2022 week 1 · Luck Factor

Regular

Sep 8 – 12, 2022

j-mart

130.56

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

124.50

Rank 7; -0.5 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 21.70 points left. Optimal 152.26 vs. actual 130.56.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	4.46	Dak Prescott	4.46
WR	Mike Williams	3.00	DJ Chark	15.20
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	30.90	Ja'Marr Chase	30.90
RB	Saquon Barkley	35.40	Saquon Barkley	35.40
RB	Tony Pollard	4.20	Kenny Gainwell	11.20
TE	Darren Waller	11.90	Darren Waller	11.90
W/R/T	Tyler Lockett	5.80	Albert Okwuegbunam Jr.	8.30
W/R/T	Jaylen Waddle	17.70	Jaylen Waddle	17.70
DEF	Bills	17.20	Bills	17.20

Carried by One Guy: Saquon Barkley, 35.40 points (27.1% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.60 points left. Optimal 134.10 vs. actual 124.50.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	20.22	Jameis Winston	21.66
WR	Michael Pittman Jr.	29.10	Michael Pittman Jr.	29.10
WR	Rashod Bateman	13.90	Rashod Bateman	13.90
RB	Antonio Gibson	20.00	Antonio Gibson	20.00
RB	Michael Carter	17.00	Michael Carter	17.00
TE	Kyle Pitts Sr.	3.90	Kyle Pitts Sr.	3.90
W/R/T	Derrick Henry	8.20	Mecole Hardman Jr.	10.66
W/R/T	Kenyan Drake	5.60	Khalil Herbert	11.30
DEF	Browns	6.58	Browns	6.58

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Michael Pittman Jr., 29.10 points (23.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Saquon Barkley scored 35.40; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 8 – 12, 2022

Martin

143.87

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

92.18

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.38 points left. Optimal 149.25 vs. actual 143.87.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	19.80	Russell Wilson	19.80
WR	Cooper Kupp	33.80	Cooper Kupp	33.80
WR	DJ Moore	8.00	DJ Moore	8.00
RB	Miles Sanders	18.50	Miles Sanders	18.50
RB	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	22.40	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	22.40
TE	Mark Andrews	10.20	Mark Andrews	10.20
W/R/T	Tyler Boyd	13.30	Tyler Boyd	13.30
W/R/T	Brandon Aiyuk	6.70	Nyheim Miller-Hines	12.08
DEF	Ravens	11.17	Ravens	11.17

Carried by One Guy: Cooper Kupp, 33.80 points (23.5% of positive starter points).

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 29.00 points left. Optimal 121.18 vs. actual 92.18.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Herbert	23.26	Justin Herbert	23.26
WR	Hollywood Brown	14.30	Robbie Chosen	23.20
WR	DeVonta Smith	0.00	Hollywood Brown	14.30
RB	James Conner	16.50	James Conner	16.50
RB	Austin Ekeler	11.20	Austin Ekeler	11.20
TE	Dawson Knox	1.50	Hunter Henry	4.00
W/R/T	Ezekiel Elliott	5.90	Drake London	12.40
W/R/T	Drake London	12.40	Garrett Wilson	9.20
DEF	Saints	7.12	Saints	7.12

Carried by One Guy: Justin Herbert, 23.26 points (25.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 8 – 12, 2022

Miller

130.29

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik

90.87

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 22.76 points left. Optimal 153.05 vs. actual 130.29.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	24.72	Jalen Hurts	24.72
WR	Tyreek Hill	18.00	Tyreek Hill	18.00
WR	Gabe Davis	18.80	Gabe Davis	18.80
RB	Jonathan Taylor	29.50	Jonathan Taylor	29.50
RB	Travis Etienne Jr.	8.50	Travis Etienne Jr.	8.50
TE	Pat Freiermuth	12.50	Pat Freiermuth	12.50
W/R/T	Damien Harris	7.80	Dontrell Hilliard	21.90
W/R/T	Darnell Mooney	1.80	Eno Benjamin	10.46
DEF	Rams	8.67	Rams	8.67

Carried by One Guy: Jonathan Taylor, 29.50 points (22.6% of positive starter points).

