2020 week 7 · Luck Factor

Regular

Oct 20 – 26, 2020

j-mart

139.48

Rank 6; -1.5 luck points

Josh

152.63

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.60 points left. Optimal 155.08 vs. actual 139.48.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	23.68	Drew Brees	23.68
WR	Mike Evans	5.70	Mike Evans	5.70
WR	Tyler Lockett	55.18	Tyler Lockett	55.18
RB	Mike Davis	8.60	Mike Davis	8.60
RB	Kenyan Drake	5.10	Kenyan Drake	5.10
TE	Darren Waller	17.00	Darren Waller	17.00
W/R/T	Jarvis Landry	10.96	Jarvis Landry	10.96
W/R/T	Jerick McKinnon	-0.10	Corey Davis	15.50
K	Michael Badgley	8.00	Michael Badgley	8.00
DEF	Chargers	5.36	Chargers	5.36

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Tyler Lockett, 55.18 points (39.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Justin Herbert scored 40.48; zeroing that score creates a win.

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.20 points left. Optimal 160.83 vs. actual 152.63.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Herbert	40.48	Justin Herbert	40.48
WR	Kenny Golladay	19.40	Kenny Golladay	19.40
WR	Calvin Ridley	19.90	Calvin Ridley	19.90
RB	David Johnson	16.40	David Johnson	16.40
RB	Josh Jacobs	6.10	La'Mical Perine	13.60
TE	Jared Cook	12.20	Jared Cook	12.20
W/R/T	Tim Patrick	7.40	Jimmy Graham	8.10
W/R/T	Zack Moss	10.20	Zack Moss	10.20
K	Mason Crosby	5.00	Mason Crosby	5.00
DEF	Rams	15.55	Rams	15.55

Carried by One Guy: Justin Herbert, 40.48 points (26.5% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 20 – 26, 2020

Martin

130.20

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Niz

136.65

Rank 8; +0.5 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.08 points left. Optimal 147.28 vs. actual 130.20.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	-0.18	Jared Goff	16.90
WR	Keenan Allen	24.50	Keenan Allen	24.50
WR	A.J. Brown	29.30	A.J. Brown	29.30
RB	Rex Burkhead	7.70	Rex Burkhead	7.70
RB	Derrick Henry	15.20	Derrick Henry	15.20
TE	Noah Fant	6.80	Noah Fant	6.80
W/R/T	Tyler Boyd	29.74	Tyler Boyd	29.74
W/R/T	Keelan Cole Sr.	2.20	Keelan Cole Sr.	2.20
K	Younghoe Koo	2.00	Younghoe Koo	2.00
DEF	Bears	12.94	Bears	12.94

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Tyler Boyd, 29.74 points (22.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Cole Beasley scored 24.20; zeroing that score creates a win.

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.60 points left. Optimal 141.25 vs. actual 136.65.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyle Allen	16.86	Kyle Allen	16.86
WR	Sterling Shepard	17.90	Cole Beasley	24.20
WR	Mike Williams	1.40	Sterling Shepard	17.90
RB	Alvin Kamara	22.80	Alvin Kamara	22.80
RB	Jamaal Williams	21.40	Jamaal Williams	21.40
TE	T.J. Hockenson	16.90	T.J. Hockenson	16.90
W/R/T	Cole Beasley	24.20	Phillip Lindsay	7.90
W/R/T	Phillip Lindsay	7.90	Frank Gore	6.00
K	Ryan Succop	8.00	Ryan Succop	8.00
DEF	Seahawks	-0.71	Seahawks	-0.71

Carried by One Guy: Cole Beasley, 24.20 points (17.6% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 20 – 26, 2020

Miller

128.73

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

137.02

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 27.38 points left. Optimal 156.11 vs. actual 128.73.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ben Roethlisberger	12.62	Tom Brady	38.86
WR	Diontae Johnson	29.00	Diontae Johnson	29.00
WR	Chase Claypool	0.80	Chase Claypool	0.80
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	6.10	Ezekiel Elliott	6.10
RB	Chase Edmonds	21.92	Chase Edmonds	21.92
TE	Travis Kelce	6.10	Travis Kelce	6.10
W/R/T	Adrian Peterson	4.00	Tony Pollard	5.14
W/R/T	D'Andre Swift	14.80	D'Andre Swift	14.80
K	Zane Gonzalez	16.00	Zane Gonzalez	16.00
DEF	49ers	17.39	49ers	17.39

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Diontae Johnson, 29.00 points (22.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Russell Wilson scored 31.92; zeroing that score creates a win.

