2022 week 17 · Luck Factor

Consolation

Dec 27, 2022 – Jan 3, 2023

Big Hut

129.69

Adam

122.94

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.60 points left. Optimal 139.29 vs. actual 129.69.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Herbert	16.68	Justin Herbert	16.68
WR	DeVonta Smith	22.50	Marvin Jones Jr.	12.10
WR	Drake London	9.70	DeVonta Smith	22.50
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	9.70	Jerick McKinnon	22.60
RB	Austin Ekeler	34.10	Austin Ekeler	34.10
TE	Dawson Knox	0.00	Dawson Knox	0.00
W/R/T	Jerick McKinnon	22.60	James Conner	14.00
W/R/T	James Conner	14.00	Jakobi Meyers	16.90
DEF	Vikings	0.41	Vikings	0.41

Carried by One Guy: Austin Ekeler, 34.10 points (26.3% of positive starter points).

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 22.40 points left. Optimal 145.34 vs. actual 122.94.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Geno Smith	17.12	Geno Smith	17.12
WR	Brandin Cooks	7.90	Brandin Cooks	7.90
WR	Tee Higgins	0.00	Richie James	20.60
RB	Cordarrelle Patterson	20.40	Cordarrelle Patterson	20.40
RB	D'Andre Swift	27.70	D'Andre Swift	27.70
TE	Cole Kmet	10.70	Cole Kmet	10.70
W/R/T	Greg Dortch	5.50	Cam Akers	16.30
W/R/T	Cam Akers	16.30	Jordan Mason	7.30
DEF	Seahawks	17.32	Seahawks	17.32

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: D'Andre Swift, 27.70 points (22.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Austin Ekeler scored 34.10; zeroing that score creates a win.

Consolation

Dec 27, 2022 – Jan 3, 2023

Josh

112.41

Nevans

112.48

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.00 points left. Optimal 120.41 vs. actual 112.41.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	27.52	Patrick Mahomes	27.52
WR	Mike Evans	50.70	Mike Evans	50.70
WR	JuJu Smith-Schuster	4.10	DJ Chark	7.60
RB	Joe Mixon	0.00	David Montgomery	5.60
RB	Isiah Pacheco	12.90	Isiah Pacheco	12.90
TE	Austin Hooper	1.60	Austin Hooper	1.60
W/R/T	Zay Jones	5.40	Zay Jones	5.40
W/R/T	David Montgomery	5.60	Alec Pierce	4.50
DEF	Jets	4.59	Jets	4.59

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Mike Evans, 50.70 points (45.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Tom Brady scored 39.68; zeroing that score creates a win.

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.00 points left. Optimal 127.48 vs. actual 112.48.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	39.68	Tom Brady	39.68
WR	Adam Thielen	2.60	Corey Davis	7.50
WR	Corey Davis	7.50	Courtland Sutton	8.40
RB	Nick Chubb	14.60	Nick Chubb	14.60
RB	Rhamondre Stevenson	7.10	Rhamondre Stevenson	7.10
TE	T.J. Hockenson	12.90	T.J. Hockenson	12.90
W/R/T	Aaron Jones Sr.	15.30	Aaron Jones Sr.	15.30
W/R/T	Garrett Wilson	4.80	Tyler Conklin	14.00
DEF	Buccaneers	8.00	Buccaneers	8.00

Carried by One Guy: Tom Brady, 39.68 points (35.3% of positive starter points).

Playoff

Dec 27, 2022 – Jan 3, 2023

j-mart

87.01

Niz

95.71

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 24.06 points left. Optimal 111.07 vs. actual 87.01.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	14.38	Dak Prescott	14.38
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	0.00	Mike Williams	16.40
WR	Jaylen Waddle	8.20	Jaylen Waddle	8.20
RB	Saquon Barkley	7.30	Latavius Murray	11.20
RB	Tony Pollard	0.00	Saquon Barkley	7.30
TE	Darren Waller	16.20	Darren Waller	16.20
W/R/T	Latavius Murray	11.20	Gerald Everett	10.50
W/R/T	Mike Williams	16.40	Taysom Hill	13.56
DEF	Browns	13.33	Browns	13.33

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Mike Williams, 16.40 points (18.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Davante Adams scored 36.30; zeroing that score creates a win.

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.50 points left. Optimal 106.21 vs. actual 95.71.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	0.00	Joe Burrow	0.00
WR	Davante Adams	36.30	Davante Adams	36.30
WR	Stefon Diggs	0.00	Phillip Dorsett II	4.40
RB	Josh Jacobs	19.50	Josh Jacobs	19.50
RB	J.K. Dobbins	9.30	J.K. Dobbins	9.30
TE	Dallas Goedert	7.50	Dallas Goedert	7.50
W/R/T	Christian Kirk	4.10	Hunter Henry	10.20
W/R/T	Jahan Dotson	6.70	Jahan Dotson	6.70
DEF	Patriots	12.31	Patriots	12.31

Carried by One Guy: Davante Adams, 36.30 points (37.9% of positive starter points).

Playoff

Dec 27, 2022 – Jan 3, 2023

Demich

84.84

Krajcik

110.24

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 31.32 points left. Optimal 116.16 vs. actual 84.84.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Trevor Lawrence	4.48	Gardner Minshew II	12.96
WR	Jerry Jeudy	10.80	Chris Moore	5.10
WR	Justin Jefferson	2.50	Jerry Jeudy	10.80
RB	Michael Carter	2.50	Jamaal Williams	24.70
RB	Kenneth Walker	17.20	Kenneth Walker	17.20
TE	Travis Kelce	11.30	Travis Kelce	11.30
W/R/T	Jamaal Williams	24.70	Diontae Johnson	5.50
W/R/T	Christian Watson	2.10	Isaiah Hodgins	14.20
DEF	Chargers	9.26	Giants	14.40

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Jamaal Williams, 24.70 points (29.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Amari Cooper scored 27.50; zeroing that score creates a win.

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 30.68 points left. Optimal 140.92 vs. actual 110.24.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jared Goff	22.40	Jared Goff	22.40
WR	DK Metcalf	1.30	Amari Cooper	27.50
WR	CeeDee Lamb	23.00	CeeDee Lamb	23.00
RB	Dalvin Cook	6.40	Dalvin Cook	6.40
RB	Zack Moss	7.40	Zack Moss	7.40
TE	Evan Engram	3.90	Juwan Johnson	11.20
W/R/T	Amari Cooper	27.50	Raheem Mostert	24.68
W/R/T	Amon-Ra St. Brown	10.20	Amon-Ra St. Brown	10.20
DEF	Chiefs	8.14	Chiefs	8.14

Carried by One Guy: Amari Cooper, 27.50 points (24.9% of positive starter points).

2022 week 17 matchups

Matchups

Consolation

Big Hut lineup

Adam lineup

Consolation

Josh lineup

Nevans lineup

Playoff

j-mart lineup

Niz lineup

Playoff

Demich lineup

Krajcik lineup