2022 week 3 · Luck Factor

Regular

Sep 20 – 26, 2022

j-mart

114.97

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Demich

114.26

Rank 7; -0.5 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 114.97 vs. actual 114.97.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	15.28	Matt Ryan	15.28
WR	Mike Williams	8.50	Mike Williams	8.50
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	12.70	Ja'Marr Chase	12.70
RB	Saquon Barkley	22.60	Saquon Barkley	22.60
RB	Tony Pollard	12.50	Tony Pollard	12.50
TE	Darren Waller	5.20	Darren Waller	5.20
W/R/T	Tyler Lockett	16.60	Tyler Lockett	16.60
W/R/T	Jaylen Waddle	17.10	Jaylen Waddle	17.10
DEF	Bills	4.49	Bills	4.49

Carried by One Guy: Saquon Barkley, 22.60 points (19.7% of positive starter points).

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 28.04 points left. Optimal 142.30 vs. actual 114.26.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kirk Cousins	18.30	Kirk Cousins	18.30
WR	Diontae Johnson	16.40	Diontae Johnson	16.40
WR	Justin Jefferson	4.40	Greg Dortch	17.24
RB	Melvin Gordon III	16.50	Melvin Gordon III	16.50
RB	Jamaal Williams	24.70	Jamaal Williams	24.70
TE	Travis Kelce	17.90	Travis Kelce	17.90
W/R/T	Elijah Moore	8.90	K.J. Osborn	18.30
W/R/T	Treylon Burks	3.10	Elijah Moore	8.90
DEF	Falcons	4.06	Falcons	4.06

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Jamaal Williams, 24.70 points (21.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Saquon Barkley scored 22.60; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 20 – 26, 2022

Krajcik

138.89

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Josh

88.24

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.80 points left. Optimal 150.69 vs. actual 138.89.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	15.36	Kyler Murray	15.36
WR	DK Metcalf	17.40	DK Metcalf	17.40
WR	CeeDee Lamb	22.70	CeeDee Lamb	22.70
RB	Dalvin Cook	13.60	Dalvin Cook	13.60
RB	Breece Hall	15.20	Breece Hall	15.20
TE	Tyler Higbee	10.10	Tyler Higbee	10.10
W/R/T	James Robinson	22.60	Amari Cooper	25.10
W/R/T	Amon-Ra St. Brown	13.30	James Robinson	22.60
DEF	49ers	8.63	49ers	8.63

Carried by One Guy: CeeDee Lamb, 22.70 points (16.3% of positive starter points).

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.40 points left. Optimal 100.64 vs. actual 88.24.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	17.08	Patrick Mahomes	17.08
WR	JuJu Smith-Schuster	13.90	JuJu Smith-Schuster	13.90
WR	Allen Lazard	14.50	Allen Lazard	14.50
RB	Joe Mixon	6.80	Joe Mixon	6.80
RB	Javonte Williams	9.00	Javonte Williams	9.00
TE	Zach Ertz	10.50	Zach Ertz	10.50
W/R/T	Corey Davis	4.70	Corey Davis	4.70
W/R/T	Darrell Henderson Jr.	1.70	Samaje Perine	14.10
DEF	Chiefs	10.06	Chiefs	10.06

Carried by One Guy: Patrick Mahomes, 17.08 points (19.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 20 – 26, 2022

Big Hut

137.71

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Niz

101.57

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.64 points left. Optimal 145.35 vs. actual 137.71.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Fields	4.94	Justin Herbert	12.58
WR	Hollywood Brown	30.00	Hollywood Brown	30.00
WR	DeVonta Smith	33.14	DeVonta Smith	33.14
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	14.50	Ezekiel Elliott	14.50
RB	Austin Ekeler	13.30	Austin Ekeler	13.30
TE	Robert Tonyan	9.70	Robert Tonyan	9.70
W/R/T	Drake London	14.40	Drake London	14.40
W/R/T	Garrett Wilson	12.00	Garrett Wilson	12.00
DEF	Saints	5.73	Saints	5.73

Carried by One Guy: DeVonta Smith, 33.14 points (24.1% of positive starter points).