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 32.04 points left. Optimal 122.91 vs. actual 90.87.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	20.62	Kyler Murray	20.62
WR	DK Metcalf	8.60	DK Metcalf	8.60
WR	CeeDee Lamb	4.90	Devin Duvernay	21.74
RB	Dalvin Cook	13.80	Dalvin Cook	13.80
RB	Breece Hall	10.10	Breece Hall	10.10
TE	Mike Gesicki	1.10	Mike Gesicki	1.10
W/R/T	Amari Cooper	4.70	James Robinson	19.90
W/R/T	Amon-Ra St. Brown	20.40	Amon-Ra St. Brown	20.40
DEF	49ers	6.65	49ers	6.65

Carried by One Guy: Kyler Murray, 20.62 points (22.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 8 – 12, 2022

Demich

151.28

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Josh

144.04

Rank 3; -4.5 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.90 points left. Optimal 163.18 vs. actual 151.28.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kirk Cousins	19.08	Kirk Cousins	19.08
WR	Justin Jefferson	41.40	Justin Jefferson	41.40
WR	Elijah Moore	9.90	Elijah Moore	9.90
RB	Melvin Gordon III	7.20	Melvin Gordon III	7.20
RB	Elijah Mitchell	4.10	Jamaal Williams	16.00
TE	Travis Kelce	28.10	Travis Kelce	28.10
W/R/T	Diontae Johnson	12.50	Diontae Johnson	12.50
W/R/T	Jerry Jeudy	22.20	Jerry Jeudy	22.20
DEF	Cowboys	6.80	Cowboys	6.80

Carried by One Guy: Justin Jefferson, 41.40 points (27.4% of positive starter points).

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.74 points left. Optimal 161.78 vs. actual 144.04.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	36.90	Patrick Mahomes	36.90
WR	Mike Evans	18.10	Mike Evans	18.10
WR	JuJu Smith-Schuster	11.90	Jarvis Landry	20.40
RB	Joe Mixon	21.50	Joe Mixon	21.50
RB	Javonte Williams	19.80	Javonte Williams	19.80
TE	Zach Ertz	11.40	Zach Ertz	11.40
W/R/T	Sammy Watkins	4.80	Corey Davis	13.70
W/R/T	Darrell Henderson Jr.	12.30	Isiah Pacheco	12.64
DEF	Colts	7.34	Colts	7.34

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Patrick Mahomes, 36.90 points (25.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Justin Jefferson scored 41.40; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 8 – 12, 2022

Adam

124.25

Rank 8; +0.5 luck points

Nevans

88.98

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.92 points left. Optimal 132.17 vs. actual 124.25.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Trey Lance	9.96	Trey Lance	9.96
WR	Brandin Cooks	15.20	Brandin Cooks	15.20
WR	Deebo Samuel Sr.	12.60	Deebo Samuel Sr.	12.60
RB	Cordarrelle Patterson	24.60	Cordarrelle Patterson	24.60
RB	D'Andre Swift	28.50	D'Andre Swift	28.50
TE	Dalton Schultz	13.20	Dalton Schultz	13.20
W/R/T	Chase Edmonds	10.50	Julio Jones	11.60
W/R/T	Hunter Renfrow	5.18	Rex Burkhead	12.00
DEF	Eagles	4.51	Eagles	4.51

Carried by One Guy: D'Andre Swift, 28.50 points (22.9% of positive starter points).

