2022 week 6 · Luck Factor

Regular

Oct 11 – 17, 2022

j-mart

110.52

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

65.88

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.60 points left. Optimal 123.12 vs. actual 110.52.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Zach Wilson	4.50	Zach Wilson	4.50
WR	Mike Williams	3.70	Tyler Boyd	12.60
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	34.20	Ja'Marr Chase	34.20
RB	Saquon Barkley	18.50	Saquon Barkley	18.50
RB	Tony Pollard	7.20	Tony Pollard	7.20
TE	Noah Fant	10.50	Noah Fant	10.50
W/R/T	Tyler Lockett	3.70	Latavius Murray	7.40
W/R/T	Jaylen Waddle	18.90	Jaylen Waddle	18.90
DEF	Bills	9.32	Bills	9.32

Carried by One Guy: Ja'Marr Chase, 34.20 points (30.9% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.00 points left. Optimal 74.88 vs. actual 65.88.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	13.72	Tom Brady	13.72
WR	Chris Godwin Jr.	15.50	Chris Godwin Jr.	15.50
WR	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	0.00	Michael Gallup	3.80
RB	AJ Dillon	9.20	AJ Dillon	9.20
RB	Najee Harris	12.90	Najee Harris	12.90
TE	Irv Smith Jr.	10.70	Irv Smith Jr.	10.70
W/R/T	Kareem Hunt	1.20	Evan Engram	9.00
W/R/T	Michael Gallup	3.80	Kareem Hunt	1.20
DEF	Jaguars	-1.14	Jaguars	-1.14

Carried by One Guy: Chris Godwin Jr., 15.50 points (23.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 11 – 17, 2022

Martin

115.16

Rank 5; -2.5 luck points

Miller

127.23

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.28 points left. Optimal 126.44 vs. actual 115.16.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	13.82	Russell Wilson	13.82
WR	Cooper Kupp	16.70	Cooper Kupp	16.70
WR	DJ Moore	3.70	DJ Moore	3.70
RB	Miles Sanders	14.20	Miles Sanders	14.20
RB	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	3.30	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	3.30
TE	Mark Andrews	25.60	Mark Andrews	25.60
W/R/T	Isaiah McKenzie	3.42	Brandon Aiyuk	28.30
W/R/T	Brandon Aiyuk	28.30	Joshua Palmer	14.70
DEF	Ravens	6.12	Ravens	6.12

Carried by One Guy: Brandon Aiyuk, 28.30 points (24.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Tyreek Hill scored 31.66; zeroing that score creates a win.

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 127.23 vs. actual 127.23.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	16.90	Jalen Hurts	16.90
WR	Tyreek Hill	31.66	Tyreek Hill	31.66
WR	Darnell Mooney	13.80	Darnell Mooney	13.80
RB	Travis Etienne Jr.	12.80	Travis Etienne Jr.	12.80
RB	Brian Robinson	12.00	Brian Robinson	12.00
TE	Zach Gentry	1.40	Zach Gentry	1.40
W/R/T	Gabe Davis	16.40	Gabe Davis	16.40
W/R/T	Rondale Moore	10.90	Rondale Moore	10.90
DEF	Rams	11.37	Rams	11.37

Carried by One Guy: Tyreek Hill, 31.66 points (24.9% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 11 – 17, 2022

Josh

136.49

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Adam

74.58

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 136.49 vs. actual 136.49.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	21.62	Patrick Mahomes	21.62
WR	Mike Evans	8.20	Mike Evans	8.20
WR	Allen Lazard	17.60	Allen Lazard	17.60
RB	Joe Mixon	16.80	Joe Mixon	16.80
RB	Darrell Henderson Jr.	13.20	Darrell Henderson Jr.	13.20
TE	Zach Ertz	14.00	Zach Ertz	14.00
W/R/T	JuJu Smith-Schuster	24.30	JuJu Smith-Schuster	24.30
W/R/T	Alec Pierce	13.90	Alec Pierce	13.90
DEF	Colts	6.87	Colts	6.87

Carried by One Guy: JuJu Smith-Schuster, 24.30 points (17.8% of positive starter points).

