2020 season ledger
Actual results beside all-play expectation, schedule counterfactuals, weekly receipts, rivalries, and archived player evidence.
Actual and all-play standings
All-play is a score comparison, not a prediction of skill.
| Manager | W–L | PF | Expected wins | Luck points | Luck in wins | Lucky | Unlucky | All-play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Horgan | 10–3 | 1942.71 | 9.731 | 0.0 | 0.000 | 2 | 2 | 74.9% |
| Demich | 10–3 | 1852.48 | 9.154 | -2.5 | -0.192 | 0 | 1 | 70.4% |
| Nevans | 9–4 | 1758.79 | 7.500 | +1.0 | +0.077 | 3 | 1 | 57.7% |
| Kev | 8–5 | 1595.75 | 5.769 | +5.5 | +0.423 | 2 | 1 | 44.4% |
| Miller | 7–6 | 1688.30 | 6.769 | +2.0 | +0.154 | 1 | 1 | 52.1% |
| Niz | 7–6 | 1611.03 | 5.538 | +5.0 | +0.385 | 2 | 0 | 42.6% |
| j-mart | 6–7 | 1742.39 | 7.462 | -3.5 | -0.269 | 1 | 4 | 57.4% |
| Martin | 6–7 | 1734.05 | 7.462 | -5.5 | -0.423 | 0 | 1 | 57.4% |
| Krajcik | 6–7 | 1710.11 | 6.769 | -5.0 | -0.385 | 2 | 2 | 52.1% |
| Fischer | 6–7 | 1670.83 | 6.385 | 0.0 | 0.000 | 2 | 2 | 49.1% |
| Big Hut | 5–8 | 1542.65 | 4.462 | +2.0 | +0.154 | 1 | 1 | 34.3% |
| Josh | 5–8 | 1463.92 | 4.077 | +5.0 | +0.385 | 2 | 0 | 31.4% |
| Joe Shore | 3–10 | 1579.41 | 5.538 | -5.5 | -0.423 | 0 | 3 | 42.6% |
| Adam | 3–10 | 1545.29 | 4.385 | +1.0 | +0.077 | 1 | 1 | 33.7% |
All-play order
- Horgan — 9.731 expected wins; 126–42–1 across weekly score comparisons.
- Demich — 9.154 expected wins; 119–50–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Nevans — 7.500 expected wins; 97–71–1 across weekly score comparisons.
- j-mart — 7.462 expected wins; 97–72–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Martin — 7.462 expected wins; 97–72–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Krajcik — 6.769 expected wins; 88–81–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Miller — 6.769 expected wins; 88–81–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Fischer — 6.385 expected wins; 83–86–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Kev — 5.769 expected wins; 75–94–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Niz — 5.538 expected wins; 72–97–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Joe Shore — 5.538 expected wins; 72–97–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Big Hut — 4.462 expected wins; 58–111–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Adam — 4.385 expected wins; 57–112–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Josh — 4.077 expected wins; 53–116–0 across weekly score comparisons.
Latest weekly receipts
All exact ties share the award.
Robbery of the Week
- NevansRank 5, 141.28 points, lost by 9.61. Open matchup
Get Out of Jail Free
- KevRank 9, 122.31 points, won by 12.43. Open matchup
Cumulative luck in wins
Normalized before totals are compared across league sizes.
