2020 week 5 · Luck Factor

Regular

Oct 6 – 13, 2020

j-mart

137.97

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

119.29

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.30 points left. Optimal 148.27 vs. actual 137.97.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	23.10	Drew Brees	23.10
WR	Mike Evans	15.10	Mike Evans	15.10
WR	Tyler Lockett	8.40	Tyler Lockett	8.40
RB	Mike Davis	29.90	Mike Davis	29.90
RB	Kenyan Drake	13.20	Kenyan Drake	13.20
TE	Darren Waller	15.80	Darren Waller	15.80
W/R/T	Jerick McKinnon	2.50	Jarvis Landry	12.80
W/R/T	Joe Mixon	15.40	Joe Mixon	15.40
K	Joey Slye	10.00	Joey Slye	10.00
DEF	Saints	4.57	Saints	4.57

Carried by One Guy: Mike Davis, 29.90 points (21.7% of positive starter points).

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.50 points left. Optimal 134.79 vs. actual 119.29.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	24.48	Russell Wilson	24.48
WR	Allen Robinson	19.00	Allen Robinson	19.00
WR	DeVante Parker	13.00	DeVante Parker	13.00
RB	Mark Ingram II	5.70	Chris Thompson	7.20
RB	D'Ernest Johnson	4.60	Alexander Mattison	18.60
TE	George Kittle	8.40	George Kittle	8.40
W/R/T	Randall Cobb	10.70	Randall Cobb	10.70
W/R/T	Tyler Johnson	10.10	Tyler Johnson	10.10
K	Wil Lutz	15.00	Wil Lutz	15.00
DEF	Cowboys	8.31	Cowboys	8.31

Carried by One Guy: Russell Wilson, 24.48 points (20.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Mike Davis scored 29.90; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 6 – 13, 2020

Martin

116.85

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik

150.81

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.56 points left. Optimal 131.41 vs. actual 116.85.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Herbert	27.36	Justin Herbert	27.36
WR	Keenan Allen	10.90	Keenan Allen	10.90
WR	A.J. Brown	21.20	A.J. Brown	21.20
RB	Derrick Henry	19.30	Derrick Henry	19.30
RB	Nyheim Miller-Hines	5.14	J.K. Dobbins	8.50
TE	Tyler Higbee	3.20	Tyler Higbee	3.20
W/R/T	Tyler Boyd	8.20	Tyler Boyd	8.20
W/R/T	David Moore	0.30	Keelan Cole Sr.	11.50
K	Younghoe Koo	13.00	Younghoe Koo	13.00
DEF	Bears	8.25	Bears	8.25

Carried by One Guy: Justin Herbert, 27.36 points (23.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.20 points left. Optimal 159.01 vs. actual 150.81.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Deshaun Watson	26.86	Deshaun Watson	26.86
WR	Tyreek Hill	18.30	Tyreek Hill	18.30
WR	Robbie Chosen	21.50	Robbie Chosen	21.50
RB	Todd Gurley	27.00	Todd Gurley	27.00
RB	Miles Sanders	23.90	Miles Sanders	23.90
TE	Mo Alie-Cox	0.00	Rob Gronkowski	8.20
W/R/T	Devonta Freeman	16.70	Devonta Freeman	16.70
W/R/T	Amari Cooper	4.10	Amari Cooper	4.10
K	Robbie Gould	5.00	Robbie Gould	5.00
DEF	Buccaneers	7.45	Buccaneers	7.45

Carried by One Guy: Todd Gurley, 27.00 points (17.9% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 6 – 13, 2020

Miller

154.21

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Demich

148.09

Rank 5; -2.5 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.72 points left. Optimal 158.93 vs. actual 154.21.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	14.12	Tom Brady	14.12
WR	Hollywood Brown	20.40	Jamison Crowder	27.76
WR	Diontae Johnson	1.04	Hollywood Brown	20.40
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	23.50	Ezekiel Elliott	23.50
RB	Jonathan Taylor	15.40	Jonathan Taylor	15.40
TE	Travis Kelce	26.80	Travis Kelce	26.80
W/R/T	Jamison Crowder	27.76	Chase Edmonds	20.82
W/R/T	Chase Edmonds	20.82	Tony Pollard	5.76
K	Zane Gonzalez	7.00	Zane Gonzalez	7.00
DEF	49ers	-2.63	49ers	-2.63

Carried by One Guy: Jamison Crowder, 27.76 points (17.7% of positive starter points).

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.70 points left. Optimal 153.79 vs. actual 148.09.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	13.44	Dak Prescott	13.44
WR	DK Metcalf	27.30	DK Metcalf	27.30
WR	CeeDee Lamb	22.46	CeeDee Lamb	22.46
RB	Latavius Murray	7.70	Latavius Murray	7.70
RB	J.D. McKissic	10.90	J.D. McKissic	10.90
TE	Jonnu Smith	21.00	Jonnu Smith	21.00
W/R/T	Will Fuller V	15.80	Will Fuller V	15.80
W/R/T	Justin Jefferson	5.30	Kendrick Bourne	11.00
K	Dan Bailey	11.00	Dan Bailey	11.00
DEF	Colts	13.19	Colts	13.19

Carried by One Guy: DK Metcalf, 27.30 points (18.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jamison Crowder scored 27.76; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 6 – 13, 2020

