2022 week 2 · Luck Factor

Regular

Sep 13 – 19, 2022

j-mart

172.71

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Kev

116.92

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 172.71 vs. actual 172.71.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	1.80	Matt Ryan	1.80
WR	Mike Williams	27.30	Mike Williams	27.30
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	10.80	Ja'Marr Chase	10.80
RB	Saquon Barkley	11.80	Saquon Barkley	11.80
RB	Tony Pollard	19.80	Tony Pollard	19.80
TE	Darren Waller	17.00	Darren Waller	17.00
W/R/T	Tyler Lockett	21.70	Tyler Lockett	21.70
W/R/T	Jaylen Waddle	42.10	Jaylen Waddle	42.10
DEF	Bills	20.41	Bills	20.41

Carried by One Guy: Jaylen Waddle, 42.10 points (24.4% of positive starter points).

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.00 points left. Optimal 121.92 vs. actual 116.92.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	31.68	Josh Allen	31.68
WR	Michael Thomas	18.50	Michael Thomas	18.50
WR	Curtis Samuel	22.90	Curtis Samuel	22.90
RB	Leonard Fournette	9.40	Leonard Fournette	9.40
RB	David Montgomery	17.60	David Montgomery	17.60
TE	Hayden Hurst	7.40	Hayden Hurst	7.40
W/R/T	Parris Campbell	0.00	Kadarius Toney	2.00
W/R/T	Donovan Peoples-Jones	0.00	Tyler Allgeier	3.00
DEF	Packers	9.44	Packers	9.44

Carried by One Guy: Josh Allen, 31.68 points (27.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 13 – 19, 2022

Miller

139.86

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Josh

87.47

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.30 points left. Optimal 148.16 vs. actual 139.86.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	35.02	Jalen Hurts	35.02
WR	Tyreek Hill	44.00	Tyreek Hill	44.00
WR	Chase Claypool	6.60	Chase Claypool	6.60
RB	Jonathan Taylor	7.30	Jonathan Taylor	7.30
RB	Travis Etienne Jr.	8.30	Travis Etienne Jr.	8.30
TE	Pat Freiermuth	12.20	Pat Freiermuth	12.20
W/R/T	Damien Harris	16.70	Damien Harris	16.70
W/R/T	Darnell Mooney	0.60	Eno Benjamin	8.90
DEF	Rams	9.14	Rams	9.14

Carried by One Guy: Tyreek Hill, 44.00 points (31.5% of positive starter points).

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.30 points left. Optimal 99.77 vs. actual 87.47.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	17.30	Patrick Mahomes	17.30
WR	Mike Evans	9.10	Mike Evans	9.10
WR	JuJu Smith-Schuster	4.00	Corey Davis	16.30
RB	Joe Mixon	11.30	Joe Mixon	11.30
RB	Javonte Williams	9.50	Javonte Williams	9.50
TE	Zach Ertz	15.50	Zach Ertz	15.50
W/R/T	Allen Lazard	9.30	Allen Lazard	9.30
W/R/T	Darrell Henderson Jr.	10.70	Darrell Henderson Jr.	10.70
DEF	Colts	0.77	Colts	0.77

Carried by One Guy: Patrick Mahomes, 17.30 points (19.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 13 – 19, 2022

Krajcik

163.47

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Niz

152.72

Rank 4; -3.5 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 19.80 points left. Optimal 183.27 vs. actual 163.47.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	25.88	Kyler Murray	25.88
WR	CeeDee Lamb	15.10	CeeDee Lamb	15.10
WR	Devin Duvernay	15.36	Devin Duvernay	15.36
RB	Dalvin Cook	7.60	J.D. McKissic	13.30
RB	James Robinson	15.80	James Robinson	15.80
TE	Tyler Higbee	14.10	Tyler Higbee	14.10
W/R/T	Amon-Ra St. Brown	41.40	Amari Cooper	27.10
W/R/T	Breece Hall	13.00	Amon-Ra St. Brown	41.40
DEF	49ers	15.23	49ers	15.23

Carried by One Guy: Amon-Ra St. Brown, 41.40 points (25.3% of positive starter points).

