2022 week 7 · Luck Factor

Regular

Oct 18 – 24, 2022

j-mart

150.83

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik

79.26

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 31.40 points left. Optimal 182.23 vs. actual 150.83.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	12.28	Dak Prescott	12.28
WR	Mike Williams	21.60	Mike Williams	21.60
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	35.00	Ja'Marr Chase	35.00
RB	Saquon Barkley	19.50	D'Onta Foreman	18.50
RB	Tony Pollard	12.90	Saquon Barkley	19.50
TE	Foster Moreau	5.80	Foster Moreau	5.80
W/R/T	Tyler Lockett	11.50	Tyler Boyd	31.50
W/R/T	Jaylen Waddle	12.80	Gus Edwards	18.60
DEF	Titans	19.45	Titans	19.45

Carried by One Guy: Ja'Marr Chase, 35.00 points (23.2% of positive starter points).

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.72 points left. Optimal 84.98 vs. actual 79.26.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	17.16	Kyler Murray	17.16
WR	DK Metcalf	2.20	DK Metcalf	2.20
WR	CeeDee Lamb	10.60	CeeDee Lamb	10.60
RB	Raheem Mostert	21.46	Raheem Mostert	21.46
RB	Breece Hall	13.20	Breece Hall	13.20
TE	Hunter Henry	2.20	Hunter Henry	2.20
W/R/T	Amari Cooper	10.40	Amari Cooper	10.40
W/R/T	Amon-Ra St. Brown	1.40	Devin Duvernay	7.12
DEF	49ers	0.64	49ers	0.64

Carried by One Guy: Raheem Mostert, 21.46 points (27.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 18 – 24, 2022

Martin

87.34

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Josh

134.09

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.90 points left. Optimal 89.24 vs. actual 87.34.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Derek Carr	13.54	Derek Carr	13.54
WR	DJ Moore	19.60	DJ Moore	19.60
WR	Brandon Aiyuk	15.20	Brandon Aiyuk	15.20
RB	Nyheim Miller-Hines	10.24	Nyheim Miller-Hines	10.24
RB	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	9.20	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	9.20
TE	Mark Andrews	0.40	Daniel Bellinger	2.30
W/R/T	Josh Reynolds	1.80	Josh Reynolds	1.80
W/R/T	Tyquan Thornton	2.90	Tyquan Thornton	2.90
DEF	Ravens	14.46	Ravens	14.46

Carried by One Guy: DJ Moore, 19.60 points (22.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.30 points left. Optimal 147.39 vs. actual 134.09.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	28.92	Patrick Mahomes	28.92
WR	Mike Evans	18.60	Mike Evans	18.60
WR	Allen Lazard	11.50	Allen Lazard	11.50
RB	Joe Mixon	18.10	Joe Mixon	18.10
RB	Isiah Pacheco	7.82	Isiah Pacheco	7.82
TE	Zach Ertz	6.10	Hayden Hurst	10.80
W/R/T	JuJu Smith-Schuster	27.40	JuJu Smith-Schuster	27.40
W/R/T	Alec Pierce	6.70	Chuba Hubbard	15.30
DEF	Colts	8.95	Colts	8.95

Carried by One Guy: Patrick Mahomes, 28.92 points (21.6% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 18 – 24, 2022

Demich

122.38

Rank 7; -0.5 luck points

Niz

140.89

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 122.38 vs. actual 122.38.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jimmy Garoppolo	18.32	Jimmy Garoppolo	18.32
WR	Diontae Johnson	9.50	Diontae Johnson	9.50
WR	Jerry Jeudy	16.60	Jerry Jeudy	16.60
RB	Jamaal Williams	7.30	Jamaal Williams	7.30
RB	Kenneth Walker	30.70	Kenneth Walker	30.70
TE	Travis Kelce	15.80	Travis Kelce	15.80
W/R/T	DeAndre Carter	7.76	DeAndre Carter	7.76
W/R/T	Michael Carter	9.40	Michael Carter	9.40
DEF	Jets	7.00	Jets	7.00

Carried by One Guy: Kenneth Walker, 30.70 points (25.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Joe Burrow scored 41.24; zeroing that score creates a win.

