2022 week 5 · Luck Factor

Regular

Oct 4 – 10, 2022

j-mart

135.26

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Josh

98.04

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.80 points left. Optimal 139.06 vs. actual 135.26.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Zach Wilson	14.60	Zach Wilson	14.60
WR	Mike Williams	25.40	Mike Williams	25.40
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	12.00	Ja'Marr Chase	12.00
RB	Saquon Barkley	19.60	Saquon Barkley	19.60
RB	Tony Pollard	14.60	Tony Pollard	14.60
TE	Darren Waller	0.00	Darren Waller	0.00
W/R/T	Tyler Lockett	29.40	Tyler Lockett	29.40
W/R/T	Jaylen Waddle	5.30	James Cook III	9.10
DEF	Bills	14.36	Bills	14.36

Carried by One Guy: Tyler Lockett, 29.40 points (21.7% of positive starter points).

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.80 points left. Optimal 101.84 vs. actual 98.04.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	30.48	Patrick Mahomes	30.48
WR	Mike Evans	12.10	Mike Evans	12.10
WR	Allen Lazard	13.50	Allen Lazard	13.50
RB	Joe Mixon	11.80	Joe Mixon	11.80
RB	Darrell Henderson Jr.	7.00	Darrell Henderson Jr.	7.00
TE	Zach Ertz	10.80	Zach Ertz	10.80
W/R/T	Corey Davis	5.80	JuJu Smith-Schuster	6.30
W/R/T	JuJu Smith-Schuster	6.30	Samaje Perine	9.60
DEF	Chiefs	0.26	Chiefs	0.26

Carried by One Guy: Patrick Mahomes, 30.48 points (31.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 4 – 10, 2022

Martin

103.16

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Demich

148.28

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 19.37 points left. Optimal 122.53 vs. actual 103.16.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	9.16	Derek Carr	17.94
WR	Cooper Kupp	27.90	Cooper Kupp	27.90
WR	DJ Moore	10.70	DJ Moore	10.70
RB	Miles Sanders	8.40	Miles Sanders	8.40
RB	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	6.50	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	6.50
TE	Mark Andrews	22.90	Mark Andrews	22.90
W/R/T	Nyheim Miller-Hines	1.80	Craig Reynolds	12.20
W/R/T	Brandon Aiyuk	8.80	Brandon Aiyuk	8.80
DEF	Titans	7.00	Ravens	7.19

Carried by One Guy: Cooper Kupp, 27.90 points (27.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.00 points left. Optimal 158.28 vs. actual 148.28.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kirk Cousins	22.24	Kirk Cousins	22.24
WR	Jerry Jeudy	8.30	Justin Jefferson	32.32
WR	Justin Jefferson	32.32	K.J. Osborn	9.10
RB	Melvin Gordon III	13.30	Melvin Gordon III	13.30
RB	Jamaal Williams	5.60	Kenneth Walker	14.80
TE	Travis Kelce	33.50	Travis Kelce	33.50
W/R/T	Diontae Johnson	11.00	Diontae Johnson	11.00
W/R/T	Michael Carter	17.30	Michael Carter	17.30
DEF	Vikings	4.72	Vikings	4.72

Carried by One Guy: Travis Kelce, 33.50 points (22.6% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 4 – 10, 2022

Miller

114.61

Rank 8; +0.5 luck points

Adam

59.06

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.00 points left. Optimal 130.61 vs. actual 114.61.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	27.66	Jalen Hurts	27.66
WR	Tyreek Hill	12.96	Tyreek Hill	12.96
WR	Gabe Davis	34.10	Gabe Davis	34.10
RB	Damien Harris	2.20	Dontrell Hilliard	12.30
RB	Travis Etienne Jr.	14.40	Travis Etienne Jr.	14.40
TE	Pat Freiermuth	3.20	Pat Freiermuth	3.20
W/R/T	Robert Woods	7.70	Robert Woods	7.70
W/R/T	Darnell Mooney	7.20	Rondale Moore	13.10
DEF	Rams	5.19	Rams	5.19

Carried by One Guy: Gabe Davis, 34.10 points (29.8% of positive starter points).