| Manager | W1 | W2 | W3 | W4 | W5 | W6 | W7 | W8 | W9 | W10 | W11 | W12 | W13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | +0.19 | +0.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.12 | -0.12 | -0.15 | -0.15 | -0.15 | -0.27 | -0.27 |
| Martin | 0.00 | -0.42 | -0.42 | -0.42 | -0.42 | -0.42 | -0.42 | -0.42 | -0.42 | -0.42 | -0.42 | -0.42 | -0.42 |
| Miller | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.04 | -0.04 | -0.04 | +0.15 | +0.15 | +0.15 | +0.15 | +0.15 |
| Demich | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.19 | -0.19 | -0.19 | -0.19 | -0.19 | -0.19 | -0.19 | -0.19 | -0.19 |
| Krajcik | 0.00 | +0.04 | -0.23 | -0.50 | -0.50 | -0.50 | -0.50 | -0.50 | -0.50 | -0.50 | -0.38 | -0.38 | -0.38 |
| Big Hut | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.12 | -0.12 | -0.12 | -0.12 | +0.15 | +0.15 |
| Niz | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.38 | +0.38 | +0.38 |
| Josh | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.35 | +0.38 | +0.38 | +0.38 | +0.38 | +0.38 | +0.38 | +0.38 | +0.38 |
| Adam | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.27 | +0.27 | +0.08 | +0.08 | +0.08 | +0.08 |
| Fischer | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.27 | +0.27 | +0.27 | +0.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.04 | +0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nevans | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.12 | +0.12 | +0.23 | +0.23 | +0.23 | +0.23 | +0.23 | +0.23 | +0.27 | +0.08 |
| Joe Shore | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.04 | -0.04 | -0.04 | -0.23 | -0.42 | -0.42 |
| Kev | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.35 | +0.35 | +0.35 | +0.35 | +0.31 | +0.31 | +0.42 |
| Horgan | -0.19 | -0.19 | -0.19 | -0.19 | -0.19 | -0.46 | -0.46 | -0.42 | -0.42 | -0.42 | -0.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Schedule Swap
Each score stays in its original week. Only the schedule owner changes.
| Source team | Best owner | Record | Worst owner | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | Nevans | 9–4 (+3.0) | j-mart | 6–7 (0.0) |
| Martin | Nevans | 10–3 (+4.0) | j-mart | 5–8 (-1.0) |
| Miller | Josh | 9–4 (+2.0) | Horgan | 5–8 (-2.0) |
| Demich | Niz | 12–1 (+2.0) | Joe Shore | 7–6 (-3.0) |
| Krajcik | Martin | 8–5 (+2.0) | j-mart | 5–8 (-1.0) |
| Big Hut | Horgan | 7–6 (+2.0) | Joe Shore | 2–11 (-3.0) |
| Niz | Martin | 9–4 (+2.0) | j-mart | 4–9 (-3.0) |
| Josh | Martin | 6–7 (+1.0) | Krajcik | 2–11 (-3.0) |
| Adam | Martin | 7–6 (+4.0) | Kev | 2–11 (-1.0) |
| Fischer | Josh | 10–3 (+4.0) | Joe Shore | 3–10 (-3.0) |
| Nevans | Niz | 11–2 (+2.0) | Adam | 5–7–1 (-3.5) |
| Joe Shore | Martin | 7–6 (+4.0) | Joe Shore | 3–10 (0.0) |
| Kev | Kev | 8–5 (0.0) | j-mart | 4–9 (-4.0) |
| Horgan | Niz | 11–1–1 (+1.5) | Demich | 8–5 (-2.0) |
Everybody's Super Bowl
Opponent score minus that opponent's mean in other eligible weeks. Each baseline needs two other weeks.
| Manager | Mean excess | Meetings | Largest receipt |
|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | +6.53 pts | 13 | Josh: +43.36 pts |
| Martin | -6.09 pts | 13 | Demich: +28.04 pts |
| Miller | +1.88 pts | 13 | Martin: +31.57 pts |
| Demich | -3.94 pts | 13 | Miller: +26.37 pts |
| Krajcik | +6.55 pts | 13 | Big Hut: +42.79 pts |
| Big Hut | +2.98 pts | 13 | Nevans: +29.42 pts |
| Niz | -13.28 pts | 13 | Fischer: +25.40 pts |
| Josh | -9.48 pts | 13 | Adam: +31.66 pts |
| Adam | +5.84 pts | 13 | Krajcik: +66.70 pts |
| Fischer | +2.63 pts | 13 | Joe Shore: +70.44 pts |
| Nevans | -6.26 pts | 13 | Martin: +15.13 pts |
| Joe Shore | +12.50 pts | 13 | Martin: +47.55 pts |
| Kev | -1.64 pts | 13 | Big Hut: +32.21 pts |
| Horgan | +1.78 pts | 13 | Josh: +62.82 pts |
Cupcake Schedule / Murderers' Row
Opponent percentile excludes both the focal team and the opponent. Higher means harder.
