2022 week 14 · Luck Factor

Regular

Dec 6 – 12, 2022

j-mart

107.35

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

129.75

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 34.60 points left. Optimal 141.95 vs. actual 107.35.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	13.66	Dak Prescott	13.66
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	30.50	Mike Williams	25.60
WR	Jaylen Waddle	5.10	Ja'Marr Chase	30.50
RB	Saquon Barkley	6.80	D'Onta Foreman	8.50
RB	Tony Pollard	22.20	Tony Pollard	22.20
TE	Gerald Everett	7.80	Gerald Everett	7.80
W/R/T	Tyler Lockett	17.00	Tyler Lockett	17.00
W/R/T	Tyler Boyd	0.00	Van Jefferson	12.40
DEF	Steelers	4.29	Steelers	4.29

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Ja'Marr Chase, 30.50 points (28.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Kirk Cousins scored 27.00; zeroing that score creates a win.

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.10 points left. Optimal 140.85 vs. actual 129.75.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kirk Cousins	27.00	Kirk Cousins	27.00
WR	Donovan Peoples-Jones	21.70	Donovan Peoples-Jones	21.70
WR	George Pickens	10.80	George Pickens	10.80
RB	Derrick Henry	22.50	Derrick Henry	22.50
RB	Dameon Pierce	11.80	Dameon Pierce	11.80
TE	Foster Moreau	0.00	Chig Okonkwo	18.50
W/R/T	Joshua Palmer	9.30	Joshua Palmer	9.30
W/R/T	Chig Okonkwo	18.50	Jameson Williams	11.10
DEF	Raiders	8.15	Raiders	8.15

Carried by One Guy: Kirk Cousins, 27.00 points (20.8% of positive starter points).

Regular

Dec 6 – 12, 2022

Martin

111.63

Rank 7; -0.5 luck points

Big Hut

160.57

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.30 points left. Optimal 121.93 vs. actual 111.63.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Daniel Jones	19.36	Daniel Jones	19.36
WR	Isaiah McKenzie	5.80	Julio Jones	8.80
WR	DJ Moore	0.60	Isaiah McKenzie	5.80
RB	Miles Sanders	30.50	Miles Sanders	30.50
RB	Chuba Hubbard	18.90	Chuba Hubbard	18.90
TE	Mark Andrews	3.70	Trey McBride	5.80
W/R/T	Travis Homer	5.40	Travis Homer	5.40
W/R/T	Brandon Aiyuk	13.70	Brandon Aiyuk	13.70
DEF	Ravens	13.67	Ravens	13.67

Carried by One Guy: Miles Sanders, 30.50 points (27.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 160.57 vs. actual 160.57.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Herbert	21.48	Justin Herbert	21.48
WR	Demarcus Robinson	10.20	Demarcus Robinson	10.20
WR	DeVonta Smith	17.40	DeVonta Smith	17.40
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	17.10	Ezekiel Elliott	17.10
RB	Austin Ekeler	24.40	Austin Ekeler	24.40
TE	Dawson Knox	14.10	Dawson Knox	14.10
W/R/T	Jerick McKinnon	34.40	Jerick McKinnon	34.40
W/R/T	James Conner	23.40	James Conner	23.40
DEF	Vikings	-1.91	Vikings	-1.91

Carried by One Guy: Jerick McKinnon, 34.40 points (21.2% of positive starter points).

Regular

Dec 6 – 12, 2022

Miller

125.45

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik

59.56

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 125.45 vs. actual 125.45.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	30.38	Jalen Hurts	30.38
WR	Tyreek Hill	24.10	Tyreek Hill	24.10
WR	Gabe Davis	6.10	Gabe Davis	6.10
RB	Travis Etienne Jr.	3.20	Travis Etienne Jr.	3.20
RB	Rachaad White	10.70	Rachaad White	10.70
TE	Pat Freiermuth	12.30	Pat Freiermuth	12.30
W/R/T	Elijah Moore	12.00	Elijah Moore	12.00
W/R/T	Bam Knight	15.70	Bam Knight	15.70
DEF	49ers	10.97	49ers	10.97

Carried by One Guy: Jalen Hurts, 30.38 points (24.2% of positive starter points).

