2022 week 13 · Luck Factor

Regular

Nov 29 – Dec 5, 2022

j-mart

136.91

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Nevans

118.09

Rank 6; -1.5 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.20 points left. Optimal 145.11 vs. actual 136.91.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	16.80	Dak Prescott	16.80
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	16.70	Tyler Lockett	29.80
WR	Jaylen Waddle	1.90	Ja'Marr Chase	16.70
RB	Saquon Barkley	19.10	Saquon Barkley	19.10
RB	Tony Pollard	24.60	Tony Pollard	24.60
TE	Gerald Everett	13.00	Gerald Everett	13.00
W/R/T	Tyler Lockett	29.80	Latavius Murray	10.10
W/R/T	Tyler Boyd	10.00	Tyler Boyd	10.00
DEF	Steelers	5.01	Steelers	5.01

Carried by One Guy: Tyler Lockett, 29.80 points (21.8% of positive starter points).

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.86 points left. Optimal 134.95 vs. actual 118.09.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	17.14	Tom Brady	17.14
WR	Adam Thielen	4.70	Corey Davis	13.50
WR	Terry McLaurin	26.50	Terry McLaurin	26.50
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	10.00	Aaron Jones Sr.	10.00
RB	Nick Chubb	8.00	Nick Chubb	8.00
TE	T.J. Hockenson	7.30	T.J. Hockenson	7.30
W/R/T	Rhamondre Stevenson	13.80	Rhamondre Stevenson	13.80
W/R/T	Garrett Wilson	26.20	Garrett Wilson	26.20
DEF	Buccaneers	4.45	Broncos	12.51

Carried by One Guy: Terry McLaurin, 26.50 points (22.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Tyler Lockett scored 29.80; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 29 – Dec 5, 2022

Martin

75.31

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Niz

161.59

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 75.31 vs. actual 75.31.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Fields	19.26	Justin Fields	19.26
WR	Julio Jones	5.80	Julio Jones	5.80
WR	Isaiah McKenzie	9.40	Isaiah McKenzie	9.40
RB	Nyheim Miller-Hines	3.40	Nyheim Miller-Hines	3.40
RB	Miles Sanders	11.80	Miles Sanders	11.80
TE	Mark Andrews	9.40	Mark Andrews	9.40
W/R/T	Brandon Aiyuk	9.60	Brandon Aiyuk	9.60
W/R/T	JaMycal Hasty	0.00	JaMycal Hasty	0.00
DEF	Ravens	6.65	Ravens	6.65

Carried by One Guy: Justin Fields, 19.26 points (25.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.20 points left. Optimal 168.79 vs. actual 161.59.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	30.04	Joe Burrow	30.04
WR	Davante Adams	39.70	Davante Adams	39.70
WR	Stefon Diggs	22.20	Stefon Diggs	22.20
RB	Josh Jacobs	23.00	Josh Jacobs	23.00
RB	Devin Singletary	11.10	Devin Singletary	11.10
TE	Mike Gesicki	0.00	Hunter Henry	3.30
W/R/T	Christian Kirk	18.40	Christian Kirk	18.40
W/R/T	Nico Collins	12.50	Jahan Dotson	16.40
DEF	Patriots	4.65	Patriots	4.65

Carried by One Guy: Davante Adams, 39.70 points (24.6% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 29 – Dec 5, 2022

Miller

158.84

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Demich

107.80

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.20 points left. Optimal 168.04 vs. actual 158.84.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	36.40	Jalen Hurts	36.40
WR	Tyreek Hill	31.60	Tyreek Hill	31.60
WR	Gabe Davis	9.50	Gabe Davis	9.50
RB	Travis Etienne Jr.	7.60	Brian Robinson	13.10
RB	Brian Robinson	13.10	Bam Knight	16.80
TE	Pat Freiermuth	10.60	Pat Freiermuth	10.60
W/R/T	Jonathan Taylor	13.30	Jonathan Taylor	13.30
W/R/T	Rachaad White	16.90	Rachaad White	16.90
DEF	49ers	19.84	49ers	19.84

Carried by One Guy: Jalen Hurts, 36.40 points (22.9% of positive starter points).

