2022 week 4 · Luck Factor

Regular

Sep 27 – Oct 3, 2022

j-mart

108.01

Rank 10; +2.5 luck points

Miller

99.14

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.62 points left. Optimal 116.63 vs. actual 108.01.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	19.84	Matt Ryan	19.84
WR	Mike Williams	21.00	Mike Williams	21.00
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	12.10	Ja'Marr Chase	12.10
RB	Saquon Barkley	20.20	Saquon Barkley	20.20
RB	Tony Pollard	1.80	Kenny Gainwell	8.70
TE	Darren Waller	5.40	Darren Waller	5.40
W/R/T	Tyler Lockett	13.24	Tyler Lockett	13.24
W/R/T	Jaylen Waddle	5.90	Tyler Boyd	7.62
DEF	Bills	8.53	Bills	8.53

Carried by One Guy: Mike Williams, 21.00 points (19.4% of positive starter points).

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 26.02 points left. Optimal 125.16 vs. actual 99.14.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	15.96	Jalen Hurts	15.96
WR	Tyreek Hill	27.90	Tyreek Hill	27.90
WR	Gabe Davis	2.30	Darnell Mooney	13.40
RB	Jonathan Taylor	3.30	Dontrell Hilliard	5.80
RB	Travis Etienne Jr.	3.20	Rachaad White	15.62
TE	Pat Freiermuth	15.50	Pat Freiermuth	15.50
W/R/T	Robert Woods	13.00	Robert Woods	13.00
W/R/T	Damien Harris	15.40	Damien Harris	15.40
DEF	Rams	2.58	Rams	2.58

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Tyreek Hill, 27.90 points (28.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Mike Williams scored 21.00; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 27 – Oct 3, 2022

Demich

129.02

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Adam

110.39

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.96 points left. Optimal 130.98 vs. actual 129.02.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kirk Cousins	12.92	Kirk Cousins	12.92
WR	Diontae Johnson	4.20	Diontae Johnson	4.20
WR	Justin Jefferson	33.00	Justin Jefferson	33.00
RB	Jamaal Williams	25.90	Jamaal Williams	25.90
RB	Michael Carter	4.90	Michael Carter	4.90
TE	Travis Kelce	24.20	Travis Kelce	24.20
W/R/T	Greg Dortch	1.84	Jerry Jeudy	15.30
W/R/T	Jerry Jeudy	15.30	Treylon Burks	3.80
DEF	Vikings	6.76	Vikings	6.76

Carried by One Guy: Justin Jefferson, 33.00 points (25.6% of positive starter points).

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.60 points left. Optimal 118.99 vs. actual 110.39.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Marcus Mariota	3.86	Marcus Mariota	3.86
WR	Brandin Cooks	18.70	Brandin Cooks	18.70
WR	Josh Reynolds	21.10	Josh Reynolds	21.10
RB	Cordarrelle Patterson	9.80	Cordarrelle Patterson	9.80
RB	Chase Edmonds	10.00	Chase Edmonds	10.00
TE	David Njoku	9.70	David Njoku	9.70
W/R/T	Mack Hollins	6.30	Rex Burkhead	14.90
W/R/T	Deebo Samuel Sr.	25.70	Deebo Samuel Sr.	25.70
DEF	Steelers	5.23	Steelers	5.23

Carried by One Guy: Deebo Samuel Sr., 25.70 points (23.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Justin Jefferson scored 33.00; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 27 – Oct 3, 2022

Krajcik

138.53

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

118.43

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 28.38 points left. Optimal 166.91 vs. actual 138.53.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	22.88	Jared Goff	35.22
WR	DK Metcalf	23.90	DK Metcalf	23.90
WR	CeeDee Lamb	21.70	CeeDee Lamb	21.70
RB	Dalvin Cook	10.60	Raheem Mostert	10.94
RB	James Robinson	2.90	Dalvin Cook	10.60
TE	Tyler Higbee	17.30	Tyler Higbee	17.30
W/R/T	Amari Cooper	1.90	Devin Duvernay	9.90
W/R/T	Breece Hall	15.80	Breece Hall	15.80
DEF	49ers	21.55	49ers	21.55

Carried by One Guy: DK Metcalf, 23.90 points (17.3% of positive starter points).

