2022 week 12 · Luck Factor

Regular

Nov 22 – 28, 2022

j-mart

101.82

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

120.69

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.50 points left. Optimal 115.32 vs. actual 101.82.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	14.84	Dak Prescott	14.84
WR	Tyler Boyd	3.60	Van Jefferson	11.90
WR	Jaylen Waddle	13.50	Jaylen Waddle	13.50
RB	Saquon Barkley	15.20	D'Onta Foreman	13.30
RB	Tony Pollard	8.10	Saquon Barkley	15.20
TE	Gerald Everett	7.80	Gerald Everett	7.80
W/R/T	Latavius Murray	10.80	Latavius Murray	10.80
W/R/T	Tyler Lockett	15.80	Tyler Lockett	15.80
DEF	Steelers	12.18	Steelers	12.18

Carried by One Guy: Tyler Lockett, 15.80 points (15.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Justin Herbert scored 28.76; zeroing that score creates a win.

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.30 points left. Optimal 126.99 vs. actual 120.69.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Herbert	28.76	Justin Herbert	28.76
WR	Jakobi Meyers	9.20	Jakobi Meyers	9.20
WR	DeVonta Smith	9.00	DeVonta Smith	9.00
RB	James Conner	23.00	James Conner	23.00
RB	Austin Ekeler	25.00	Austin Ekeler	25.00
TE	Dawson Knox	3.70	Dawson Knox	3.70
W/R/T	Ezekiel Elliott	16.50	Marvin Jones Jr.	11.20
W/R/T	Drake London	4.90	Ezekiel Elliott	16.50
DEF	Seahawks	0.63	Seahawks	0.63

Carried by One Guy: Justin Herbert, 28.76 points (23.8% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 22 – 28, 2022

Demich

133.72

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik

132.35

Rank 5; -2.5 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.80 points left. Optimal 152.52 vs. actual 133.72.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jimmy Garoppolo	13.28	Jimmy Garoppolo	13.28
WR	Justin Jefferson	31.34	Justin Jefferson	31.34
WR	Christian Watson	23.00	Christian Watson	23.00
RB	Jamaal Williams	10.60	Jamaal Williams	10.60
RB	Kenneth Walker	16.90	Kenneth Walker	16.90
TE	Travis Kelce	15.70	Travis Kelce	15.70
W/R/T	Michael Carter	5.60	DeAndre Carter	20.80
W/R/T	Elijah Mitchell	6.30	Diontae Johnson	9.90
DEF	Chiefs	11.00	Chiefs	11.00

Carried by One Guy: Justin Jefferson, 31.34 points (23.4% of positive starter points).

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 132.35 vs. actual 132.35.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	25.24	Kyler Murray	25.24
WR	DK Metcalf	20.00	DK Metcalf	20.00
WR	CeeDee Lamb	19.70	CeeDee Lamb	19.70
RB	Dalvin Cook	9.60	Dalvin Cook	9.60
RB	Joshua Kelley	4.00	Joshua Kelley	4.00
TE	Tyler Higbee	0.00	Tyler Higbee	0.00
W/R/T	Amari Cooper	16.40	Amari Cooper	16.40
W/R/T	Amon-Ra St. Brown	29.90	Amon-Ra St. Brown	29.90
DEF	Commanders	7.51	Commanders	7.51

Carried by One Guy: Amon-Ra St. Brown, 29.90 points (22.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Justin Jefferson scored 31.34; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 22 – 28, 2022

Niz

133.47

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Adam

132.52

Rank 4; -3.5 luck points

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.35 points left. Optimal 150.82 vs. actual 133.47.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	18.00	Joe Burrow	18.00
WR	Davante Adams	14.40	Davante Adams	14.40
WR	Stefon Diggs	21.70	Stefon Diggs	21.70
RB	Josh Jacobs	50.30	Josh Jacobs	50.30
RB	Devin Singletary	9.00	Devin Singletary	9.00
TE	Mike Gesicki	0.00	Hunter Henry	15.30
W/R/T	Christian Kirk	8.10	Christian Kirk	8.10
W/R/T	Nico Collins	10.40	Nico Collins	10.40
DEF	Patriots	1.57	Titans	3.62

Carried by One Guy: Josh Jacobs, 50.30 points (37.7% of positive starter points).