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.50 points left. Optimal 81.08 vs. actual 74.58.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	11.82	Matthew Stafford	11.82
WR	Tee Higgins	10.70	Darius Slayton	2.80
WR	Dyami Brown	0.00	Tee Higgins	10.70
RB	Mike Boone	1.40	Chase Edmonds	5.10
RB	Phillip Lindsay	6.20	Phillip Lindsay	6.20
TE	David Njoku	8.80	David Njoku	8.80
W/R/T	Allen Robinson	17.30	Allen Robinson	17.30
W/R/T	Russell Gage Jr.	4.00	Russell Gage Jr.	4.00
DEF	Vikings	14.36	Vikings	14.36

Carried by One Guy: Allen Robinson, 17.30 points (23.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 11 – 17, 2022

Big Hut

99.42

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

99.78

Rank 9; +1.5 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.88 points left. Optimal 110.30 vs. actual 99.42.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Herbert	8.42	Justin Fields	18.40
WR	Hollywood Brown	11.80	Hollywood Brown	11.80
WR	DeVonta Smith	15.40	DeVonta Smith	15.40
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	15.60	Ezekiel Elliott	15.60
RB	Austin Ekeler	24.30	Austin Ekeler	24.30
TE	Taysom Hill	4.54	Taysom Hill	4.54
W/R/T	Jakobi Meyers	10.00	Jakobi Meyers	10.00
W/R/T	Romeo Doubs	6.10	Drake London	7.00
DEF	Saints	3.26	Saints	3.26

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Austin Ekeler, 24.30 points (24.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Michael Pittman Jr. scored 28.40; zeroing that score creates a win.

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 24.74 points left. Optimal 124.52 vs. actual 99.78.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	16.10	Lamar Jackson	16.10
WR	Michael Pittman Jr.	28.40	Michael Pittman Jr.	28.40
WR	George Pickens	5.80	George Pickens	5.80
RB	Deon Jackson	28.10	Antonio Gibson	8.84
RB	Jaylen Warren	0.20	Deon Jackson	28.10
TE	Will Dissly	2.20	Kyle Pitts Sr.	10.90
W/R/T	Donovan Peoples-Jones	11.60	Donovan Peoples-Jones	11.60
W/R/T	Elijah Moore	0.00	Khalil Herbert	7.40
DEF	Bears	7.38	Bears	7.38

Carried by One Guy: Michael Pittman Jr., 28.40 points (28.5% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 11 – 17, 2022

Krajcik

86.11

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Nevans

86.92

Rank 11; +3.5 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.86 points left. Optimal 98.97 vs. actual 86.11.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	16.88	Kyler Murray	16.88
WR	DK Metcalf	5.40	Amari Cooper	14.40
WR	CeeDee Lamb	12.70	CeeDee Lamb	12.70
RB	Dalvin Cook	15.30	Dalvin Cook	15.30
RB	Breece Hall	22.10	Breece Hall	22.10
TE	Tyler Higbee	1.70	Tyler Higbee	1.70
W/R/T	Raheem Mostert	6.30	Raheem Mostert	6.30
W/R/T	Devin Duvernay	2.64	James Robinson	6.50
DEF	49ers	3.09	49ers	3.09

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Breece Hall, 22.10 points (25.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Rhamondre Stevenson scored 25.10; zeroing that score creates a win.

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.80 points left. Optimal 92.72 vs. actual 86.92.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	11.84	Aaron Rodgers	11.84
WR	Adam Thielen	15.60	Adam Thielen	15.60
WR	Terry McLaurin	8.20	Terry McLaurin	8.20
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	7.40	Aaron Jones Sr.	7.40
RB	Nick Chubb	8.00	Nick Chubb	8.00
TE	Tyler Conklin	2.70	Tyler Conklin	2.70
W/R/T	Courtland Sutton	3.40	Zay Jones	9.20
W/R/T	Rhamondre Stevenson	25.10	Rhamondre Stevenson	25.10
DEF	Buccaneers	4.68	Buccaneers	4.68

Carried by One Guy: Rhamondre Stevenson, 25.10 points (28.9% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 11 – 17, 2022

