2022 week 10 · Luck Factor

Regular

Nov 8 – 14, 2022

j-mart

124.63

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

108.11

Rank 7; -0.5 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 124.63 vs. actual 124.63.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	19.20	Dak Prescott	19.20
WR	Tyler Lockett	13.20	Tyler Lockett	13.20
WR	Jaylen Waddle	10.60	Jaylen Waddle	10.60
RB	Saquon Barkley	25.00	Saquon Barkley	25.00
RB	Tony Pollard	23.80	Tony Pollard	23.80
TE	Taysom Hill	0.10	Taysom Hill	0.10
W/R/T	Latavius Murray	7.70	Latavius Murray	7.70
W/R/T	D'Onta Foreman	21.00	D'Onta Foreman	21.00
DEF	Raiders	4.03	Raiders	4.03

Carried by One Guy: Saquon Barkley, 25.00 points (20.1% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.54 points left. Optimal 115.65 vs. actual 108.11.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Trevor Lawrence	20.96	Trevor Lawrence	20.96
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	19.80	DeAndre Hopkins	19.80
WR	A.J. Brown	1.70	Deebo Samuel Sr.	7.10
RB	Christian McCaffrey	17.70	Christian McCaffrey	17.70
RB	Jeff Wilson Jr.	24.30	Jeff Wilson Jr.	24.30
TE	Greg Dulcich	2.10	Gerald Everett	4.30
W/R/T	Deebo Samuel Sr.	7.10	Khalil Herbert	7.04
W/R/T	Chris Olave	7.00	Chris Olave	7.00
DEF	Eagles	7.45	Eagles	7.45

Carried by One Guy: Jeff Wilson Jr., 24.30 points (22.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Saquon Barkley scored 25.00; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 8 – 14, 2022

Martin

88.18

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Adam

88.20

Rank 10; +2.5 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.50 points left. Optimal 97.68 vs. actual 88.18.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Fields	41.38	Justin Fields	41.38
WR	Cooper Kupp	2.90	Cooper Kupp	2.90
WR	DJ Moore	6.90	DJ Moore	6.90
RB	Nyheim Miller-Hines	2.40	Nyheim Miller-Hines	2.40
RB	Miles Sanders	5.40	Miles Sanders	5.40
TE	Cade Otton	6.50	Cade Otton	6.50
W/R/T	Brandon Aiyuk	12.40	Isaiah McKenzie	9.50
W/R/T	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	0.00	Brandon Aiyuk	12.40
DEF	Steelers	10.30	Steelers	10.30

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Justin Fields, 41.38 points (46.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Cole Kmet scored 23.40; zeroing that score creates a win.

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 88.20 vs. actual 88.20.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Geno Smith	19.20	Geno Smith	19.20
WR	Brandin Cooks	8.20	Brandin Cooks	8.20
WR	Kalif Raymond	7.70	Kalif Raymond	7.70
RB	Cordarrelle Patterson	4.70	Cordarrelle Patterson	4.70
RB	D'Andre Swift	8.20	D'Andre Swift	8.20
TE	Cole Kmet	23.40	Cole Kmet	23.40
W/R/T	Allen Robinson	8.40	Allen Robinson	8.40
W/R/T	Mack Hollins	3.80	Mack Hollins	3.80
DEF	Seahawks	4.60	Seahawks	4.60

Carried by One Guy: Cole Kmet, 23.40 points (26.5% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 8 – 14, 2022

Big Hut

102.33

Rank 8; +0.5 luck points

Josh

84.02

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.40 points left. Optimal 108.73 vs. actual 102.33.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Herbert	12.04	Marcus Mariota	17.74
WR	Marvin Jones Jr.	4.30	DeVonta Smith	13.90
WR	DeVonta Smith	13.90	Drake London	14.80
RB	James Conner	23.60	James Conner	23.60
RB	Austin Ekeler	13.30	Austin Ekeler	13.30
TE	Noah Fant	6.40	Noah Fant	6.40
W/R/T	Jerick McKinnon	11.80	Rex Burkhead	5.00
W/R/T	Drake London	14.80	Jerick McKinnon	11.80
DEF	Falcons	2.19	Falcons	2.19

Carried by One Guy: James Conner, 23.60 points (23.1% of positive starter points).