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.86 points left. Optimal 112.66 vs. actual 107.80.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Mike White	19.46	Mike White	19.46
WR	Justin Jefferson	18.60	Justin Jefferson	18.60
WR	Christian Watson	24.40	Christian Watson	24.40
RB	Jamaal Williams	9.50	Jamaal Williams	9.50
RB	Kenneth Walker	3.60	Kenneth Walker	3.60
TE	Travis Kelce	7.60	Travis Kelce	7.60
W/R/T	DeAndre Carter	5.64	Diontae Johnson	11.00
W/R/T	Diontae Johnson	11.00	Jerry Jeudy	10.50
DEF	Seahawks	8.00	Seahawks	8.00

Carried by One Guy: Christian Watson, 24.40 points (22.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Nov 29 – Dec 5, 2022

Big Hut

107.40

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Adam

126.88

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.80 points left. Optimal 120.20 vs. actual 107.40.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Herbert	20.10	Justin Herbert	20.10
WR	Demarcus Robinson	11.10	Demarcus Robinson	11.10
WR	DeVonta Smith	23.20	DeVonta Smith	23.20
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	18.10	Ezekiel Elliott	18.10
RB	Austin Ekeler	13.20	Austin Ekeler	13.20
TE	Dawson Knox	0.00	Dawson Knox	0.00
W/R/T	Marvin Jones Jr.	2.70	Jerick McKinnon	14.00
W/R/T	Jerick McKinnon	14.00	Drake London	15.50
DEF	Vikings	5.00	Vikings	5.00

Carried by One Guy: DeVonta Smith, 23.20 points (21.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Browns scored 31.34; zeroing that score creates a win.

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.44 points left. Optimal 145.32 vs. actual 126.88.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Geno Smith	24.98	Geno Smith	24.98
WR	Richie James	5.36	Tee Higgins	12.50
WR	Tee Higgins	12.50	Quez Watkins	8.70
RB	Cordarrelle Patterson	6.00	Cordarrelle Patterson	6.00
RB	D'Andre Swift	21.10	D'Andre Swift	21.10
TE	Cole Kmet	13.20	Cole Kmet	13.20
W/R/T	Mack Hollins	8.50	Mack Hollins	8.50
W/R/T	Jaylen Warren	3.90	Cam Akers	19.00
DEF	Browns	31.34	Browns	31.34

Carried by One Guy: Browns, 31.34 points (24.7% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 29 – Dec 5, 2022

Fischer

81.04

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

101.04

Rank 11; +3.5 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.24 points left. Optimal 88.28 vs. actual 81.04.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Derek Carr	16.00	Derek Carr	16.00
WR	Donovan Peoples-Jones	15.12	Michael Pittman Jr.	3.60
WR	George Pickens	1.20	Donovan Peoples-Jones	15.12
RB	Derrick Henry	5.80	Derrick Henry	5.80
RB	Dameon Pierce	12.50	Dameon Pierce	12.50
TE	Foster Moreau	4.20	Foster Moreau	4.20
W/R/T	Michael Pittman Jr.	3.60	Antonio Gibson	8.44
W/R/T	Joshua Palmer	13.00	Joshua Palmer	13.00
DEF	Giants	9.62	Giants	9.62

Carried by One Guy: Derek Carr, 16.00 points (19.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: AJ Dillon scored 20.90; zeroing that score creates a win.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 19.92 points left. Optimal 120.96 vs. actual 101.04.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Deshaun Watson	5.34	Trevor Lawrence	16.36
WR	Keenan Allen	20.80	Keenan Allen	20.80
WR	Chris Godwin Jr.	14.30	Chris Godwin Jr.	14.30
RB	Najee Harris	10.20	Alexander Mattison	9.80
RB	Kyren Williams	0.90	Najee Harris	10.20
TE	Logan Thomas	5.00	Logan Thomas	5.00
W/R/T	Michael Gallup	18.30	Michael Gallup	18.30
W/R/T	AJ Dillon	20.90	AJ Dillon	20.90
DEF	Bills	5.30	Bills	5.30

Carried by One Guy: AJ Dillon, 20.90 points (20.7% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 29 – Dec 5, 2022

