2022 week 8 · Luck Factor

Regular

Oct 25 – 31, 2022

j-mart

184.08

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Adam

80.41

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.10 points left. Optimal 184.18 vs. actual 184.08.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	25.40	Dak Prescott	25.40
WR	Tyler Boyd	12.80	Tyler Lockett	15.30
WR	Jaylen Waddle	32.60	Jaylen Waddle	32.60
RB	Saquon Barkley	15.20	Saquon Barkley	15.20
RB	Tony Pollard	35.70	Tony Pollard	35.70
TE	Taysom Hill	8.28	Taysom Hill	8.28
W/R/T	Tyler Lockett	15.30	Latavius Murray	12.90
W/R/T	D'Onta Foreman	33.80	D'Onta Foreman	33.80
DEF	49ers	5.00	49ers	5.00

Carried by One Guy: Tony Pollard, 35.70 points (19.4% of positive starter points).

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.00 points left. Optimal 89.41 vs. actual 80.41.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Geno Smith	19.08	Geno Smith	19.08
WR	Robert Woods	3.40	Brandin Cooks	11.30
WR	Brandin Cooks	11.30	Allen Robinson	10.40
RB	Chase Edmonds	1.40	Darrel Williams	3.40
RB	D'Andre Swift	14.30	D'Andre Swift	14.30
TE	Harrison Bryant	0.00	Harrison Bryant	0.00
W/R/T	Parris Campbell	9.10	Parris Campbell	9.10
W/R/T	Tee Higgins	13.90	Tee Higgins	13.90
DEF	Falcons	7.93	Falcons	7.93

Carried by One Guy: Geno Smith, 19.08 points (23.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 25 – 31, 2022

Miller

125.40

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Niz

86.56

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 28.10 points left. Optimal 153.50 vs. actual 125.40.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	28.40	Jalen Hurts	28.40
WR	Tyreek Hill	33.50	Tyreek Hill	33.50
WR	Darnell Mooney	12.00	Darnell Mooney	12.00
RB	Jonathan Taylor	5.60	Dontrell Hilliard	10.50
RB	Travis Etienne Jr.	27.20	Travis Etienne Jr.	27.20
TE	Pat Freiermuth	9.70	Pat Freiermuth	9.70
W/R/T	Gabe Davis	5.50	Rondale Moore	23.40
W/R/T	Brian Robinson	2.00	Rachaad White	7.30
DEF	Rams	1.50	Rams	1.50

Carried by One Guy: Tyreek Hill, 33.50 points (26.7% of positive starter points).

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 30.50 points left. Optimal 117.06 vs. actual 86.56.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	13.48	Tua Tagovailoa	31.18
WR	Davante Adams	1.20	Davante Adams	1.20
WR	Stefon Diggs	24.80	Stefon Diggs	24.80
RB	Josh Jacobs	7.40	Josh Jacobs	7.40
RB	Devin Singletary	9.30	Devin Singletary	9.30
TE	Dallas Goedert	12.40	Dallas Goedert	12.40
W/R/T	DeVante Parker	0.00	Mike Gesicki	12.80
W/R/T	Christian Kirk	7.50	Christian Kirk	7.50
DEF	Patriots	10.48	Patriots	10.48

Carried by One Guy: Stefon Diggs, 24.80 points (28.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 25 – 31, 2022

Demich

122.06

Rank 8; +0.5 luck points

Big Hut

90.85

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.70 points left. Optimal 127.76 vs. actual 122.06.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jimmy Garoppolo	17.70	Jimmy Garoppolo	17.70
WR	Diontae Johnson	8.50	Jerry Jeudy	18.30
WR	Justin Jefferson	15.80	Justin Jefferson	15.80
RB	Jamaal Williams	22.60	Jamaal Williams	22.60
RB	Kenneth Walker	12.20	Kenneth Walker	12.20
TE	Robert Tonyan	8.50	Robert Tonyan	8.50
W/R/T	Jerry Jeudy	18.30	Melvin Gordon III	14.20
W/R/T	Michael Carter	10.10	Michael Carter	10.10
DEF	Jets	8.36	Jets	8.36

Carried by One Guy: Jamaal Williams, 22.60 points (18.5% of positive starter points).