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.00 points left. Optimal 99.02 vs. actual 84.02.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	33.14	Patrick Mahomes	33.14
WR	Mike Evans	10.40	Mike Evans	10.40
WR	JuJu Smith-Schuster	5.30	JuJu Smith-Schuster	5.30
RB	David Montgomery	5.40	Darrell Henderson Jr.	10.20
RB	Chuba Hubbard	1.40	David Montgomery	5.40
TE	Zach Ertz	2.20	Zach Ertz	2.20
W/R/T	Darius Slayton	18.50	Darius Slayton	18.50
W/R/T	Alec Pierce	0.00	Isiah Pacheco	6.20
DEF	Dolphins	7.68	Dolphins	7.68

Carried by One Guy: Patrick Mahomes, 33.14 points (39.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: James Conner scored 23.60; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 8 – 14, 2022

Demich

137.26

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

101.39

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 35.40 points left. Optimal 172.66 vs. actual 137.26.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Derek Carr	17.92	Derek Carr	17.92
WR	DeAndre Carter	17.00	DeAndre Carter	17.00
WR	Justin Jefferson	37.30	Justin Jefferson	37.30
RB	Jamaal Williams	11.90	Jamaal Williams	11.90
RB	Kenneth Walker	13.20	Kenneth Walker	13.20
TE	Travis Kelce	20.10	Travis Kelce	20.10
W/R/T	Diontae Johnson	10.30	Melvin Gordon III	11.00
W/R/T	Jerry Jeudy	0.00	Christian Watson	34.70
DEF	Cardinals	9.54	Cardinals	9.54

Carried by One Guy: Justin Jefferson, 37.30 points (27.2% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.00 points left. Optimal 119.39 vs. actual 101.39.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kirk Cousins	17.48	Kirk Cousins	17.48
WR	Michael Pittman Jr.	12.30	Michael Pittman Jr.	12.30
WR	George Pickens	14.50	George Pickens	14.50
RB	Derrick Henry	8.70	Dameon Pierce	12.20
RB	Dameon Pierce	12.20	Jaylen Warren	10.70
TE	Kyle Pitts Sr.	4.80	Foster Moreau	13.30
W/R/T	Antonio Gibson	15.08	Antonio Gibson	15.08
W/R/T	Joshua Palmer	7.40	Donovan Peoples-Jones	14.90
DEF	Saints	8.93	Saints	8.93

Carried by One Guy: Kirk Cousins, 17.48 points (17.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Justin Jefferson scored 37.30; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 8 – 14, 2022

Miller

133.42

Rank 5; -2.5 luck points

Nevans

133.64

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.82 points left. Optimal 147.24 vs. actual 133.42.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	21.80	Jalen Hurts	21.80
WR	Tyreek Hill	15.40	Tyreek Hill	15.40
WR	Darnell Mooney	9.70	Kadarius Toney	19.22
RB	Jonathan Taylor	26.30	Jonathan Taylor	26.30
RB	Travis Etienne Jr.	10.30	Brian Robinson	14.60
TE	Pat Freiermuth	7.60	Pat Freiermuth	7.60
W/R/T	Gabe Davis	21.30	Gabe Davis	21.30
W/R/T	Rondale Moore	18.40	Rondale Moore	18.40
DEF	Rams	2.62	Rams	2.62

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Jonathan Taylor, 26.30 points (19.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Aaron Jones Sr. scored 25.60; zeroing that score creates a win.

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.74 points left. Optimal 139.38 vs. actual 133.64.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	16.02	Aaron Rodgers	19.36
WR	Adam Thielen	9.90	Adam Thielen	9.90
WR	Terry McLaurin	22.80	Terry McLaurin	22.80
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	25.60	Aaron Jones Sr.	25.60
RB	Nick Chubb	15.10	Nick Chubb	15.10
TE	T.J. Hockenson	11.50	T.J. Hockenson	11.50
W/R/T	Zay Jones	14.80	Zay Jones	14.80
W/R/T	Courtland Sutton	12.60	Courtland Sutton	12.60
DEF	Broncos	5.32	Buccaneers	7.72

Carried by One Guy: Aaron Jones Sr., 25.60 points (19.2% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 8 – 14, 2022