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.90 points left. Optimal 126.33 vs. actual 118.43.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Herbert	23.10	Justin Herbert	23.10
WR	Hollywood Brown	20.80	Hollywood Brown	20.80
WR	DeVonta Smith	4.70	Garrett Wilson	6.10
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	10.10	Ezekiel Elliott	10.10
RB	Austin Ekeler	34.90	Austin Ekeler	34.90
TE	Dawson Knox	7.00	Dawson Knox	7.00
W/R/T	James Conner	10.70	James Conner	10.70
W/R/T	Drake London	3.70	Robert Tonyan	10.20
DEF	Saints	3.43	Saints	3.43

Carried by One Guy: Austin Ekeler, 34.90 points (29.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: DK Metcalf scored 23.90; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 27 – Oct 3, 2022

Fischer

90.73

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

183.57

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 19.40 points left. Optimal 110.13 vs. actual 90.73.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	13.06	Lamar Jackson	13.06
WR	Michael Pittman Jr.	6.10	George Pickens	18.20
WR	Rashod Bateman	4.70	Alec Pierce	12.00
RB	Derrick Henry	25.70	Derrick Henry	25.70
RB	Khalil Herbert	11.10	Khalil Herbert	11.10
TE	Kyle Pitts Sr.	3.50	Kyle Pitts Sr.	3.50
W/R/T	Antonio Gibson	9.30	Antonio Gibson	9.30
W/R/T	Elijah Moore	8.50	Elijah Moore	8.50
DEF	Packers	8.77	Packers	8.77

Carried by One Guy: Derrick Henry, 25.70 points (28.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 183.57 vs. actual 183.57.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	6.76	Matthew Stafford	6.76
WR	A.J. Brown	14.50	A.J. Brown	14.50
WR	Tee Higgins	27.40	Tee Higgins	27.40
RB	Christian McCaffrey	25.80	Christian McCaffrey	25.80
RB	Dameon Pierce	27.90	Dameon Pierce	27.90
TE	Gerald Everett	17.10	Gerald Everett	17.10
W/R/T	Rashaad Penny	30.70	Rashaad Penny	30.70
W/R/T	Chris Olave	16.70	Chris Olave	16.70
DEF	Eagles	16.71	Eagles	16.71

Carried by One Guy: Rashaad Penny, 30.70 points (16.7% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 27 – Oct 3, 2022

Niz

142.60

Rank 3; -4.5 luck points

Nevans

145.55

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.00 points left. Optimal 157.60 vs. actual 142.60.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	20.08	Joe Burrow	20.08
WR	Davante Adams	21.50	Davante Adams	21.50
WR	Stefon Diggs	10.20	Nico Collins	11.20
RB	Josh Jacobs	36.50	Josh Jacobs	36.50
RB	Devin Singletary	11.60	Devin Singletary	11.60
TE	Dallas Goedert	12.20	Dallas Goedert	12.20
W/R/T	Christian Kirk	8.30	J.K. Dobbins	22.30
W/R/T	Jahan Dotson	13.30	Jahan Dotson	13.30
DEF	Chargers	8.92	Chargers	8.92

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Josh Jacobs, 36.50 points (25.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: T.J. Hockenson scored 41.90; zeroing that score creates a win.

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.20 points left. Optimal 155.75 vs. actual 145.55.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	16.14	Aaron Rodgers	16.14
WR	Adam Thielen	15.20	Adam Thielen	15.20
WR	Terry McLaurin	3.50	Romeo Doubs	13.70
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	16.50	Aaron Jones Sr.	16.50
RB	Nick Chubb	22.70	Nick Chubb	22.70
TE	T.J. Hockenson	41.90	T.J. Hockenson	41.90
W/R/T	Courtland Sutton	16.20	Courtland Sutton	16.20
W/R/T	Rhamondre Stevenson	12.90	Rhamondre Stevenson	12.90
DEF	Buccaneers	0.51	Buccaneers	0.51