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 65.54 points left. Optimal 125.10 vs. actual 59.56.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	0.66	Jared Goff	28.10
WR	DK Metcalf	18.10	DK Metcalf	18.10
WR	CeeDee Lamb	8.30	CeeDee Lamb	8.30
RB	Raheem Mostert	5.40	Raheem Mostert	5.40
RB	Dalvin Cook	8.60	Dalvin Cook	8.60
TE	Tyler Higbee	3.10	Evan Engram	41.20
W/R/T	Amari Cooper	6.20	Amari Cooper	6.20
W/R/T	Amon-Ra St. Brown	13.40	Amon-Ra St. Brown	13.40
DEF	Titans	-4.20	Titans	-4.20

Carried by One Guy: DK Metcalf, 18.10 points (28.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Dec 6 – 12, 2022

Demich

136.84

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Josh

128.29

Rank 4; -3.5 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.00 points left. Optimal 141.84 vs. actual 136.84.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Mike White	10.72	Mike White	10.72
WR	Diontae Johnson	14.20	Diontae Johnson	14.20
WR	Justin Jefferson	35.30	Justin Jefferson	35.30
RB	Jamaal Williams	3.70	Jamaal Williams	3.70
RB	Michael Carter	3.00	Joshua Kelley	4.50
TE	Travis Kelce	11.10	Travis Kelce	11.10
W/R/T	Jerry Jeudy	33.30	Jerry Jeudy	33.30
W/R/T	Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	11.30	K.J. Osborn	14.80
DEF	Chiefs	14.22	Chiefs	14.22

Carried by One Guy: Justin Jefferson, 35.30 points (25.8% of positive starter points).

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.20 points left. Optimal 131.49 vs. actual 128.29.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	21.78	Patrick Mahomes	21.78
WR	Mike Evans	8.40	Mike Evans	8.40
WR	JuJu Smith-Schuster	22.40	JuJu Smith-Schuster	22.40
RB	Joe Mixon	12.60	Joe Mixon	12.60
RB	Isiah Pacheco	12.30	Isiah Pacheco	12.30
TE	Austin Hooper	11.80	Austin Hooper	11.80
W/R/T	Zay Jones	21.70	Zay Jones	21.70
W/R/T	Darius Slayton	6.20	Samaje Perine	9.40
DEF	Jets	11.11	Jets	11.11

Carried by One Guy: JuJu Smith-Schuster, 22.40 points (17.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Justin Jefferson scored 35.30; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Dec 6 – 12, 2022

Adam

84.14

Rank 11; +3.5 luck points

Nevans

71.93

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.26 points left. Optimal 92.40 vs. actual 84.14.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Geno Smith	20.56	Geno Smith	20.56
WR	Mack Hollins	8.20	Mack Hollins	8.20
WR	Tee Higgins	0.00	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	3.00
RB	D'Andre Swift	6.90	D'Andre Swift	6.90
RB	Cam Akers	9.30	Cam Akers	9.30
TE	David Njoku	18.70	David Njoku	18.70
W/R/T	Richie James	19.10	Richie James	19.10
W/R/T	Greg Dortch	0.34	Jordan Mason	5.60
DEF	Seahawks	1.04	Seahawks	1.04

Carried by One Guy: Geno Smith, 20.56 points (24.4% of positive starter points).

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.30 points left. Optimal 77.23 vs. actual 71.93.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	10.12	Tom Brady	10.12
WR	Adam Thielen	19.50	Adam Thielen	19.50
WR	Corey Davis	2.50	DeVante Parker	4.40
RB	Nick Chubb	8.40	Nick Chubb	8.40
RB	Rhamondre Stevenson	3.00	Rhamondre Stevenson	3.00
TE	T.J. Hockenson	11.70	T.J. Hockenson	11.70
W/R/T	DeVante Parker	4.40	Tyler Conklin	7.80
W/R/T	Garrett Wilson	13.80	Garrett Wilson	13.80
DEF	Buccaneers	-1.49	Buccaneers	-1.49

Carried by One Guy: Adam Thielen, 19.50 points (26.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Geno Smith scored 20.56; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Dec 6 – 12, 2022