Krajcik

168.35

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Kev

82.16

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.72 points left. Optimal 178.07 vs. actual 168.35.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Colt McCoy	13.92	Jared Goff	14.84
WR	DK Metcalf	13.10	DK Metcalf	13.10
WR	CeeDee Lamb	40.00	CeeDee Lamb	40.00
RB	Raheem Mostert	19.90	Raheem Mostert	19.90
RB	Dalvin Cook	25.60	Dalvin Cook	25.60
TE	Tyler Higbee	15.30	Tyler Higbee	15.30
W/R/T	Amari Cooper	6.20	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	15.00
W/R/T	Amon-Ra St. Brown	24.10	Amon-Ra St. Brown	24.10
DEF	Giants	10.23	Giants	10.23

Carried by One Guy: CeeDee Lamb, 40.00 points (23.8% of positive starter points).

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.30 points left. Optimal 84.46 vs. actual 82.16.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	21.60	Josh Allen	21.60
WR	Curtis Samuel	6.00	Curtis Samuel	6.00
WR	Allen Lazard	7.50	Allen Lazard	7.50
RB	Leonard Fournette	10.80	Leonard Fournette	10.80
RB	Alvin Kamara	7.50	Alvin Kamara	7.50
TE	George Kittle	3.10	Dalton Schultz	17.40
W/R/T	Dalton Schultz	17.40	Treylon Burks	5.40
W/R/T	Wan'Dale Robinson	3.50	Wan'Dale Robinson	3.50
DEF	Cowboys	4.76	Cowboys	4.76

Carried by One Guy: Josh Allen, 21.60 points (26.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Nov 8 – 14, 2022

Niz

175.98

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

80.40

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.50 points left. Optimal 189.48 vs. actual 175.98.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tua Tagovailoa	23.40	Tua Tagovailoa	23.40
WR	Davante Adams	29.60	Davante Adams	29.60
WR	Stefon Diggs	26.80	Stefon Diggs	26.80
RB	Josh Jacobs	22.60	Josh Jacobs	22.60
RB	Devin Singletary	15.70	Devin Singletary	15.70
TE	Dallas Goedert	9.30	Dallas Goedert	9.30
W/R/T	Christian Kirk	33.50	Christian Kirk	33.50
W/R/T	Jahan Dotson	2.40	Nico Collins	15.90
DEF	Titans	12.68	Titans	12.68

Carried by One Guy: Christian Kirk, 33.50 points (19.0% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.70 points left. Optimal 89.10 vs. actual 80.40.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Daniel Jones	18.28	Daniel Jones	18.28
WR	Jarvis Landry	6.70	Jarvis Landry	6.70
WR	Chris Godwin Jr.	19.10	Chris Godwin Jr.	19.10
RB	Kareem Hunt	2.90	AJ Dillon	6.50
RB	Najee Harris	9.90	Najee Harris	9.90
TE	Evan Engram	4.40	Evan Engram	4.40
W/R/T	Michael Gallup	7.50	Michael Gallup	7.50
W/R/T	Chase Claypool	1.80	Kyren Williams	6.90
DEF	Bills	9.82	Bills	9.82

Carried by One Guy: Chris Godwin Jr., 19.10 points (23.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	9–1	6.385	+2.5	+0.192	1 / 0
Martin	4–6	5.000	-5.0	-0.385	0 / 2
Miller	6–4	5.538	-2.0	-0.154	1 / 1
Demich	6–4	6.154	-0.5	-0.038	1 / 2
Krajcik	6–4	5.846	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Big Hut	3–7	4.615	-1.0	-0.077	1 / 1
Niz	5–5	7.385	-9.5	-0.731	0 / 3
Josh	3–7	5.077	-10.0	-0.769	0 / 2
Adam	5–5	2.077	+13.5	+1.038	5 / 0
Fischer	3–7	3.692	+3.5	+0.269	2 / 1
Nevans	7–3	6.231	+2.5	+0.192	1 / 2
Joe Shore	6–4	5.846	-2.0	-0.154	2 / 2
Kev	5–5	5.077	-1.0	-0.077	1 / 1
Horgan	2–8	1.077	+6.0	+0.462	2 / 0

2022 week 10 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Nevans lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Niz lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 10