Carried by One Guy: T.J. Hockenson, 41.90 points (28.8% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 27 – Oct 3, 2022

Martin

125.92

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Kev

98.60

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 25.48 points left. Optimal 151.40 vs. actual 125.92.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Derek Carr	11.52	Russell Wilson	27.48
WR	Cooper Kupp	28.20	Cooper Kupp	28.20
WR	DJ Moore	12.10	DJ Moore	12.10
RB	Miles Sanders	31.60	Miles Sanders	31.60
RB	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	22.40	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	22.40
TE	Mark Andrews	3.50	Mark Andrews	3.50
W/R/T	Brandon Aiyuk	7.70	Isaiah McKenzie	13.02
W/R/T	Joshua Palmer	3.50	Brandon Aiyuk	7.70
DEF	Ravens	5.40	Ravens	5.40

Carried by One Guy: Miles Sanders, 31.60 points (25.1% of positive starter points).

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 98.60 vs. actual 98.60.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	23.52	Josh Allen	23.52
WR	DeVante Parker	10.40	DeVante Parker	10.40
WR	Curtis Samuel	7.80	Curtis Samuel	7.80
RB	Leonard Fournette	18.40	Leonard Fournette	18.40
RB	Tyler Allgeier	11.40	Tyler Allgeier	11.40
TE	George Kittle	4.40	George Kittle	4.40
W/R/T	Marvin Jones Jr.	0.00	Marvin Jones Jr.	0.00
W/R/T	Juwan Johnson	6.30	Juwan Johnson	6.30
DEF	Giants	16.38	Giants	16.38

Carried by One Guy: Josh Allen, 23.52 points (23.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Miles Sanders scored 31.60; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 27 – Oct 3, 2022

Josh

131.39

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

91.77

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.12 points left. Optimal 149.51 vs. actual 131.39.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	23.36	Patrick Mahomes	23.36
WR	Mike Evans	32.30	Mike Evans	32.30
WR	Allen Lazard	19.60	Allen Lazard	19.60
RB	Joe Mixon	17.40	Joe Mixon	17.40
RB	Javonte Williams	3.70	Isiah Pacheco	8.12
TE	Zach Ertz	16.70	Zach Ertz	16.70
W/R/T	Jarvis Landry	4.70	Corey Davis	18.40
W/R/T	JuJu Smith-Schuster	9.60	JuJu Smith-Schuster	9.60
DEF	Chiefs	4.03	Chiefs	4.03

Carried by One Guy: Mike Evans, 32.30 points (24.6% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.50 points left. Optimal 102.27 vs. actual 91.77.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	27.40	Tom Brady	27.40
WR	Chris Godwin Jr.	12.90	Chris Godwin Jr.	12.90
WR	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	9.30	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	9.30
RB	AJ Dillon	9.40	Alexander Mattison	8.80
RB	Najee Harris	7.40	AJ Dillon	9.40
TE	Irv Smith Jr.	5.30	Irv Smith Jr.	5.30
W/R/T	Kareem Hunt	8.80	Kareem Hunt	8.80
W/R/T	Cam Akers	1.30	Michael Gallup	10.40
DEF	Cowboys	9.97	Cowboys	9.97

Carried by One Guy: Tom Brady, 27.40 points (29.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	4–0	2.615	+2.5	+0.192	1 / 0
Martin	2–2	2.462	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1
Miller	2–2	1.692	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Demich	2–2	2.154	-0.5	-0.038	0 / 1
Krajcik	3–1	2.846	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Big Hut	1–3	2.154	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Niz	1–3	2.923	-8.0	-0.615	0 / 2
Josh	1–3	1.769	-4.5	-0.346	0 / 1
Adam	2–2	1.077	+5.0	+0.385	2 / 0
Fischer	2–2	1.692	+2.0	+0.154	1 / 1
Nevans	3–1	2.692	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Joe Shore	2–2	2.231	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1
Kev	1–3	0.923	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 0
Horgan	2–2	0.769	+6.0	+0.462	2 / 0

2022 week 4 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Miller lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Niz lineup

Nevans lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 4