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 25.50 points left. Optimal 127.07 vs. actual 101.57.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	23.00	Joe Burrow	23.00
WR	Davante Adams	14.20	Davante Adams	14.20
WR	Stefon Diggs	14.40	Stefon Diggs	14.40
RB	Josh Jacobs	14.70	Josh Jacobs	14.70
RB	J.K. Dobbins	6.00	Devin Singletary	24.10
TE	Dallas Goedert	11.60	Dallas Goedert	11.60
W/R/T	Christian Kirk	19.20	Noah Brown	10.40
W/R/T	Jahan Dotson	3.00	Christian Kirk	19.20
DEF	Chargers	-4.53	Chargers	-4.53

Carried by One Guy: Joe Burrow, 23.00 points (21.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 20 – 26, 2022

Martin

110.06

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

137.52

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 26.16 points left. Optimal 136.22 vs. actual 110.06.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	9.06	Derek Carr	21.82
WR	Cooper Kupp	16.40	Cooper Kupp	16.40
WR	DJ Moore	2.50	Joshua Palmer	15.90
RB	Miles Sanders	5.40	Miles Sanders	5.40
RB	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	14.90	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	14.90
TE	Mark Andrews	28.90	Mark Andrews	28.90
W/R/T	Nyheim Miller-Hines	8.20	Nyheim Miller-Hines	8.20
W/R/T	Brandon Aiyuk	12.90	Brandon Aiyuk	12.90
DEF	Ravens	11.80	Ravens	11.80

Carried by One Guy: Mark Andrews, 28.90 points (26.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Lamar Jackson scored 41.42; zeroing that score creates a win.

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 28.30 points left. Optimal 165.82 vs. actual 137.52.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	41.42	Lamar Jackson	41.42
WR	Michael Pittman Jr.	15.20	Michael Pittman Jr.	15.20
WR	Rashod Bateman	5.90	George Pickens	6.90
RB	Derrick Henry	25.30	Derrick Henry	25.30
RB	Antonio Gibson	11.00	Antonio Gibson	11.00
TE	Kyle Pitts Sr.	13.70	Kyle Pitts Sr.	13.70
W/R/T	Richie James	8.02	Richie James	8.02
W/R/T	Michael Carter	5.60	Khalil Herbert	32.90
DEF	Browns	11.38	Browns	11.38

Carried by One Guy: Lamar Jackson, 41.42 points (30.1% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 20 – 26, 2022

Nevans

133.46

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

116.42

Rank 5; -2.5 luck points

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 28.00 points left. Optimal 161.46 vs. actual 133.46.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	16.10	Aaron Rodgers	16.10
WR	Adam Thielen	18.10	Adam Thielen	18.10
WR	Terry McLaurin	18.20	Terry McLaurin	18.20
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	5.70	Nick Chubb	19.30
RB	Nick Chubb	19.30	Rhamondre Stevenson	20.10
TE	T.J. Hockenson	10.80	Tyler Conklin	16.40
W/R/T	Courtland Sutton	17.70	Zay Jones	24.50
W/R/T	Rhamondre Stevenson	20.10	Romeo Doubs	21.30
DEF	Buccaneers	7.46	Buccaneers	7.46

Carried by One Guy: Rhamondre Stevenson, 20.10 points (15.1% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 25.98 points left. Optimal 142.40 vs. actual 116.42.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	10.16	Tom Brady	14.74
WR	A.J. Brown	19.50	A.J. Brown	19.50
WR	Tee Higgins	14.30	Tee Higgins	14.30
RB	Christian McCaffrey	15.50	Christian McCaffrey	15.50
RB	Jeff Wilson Jr.	11.60	Jeff Wilson Jr.	11.60
TE	Gerald Everett	4.50	Gerald Everett	4.50
W/R/T	Allen Robinson	4.30	Chris Olave	25.70
W/R/T	Dameon Pierce	18.10	Dameon Pierce	18.10
DEF	Eagles	18.46	Eagles	18.46

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: A.J. Brown, 19.50 points (16.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Rhamondre Stevenson scored 20.10; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 20 – 26, 2022