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.80 points left. Optimal 141.32 vs. actual 132.52.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Geno Smith	21.32	Geno Smith	21.32
WR	Brandin Cooks	11.10	Brandin Cooks	11.10
WR	Tee Higgins	26.40	Tee Higgins	26.40
RB	Cordarrelle Patterson	10.28	Cordarrelle Patterson	10.28
RB	D'Andre Swift	10.30	D'Andre Swift	10.30
TE	David Njoku	13.90	David Njoku	13.90
W/R/T	Mack Hollins	16.30	Mack Hollins	16.30
W/R/T	Cam Akers	3.70	Quez Watkins	12.50
DEF	Dolphins	19.22	Dolphins	19.22

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Tee Higgins, 26.40 points (19.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Josh Jacobs scored 50.30; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 22 – 28, 2022

Josh

111.06

Rank 10; +2.5 luck points

Fischer

101.87

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 27.20 points left. Optimal 138.26 vs. actual 111.06.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	20.40	Patrick Mahomes	20.40
WR	Mike Evans	5.10	Zay Jones	29.50
WR	JuJu Smith-Schuster	6.80	DJ Chark	9.60
RB	Samaje Perine	19.30	Samaje Perine	19.30
RB	David Montgomery	14.30	David Montgomery	14.30
TE	Hayden Hurst	11.70	Hayden Hurst	11.70
W/R/T	Darius Slayton	9.30	Darius Slayton	9.30
W/R/T	Isiah Pacheco	15.60	Isiah Pacheco	15.60
DEF	Jets	8.56	Jets	8.56

Carried by One Guy: Patrick Mahomes, 20.40 points (18.4% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.16 points left. Optimal 109.03 vs. actual 101.87.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Derek Carr	20.80	Kirk Cousins	21.86
WR	Donovan Peoples-Jones	5.10	Donovan Peoples-Jones	5.10
WR	Joshua Palmer	10.60	Joshua Palmer	10.60
RB	Derrick Henry	14.70	Derrick Henry	14.70
RB	Dameon Pierce	4.60	Antonio Gibson	9.42
TE	Foster Moreau	12.30	Foster Moreau	12.30
W/R/T	Michael Pittman Jr.	19.10	Michael Pittman Jr.	19.10
W/R/T	Antonio Gibson	9.42	George Pickens	10.70
DEF	Colts	5.25	Colts	5.25

Carried by One Guy: Derek Carr, 20.80 points (20.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Patrick Mahomes scored 20.40; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 22 – 28, 2022

Nevans

154.13

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

116.40

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.75 points left. Optimal 161.88 vs. actual 154.13.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	18.04	Tom Brady	18.04
WR	Adam Thielen	21.10	Adam Thielen	21.10
WR	Terry McLaurin	9.30	Courtland Sutton	13.50
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	18.90	Aaron Jones Sr.	18.90
RB	Nick Chubb	22.20	Nick Chubb	22.20
TE	T.J. Hockenson	15.30	T.J. Hockenson	15.30
W/R/T	Rhamondre Stevenson	20.20	Rhamondre Stevenson	20.20
W/R/T	Garrett Wilson	26.40	Garrett Wilson	26.40
DEF	Broncos	2.69	Buccaneers	6.24

Carried by One Guy: Garrett Wilson, 26.40 points (17.1% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.70 points left. Optimal 131.10 vs. actual 116.40.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Trevor Lawrence	26.94	Trevor Lawrence	26.94
WR	Chris Godwin Jr.	31.00	Chris Godwin Jr.	31.00
WR	Michael Gallup	11.30	Michael Gallup	11.30
RB	Najee Harris	10.90	Najee Harris	10.90
RB	Kyren Williams	9.00	Kyren Williams	9.00
TE	Juwan Johnson	0.00	Juwan Johnson	0.00
W/R/T	Keenan Allen	15.90	Keenan Allen	15.90
W/R/T	Kareem Hunt	3.10	AJ Dillon	17.80
DEF	Bills	8.26	Bills	8.26

Carried by One Guy: Chris Godwin Jr., 31.00 points (26.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Nov 22 – 28, 2022