Niz

91.90

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

126.88

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.20 points left. Optimal 108.10 vs. actual 91.90.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	16.56	Joe Burrow	16.56
WR	Davante Adams	10.10	Davante Adams	10.10
WR	Stefon Diggs	6.70	Stefon Diggs	6.70
RB	Josh Jacobs	19.40	Josh Jacobs	19.40
RB	Devin Singletary	5.30	Devin Singletary	5.30
TE	Mike Gesicki	0.00	Mike Gesicki	0.00
W/R/T	Phillip Dorsett II	3.80	Christian Kirk	9.50
W/R/T	Christian Kirk	9.50	J.K. Dobbins	20.00
DEF	Patriots	20.54	Patriots	20.54

Carried by One Guy: Patriots, 20.54 points (22.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 126.88 vs. actual 126.88.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tyler Huntley	6.62	Tyler Huntley	6.62
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	12.90	DeAndre Hopkins	12.90
WR	A.J. Brown	17.00	A.J. Brown	17.00
RB	Christian McCaffrey	31.30	Christian McCaffrey	31.30
RB	Jeff Wilson Jr.	2.60	Jeff Wilson Jr.	2.60
TE	Greg Dulcich	7.20	Greg Dulcich	7.20
W/R/T	Chris Moore	24.40	Chris Moore	24.40
W/R/T	Deebo Samuel Sr.	14.40	Deebo Samuel Sr.	14.40
DEF	Eagles	10.46	Eagles	10.46

Carried by One Guy: Christian McCaffrey, 31.30 points (24.7% of positive starter points).

Regular

Dec 6 – 12, 2022

Kev

78.84

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

91.76

Rank 10; +2.5 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 78.84 vs. actual 78.84.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	20.58	Josh Allen	20.58
WR	Robert Woods	9.90	Robert Woods	9.90
WR	Hollywood Brown	7.40	Hollywood Brown	7.40
RB	Leonard Fournette	10.60	Leonard Fournette	10.60
RB	Kenny Gainwell	1.00	Kenny Gainwell	1.00
TE	George Kittle	6.80	George Kittle	6.80
W/R/T	Matt Breida	3.50	Matt Breida	3.50
W/R/T	Dalton Schultz	14.70	Dalton Schultz	14.70
DEF	Cowboys	4.36	Cowboys	4.36

Carried by One Guy: Josh Allen, 20.58 points (26.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Keenan Allen scored 21.20; zeroing that score creates a win.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.70 points left. Optimal 92.46 vs. actual 91.76.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Deshaun Watson	16.34	Deshaun Watson	16.34
WR	Keenan Allen	21.20	Keenan Allen	21.20
WR	Chris Godwin Jr.	10.40	Chris Godwin Jr.	10.40
RB	Kareem Hunt	3.20	Najee Harris	13.00
RB	Najee Harris	13.00	Kyren Williams	3.90
TE	Noah Fant	0.00	Noah Fant	0.00
W/R/T	Michael Gallup	6.00	Michael Gallup	6.00
W/R/T	Kendall Hinton	8.80	Kendall Hinton	8.80
DEF	Bills	12.82	Bills	12.82

Carried by One Guy: Keenan Allen, 21.20 points (23.1% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	10–4	7.846	+2.5	+0.192	1 / 0
Martin	5–9	5.923	-4.0	-0.308	1 / 3
Miller	9–5	7.923	-2.0	-0.154	1 / 1
Demich	9–5	9.385	-0.5	-0.038	1 / 2
Krajcik	8–6	8.000	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1
Big Hut	5–9	6.923	-1.0	-0.077	1 / 1
Niz	8–6	10.615	-9.5	-0.731	0 / 3
Josh	6–8	6.923	-8.0	-0.615	3 / 3
Adam	7–7	3.846	+13.5	+1.038	6 / 1
Fischer	5–9	5.615	+3.5	+0.269	2 / 1
Nevans	8–6	8.154	+1.0	+0.077	1 / 3
Joe Shore	8–6	8.077	-2.5	-0.192	2 / 3
Kev	5–9	6.000	-2.5	-0.192	1 / 2
Horgan	5–9	2.769	+12.0	+0.923	4 / 0

2022 week 14 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Krajcik lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Nevans lineup

Regular

Niz lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 14