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 90.85 vs. actual 90.85.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Marcus Mariota	22.42	Marcus Mariota	22.42
WR	Drake London	7.10	Drake London	7.10
WR	Romeo Doubs	16.20	Romeo Doubs	16.20
RB	Rex Burkhead	1.20	Rex Burkhead	1.20
RB	Matt Breida	2.50	Matt Breida	2.50
TE	Cade Otton	3.50	Cade Otton	3.50
W/R/T	Jakobi Meyers	21.00	Jakobi Meyers	21.00
W/R/T	DeVonta Smith	7.36	DeVonta Smith	7.36
DEF	Titans	9.57	Titans	9.57

Carried by One Guy: Marcus Mariota, 22.42 points (24.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 25 – 31, 2022

Krajcik

146.14

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

110.53

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.60 points left. Optimal 149.74 vs. actual 146.14.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	26.64	Kyler Murray	26.64
WR	CeeDee Lamb	18.80	CeeDee Lamb	18.80
WR	Devin Duvernay	18.38	Devin Duvernay	18.38
RB	Raheem Mostert	7.96	Raheem Mostert	7.96
RB	Dalvin Cook	27.10	Dalvin Cook	27.10
TE	Tyler Higbee	3.50	Tyler Higbee	3.50
W/R/T	Amari Cooper	24.10	Amari Cooper	24.10
W/R/T	Amon-Ra St. Brown	13.90	DK Metcalf	17.50
DEF	Jaguars	5.76	Jaguars	5.76

Carried by One Guy: Dalvin Cook, 27.10 points (18.5% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 42.00 points left. Optimal 152.53 vs. actual 110.53.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	21.82	Lamar Jackson	21.82
WR	Michael Pittman Jr.	12.30	Michael Pittman Jr.	12.30
WR	Rashod Bateman	0.00	Donovan Peoples-Jones	12.32
RB	Derrick Henry	37.80	Derrick Henry	37.80
RB	Antonio Gibson	21.52	Antonio Gibson	21.52
TE	Juwan Johnson	3.40	Kyle Pitts Sr.	19.00
W/R/T	Donovan Peoples-Jones	12.32	Khalil Herbert	15.90
W/R/T	George Pickens	0.00	Jaylen Warren	10.50
DEF	Dolphins	1.37	Dolphins	1.37

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Derrick Henry, 37.80 points (34.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 25 – 31, 2022

Nevans

136.55

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Kev

129.88

Rank 5; -2.5 luck points

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 34.34 points left. Optimal 170.89 vs. actual 136.55.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	15.22	Aaron Rodgers	15.22
WR	Adam Thielen	12.70	Adam Thielen	12.70
WR	Terry McLaurin	18.60	Terry McLaurin	18.60
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	21.70	Aaron Jones Sr.	21.70
RB	Nick Chubb	27.40	Nick Chubb	27.40
TE	T.J. Hockenson	11.00	Tyler Conklin	25.90
W/R/T	Courtland Sutton	2.30	Rhamondre Stevenson	21.30
W/R/T	Rhamondre Stevenson	21.30	Garrett Wilson	19.50
DEF	Buccaneers	6.33	Broncos	8.57

Carried by One Guy: Nick Chubb, 27.40 points (20.1% of positive starter points).

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 22.94 points left. Optimal 152.82 vs. actual 129.88.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	17.62	Josh Allen	17.62
WR	Curtis Samuel	10.90	Curtis Samuel	10.90
WR	Wan'Dale Robinson	3.50	Chase Claypool	12.54
RB	Leonard Fournette	14.80	Leonard Fournette	14.80
RB	Alvin Kamara	42.80	Alvin Kamara	42.80
TE	George Kittle	12.90	George Kittle	12.90
W/R/T	David Montgomery	8.50	Dalton Schultz	13.40
W/R/T	Eno Benjamin	8.50	Tyler Allgeier	17.50
DEF	Cowboys	10.36	Cowboys	10.36

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Alvin Kamara, 42.80 points (33.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Nick Chubb scored 27.40; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 25 – 31, 2022