Martin

114.85

Rank 9; +1.5 luck points

Joe Shore

102.97

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 27.08 points left. Optimal 141.93 vs. actual 114.85.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	8.48	Russell Wilson	8.48
WR	Isaiah McKenzie	22.30	Isaiah McKenzie	22.30
WR	DJ Moore	22.30	DJ Moore	22.30
RB	Nyheim Miller-Hines	0.82	Miles Sanders	33.00
RB	Miles Sanders	33.00	JaMycal Hasty	20.50
TE	Mark Andrews	11.00	Mark Andrews	11.00
W/R/T	Brandon Aiyuk	11.50	Julio Jones	8.50
W/R/T	Trey McBride	1.10	Brandon Aiyuk	11.50
DEF	Ravens	4.35	Ravens	4.35

Carried by One Guy: Miles Sanders, 33.00 points (28.7% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 102.97 vs. actual 102.97.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	23.06	Lamar Jackson	23.06
WR	A.J. Brown	12.60	A.J. Brown	12.60
WR	Chris Olave	11.20	Chris Olave	11.20
RB	Christian McCaffrey	8.90	Christian McCaffrey	8.90
RB	Jeff Wilson Jr.	12.20	Jeff Wilson Jr.	12.20
TE	Greg Dulcich	3.10	Greg Dulcich	3.10
W/R/T	DeAndre Hopkins	18.70	DeAndre Hopkins	18.70
W/R/T	Deebo Samuel Sr.	7.30	Deebo Samuel Sr.	7.30
DEF	Eagles	5.91	Eagles	5.91

Carried by One Guy: Lamar Jackson, 23.06 points (22.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Miles Sanders scored 33.00; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 22 – 28, 2022

Miller

117.30

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Kev

88.32

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 34.60 points left. Optimal 151.90 vs. actual 117.30.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	31.82	Jalen Hurts	31.82
WR	Tyreek Hill	15.00	Tyreek Hill	15.00
WR	Gabe Davis	7.80	Gabe Davis	7.80
RB	Damien Harris	1.60	Jonathan Taylor	18.80
RB	Travis Etienne Jr.	0.30	Brian Robinson	22.50
TE	Pat Freiermuth	6.90	Pat Freiermuth	6.90
W/R/T	Jonathan Taylor	18.80	Elijah Moore	14.00
W/R/T	Rachaad White	19.90	Rachaad White	19.90
DEF	49ers	15.18	49ers	15.18

Carried by One Guy: Jalen Hurts, 31.82 points (27.1% of positive starter points).

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 24.10 points left. Optimal 112.42 vs. actual 88.32.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	29.92	Josh Allen	29.92
WR	Allen Lazard	4.40	Treylon Burks	17.00
WR	Treylon Burks	17.00	Skyy Moore	6.60
RB	Alvin Kamara	7.00	Alvin Kamara	7.00
RB	Tyler Allgeier	5.40	Kenny Gainwell	11.60
TE	George Kittle	5.60	George Kittle	5.60
W/R/T	Hollywood Brown	10.60	Dalton Schultz	19.10
W/R/T	Parris Campbell	3.40	Hollywood Brown	10.60
DEF	Cowboys	5.00	Cowboys	5.00

Carried by One Guy: Josh Allen, 29.92 points (33.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jalen Hurts scored 31.82; zeroing that score creates a win.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	9–3	6.615	+2.5	+0.192	1 / 0
Martin	5–7	5.385	-3.5	-0.269	1 / 2
Miller	7–5	6.462	-2.0	-0.154	1 / 1
Demich	8–4	8.000	-0.5	-0.038	1 / 2
Krajcik	7–5	7.077	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1
Big Hut	4–8	5.538	-1.0	-0.077	1 / 1
Niz	7–5	9.231	-9.5	-0.731	0 / 3
Josh	5–7	5.846	-7.0	-0.538	2 / 2
Adam	5–7	2.923	+10.0	+0.769	5 / 1
Fischer	4–8	4.692	+3.5	+0.269	2 / 1
Nevans	8–4	7.462	+2.5	+0.192	1 / 2
Joe Shore	7–5	6.846	-2.0	-0.154	2 / 2
Kev	5–7	5.692	-2.5	-0.192	1 / 2
Horgan	3–9	2.231	+6.0	+0.462	2 / 0

2022 week 12 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Krajcik lineup

Regular

Niz lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Nevans lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Kev lineup

Cumulative totals through week 12