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.80 points left. Optimal 102.78 vs. actual 88.98.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	3.70	Aaron Rodgers	3.70
WR	Adam Thielen	6.60	Zay Jones	12.50
WR	Terry McLaurin	13.80	Terry McLaurin	13.80
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	10.60	Aaron Jones Sr.	10.60
RB	Nick Chubb	17.30	Nick Chubb	17.30
TE	T.J. Hockenson	7.80	Tyler Conklin	11.60
W/R/T	Courtland Sutton	11.20	Courtland Sutton	11.20
W/R/T	Rhamondre Stevenson	4.70	Romeo Doubs	8.80
DEF	Buccaneers	13.28	Buccaneers	13.28

Carried by One Guy: Nick Chubb, 17.30 points (19.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 8 – 12, 2022

Niz

147.77

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

79.49

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.10 points left. Optimal 157.87 vs. actual 147.77.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	20.22	Joe Burrow	20.22
WR	Davante Adams	32.10	Davante Adams	32.10
WR	Stefon Diggs	28.20	Stefon Diggs	28.20
RB	Jerick McKinnon	7.90	Josh Jacobs	8.30
RB	Josh Jacobs	8.30	Devin Singletary	8.20
TE	Dallas Goedert	9.00	Dallas Goedert	9.00
W/R/T	Christian Kirk	19.70	Christian Kirk	19.70
W/R/T	Devin Singletary	8.20	Jahan Dotson	18.00
DEF	Chargers	14.15	Chargers	14.15

Carried by One Guy: Davante Adams, 32.10 points (21.7% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.20 points left. Optimal 90.69 vs. actual 79.49.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	10.38	Tom Brady	10.38
WR	A.J. Brown	27.50	A.J. Brown	27.50
WR	Tee Higgins	4.70	Chase Claypool	9.40
RB	Christian McCaffrey	15.70	Christian McCaffrey	15.70
RB	Dameon Pierce	4.90	Dameon Pierce	4.90
TE	David Njoku	1.70	David Njoku	1.70
W/R/T	Allen Robinson	2.20	Rashaad Penny	8.70
W/R/T	Chris Olave	9.10	Chris Olave	9.10
DEF	Bengals	3.31	Bengals	3.31

Carried by One Guy: A.J. Brown, 27.50 points (34.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 8 – 12, 2022

Kev

99.74

Rank 9; +1.5 luck points

Horgan

90.74

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.88 points left. Optimal 108.62 vs. actual 99.74.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	31.48	Josh Allen	31.48
WR	Michael Thomas	22.70	Marvin Jones Jr.	7.80
WR	Kadarius Toney	2.30	Michael Thomas	22.70
RB	Leonard Fournette	17.70	Leonard Fournette	17.70
RB	Alvin Kamara	7.60	Alvin Kamara	7.60
TE	Evan Engram	6.80	Evan Engram	6.80
W/R/T	DeVante Parker	1.90	David Montgomery	8.00
W/R/T	David Montgomery	8.00	Skyy Moore	5.28
DEF	Packers	1.26	Packers	1.26

Carried by One Guy: Josh Allen, 31.48 points (31.6% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.40 points left. Optimal 108.14 vs. actual 90.74.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Trevor Lawrence	13.40	Trevor Lawrence	13.40
WR	Keenan Allen	10.60	Keenan Allen	10.60
WR	Chris Godwin Jr.	6.50	Chris Godwin Jr.	6.50
RB	Cam Akers	0.00	Kareem Hunt	23.00
RB	Najee Harris	10.60	Najee Harris	10.60
TE	Cole Kmet	0.00	Logan Thomas	7.50
W/R/T	Kareem Hunt	23.00	Isaiah McKenzie	9.90
W/R/T	AJ Dillon	20.10	AJ Dillon	20.10
DEF	Broncos	6.54	Broncos	6.54

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Kareem Hunt, 23.00 points (25.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Josh Allen scored 31.48; zeroing that score creates a win.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	1–0	0.692	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Martin	1–0	0.769	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Miller	1–0	0.615	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Demich	1–0	1.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Krajcik	0–1	0.231	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Big Hut	0–1	0.308	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Niz	1–0	0.923	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Josh	0–1	0.846	-4.5	-0.346	0 / 1
Adam	1–0	0.462	+0.5	+0.038	1 / 0
Fischer	0–1	0.538	-0.5	-0.038	0 / 1
Nevans	0–1	0.077	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Joe Shore	0–1	0.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Kev	1–0	0.385	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 0
Horgan	0–1	0.154	0.0	0.000	0 / 0

2022 week 1 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Krajcik lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Nevans lineup

Regular

Niz lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 1