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.20 points left. Optimal 75.26 vs. actual 59.06.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Teddy Bridgewater	0.00	Teddy Bridgewater	0.00
WR	Brandin Cooks	6.00	Brandin Cooks	6.00
WR	Josh Reynolds	15.20	Josh Reynolds	15.20
RB	Rashaad Penny	5.40	Rex Burkhead	4.80
RB	Chase Edmonds	0.10	Rashaad Penny	5.40
TE	David Njoku	14.80	David Njoku	14.80
W/R/T	Tee Higgins	0.00	Mike Boone	11.50
W/R/T	Cam Akers	3.30	Cam Akers	3.30
DEF	Broncos	14.26	Broncos	14.26

Carried by One Guy: Josh Reynolds, 15.20 points (25.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 4 – 10, 2022

Niz

135.29

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

89.10

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 19.94 points left. Optimal 155.23 vs. actual 135.29.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	17.28	Geno Smith	24.02
WR	Davante Adams	29.40	Davante Adams	29.40
WR	Stefon Diggs	26.20	Stefon Diggs	26.20
RB	Josh Jacobs	32.30	Jerick McKinnon	9.20
RB	J.K. Dobbins	4.40	Josh Jacobs	32.30
TE	Dallas Goedert	17.50	Dallas Goedert	17.50
W/R/T	Christian Kirk	2.10	Devin Singletary	5.60
W/R/T	Devin Singletary	5.60	Nico Collins	10.50
DEF	Chargers	0.51	Chargers	0.51

Carried by One Guy: Josh Jacobs, 32.30 points (23.9% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.00 points left. Optimal 103.10 vs. actual 89.10.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	14.76	Lamar Jackson	14.76
WR	Michael Pittman Jr.	10.90	Michael Pittman Jr.	10.90
WR	George Pickens	14.30	George Pickens	14.30
RB	Derrick Henry	29.20	Derrick Henry	29.20
RB	Khalil Herbert	1.10	Antonio Gibson	6.90
TE	Will Dissly	4.10	Will Dissly	4.10
W/R/T	Donovan Peoples-Jones	9.00	Donovan Peoples-Jones	9.00
W/R/T	Elijah Moore	2.10	Jaylen Warren	10.30
DEF	Packers	3.64	Packers	3.64

Carried by One Guy: Derrick Henry, 29.20 points (32.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 4 – 10, 2022

Big Hut

125.97

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Nevans

116.66

Rank 7; -0.5 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 21.40 points left. Optimal 147.37 vs. actual 125.97.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Herbert	14.42	Justin Fields	17.02
WR	Hollywood Brown	21.80	Hollywood Brown	21.80
WR	DeVonta Smith	18.70	DeVonta Smith	18.70
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	7.80	Ezekiel Elliott	7.80
RB	Austin Ekeler	37.90	Austin Ekeler	37.90
TE	Robert Tonyan	6.30	Robert Tonyan	6.30
W/R/T	James Conner	7.30	Jakobi Meyers	26.10
W/R/T	Drake London	7.50	Drake London	7.50
DEF	Saints	4.25	Saints	4.25

Carried by One Guy: Austin Ekeler, 37.90 points (30.1% of positive starter points).

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 116.66 vs. actual 116.66.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	16.88	Aaron Rodgers	16.88
WR	Adam Thielen	6.70	Adam Thielen	6.70
WR	Terry McLaurin	12.60	Terry McLaurin	12.60
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	10.00	Aaron Jones Sr.	10.00
RB	Nick Chubb	27.40	Nick Chubb	27.40
TE	T.J. Hockenson	1.60	T.J. Hockenson	1.60
W/R/T	Courtland Sutton	12.40	Courtland Sutton	12.40
W/R/T	Rhamondre Stevenson	21.50	Rhamondre Stevenson	21.50
DEF	Buccaneers	7.58	Buccaneers	7.58

Carried by One Guy: Nick Chubb, 27.40 points (23.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Austin Ekeler scored 37.90; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 4 – 10, 2022