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 30.40 points left. Optimal 183.12 vs. actual 152.72.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	16.56	Tua Tagovailoa	40.86
WR	Davante Adams	9.20	Stefon Diggs	46.80
WR	Stefon Diggs	46.80	Nico Collins	9.80
RB	Josh Jacobs	9.10	Jerick McKinnon	9.60
RB	Devin Singletary	4.10	Josh Jacobs	9.10
TE	Dallas Goedert	13.20	Dallas Goedert	13.20
W/R/T	Christian Kirk	25.80	Christian Kirk	25.80
W/R/T	Jahan Dotson	17.90	Jahan Dotson	17.90
DEF	Patriots	10.06	Patriots	10.06

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Stefon Diggs, 46.80 points (30.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Amon-Ra St. Brown scored 41.40; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 13 – 19, 2022

Adam

69.74

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

115.02

Rank 10; +2.5 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.26 points left. Optimal 73.00 vs. actual 69.74.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Trey Lance	2.50	Trey Lance	2.50
WR	Brandin Cooks	9.40	Brandin Cooks	9.40
WR	Deebo Samuel Sr.	14.70	Deebo Samuel Sr.	14.70
RB	Chase Edmonds	5.10	Chase Edmonds	5.10
RB	D'Andre Swift	16.70	D'Andre Swift	16.70
TE	Dalton Schultz	1.80	Dalton Schultz	1.80
W/R/T	Cordarrelle Patterson	4.64	Robert Woods	7.90
W/R/T	Hunter Renfrow	10.90	Hunter Renfrow	10.90
DEF	Steelers	4.00	Steelers	4.00

Carried by One Guy: D'Andre Swift, 16.70 points (23.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Lamar Jackson scored 46.62; zeroing that score creates a win.

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.30 points left. Optimal 119.32 vs. actual 115.02.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	46.62	Lamar Jackson	46.62
WR	Mecole Hardman Jr.	7.50	Mecole Hardman Jr.	7.50
WR	Rashod Bateman	22.80	Rashod Bateman	22.80
RB	Antonio Gibson	12.10	Antonio Gibson	12.10
RB	Michael Carter	10.00	Michael Carter	10.00
TE	Kyle Pitts Sr.	3.90	Kyle Pitts Sr.	3.90
W/R/T	Derrick Henry	8.50	Derrick Henry	8.50
W/R/T	Kenyan Drake	0.80	Khalil Herbert	5.10
DEF	Browns	2.80	Browns	2.80

Carried by One Guy: Lamar Jackson, 46.62 points (40.5% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 13 – 19, 2022

Martin

144.64

Rank 5; -2.5 luck points

Nevans

163.77

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.92 points left. Optimal 152.56 vs. actual 144.64.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	11.06	Derek Carr	18.98
WR	Cooper Kupp	33.80	Cooper Kupp	33.80
WR	DJ Moore	13.30	DJ Moore	13.30
RB	Miles Sanders	11.60	Miles Sanders	11.60
RB	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	15.80	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	15.80
TE	Mark Andrews	27.70	Mark Andrews	27.70
W/R/T	Brandon Aiyuk	11.30	Brandon Aiyuk	11.30
W/R/T	Joshua Palmer	13.00	Joshua Palmer	13.00
DEF	Ravens	7.08	Ravens	7.08

Carried by One Guy: Cooper Kupp, 33.80 points (23.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Aaron Jones Sr. scored 34.00; zeroing that score creates a win.

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.40 points left. Optimal 168.17 vs. actual 163.77.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	16.36	Aaron Rodgers	16.36
WR	Adam Thielen	9.20	Adam Thielen	9.20
WR	Terry McLaurin	12.20	Terry McLaurin	12.20
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	34.00	Aaron Jones Sr.	34.00
RB	Nick Chubb	32.30	Nick Chubb	32.30
TE	T.J. Hockenson	5.60	Tyler Conklin	10.00
W/R/T	Courtland Sutton	21.70	Courtland Sutton	21.70
W/R/T	Rhamondre Stevenson	6.10	Rhamondre Stevenson	6.10
DEF	Buccaneers	26.31	Buccaneers	26.31

