2022 week 16 · Luck Factor

Consolation

Dec 20 – 26, 2022

Josh

85.84

Adam

109.68

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 32.80 points left. Optimal 118.64 vs. actual 85.84.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	23.76	Patrick Mahomes	23.76
WR	Mike Evans	5.90	DJ Chark	16.80
WR	JuJu Smith-Schuster	5.70	Darius Slayton	11.90
RB	Joe Mixon	17.80	Joe Mixon	17.80
RB	Isiah Pacheco	10.38	Isiah Pacheco	10.38
TE	Austin Hooper	4.00	Austin Hooper	4.00
W/R/T	Zay Jones	2.10	David Montgomery	10.40
W/R/T	David Montgomery	10.40	James Cook III	17.80
DEF	Jets	5.80	Jets	5.80

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Patrick Mahomes, 23.76 points (27.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Cam Akers scored 36.70; zeroing that score creates a win.

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 34.80 points left. Optimal 144.48 vs. actual 109.68.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Geno Smith	12.20	Geno Smith	12.20
WR	Mack Hollins	1.70	Brandin Cooks	13.40
WR	Tee Higgins	28.80	Tee Higgins	28.80
RB	Cordarrelle Patterson	4.42	Cordarrelle Patterson	4.42
RB	D'Andre Swift	3.50	Cam Akers	36.70
TE	David Njoku	3.40	Cole Kmet	7.70
W/R/T	Richie James	17.16	Richie James	17.16
W/R/T	Cam Akers	36.70	Greg Dortch	22.30
DEF	Seahawks	1.80	Seahawks	1.80

Carried by One Guy: Cam Akers, 36.70 points (33.5% of positive starter points).

Consolation

Dec 20 – 26, 2022

Big Hut

151.07

Nevans

83.56

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.50 points left. Optimal 158.57 vs. actual 151.07.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Herbert	5.50	Justin Herbert	5.50
WR	DeVonta Smith	33.30	DeVonta Smith	33.30
WR	Drake London	14.60	Drake London	14.60
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	13.10	Ezekiel Elliott	13.10
RB	Austin Ekeler	23.90	Austin Ekeler	23.90
TE	Dawson Knox	12.80	Dawson Knox	12.80
W/R/T	Jerick McKinnon	12.80	James Conner	25.00
W/R/T	James Conner	25.00	Jakobi Meyers	20.30
DEF	Vikings	10.07	Vikings	10.07

Carried by One Guy: DeVonta Smith, 33.30 points (22.0% of positive starter points).

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 35.58 points left. Optimal 119.14 vs. actual 83.56.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	11.34	Aaron Rodgers	13.32
WR	Adam Thielen	1.60	Courtland Sutton	11.40
WR	Corey Davis	3.40	Terry McLaurin	17.70
RB	Nick Chubb	11.20	Aaron Jones Sr.	5.40
RB	Rhamondre Stevenson	3.30	Nick Chubb	11.20
TE	T.J. Hockenson	37.90	T.J. Hockenson	37.90
W/R/T	DeVante Parker	0.00	Tyler Conklin	7.40
W/R/T	Garrett Wilson	5.00	Garrett Wilson	5.00
DEF	Buccaneers	9.82	Buccaneers	9.82

Carried by One Guy: T.J. Hockenson, 37.90 points (45.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Consolation

Dec 20 – 26, 2022

Martin

80.55

Kev

134.19

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 21.02 points left. Optimal 101.57 vs. actual 80.55.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Fields	9.86	Daniel Jones	22.76
WR	Isaiah McKenzie	0.60	DJ Moore	20.10
WR	DJ Moore	20.10	Brandon Aiyuk	13.10
RB	Miles Sanders	6.10	Miles Sanders	6.10
RB	Chuba Hubbard	14.50	Chuba Hubbard	14.50
TE	Mark Andrews	7.50	Mark Andrews	7.50
W/R/T	Travis Homer	0.00	Nyheim Miller-Hines	4.02
W/R/T	Brandon Aiyuk	13.10	Trey McBride	4.70
DEF	Ravens	8.79	Ravens	8.79

Carried by One Guy: DJ Moore, 20.10 points (25.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 24.30 points left. Optimal 158.49 vs. actual 134.19.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	22.98	Josh Allen	22.98
WR	Allen Lazard	11.10	Curtis Samuel	16.40
WR	Hollywood Brown	8.80	Allen Lazard	11.10
RB	Leonard Fournette	25.20	Leonard Fournette	25.20
RB	Alvin Kamara	19.00	Alvin Kamara	19.00
TE	George Kittle	32.00	George Kittle	32.00
W/R/T	Dalton Schultz	7.30	Kenny Gainwell	9.80
W/R/T	Treylon Burks	1.50	Tyler Allgeier	15.70
DEF	Cowboys	6.31	Cowboys	6.31

Carried by One Guy: George Kittle, 32.00 points (23.8% of positive starter points).