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.50 points left. Optimal 141.39 vs. actual 140.89.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	41.24	Joe Burrow	41.24
WR	Davante Adams	17.50	Davante Adams	17.50
WR	DeVante Parker	9.80	DeVante Parker	9.80
RB	Josh Jacobs	38.50	Josh Jacobs	38.50
RB	Isaiah Spiller	-0.50	Devin Singletary	0.00
TE	Mike Gesicki	5.70	Mike Gesicki	5.70
W/R/T	Christian Kirk	17.10	Christian Kirk	17.10
W/R/T	Nico Collins	6.30	Nico Collins	6.30
DEF	Patriots	5.25	Patriots	5.25

Carried by One Guy: Joe Burrow, 41.24 points (29.2% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 18 – 24, 2022

Fischer

93.67

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Nevans

127.58

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 26.24 points left. Optimal 119.91 vs. actual 93.67.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	10.70	Lamar Jackson	10.70
WR	Michael Pittman Jr.	9.80	Michael Pittman Jr.	9.80
WR	Donovan Peoples-Jones	11.38	Donovan Peoples-Jones	11.38
RB	Derrick Henry	18.80	Derrick Henry	18.80
RB	Kenyan Drake	0.50	Antonio Gibson	18.26
TE	Kyle Pitts Sr.	3.90	Kyle Pitts Sr.	3.90
W/R/T	Rashod Bateman	8.20	Khalil Herbert	16.68
W/R/T	George Pickens	18.10	George Pickens	18.10
DEF	Dolphins	12.29	Dolphins	12.29

Carried by One Guy: Derrick Henry, 18.80 points (20.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.50 points left. Optimal 133.08 vs. actual 127.58.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	15.76	Aaron Rodgers	15.76
WR	Terry McLaurin	18.30	Terry McLaurin	18.30
WR	Garrett Wilson	6.40	Garrett Wilson	6.40
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	28.60	Aaron Jones Sr.	28.60
RB	Nick Chubb	18.70	Nick Chubb	18.70
TE	T.J. Hockenson	8.80	T.J. Hockenson	8.80
W/R/T	Courtland Sutton	5.30	Zay Jones	10.80
W/R/T	Rhamondre Stevenson	23.80	Rhamondre Stevenson	23.80
DEF	Buccaneers	1.92	Buccaneers	1.92

Carried by One Guy: Aaron Jones Sr., 28.60 points (22.4% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 18 – 24, 2022

Miller

104.81

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

112.82

Rank 8; +0.5 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.32 points left. Optimal 112.13 vs. actual 104.81.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kenny Pickett	10.28	Kenny Pickett	10.28
WR	Tyreek Hill	14.20	Tyreek Hill	14.20
WR	Rondale Moore	4.10	Darnell Mooney	8.30
RB	Jonathan Taylor	15.50	Jonathan Taylor	15.50
RB	Travis Etienne Jr.	20.90	Travis Etienne Jr.	20.90
TE	Pat Freiermuth	15.50	Pat Freiermuth	15.50
W/R/T	Damien Harris	2.00	Rachaad White	5.12
W/R/T	Brian Robinson	10.60	Brian Robinson	10.60
DEF	Raiders	11.73	Raiders	11.73

Carried by One Guy: Travis Etienne Jr., 20.90 points (19.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: DeAndre Hopkins scored 22.30; zeroing that score creates a win.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.50 points left. Optimal 123.32 vs. actual 112.82.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Trevor Lawrence	20.70	Trevor Lawrence	20.70
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	22.30	DeAndre Hopkins	22.30
WR	Chris Olave	19.60	Chris Olave	19.60
RB	Christian McCaffrey	8.20	Christian McCaffrey	8.20
RB	Dameon Pierce	15.70	Dameon Pierce	15.70
TE	Gerald Everett	11.30	Gerald Everett	11.30
W/R/T	Deebo Samuel Sr.	9.40	Deebo Samuel Sr.	9.40
W/R/T	Justice Hill	0.60	Greg Dulcich	11.10
DEF	Broncos	5.02	Broncos	5.02

Carried by One Guy: DeAndre Hopkins, 22.30 points (19.8% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 18 – 24, 2022