Adam

91.74

Rank 12; +4.5 luck points

Kev

80.61

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.80 points left. Optimal 94.54 vs. actual 91.74.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Marcus Mariota	15.56	Marcus Mariota	15.56
WR	Brandin Cooks	4.20	Breshad Perriman	5.40
WR	Breshad Perriman	5.40	Deebo Samuel Sr.	12.90
RB	Cordarrelle Patterson	24.30	Cordarrelle Patterson	24.30
RB	D'Andre Swift	7.60	D'Andre Swift	7.60
TE	Evan Engram	3.90	Evan Engram	3.90
W/R/T	Chase Edmonds	15.70	Rex Burkhead	7.00
W/R/T	Deebo Samuel Sr.	12.90	Chase Edmonds	15.70
DEF	Steelers	2.18	Steelers	2.18

Carried by One Guy: Cordarrelle Patterson, 24.30 points (26.5% of positive starter points).

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.30 points left. Optimal 90.91 vs. actual 80.61.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	28.70	Josh Allen	28.70
WR	Michael Thomas	9.90	Michael Thomas	9.90
WR	Curtis Samuel	13.10	Curtis Samuel	13.10
RB	Leonard Fournette	12.00	Leonard Fournette	12.00
RB	David Montgomery	1.10	Tyler Allgeier	4.00
TE	George Kittle	6.80	George Kittle	6.80
W/R/T	Alvin Kamara	7.30	Alvin Kamara	7.30
W/R/T	Hayden Hurst	1.70	Alec Pierce	9.10
DEF	Giants	0.01	Giants	0.01

Carried by One Guy: Josh Allen, 28.70 points (35.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Cordarrelle Patterson scored 24.30; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 20 – 26, 2022

Miller

93.95

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

96.36

Rank 10; +2.5 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.40 points left. Optimal 97.35 vs. actual 93.95.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	29.60	Jalen Hurts	29.60
WR	Tyreek Hill	5.30	Chase Claypool	7.60
WR	Gabe Davis	6.70	Gabe Davis	6.70
RB	Jonathan Taylor	12.10	Jonathan Taylor	12.10
RB	Travis Etienne Jr.	10.50	Travis Etienne Jr.	10.50
TE	Pat Freiermuth	6.10	Pat Freiermuth	6.10
W/R/T	Damien Harris	12.60	Dontrell Hilliard	5.40
W/R/T	Darnell Mooney	4.30	Damien Harris	12.60
DEF	Rams	6.75	Rams	6.75

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Jalen Hurts, 29.60 points (31.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Russell Gage Jr. scored 24.70; zeroing that score creates a win.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.40 points left. Optimal 109.76 vs. actual 96.36.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Carson Wentz	8.64	Daniel Jones	13.74
WR	Sterling Shepard	9.90	Sterling Shepard	9.90
WR	Russell Gage Jr.	24.70	Russell Gage Jr.	24.70
RB	Kareem Hunt	9.10	Kareem Hunt	9.10
RB	Najee Harris	13.10	Najee Harris	13.10
TE	Logan Thomas	2.50	Irv Smith Jr.	5.20
W/R/T	Cam Akers	10.10	Alexander Mattison	11.40
W/R/T	AJ Dillon	5.80	Cam Akers	10.10
DEF	Cowboys	12.52	Cowboys	12.52

Carried by One Guy: Russell Gage Jr., 24.70 points (25.6% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	3–0	2.308	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Martin	1–2	1.923	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1
Miller	2–1	1.462	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Demich	1–2	1.538	-0.5	-0.038	0 / 1
Krajcik	2–1	2.077	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Big Hut	1–2	1.692	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Niz	1–2	2.077	-3.5	-0.269	0 / 1
Josh	0–3	1.077	-4.5	-0.346	0 / 1
Adam	2–1	0.692	+5.0	+0.385	2 / 0
Fischer	2–1	1.692	+2.0	+0.154	1 / 1
Nevans	2–1	1.769	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Joe Shore	1–2	1.231	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1
Kev	1–2	0.769	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 0
Horgan	2–1	0.692	+6.0	+0.462	2 / 0

2022 week 3 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Demich lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Niz lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Nevans lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 3