Playoff

Dec 20 – 26, 2022

j-mart

145.98

Krajcik

151.79

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 19.30 points left. Optimal 165.28 vs. actual 145.98.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	29.98	Dak Prescott	29.98
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	13.90	Ja'Marr Chase	13.90
WR	Jaylen Waddle	27.30	Jaylen Waddle	27.30
RB	Saquon Barkley	27.30	Saquon Barkley	27.30
RB	Tony Pollard	14.00	Tony Pollard	14.00
TE	Darren Waller	9.80	Taysom Hill	11.60
W/R/T	Latavius Murray	7.00	Mike Williams	11.60
W/R/T	Mike Williams	11.60	D'Onta Foreman	24.50
DEF	Browns	5.10	Browns	5.10

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Dak Prescott, 29.98 points (20.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: CeeDee Lamb scored 36.00; zeroing that score creates a win.

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.36 points left. Optimal 154.15 vs. actual 151.79.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jared Goff	27.70	Jared Goff	27.70
WR	DK Metcalf	15.10	DK Metcalf	15.10
WR	CeeDee Lamb	36.00	CeeDee Lamb	36.00
RB	Raheem Mostert	8.18	Raheem Mostert	8.18
RB	Dalvin Cook	10.70	Dalvin Cook	10.70
TE	Evan Engram	20.30	Evan Engram	20.30
W/R/T	Amari Cooper	13.20	Amari Cooper	13.20
W/R/T	Amon-Ra St. Brown	14.60	Amon-Ra St. Brown	14.60
DEF	Titans	6.01	Chiefs	8.37

Carried by One Guy: CeeDee Lamb, 36.00 points (23.7% of positive starter points).

Playoff

Dec 20 – 26, 2022

Demich

157.45

Niz

95.62

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.60 points left. Optimal 164.05 vs. actual 157.45.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Gardner Minshew II	24.70	Gardner Minshew II	24.70
WR	Justin Jefferson	33.30	Justin Jefferson	33.30
WR	Christian Watson	10.90	Christian Watson	10.90
RB	Jamaal Williams	3.40	Michael Carter	10.00
RB	Kenneth Walker	14.50	Kenneth Walker	14.50
TE	Travis Kelce	19.30	Travis Kelce	19.30
W/R/T	Diontae Johnson	11.40	Diontae Johnson	11.40
W/R/T	Jerry Jeudy	19.70	Jerry Jeudy	19.70
DEF	Chargers	20.25	Chargers	20.25

Carried by One Guy: Justin Jefferson, 33.30 points (21.1% of positive starter points).

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 21.90 points left. Optimal 117.52 vs. actual 95.62.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	25.50	Joe Burrow	25.50
WR	Davante Adams	3.50	Phillip Dorsett II	7.50
WR	Stefon Diggs	4.60	Christian Kirk	5.60
RB	Josh Jacobs	6.00	Josh Jacobs	6.00
RB	J.K. Dobbins	5.90	J.K. Dobbins	5.90
TE	Dallas Goedert	9.70	Dallas Goedert	9.70
W/R/T	Christian Kirk	5.60	Devin Singletary	22.50
W/R/T	Jahan Dotson	19.60	Jahan Dotson	19.60
DEF	Patriots	15.22	Patriots	15.22

Carried by One Guy: Joe Burrow, 25.50 points (26.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Playoff

Dec 20 – 26, 2022

Miller

87.35

Joe Shore

77.34

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.86 points left. Optimal 93.21 vs. actual 87.35.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	0.00	Jalen Hurts	0.00
WR	Tyreek Hill	16.30	Tyreek Hill	16.30
WR	Gabe Davis	11.50	Gabe Davis	11.50
RB	Rachaad White	15.30	Travis Etienne Jr.	14.20
RB	Bam Knight	2.30	Rachaad White	15.30
TE	Pat Freiermuth	13.60	Pat Freiermuth	13.60
W/R/T	Travis Etienne Jr.	14.20	Kadarius Toney	8.16
W/R/T	Brian Robinson	5.80	Brian Robinson	5.80
DEF	49ers	8.35	49ers	8.35

Carried by One Guy: Tyreek Hill, 16.30 points (18.7% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.60 points left. Optimal 94.94 vs. actual 77.34.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tyler Huntley	13.20	Tyler Huntley	13.20
WR	A.J. Brown	18.30	A.J. Brown	18.30
WR	Parris Campbell	3.90	Parris Campbell	3.90
RB	Christian McCaffrey	13.80	Christian McCaffrey	13.80
RB	Dare Ogunbowale	3.30	Jeff Wilson Jr.	11.00
TE	Greg Dulcich	13.90	Greg Dulcich	13.90
W/R/T	DeAndre Hopkins	1.40	Pierre Strong Jr.	3.92
W/R/T	Chris Olave	0.00	Romeo Doubs	7.38
DEF	Eagles	9.54	Eagles	9.54

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: A.J. Brown, 18.30 points (23.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Tyreek Hill scored 16.30; zeroing that score creates a win.

2022 week 16 matchups

Matchups

Consolation

Josh lineup

Adam lineup

Consolation

Big Hut lineup

Nevans lineup

Consolation

Martin lineup

Kev lineup

Playoff

j-mart lineup

Krajcik lineup

Playoff

Demich lineup

Niz lineup

Playoff

Miller lineup

Joe Shore lineup