2022 week 11 · Luck Factor

Regular

Nov 15 – 21, 2022

j-mart

93.31

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Niz

150.94

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.80 points left. Optimal 108.11 vs. actual 93.31.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	20.64	Dak Prescott	20.64
WR	Tyler Boyd	6.20	Tyler Boyd	6.20
WR	Van Jefferson	7.10	Van Jefferson	7.10
RB	Saquon Barkley	5.50	Saquon Barkley	5.50
RB	Tony Pollard	38.90	Tony Pollard	38.90
TE	Isaiah Likely	1.10	Isaiah Likely	1.10
W/R/T	Mike Williams	2.50	Latavius Murray	17.20
W/R/T	D'Onta Foreman	2.40	Mike Williams	2.50
DEF	Raiders	8.97	Raiders	8.97

Carried by One Guy: Tony Pollard, 38.90 points (41.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 150.94 vs. actual 150.94.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	28.70	Joe Burrow	28.70
WR	Davante Adams	35.10	Davante Adams	35.10
WR	Stefon Diggs	14.80	Stefon Diggs	14.80
RB	Josh Jacobs	21.00	Josh Jacobs	21.00
RB	Devin Singletary	17.70	Devin Singletary	17.70
TE	Hunter Henry	3.00	Hunter Henry	3.00
W/R/T	Nico Collins	9.80	Nico Collins	9.80
W/R/T	Jahan Dotson	2.60	Jahan Dotson	2.60
DEF	Patriots	18.24	Patriots	18.24

Carried by One Guy: Davante Adams, 35.10 points (23.3% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 15 – 21, 2022

Martin

87.03

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik

102.50

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.90 points left. Optimal 87.93 vs. actual 87.03.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Fields	22.62	Justin Fields	22.62
WR	Isaiah McKenzie	0.00	DJ Moore	5.40
WR	DJ Moore	5.40	Brandon Aiyuk	16.00
RB	Nyheim Miller-Hines	2.46	Nyheim Miller-Hines	2.46
RB	Miles Sanders	5.80	Miles Sanders	5.80
TE	Mark Andrews	12.30	Mark Andrews	12.30
W/R/T	Brandon Aiyuk	16.00	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	0.90
W/R/T	Trey McBride	5.40	Trey McBride	5.40
DEF	Ravens	17.05	Ravens	17.05

Carried by One Guy: Justin Fields, 22.62 points (26.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Amari Cooper scored 33.30; zeroing that score creates a win.

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.90 points left. Optimal 112.40 vs. actual 102.50.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jared Goff	6.50	Jared Goff	6.50
WR	CeeDee Lamb	9.50	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	2.80
WR	Devin Duvernay	1.80	CeeDee Lamb	9.50
RB	Dalvin Cook	7.20	Dalvin Cook	7.20
RB	James Robinson	1.00	Matt Breida	9.90
TE	Tyler Higbee	8.50	Tyler Higbee	8.50
W/R/T	Amari Cooper	33.30	Amari Cooper	33.30
W/R/T	Amon-Ra St. Brown	15.00	Amon-Ra St. Brown	15.00
DEF	Commanders	19.70	Commanders	19.70

Carried by One Guy: Amari Cooper, 33.30 points (32.5% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 15 – 21, 2022

Miller

97.53

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

124.22

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.90 points left. Optimal 109.43 vs. actual 97.53.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	24.20	Jalen Hurts	24.20
WR	Gabe Davis	11.80	Gabe Davis	11.80
WR	Darnell Mooney	12.90	Darnell Mooney	12.90
RB	Jonathan Taylor	16.40	Jonathan Taylor	16.40
RB	Brian Robinson	5.70	Brian Robinson	5.70
TE	Pat Freiermuth	15.90	Pat Freiermuth	15.90
W/R/T	Kadarius Toney	0.10	Damien Harris	11.30
W/R/T	Rondale Moore	-0.60	Kadarius Toney	0.10
DEF	49ers	11.13	49ers	11.13

Carried by One Guy: Jalen Hurts, 24.20 points (24.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Joshua Palmer scored 32.60; zeroing that score creates a win.