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 137.02 vs. actual 137.02.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	31.92	Russell Wilson	31.92
WR	Randall Cobb	17.50	Randall Cobb	17.50
WR	Allen Robinson	11.00	Allen Robinson	11.00
RB	Giovani Bernard	21.08	Giovani Bernard	21.08
RB	Malcolm Brown	11.70	Malcolm Brown	11.70
TE	George Kittle	10.50	George Kittle	10.50
W/R/T	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	0.90	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	0.90
W/R/T	Jerry Jeudy	4.00	Jerry Jeudy	4.00
K	Wil Lutz	11.00	Wil Lutz	11.00
DEF	Commanders	17.42	Commanders	17.42

Carried by One Guy: Russell Wilson, 31.92 points (23.3% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 20 – 26, 2020

Demich

86.19

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik

144.94

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.20 points left. Optimal 96.39 vs. actual 86.19.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Teddy Bridgewater	19.16	Teddy Bridgewater	19.16
WR	Will Fuller V	12.50	Julio Jones	17.70
WR	CeeDee Lamb	0.10	Will Fuller V	12.50
RB	Melvin Gordon III	12.00	Melvin Gordon III	12.00
RB	J.D. McKissic	7.10	J.D. McKissic	7.10
TE	Jonnu Smith	1.90	Jonnu Smith	1.90
W/R/T	Julio Jones	17.70	Latavius Murray	6.60
W/R/T	DK Metcalf	4.30	Damien Harris	8.00
K	Sam Sloman	5.00	Sam Sloman	5.00
DEF	Browns	6.43	Browns	6.43

Carried by One Guy: Teddy Bridgewater, 19.16 points (22.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.90 points left. Optimal 148.84 vs. actual 144.94.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Deshaun Watson	26.16	Aaron Rodgers	27.32
WR	Tyreek Hill	17.50	Tyreek Hill	17.50
WR	Robbie Chosen	13.40	Robbie Chosen	13.40
RB	Devonta Freeman	0.80	Todd Gurley	22.20
RB	Todd Gurley	22.20	Corey Clement	3.54
TE	Rob Gronkowski	17.20	Rob Gronkowski	17.20
W/R/T	A.J. Green	15.20	A.J. Green	15.20
W/R/T	Amari Cooper	15.50	Amari Cooper	15.50
K	Robbie Gould	9.00	Robbie Gould	9.00
DEF	Buccaneers	7.98	Buccaneers	7.98

Carried by One Guy: Deshaun Watson, 26.16 points (18.0% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 20 – 26, 2020

Fischer

146.20

Rank 4; -3.5 luck points

Joe Shore

186.51

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 24.90 points left. Optimal 171.10 vs. actual 146.20.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	18.38	Josh Allen	18.38
WR	Davante Adams	46.60	Davante Adams	46.60
WR	Travis Fulgham	12.30	Travis Fulgham	12.30
RB	Leonard Fournette	15.70	Leonard Fournette	15.70
RB	Justin Jackson	10.50	Justin Jackson	10.50
TE	Hayden Hurst	12.80	Hayden Hurst	12.80
W/R/T	Odell Beckham Jr.	0.00	Scotty Miller	24.90
W/R/T	Henry Ruggs III	6.50	Henry Ruggs III	6.50
K	Matt Prater	16.00	Matt Prater	16.00
DEF	Packers	7.42	Packers	7.42

Carried by One Guy: Davante Adams, 46.60 points (31.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 186.51 vs. actual 186.51.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Carson Wentz	29.76	Carson Wentz	29.76
WR	Cooper Kupp	11.90	Cooper Kupp	11.90
WR	Tee Higgins	18.80	Tee Higgins	18.80
RB	Boston Scott	18.20	Boston Scott	18.20
RB	James Robinson	33.70	James Robinson	33.70
TE	Harrison Bryant	21.60	Harrison Bryant	21.60
W/R/T	Chris Godwin Jr.	23.80	Chris Godwin Jr.	23.80
W/R/T	Deebo Samuel Sr.	12.20	Deebo Samuel Sr.	12.20
K	Randy Bullock	9.00	Randy Bullock	9.00
DEF	Patriots	7.55	Patriots	7.55

Carried by One Guy: James Robinson, 33.70 points (18.1% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 20 – 26, 2020