Carried by One Guy: Aaron Jones Sr., 34.00 points (20.8% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 13 – 19, 2022

Big Hut

122.95

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

125.58

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 31.80 points left. Optimal 154.75 vs. actual 122.95.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Herbert	25.46	Justin Herbert	25.46
WR	Hollywood Brown	12.80	Jakobi Meyers	18.50
WR	DeVonta Smith	15.00	DeVonta Smith	15.00
RB	James Conner	7.10	James Conner	7.10
RB	Austin Ekeler	18.40	Austin Ekeler	18.40
TE	Dawson Knox	8.10	Dawson Knox	8.10
W/R/T	Ezekiel Elliott	5.90	Drake London	24.60
W/R/T	Drake London	24.60	Garrett Wilson	32.00
DEF	Saints	5.59	Saints	5.59

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Justin Herbert, 25.46 points (20.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Tee Higgins scored 19.10; zeroing that score creates a win.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 125.58 vs. actual 125.58.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	18.88	Matthew Stafford	18.88
WR	A.J. Brown	11.90	A.J. Brown	11.90
WR	Tee Higgins	19.10	Tee Higgins	19.10
RB	Christian McCaffrey	18.80	Christian McCaffrey	18.80
RB	Jeff Wilson Jr.	12.30	Jeff Wilson Jr.	12.30
TE	Gerald Everett	13.10	Gerald Everett	13.10
W/R/T	Allen Robinson	15.30	Allen Robinson	15.30
W/R/T	Chris Olave	11.00	Chris Olave	11.00
DEF	Bengals	5.20	Bengals	5.20

Carried by One Guy: Tee Higgins, 19.10 points (15.2% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 13 – 19, 2022

Demich

60.70

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

106.64

Rank 11; +3.5 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 19.52 points left. Optimal 80.22 vs. actual 60.70.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kirk Cousins	8.84	Kirk Cousins	8.84
WR	Justin Jefferson	10.80	Sammy Watkins	12.30
WR	Elijah Moore	6.50	Justin Jefferson	10.80
RB	Melvin Gordon III	6.30	Melvin Gordon III	6.30
RB	Jamaal Williams	7.00	Jamaal Williams	7.00
TE	Travis Kelce	10.10	Travis Kelce	10.10
W/R/T	Diontae Johnson	13.70	Diontae Johnson	13.70
W/R/T	Jerry Jeudy	2.20	Greg Dortch	15.92
DEF	Dolphins	-4.74	Dolphins	-4.74

Carried by One Guy: Diontae Johnson, 13.70 points (20.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 106.64 vs. actual 106.64.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Carson Wentz	29.78	Carson Wentz	29.78
WR	Sterling Shepard	9.40	Sterling Shepard	9.40
WR	Russell Gage Jr.	7.80	Russell Gage Jr.	7.80
RB	AJ Dillon	7.70	AJ Dillon	7.70
RB	Najee Harris	13.90	Najee Harris	13.90
TE	Logan Thomas	12.70	Logan Thomas	12.70
W/R/T	Kareem Hunt	9.40	Kareem Hunt	9.40
W/R/T	Cam Akers	8.20	Cam Akers	8.20
DEF	Broncos	7.76	Broncos	7.76

Carried by One Guy: Carson Wentz, 29.78 points (27.9% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	2–0	1.692	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Martin	1–1	1.462	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1
Miller	2–0	1.231	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Demich	1–1	1.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Krajcik	1–1	1.077	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Big Hut	0–2	0.769	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Niz	1–1	1.692	-3.5	-0.269	0 / 1
Josh	0–2	1.000	-4.5	-0.346	0 / 1
Adam	1–1	0.538	+0.5	+0.038	1 / 0
Fischer	1–1	0.846	+2.0	+0.154	1 / 1
Nevans	1–1	1.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Joe Shore	1–1	0.538	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Kev	1–1	0.769	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 0
Horgan	1–1	0.385	+3.5	+0.269	1 / 0

2022 week 2 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Niz lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Nevans lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 2