| Manager | Difficulty | Games | PA/game |
|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 59.0% | 13 | 134.40 |
| Martin | 39.7% | 13 | 122.80 |
| Miller | 53.2% | 13 | 130.43 |
| Demich | 50.6% | 13 | 124.09 |
| Krajcik | 57.7% | 13 | 134.61 |
| Big Hut | 52.6% | 13 | 132.30 |
| Niz | 33.7% | 13 | 116.89 |
| Josh | 38.5% | 13 | 121.27 |
| Adam | 52.9% | 13 | 134.94 |
| Fischer | 53.2% | 13 | 131.23 |
| Nevans | 43.6% | 13 | 122.50 |
| Joe Shore | 62.8% | 13 | 140.87 |
| Kev | 53.8% | 13 | 127.73 |
| Horgan | 48.7% | 13 | 128.83 |
Heart Attack Club
A close game has a margin of 5.00 points or less, inclusive.
| Manager | Close record | Games | Win-credit rate | Closest win | Closest loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 0–0 | 0 | Not enough history | None | None |
| Martin | 0–1 | 1 | 0.0% | None | 3.36 |
| Miller | 0–1 | 1 | 0.0% | None | 3.46 |
| Demich | 2–0 | 2 | 100.0% | 0.34 | None |
| Krajcik | 2–0 | 2 | 100.0% | 1.92 | None |
| Big Hut | 2–2 | 4 | 50.0% | 1.63 | 1.46 |
| Niz | 0–1 | 1 | 0.0% | None | 0.89 |
| Josh | 0–2 | 2 | 0.0% | None | 4.01 |
| Adam | 0–1 | 1 | 0.0% | None | 0.34 |
| Fischer | 0–2 | 2 | 0.0% | None | 0.87 |
| Nevans | 2–1 | 3 | 66.7% | 0.87 | 2.72 |
| Joe Shore | 1–1 | 2 | 50.0% | 1.46 | 1.92 |
| Kev | 2–0 | 2 | 100.0% | 0.89 | None |
| Horgan | 1–0 | 1 | 100.0% | 3.36 | None |
Paper Tiger / Wasted Talent
Actual win-credit rate against all-play win rate. The diagonal means equality.
| Manager | Actual | All-play | Gap | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 46.2% | 57.4% | -11.2 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Martin | 46.2% | 57.4% | -11.2 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Miller | 53.8% | 52.1% | +1.8 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Demich | 76.9% | 70.4% | +6.5 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Krajcik | 46.2% | 52.1% | -5.9 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Big Hut | 38.5% | 34.3% | +4.1 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Niz | 53.8% | 42.6% | +11.2 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Josh | 38.5% | 31.4% | +7.1 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Adam | 23.1% | 33.7% | -10.7 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Fischer | 46.2% | 49.1% | -3.0 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Nevans | 69.2% | 57.7% | +11.5 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Joe Shore | 23.1% | 42.6% | -19.5 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Kev | 61.5% | 44.4% | +17.2 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Horgan | 76.9% | 74.9% | +2.1 pp | Paper Tiger |
The Roller Coaster
Population standard deviation of weekly all-play percentile. Two weeks required.
| Manager | Volatility | Mean percentile | Weeks |
|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 29.2 pp | 57.4% | 13 |
| Martin | 31.6 pp | 57.4% | 13 |
| Miller | 29.4 pp | 52.1% | 13 |
| Demich | 26.1 pp | 70.4% | 13 |
| Krajcik | 27.2 pp | 52.1% | 13 |
| Big Hut | 29.5 pp | 34.3% | 13 |
| Niz | 29.0 pp | 42.6% | 13 |
| Josh | 30.5 pp | 31.4% | 13 |
| Adam | 21.2 pp | 33.7% | 13 |
| Fischer | 24.8 pp | 49.1% | 13 |
| Nevans | 24.9 pp | 57.7% | 13 |
| Joe Shore | 29.0 pp | 42.6% | 13 |
| Kev | 31.8 pp | 44.4% | 13 |
| Horgan | 30.4 pp | 74.9% | 13 |
Nemesis / Has Their Number
Stable-manager regular-season records. Postseason is kept separate on manager pages.
