgan | 1–0 |
| Joe Shore | Kev | 0–1 | Josh | 1–0 |
| Kev | Krajcik | 0–1 | Joe Shore | 1–0 |
| Horgan | Niz | 0–1 | Demich | 1–0 |
Archived player statistics
Hindsight lineup using the archived roster and Yahoo-reported position eligibility; not a reconstruction of kickoff-time options.
Tinker Failures
League-wide superlative suppressed because coverage is incomplete. Available team-week receipts remain listed.
| Manager | Points left | Avoidable losses | Receipts |
|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 149.32 | 1 | |
| Martin | 163.55 | 1 | |
| Miller | 183.40 | 3 | |
| Demich | 157.74 | 1 | |
| Krajcik | 236.14 | 1 | |
| Big Hut | 203.50 | 4 | |
| Niz | 194.73 | 2 | |
| Josh | 191.56 | 1 | |
| Adam | 104.36 | 1 | |
| Fischer | 233.28 | 2 | |
| Nevans | 137.69 | 0 | |
| Joe Shore | 99.08 | 1 | |
| Kev | 167.70 | 3 | |
| Horgan | 174.98 | 1 |
Carried by One Guy
| Manager | Leading player | Share | Positive starter points | Receipts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | Saquon Barkley | 13.5% | 1739.04 | 14 weeks
|
| Martin | Cooper Kupp | 13.7% | 1546.79 | 14 weeks
|
| Miller | Jalen Hurts | 20.1% | 1702.50 | 14 weeks
|
| Demich | Justin Jefferson | 18.0% | 1738.47 | 14 weeks
|
| Krajcik | Amon-Ra St. Brown | 12.9% | 1703.02 | 14 weeks
|
| Big Hut | Austin Ekeler | 18.6% | 1581.82 | 14 weeks
|
| Niz | Joe Burrow | 15.6% | 1910.45 | 14 weeks
|
| Josh | Patrick Mahomes | 21.0% | 1601.57 | 14 weeks
|
| Adam | Geno Smith | 10.6% | 1312.89 | 14 weeks
|
| Fischer | Derrick Henry | 17.1% | 1496.09 | 14 weeks
|
| Nevans | Nick Chubb | 14.1% | 1681.32 | 14 weeks
|
| Joe Shore | Christian McCaffrey | 16.0% | 1719.62 | 14 weeks
|
| Kev | Josh Allen | 21.4% | 1518.93 | |
| Horgan | Najee Harris | 12.6% | 1259.45 | 14 weeks
|
Opponent's Final Boss
| Manager | Leading opponent | Damage | Leader encounters | Receipts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | Justin Herbert | 24.85 | 1 | |
| Martin | Cole Kmet | 193.04 | 1 | |
| Miller | Aaron Jones Sr. | 305.40 | 1 | |
| Demich | Joe Burrow | 167.53 | 1 | |
| Krajcik | Justin Jefferson | 217.00 | 1 | |
| Big Hut | Michael Pittman Jr. | 276.44 | 1 | |
| Niz | T.J. Hockenson | 243.23 | 1 | |
| Josh | Justin Jefferson | 280.32 | 2 | |
| Adam | Josh Jacobs | 154.42 | 1 | |
| Fischer | Saquon Barkley | 125.92 | 1 | |
| Nevans | Austin Ekeler | 142.60 | 1 | |
| Joe Shore | Miles Sanders | 73.08 | 1 | |
| Kev | Nick Chubb | 170.95 | 1 | |
| Horgan | Josh Allen | 44.88 | 1 |
Postseason scorecards
Actual participants only. These scores do not enter regular-season luck.