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.80 points left. Optimal 134.02 vs. actual 124.22.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kirk Cousins	2.20	Kirk Cousins	2.20
WR	Donovan Peoples-Jones	17.10	Donovan Peoples-Jones	17.10
WR	George Pickens	18.30	George Pickens	18.30
RB	Derrick Henry	25.36	Derrick Henry	25.36
RB	Dameon Pierce	3.70	Antonio Gibson	14.26
TE	Foster Moreau	4.30	Foster Moreau	4.30
W/R/T	Antonio Gibson	14.26	Michael Pittman Jr.	13.50
W/R/T	Joshua Palmer	32.60	Joshua Palmer	32.60
DEF	Saints	6.40	Saints	6.40

Carried by One Guy: Joshua Palmer, 32.60 points (26.2% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 15 – 21, 2022

Josh

102.34

Rank 8; +0.5 luck points

Nevans

94.16

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 35.10 points left. Optimal 137.44 vs. actual 102.34.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	29.46	Patrick Mahomes	29.46
WR	DJ Chark	0.00	Darius Slayton	13.60
WR	Darius Slayton	13.60	Alec Pierce	5.80
RB	Joe Mixon	9.20	Joe Mixon	9.20
RB	David Montgomery	21.10	David Montgomery	21.10
TE	Hayden Hurst	4.80	Hayden Hurst	4.80
W/R/T	Darrell Henderson Jr.	0.90	Samaje Perine	30.20
W/R/T	Isiah Pacheco	12.70	Isiah Pacheco	12.70
DEF	Jets	10.58	Jets	10.58

Carried by One Guy: Patrick Mahomes, 29.46 points (28.8% of positive starter points).

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 94.16 vs. actual 94.16.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	19.08	Aaron Rodgers	19.08
WR	Adam Thielen	4.50	Adam Thielen	4.50
WR	Terry McLaurin	9.60	Terry McLaurin	9.60
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	14.00	Aaron Jones Sr.	14.00
RB	Nick Chubb	9.70	Nick Chubb	9.70
TE	T.J. Hockenson	8.40	T.J. Hockenson	8.40
W/R/T	Courtland Sutton	13.00	Courtland Sutton	13.00
W/R/T	Rhamondre Stevenson	14.20	Rhamondre Stevenson	14.20
DEF	Broncos	1.68	Broncos	1.68

Carried by One Guy: Aaron Rodgers, 19.08 points (20.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Patrick Mahomes scored 29.46; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 15 – 21, 2022

Adam

92.94

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

121.69

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.60 points left. Optimal 105.54 vs. actual 92.94.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Taylor Heinicke	7.84	Taylor Heinicke	7.84
WR	Brandin Cooks	10.00	Brandin Cooks	10.00
WR	Allen Robinson	14.70	Allen Robinson	14.70
RB	Cordarrelle Patterson	15.84	Cordarrelle Patterson	15.84
RB	D'Andre Swift	12.20	D'Andre Swift	12.20
TE	David Njoku	3.70	Cole Kmet	6.50
W/R/T	Tee Higgins	25.80	Mack Hollins	11.20
W/R/T	Ben Skowronek	1.40	Tee Higgins	25.80
DEF	Bengals	1.46	Bengals	1.46

Carried by One Guy: Tee Higgins, 25.80 points (27.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.70 points left. Optimal 135.39 vs. actual 121.69.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	15.46	Lamar Jackson	15.46
WR	A.J. Brown	9.00	Greg Dortch	21.60
WR	Chris Olave	23.20	Chris Olave	23.20
RB	Christian McCaffrey	17.60	Christian McCaffrey	17.60
RB	Trestan Ebner	0.80	Keaontay Ingram	1.90
TE	Greg Dulcich	7.00	Greg Dulcich	7.00
W/R/T	DeAndre Hopkins	18.10	DeAndre Hopkins	18.10
W/R/T	Deebo Samuel Sr.	22.40	Deebo Samuel Sr.	22.40
DEF	Eagles	8.13	Eagles	8.13

Carried by One Guy: Chris Olave, 23.20 points (19.1% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 15 – 21, 2022