Nevans

136.04

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

159.33

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 47.80 points left. Optimal 183.84 vs. actual 136.04.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	12.00	Ryan Tannehill	17.30
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	26.30	DeAndre Hopkins	26.30
WR	Stefon Diggs	10.80	Stefon Diggs	10.80
RB	Kareem Hunt	19.20	Kareem Hunt	19.20
RB	Devin Singletary	6.70	Jeff Wilson Jr.	34.00
TE	Hunter Henry	5.30	Hunter Henry	5.30
W/R/T	Brandin Cooks	13.00	Brandin Cooks	13.00
W/R/T	Darius Slayton	4.30	Brandon Aiyuk	19.50
K	Harrison Butker	12.00	Harrison Butker	12.00
DEF	Chiefs	26.44	Chiefs	26.44

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Chiefs, 26.44 points (19.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Kyler Murray scored 39.10; zeroing that score creates a win.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.10 points left. Optimal 165.43 vs. actual 159.33.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	39.10	Kyler Murray	39.10
WR	DJ Moore	25.30	DJ Moore	25.30
WR	Terry McLaurin	22.00	Terry McLaurin	22.00
RB	James White	1.30	Chris Carson	5.10
RB	Ronald Jones	10.60	Ronald Jones	10.60
TE	Logan Thomas	16.00	Logan Thomas	16.00
W/R/T	Chris Carson	5.10	Christian Kirk	20.90
W/R/T	Christian Kirk	20.90	Laviska Shenault Jr.	7.40
K	Greg Zuerlein	4.00	Greg Zuerlein	4.00
DEF	Bills	15.03	Bills	15.03

Carried by One Guy: Kyler Murray, 39.10 points (24.5% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 20 – 26, 2020

Adam

103.00

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Kev

122.39

Rank 12; +4.5 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 103.00 vs. actual 103.00.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	20.40	Matthew Stafford	20.40
WR	JuJu Smith-Schuster	17.50	JuJu Smith-Schuster	17.50
WR	DJ Chark	3.60	DJ Chark	3.60
RB	David Montgomery	11.90	David Montgomery	11.90
RB	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	13.30	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	13.30
TE	Eric Ebron	11.00	Eric Ebron	11.00
W/R/T	Le'Veon Bell	3.90	Le'Veon Bell	3.90
W/R/T	Tre'Quan Smith	9.40	Tre'Quan Smith	9.40
K	Daniel Carlson	9.00	Daniel Carlson	9.00
DEF	Steelers	3.00	Steelers	3.00

Carried by One Guy: Matthew Stafford, 20.40 points (19.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Joe Burrow scored 35.64; zeroing that score creates a win.

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.22 points left. Optimal 134.61 vs. actual 122.39.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	35.64	Joe Burrow	35.64
WR	DeSean Jackson	7.64	Marvin Jones Jr.	13.00
WR	Robert Woods	5.50	DeSean Jackson	7.64
RB	James Conner	14.10	James Conner	14.10
RB	Antonio Gibson	20.80	Antonio Gibson	20.80
TE	Evan Engram	10.90	Evan Engram	10.90
W/R/T	Breshad Perriman	4.70	Mecole Hardman Jr.	9.42
W/R/T	Darrell Henderson Jr.	9.60	Darrell Henderson Jr.	9.60
K	Brandon McManus	4.00	Brandon McManus	4.00
DEF	Eagles	9.51	Eagles	9.51

Carried by One Guy: Joe Burrow, 35.64 points (29.1% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	4–3	4.154	-1.5	-0.115	1 / 2
Martin	2–5	3.692	-5.5	-0.423	0 / 1
Miller	3–4	3.615	-0.5	-0.038	0 / 1
Demich	5–2	5.000	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1
Krajcik	4–3	4.385	-6.5	-0.500	1 / 2
Big Hut	3–4	2.692	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Niz	3–4	3.077	+0.5	+0.038	1 / 0
Josh	4–3	2.769	+5.0	+0.385	2 / 0
Adam	1–6	2.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Fischer	3–4	3.000	0.0	0.000	1 / 1
Nevans	6–1	4.115	+3.0	+0.231	2 / 0
Joe Shore	3–4	2.769	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Kev	3–4	1.846	+4.5	+0.346	1 / 0
Horgan	5–2	5.885	-6.0	-0.462	0 / 2

2020 week 7 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Niz lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Krajcik lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Nevans lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Kev lineup

Cumulative totals through week 7