Josh

88.49

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

203.09

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 88.49 vs. actual 88.49.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Malik Willis	1.40	Malik Willis	1.40
WR	Mike Evans	20.30	Mike Evans	20.30
WR	Alec Pierce	9.50	Alec Pierce	9.50
RB	Joe Mixon	12.90	Joe Mixon	12.90
RB	Darrell Henderson Jr.	5.00	Darrell Henderson Jr.	5.00
TE	Zach Ertz	13.40	Zach Ertz	13.40
W/R/T	Hayden Hurst	8.20	Hayden Hurst	8.20
W/R/T	Darius Slayton	11.60	Darius Slayton	11.60
DEF	Colts	6.19	Colts	6.19

Carried by One Guy: Mike Evans, 20.30 points (22.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 203.09 vs. actual 203.09.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kirk Cousins	23.48	Kirk Cousins	23.48
WR	Julio Jones	10.10	Julio Jones	10.10
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	35.90	DeAndre Hopkins	35.90
RB	Christian McCaffrey	40.26	Christian McCaffrey	40.26
RB	Dameon Pierce	14.10	Dameon Pierce	14.10
TE	Greg Dulcich	12.70	Greg Dulcich	12.70
W/R/T	A.J. Brown	41.60	A.J. Brown	41.60
W/R/T	Chris Olave	10.20	Chris Olave	10.20
DEF	Eagles	14.75	Eagles	14.75

Carried by One Guy: A.J. Brown, 41.60 points (20.5% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 25 – 31, 2022

Martin

122.87

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

67.29

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.54 points left. Optimal 137.41 vs. actual 122.87.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Derek Carr	1.94	Russell Wilson	13.78
WR	Cooper Kupp	22.90	Cooper Kupp	22.90
WR	DJ Moore	29.50	DJ Moore	29.50
RB	Nyheim Miller-Hines	12.90	Nyheim Miller-Hines	12.90
RB	Miles Sanders	13.80	Miles Sanders	13.80
TE	Mark Andrews	6.30	Dawson Knox	9.00
W/R/T	Isaiah McKenzie	9.44	Isaiah McKenzie	9.44
W/R/T	Brandon Aiyuk	20.10	Brandon Aiyuk	20.10
DEF	Ravens	5.99	Ravens	5.99

Carried by One Guy: DJ Moore, 29.50 points (24.0% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 37.06 points left. Optimal 104.35 vs. actual 67.29.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Daniel Jones	9.04	Tom Brady	19.10
WR	Chris Godwin Jr.	13.50	Chris Godwin Jr.	13.50
WR	Michael Gallup	8.90	Michael Gallup	8.90
RB	AJ Dillon	7.30	AJ Dillon	7.30
RB	Najee Harris	11.96	Najee Harris	11.96
TE	Irv Smith Jr.	6.80	Evan Engram	15.50
W/R/T	Sammy Watkins	1.30	Kareem Hunt	11.20
W/R/T	Hunter Renfrow	1.60	Alexander Mattison	10.00
DEF	Bills	6.89	Bills	6.89

Carried by One Guy: Chris Godwin Jr., 13.50 points (20.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	8–0	5.769	+2.5	+0.192	1 / 0
Martin	3–5	4.154	-5.0	-0.385	0 / 2
Miller	5–3	4.077	+0.5	+0.038	1 / 0
Demich	4–4	4.462	-0.5	-0.038	1 / 2
Krajcik	5–3	4.846	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Big Hut	2–6	4.000	-1.5	-0.115	0 / 1
Niz	3–5	5.385	-9.5	-0.731	0 / 3
Josh	3–5	4.000	-4.5	-0.346	0 / 1
Adam	3–5	1.462	+8.5	+0.654	3 / 0
Fischer	3–5	2.923	+3.5	+0.269	2 / 1
Nevans	6–2	4.923	+3.0	+0.231	1 / 1
Joe Shore	5–3	4.846	-2.0	-0.154	1 / 1
Kev	4–4	4.308	-1.0	-0.077	1 / 1
Horgan	2–6	0.846	+6.0	+0.462	2 / 0

2022 week 8 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Niz lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Nevans lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 8