Demich

100.85

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

117.24

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.78 points left. Optimal 106.63 vs. actual 100.85.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kirk Cousins	16.50	Kirk Cousins	16.50
WR	Jerry Jeudy	8.40	Jerry Jeudy	8.40
WR	Justin Jefferson	18.70	Justin Jefferson	18.70
RB	Michael Carter	5.70	Caleb Huntley	5.90
RB	Kenneth Walker	19.00	Kenneth Walker	19.00
TE	Travis Kelce	21.20	Travis Kelce	21.20
W/R/T	Melvin Gordon III	0.80	DeAndre Carter	6.38
W/R/T	Diontae Johnson	8.60	Diontae Johnson	8.60
DEF	Bengals	1.95	Bengals	1.95

Carried by One Guy: Travis Kelce, 21.20 points (21.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Trevor Lawrence scored 24.90; zeroing that score creates a win.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 117.24 vs. actual 117.24.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Trevor Lawrence	24.90	Trevor Lawrence	24.90
WR	Deebo Samuel Sr.	16.00	Deebo Samuel Sr.	16.00
WR	A.J. Brown	17.70	A.J. Brown	17.70
RB	Christian McCaffrey	22.80	Christian McCaffrey	22.80
RB	Jeff Wilson Jr.	0.50	Jeff Wilson Jr.	0.50
TE	Gerald Everett	7.90	Gerald Everett	7.90
W/R/T	Dawson Knox	12.70	Dawson Knox	12.70
W/R/T	Marquez Callaway	6.60	Marquez Callaway	6.60
DEF	Eagles	8.14	Eagles	8.14

Carried by One Guy: Trevor Lawrence, 24.90 points (21.2% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 11 – 17, 2022

Niz

115.04

Rank 6; -1.5 luck points

Kev

124.28

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 115.04 vs. actual 115.04.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	34.50	Joe Burrow	34.50
WR	Randall Cobb	1.80	Randall Cobb	1.80
WR	Stefon Diggs	32.80	Stefon Diggs	32.80
RB	Devin Singletary	14.70	Devin Singletary	14.70
RB	J.K. Dobbins	1.50	J.K. Dobbins	1.50
TE	Dallas Goedert	4.20	Dallas Goedert	4.20
W/R/T	Christian Kirk	10.80	Christian Kirk	10.80
W/R/T	Joshua Kelley	0.00	Joshua Kelley	0.00
DEF	Patriots	14.74	Patriots	14.74

Carried by One Guy: Joe Burrow, 34.50 points (30.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Josh Allen scored 28.36; zeroing that score creates a win.

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 20.80 points left. Optimal 145.08 vs. actual 124.28.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	28.36	Josh Allen	28.36
WR	Curtis Samuel	2.60	Chase Claypool	23.40
WR	Wan'Dale Robinson	12.70	Wan'Dale Robinson	12.70
RB	Leonard Fournette	22.10	Leonard Fournette	22.10
RB	David Montgomery	9.00	David Montgomery	9.00
TE	George Kittle	16.30	George Kittle	16.30
W/R/T	Alvin Kamara	18.40	Alvin Kamara	18.40
W/R/T	Eno Benjamin	9.50	Eno Benjamin	9.50
DEF	Cowboys	5.32	Cowboys	5.32

Carried by One Guy: Josh Allen, 28.36 points (22.8% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	6–0	3.846	+2.5	+0.192	1 / 0
Martin	2–4	3.462	-5.0	-0.385	0 / 2
Miller	4–2	3.077	+0.5	+0.038	1 / 0
Demich	3–3	3.462	-0.5	-0.038	0 / 1
Krajcik	4–2	3.923	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Big Hut	2–4	3.077	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Niz	2–4	4.308	-9.5	-0.731	0 / 3
Josh	2–4	3.000	-4.5	-0.346	0 / 1
Adam	2–4	1.154	+5.0	+0.385	2 / 0
Fischer	3–3	2.231	+3.5	+0.269	2 / 1
Nevans	4–2	3.462	+3.0	+0.231	1 / 1
Joe Shore	3–3	3.385	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1
Kev	3–3	2.769	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 0
Horgan	2–4	0.846	+6.0	+0.462	2 / 0

2022 week 6 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Miller lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Nevans lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Niz lineup

Kev lineup

Cumulative totals through week 6