Big Hut

124.81

Rank 6; -1.5 luck points

Kev

135.88

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.04 points left. Optimal 136.85 vs. actual 124.81.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Herbert	18.12	Justin Fields	23.36
WR	Drake London	1.90	Mecole Hardman Jr.	28.08
WR	Romeo Doubs	0.00	Drake London	1.90
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	17.70	Ezekiel Elliott	17.70
RB	Austin Ekeler	36.70	Austin Ekeler	36.70
TE	Cade Otton	10.40	Cade Otton	10.40
W/R/T	Mecole Hardman Jr.	28.08	Jerick McKinnon	6.80
W/R/T	Jakobi Meyers	11.40	Jakobi Meyers	11.40
DEF	Saints	0.51	Saints	0.51

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Austin Ekeler, 36.70 points (29.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Eno Benjamin scored 23.30; zeroing that score creates a win.

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.40 points left. Optimal 142.28 vs. actual 135.88.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	9.92	Matt Ryan	9.92
WR	Curtis Samuel	12.90	Curtis Samuel	12.90
WR	Wan'Dale Robinson	11.00	Wan'Dale Robinson	11.00
RB	Alvin Kamara	17.50	Alvin Kamara	17.50
RB	Eno Benjamin	23.30	Eno Benjamin	23.30
TE	George Kittle	21.80	George Kittle	21.80
W/R/T	Leonard Fournette	4.60	David Montgomery	12.20
W/R/T	David Montgomery	12.20	Tyler Allgeier	11.00
DEF	Cowboys	22.66	Cowboys	22.66

Carried by One Guy: Eno Benjamin, 23.30 points (17.1% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 18 – 24, 2022

Adam

90.56

Rank 11; +3.5 luck points

Horgan

63.71

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.90 points left. Optimal 92.46 vs. actual 90.56.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Geno Smith	13.10	Geno Smith	13.10
WR	Brandin Cooks	8.60	Brandin Cooks	8.60
WR	Tee Higgins	14.30	Tee Higgins	14.30
RB	J.D. McKissic	0.40	Chase Edmonds	1.70
RB	Chase Edmonds	1.70	Mike Boone	2.30
TE	David Njoku	14.10	David Njoku	14.10
W/R/T	Robert Tonyan	6.20	Robert Tonyan	6.20
W/R/T	Parris Campbell	23.00	Parris Campbell	23.00
DEF	Packers	9.16	Packers	9.16

Carried by One Guy: Parris Campbell, 23.00 points (25.4% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 22.40 points left. Optimal 86.11 vs. actual 63.71.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	11.70	Tom Brady	11.70
WR	Chris Godwin Jr.	11.50	Chris Godwin Jr.	11.50
WR	Michael Gallup	0.00	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	16.10
RB	AJ Dillon	1.50	Kareem Hunt	7.80
RB	Najee Harris	11.00	Najee Harris	11.00
TE	Evan Engram	10.70	Evan Engram	10.70
W/R/T	Keenan Allen	3.10	Keenan Allen	3.10
W/R/T	Hunter Renfrow	8.50	Hunter Renfrow	8.50
DEF	Bengals	5.71	Bengals	5.71

Carried by One Guy: Tom Brady, 11.70 points (18.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	7–0	4.846	+2.5	+0.192	1 / 0
Martin	2–5	3.615	-5.0	-0.385	0 / 2
Miller	4–3	3.462	+0.5	+0.038	1 / 0
Demich	3–4	4.000	-1.0	-0.077	0 / 2
Krajcik	4–3	4.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Big Hut	2–5	3.692	-1.5	-0.115	0 / 1
Niz	3–4	5.231	-9.5	-0.731	0 / 3
Josh	3–4	3.769	-4.5	-0.346	0 / 1
Adam	3–4	1.385	+8.5	+0.654	3 / 0
Fischer	3–4	2.538	+3.5	+0.269	2 / 1
Nevans	5–2	4.154	+3.0	+0.231	1 / 1
Joe Shore	4–3	3.846	-2.0	-0.154	1 / 1
Kev	4–3	3.615	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 0
Horgan	2–5	0.846	+6.0	+0.462	2 / 0

2022 week 7 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Krajcik lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Niz lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

Nevans lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 7