Krajcik

159.62

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

111.56

Rank 7; -0.5 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.20 points left. Optimal 169.82 vs. actual 159.62.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jared Goff	23.60	Jared Goff	23.60
WR	DK Metcalf	28.70	DK Metcalf	28.70
WR	CeeDee Lamb	20.40	CeeDee Lamb	20.40
RB	Raheem Mostert	3.50	Dalvin Cook	16.30
RB	Dalvin Cook	16.30	Ty Johnson	10.10
TE	Evan Engram	14.00	Evan Engram	14.00
W/R/T	Amari Cooper	8.00	Devin Duvernay	11.60
W/R/T	Amon-Ra St. Brown	36.60	Amon-Ra St. Brown	36.60
DEF	Commanders	8.52	Commanders	8.52

Carried by One Guy: Amon-Ra St. Brown, 36.60 points (22.9% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.80 points left. Optimal 120.36 vs. actual 111.56.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	1.34	Lamar Jackson	1.34
WR	A.J. Brown	33.90	A.J. Brown	33.90
WR	Chris Olave	10.50	Chris Olave	10.50
RB	Christian McCaffrey	28.60	Ameer Abdullah	0.40
RB	Jeff Wilson Jr.	0.30	Christian McCaffrey	28.60
TE	Daniel Bellinger	7.40	Daniel Bellinger	7.40
W/R/T	Deebo Samuel Sr.	12.30	Deebo Samuel Sr.	12.30
W/R/T	Chase Claypool	5.80	Greg Dulcich	14.50
DEF	Eagles	11.42	Eagles	11.42

Carried by One Guy: A.J. Brown, 33.90 points (30.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Nov 29 – Dec 5, 2022

Josh

105.11

Rank 10; +2.5 luck points

Kev

90.26

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 30.10 points left. Optimal 135.21 vs. actual 105.11.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	19.82	Patrick Mahomes	19.82
WR	Mike Evans	9.90	Darius Slayton	15.00
WR	JuJu Smith-Schuster	6.50	Alec Pierce	18.60
RB	Samaje Perine	23.50	Samaje Perine	23.50
RB	David Montgomery	16.70	David Montgomery	16.70
TE	Hayden Hurst	3.20	Hayden Hurst	3.20
W/R/T	Zay Jones	3.60	James Cook III	16.50
W/R/T	Isiah Pacheco	19.52	Isiah Pacheco	19.52
DEF	Jets	2.37	Jets	2.37

Carried by One Guy: Samaje Perine, 23.50 points (22.4% of positive starter points).

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 20.30 points left. Optimal 110.56 vs. actual 90.26.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	16.92	Josh Allen	16.92
WR	Allen Lazard	11.70	Allen Lazard	11.70
WR	Treylon Burks	9.50	Treylon Burks	9.50
RB	Leonard Fournette	14.10	Leonard Fournette	14.10
RB	Alvin Kamara	5.70	Kenny Gainwell	8.30
TE	George Kittle	4.20	Dalton Schultz	5.30
W/R/T	Dalton Schultz	5.30	Curtis Samuel	14.60
W/R/T	Skyy Moore	1.20	Parris Campbell	8.50
DEF	Cowboys	21.64	Cowboys	21.64

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Cowboys, 21.64 points (24.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Samaje Perine scored 23.50; zeroing that score creates a win.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	10–3	7.385	+2.5	+0.192	1 / 0
Martin	5–8	5.385	-3.5	-0.269	1 / 2
Miller	8–5	7.308	-2.0	-0.154	1 / 1
Demich	8–5	8.462	-0.5	-0.038	1 / 2
Krajcik	8–5	8.000	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1
Big Hut	4–9	5.923	-1.0	-0.077	1 / 1
Niz	8–5	10.231	-9.5	-0.731	0 / 3
Josh	6–7	6.154	-4.5	-0.346	3 / 2
Adam	6–7	3.615	+10.0	+0.769	5 / 1
Fischer	4–9	4.769	+3.5	+0.269	2 / 1
Nevans	8–5	8.077	+1.0	+0.077	1 / 3
Joe Shore	7–6	7.385	-2.5	-0.192	2 / 3
Kev	5–8	5.846	-2.5	-0.192	1 / 2
Horgan	4–9	2.462	+9.5	+0.731	3 / 0

2022 week 13 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Nevans lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Niz lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Demich lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Kev lineup

Cumulative totals through week 13