| Manager | Nemesis | Record | Has Their Number | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | Nevans | 0–1 | Horgan | 1–0 |
| Martin | Demich | 0–1 | Big Hut | 1–0 |
| Miller | Martin | 0–1 | Kev | 1–0 |
| Demich | Krajcik | 0–1 | Martin | 1–0 |
| Krajcik | Niz | 0–1 | Adam | 1–0 |
| Big Hut | Horgan | 0–1 | Krajcik | 1–0 |
| Niz | Fischer | 0–1 | Joe Shore | 1–0 |
| Josh | Nevans | 0–1 | Horgan | 1–0 |
| Adam | Krajcik | 0–1 | Big Hut | 1–0 |
| Fischer | Horgan | 0–1 | Krajcik | 1–0 |
| Nevans | Martin | 0–1 | j-mart | 1–0 |
| Joe Shore | Horgan | 0–1 | Fischer | 1–0 |
| Kev | Demich | 0–1 | Fischer | 1–0 |
| Horgan | j-mart | 0–1 | Fischer | 1–0 |
Archived player statistics
Hindsight lineup using the archived roster and Yahoo-reported position eligibility; not a reconstruction of kickoff-time options.
Tinker Failures
League-wide superlative suppressed because coverage is incomplete. Available team-week receipts remain listed.
| Manager | Points left | Avoidable losses | Receipts |
|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 119.04 | 2 | |
| Martin | 232.93 | 5 | |
| Miller | 208.72 | 3 | |
| Demich | 187.26 | 1 | |
| Krajcik | 146.56 | 1 | |
| Big Hut | 133.70 | 1 | |
| Niz | 122.94 | 2 | |
| Josh | 154.54 | 1 | |
| Adam | 190.30 | 2 | |
| Fischer | 186.10 | 2 | |
| Nevans | 206.52 | 3 | |
| Joe Shore | 101.37 | 1 | |
| Kev | 129.84 | 1 | |
| Horgan | 92.46 | 0 |
Carried by One Guy
| Manager | Leading player | Share | Positive starter points | Receipts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | Tyler Lockett | 12.1% | 1742.59 | |
| Martin | Derrick Henry | 13.9% | 1736.40 | |
| Miller | Travis Kelce | 14.7% | 1692.99 | |
| Demich | DK Metcalf | 12.8% | 1856.91 | 13 weeks
|
| Krajcik | Tyreek Hill | 16.4% | 1714.47 | 13 weeks |
| Big Hut | Russell Wilson | 19.2% | 1546.54 | 13 weeks
|
| Niz | Alvin Kamara | 18.2% | 1524.52 | |
| Josh | Calvin Ridley | 14.0% | 1463.92 | 13 weeks
|
| Adam | JuJu Smith-Schuster | 11.1% | 1545.29 | 13 weeks
|
| Fischer | Josh Allen | 17.9% | 1675.96 | 13 weeks
|
| Nevans | Patrick Mahomes | 18.5% | 1760.34 | 13 weeks
|
| Joe Shore | James Robinson | 14.0% | 1583.09 | 13 weeks |
| Kev | Robert Woods | 12.7% | 1595.75 | 13 weeks
|
| Horgan | Kyler Murray | 16.2% | 1942.71 |
Opponent's Final Boss
| Manager | Leading opponent | Damage | Leader encounters | Receipts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | Justin Herbert | 119.59 | 1 | |
| Martin | Kyler Murray | 286.10 | 1 | |
| Miller | Patrick Mahomes | 213.86 | 1 | |
| Demich | Josh Jacobs | 165.21 | 1 | |
| Krajcik | Dalvin Cook | 180.46 | 1 | |
| Big Hut | DK Metcalf | 250.35 | 1 | |
| Niz | Patrick Mahomes | 165.14 | 1 | |
| Josh | Deshaun Watson | 203.76 | 1 | |
| Adam | Tom Brady | 270.66 | 1 | |
| Fischer | Russell Wilson | 219.26 | 1 | |
| Nevans | Jakobi Meyers | 170.14 | 1 | |
| Joe Shore | Patrick Mahomes | 179.19 | 1 | |
| Kev | Calvin Ridley | 15.61 | 1 | |
| Horgan | Justin Jefferson | 77.64 | 1 |
Postseason scorecards
Actual participants only. These scores do not enter regular-season luck.