Joe Shore

107.22

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Kev

165.18

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.24 points left. Optimal 115.46 vs. actual 107.22.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Trevor Lawrence	10.34	Trevor Lawrence	10.34
WR	Deebo Samuel Sr.	11.20	Deebo Samuel Sr.	11.20
WR	A.J. Brown	6.20	A.J. Brown	6.20
RB	Christian McCaffrey	23.40	Christian McCaffrey	23.40
RB	Dameon Pierce	20.30	Dameon Pierce	20.30
TE	Gerald Everett	1.20	Gerald Everett	1.20
W/R/T	Jeff Wilson Jr.	22.20	Jeff Wilson Jr.	22.20
W/R/T	Chris Olave	15.40	Chris Olave	15.40
DEF	Dolphins	-3.02	Eagles	5.22

Carried by One Guy: Christian McCaffrey, 23.40 points (21.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 20.18 points left. Optimal 185.36 vs. actual 165.18.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	37.16	Josh Allen	37.16
WR	DeVante Parker	0.00	Curtis Samuel	12.20
WR	Curtis Samuel	12.20	Chase Claypool	10.00
RB	Leonard Fournette	35.90	Leonard Fournette	35.90
RB	Alvin Kamara	25.40	Alvin Kamara	25.40
TE	George Kittle	7.70	George Kittle	7.70
W/R/T	David Montgomery	18.20	David Montgomery	18.20
W/R/T	Tyler Allgeier	4.50	Eno Benjamin	14.68
DEF	Cowboys	24.12	Cowboys	24.12

Carried by One Guy: Josh Allen, 37.16 points (22.5% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 4 – 10, 2022

Krajcik

157.73

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

87.67

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.78 points left. Optimal 172.51 vs. actual 157.73.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	16.20	Kyler Murray	16.20
WR	Amari Cooper	20.60	Amari Cooper	20.60
WR	CeeDee Lamb	10.30	DK Metcalf	17.80
RB	Dalvin Cook	26.10	Raheem Mostert	21.20
RB	James Robinson	5.90	Dalvin Cook	26.10
TE	Tyler Higbee	11.60	Tyler Higbee	11.60
W/R/T	Raheem Mostert	21.20	Devin Duvernay	13.18
W/R/T	Breece Hall	29.70	Breece Hall	29.70
DEF	49ers	16.13	49ers	16.13

Carried by One Guy: Breece Hall, 29.70 points (18.8% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.40 points left. Optimal 106.07 vs. actual 87.67.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	21.74	Tom Brady	21.74
WR	Chris Godwin Jr.	12.30	Chris Godwin Jr.	12.30
WR	Hunter Renfrow	6.50	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	15.00
RB	AJ Dillon	3.40	Kareem Hunt	14.70
RB	Najee Harris	6.60	Alexander Mattison	7.00
TE	Irv Smith Jr.	8.20	Irv Smith Jr.	8.20
W/R/T	Kareem Hunt	14.70	Evan Engram	12.90
W/R/T	Michael Gallup	8.40	Michael Gallup	8.40
DEF	Jaguars	5.83	Jaguars	5.83

Carried by One Guy: Tom Brady, 21.74 points (24.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	5–0	3.308	+2.5	+0.192	1 / 0
Martin	2–3	2.769	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1
Miller	3–2	2.154	+0.5	+0.038	1 / 0
Demich	3–2	3.000	-0.5	-0.038	0 / 1
Krajcik	4–1	3.769	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Big Hut	2–3	2.769	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Niz	2–3	3.692	-8.0	-0.615	0 / 2
Josh	1–4	2.000	-4.5	-0.346	0 / 1
Adam	2–3	1.077	+5.0	+0.385	2 / 0
Fischer	2–3	1.846	+2.0	+0.154	1 / 1
Nevans	3–2	3.231	-0.5	-0.038	0 / 1
Joe Shore	2–3	2.615	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1
Kev	2–3	1.923	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 0
Horgan	2–3	0.846	+6.0	+0.462	2 / 0

2022 week 5 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Demich lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Niz lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Nevans lineup

Regular

Joe Shore lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 5