Demich

131.66

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Kev

111.02

Rank 6; -1.5 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.78 points left. Optimal 142.44 vs. actual 131.66.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jimmy Garoppolo	25.42	Jimmy Garoppolo	25.42
WR	Justin Jefferson	6.30	Justin Jefferson	6.30
WR	Christian Watson	21.10	Christian Watson	21.10
RB	Jamaal Williams	24.40	Melvin Gordon III	12.00
RB	Michael Carter	2.70	Jamaal Williams	24.40
TE	Travis Kelce	37.50	Travis Kelce	37.50
W/R/T	Diontae Johnson	6.20	DeAndre Carter	7.38
W/R/T	Elijah Mitchell	5.90	Diontae Johnson	6.20
DEF	Texans	2.14	Texans	2.14

Carried by One Guy: Travis Kelce, 37.50 points (28.5% of positive starter points).

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 26.50 points left. Optimal 137.52 vs. actual 111.02.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	12.58	Josh Allen	12.58
WR	Curtis Samuel	9.80	Allen Lazard	10.70
WR	Allen Lazard	10.70	Treylon Burks	20.10
RB	Alvin Kamara	12.90	Alvin Kamara	12.90
RB	Tyler Allgeier	7.40	Tyler Allgeier	7.40
TE	George Kittle	24.40	George Kittle	24.40
W/R/T	Dalton Schultz	5.20	Parris Campbell	11.70
W/R/T	Parris Campbell	11.70	Wan'Dale Robinson	21.40
DEF	Cowboys	16.34	Cowboys	16.34

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: George Kittle, 24.40 points (22.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Travis Kelce scored 37.50; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 15 – 21, 2022

Big Hut

95.21

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

119.87

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 32.90 points left. Optimal 128.11 vs. actual 95.21.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Herbert	19.70	Justin Herbert	19.70
WR	Jakobi Meyers	9.20	Jakobi Meyers	9.20
WR	DeVonta Smith	13.80	DeVonta Smith	13.80
RB	James Conner	13.40	James Conner	13.40
RB	Austin Ekeler	18.00	Austin Ekeler	18.00
TE	Dawson Knox	14.00	Dawson Knox	14.00
W/R/T	Jerick McKinnon	1.40	Ezekiel Elliott	17.70
W/R/T	Drake London	7.20	Demarcus Robinson	23.80
DEF	Giants	-1.49	Giants	-1.49

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Justin Herbert, 19.70 points (20.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Najee Harris scored 27.60; zeroing that score creates a win.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.70 points left. Optimal 121.57 vs. actual 119.87.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Daniel Jones	26.64	Daniel Jones	26.64
WR	Keenan Allen	12.40	Keenan Allen	12.40
WR	Jarvis Landry	12.30	Jarvis Landry	12.30
RB	Kenyan Drake	7.30	Kenyan Drake	7.30
RB	Najee Harris	27.60	Najee Harris	27.60
TE	Juwan Johnson	13.70	Juwan Johnson	13.70
W/R/T	Kareem Hunt	7.40	Kareem Hunt	7.40
W/R/T	Kyren Williams	5.40	Michael Gallup	7.10
DEF	Bills	7.13	Bills	7.13

Carried by One Guy: Najee Harris, 27.60 points (23.0% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	9–2	6.538	+2.5	+0.192	1 / 0
Martin	4–7	5.000	-5.0	-0.385	0 / 2
Miller	6–5	5.923	-2.0	-0.154	1 / 1
Demich	7–4	7.077	-0.5	-0.038	1 / 2
Krajcik	7–4	6.385	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Big Hut	3–8	4.923	-1.0	-0.077	1 / 1
Niz	6–5	8.385	-9.5	-0.731	0 / 3
Josh	4–7	5.538	-9.5	-0.731	1 / 2
Adam	5–6	2.154	+13.5	+1.038	5 / 0
Fischer	4–7	4.538	+3.5	+0.269	2 / 1
Nevans	7–4	6.462	+2.5	+0.192	1 / 2
Joe Shore	7–4	6.615	-2.0	-0.154	2 / 2
Kev	5–6	5.692	-2.5	-0.192	1 / 2
Horgan	3–8	1.769	+6.0	+0.462	2 / 0

2022 week 11 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Niz lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Krajcik lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Nevans lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 11