Fischer

100.31

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

182.40

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.50 points left. Optimal 104.81 vs. actual 100.31.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	16.32	Josh Allen	16.32
WR	Olamide Zaccheaus	2.30	Olamide Zaccheaus	2.30
WR	Henry Ruggs III	21.98	Henry Ruggs III	21.98
RB	Justin Jackson	14.40	Justin Jackson	14.40
RB	Myles Gaskin	20.10	Myles Gaskin	20.10
TE	Dalton Schultz	1.60	Hayden Hurst	2.80
W/R/T	Odell Beckham Jr.	11.42	Odell Beckham Jr.	11.42
W/R/T	Hayden Hurst	2.80	Cam Akers	6.10
K	Michael Badgley	2.00	Michael Badgley	2.00
DEF	Cardinals	7.39	Cardinals	7.39

Carried by One Guy: Henry Ruggs III, 21.98 points (21.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.36 points left. Optimal 189.76 vs. actual 182.40.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	28.30	Kyler Murray	28.30
WR	DJ Moore	19.30	DJ Moore	19.30
WR	Terry McLaurin	5.60	Christian Kirk	12.96
RB	Dalvin Cook	19.90	Dalvin Cook	19.90
RB	Ronald Jones	17.50	Ronald Jones	17.50
TE	Mark Andrews	17.60	Mark Andrews	17.60
W/R/T	Chris Carson	19.90	Chris Carson	19.90
W/R/T	Laviska Shenault Jr.	14.90	Laviska Shenault Jr.	14.90
K	Greg Zuerlein	13.00	Greg Zuerlein	13.00
DEF	Ravens	26.40	Ravens	26.40

Carried by One Guy: Kyler Murray, 28.30 points (15.5% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 6 – 13, 2020

Adam

110.74

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Nevans

151.05

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 21.60 points left. Optimal 132.34 vs. actual 110.74.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Gardner Minshew II	21.84	Gardner Minshew II	21.84
WR	JuJu Smith-Schuster	6.80	Emmanuel Sanders	26.20
WR	DJ Chark	4.60	JuJu Smith-Schuster	6.80
RB	David Montgomery	18.90	David Montgomery	18.90
RB	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	11.00	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	11.00
TE	Mike Gesicki	14.10	Mike Gesicki	14.10
W/R/T	Golden Tate	8.20	Golden Tate	8.20
W/R/T	Le'Veon Bell	7.70	Le'Veon Bell	7.70
K	Daniel Carlson	10.00	Daniel Carlson	10.00
DEF	Steelers	7.60	Steelers	7.60

Carried by One Guy: Gardner Minshew II, 21.84 points (19.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 24.70 points left. Optimal 175.75 vs. actual 151.05.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	31.70	Patrick Mahomes	31.70
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	27.10	DeAndre Hopkins	27.10
WR	Stefon Diggs	22.60	Stefon Diggs	22.60
RB	Kareem Hunt	18.30	Kareem Hunt	18.30
RB	Devin Singletary	4.30	Devin Singletary	4.30
TE	Hunter Henry	12.30	Hunter Henry	12.30
W/R/T	Darius Slayton	22.90	Brandin Cooks	32.10
W/R/T	Brandon Aiyuk	7.40	Darius Slayton	22.90
K	Harrison Butker	6.00	Harrison Butker	6.00
DEF	Chiefs	-1.55	Chiefs	-1.55

Carried by One Guy: Patrick Mahomes, 31.70 points (20.8% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 6 – 13, 2020

Josh

109.05

Rank 12; +4.5 luck points

Joe Shore

85.95

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.10 points left. Optimal 119.15 vs. actual 109.05.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	6.94	Matt Ryan	6.94
WR	Zach Pascal	3.50	Calvin Ridley	23.60
WR	Calvin Ridley	23.60	Jeff Smith	5.30
RB	David Johnson	12.30	David Johnson	12.30
RB	Josh Jacobs	22.50	Josh Jacobs	22.50
TE	Eric Ebron	7.30	Jared Cook	13.20
W/R/T	Jimmy Graham	12.30	Jimmy Graham	12.30
W/R/T	Jeff Smith	5.30	Devontae Booker	7.70
K	Jason Myers	3.00	Jason Myers	3.00
DEF	Rams	12.31	Rams	12.31

Carried by One Guy: Calvin Ridley, 23.60 points (21.6% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.11 points left. Optimal 94.06 vs. actual 85.95.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jared Goff	26.36	Jared Goff	26.36
WR	Cooper Kupp	12.00	Cooper Kupp	12.00
WR	Deebo Samuel Sr.	4.20	Deebo Samuel Sr.	4.20
RB	Raheem Mostert	14.90	Raheem Mostert	14.90
RB	James Robinson	10.00	James Robinson	10.00
TE	Zach Ertz	1.60	Zach Ertz	1.60
W/R/T	Russell Gage Jr.	3.60	Tee Higgins	10.20
W/R/T	Joshua Kelley	4.80	Joshua Kelley	4.80
K	Justin Tucker	10.00	Justin Tucker	10.00
DEF	Eagles	-1.51	Patriots	0.00

Carried by One Guy: Jared Goff, 26.36 points (30.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Calvin Ridley scored 23.60; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 6 – 13, 2020

Niz

119.47

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Kev

120.36

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 22.50 points left. Optimal 141.97 vs. actual 119.47.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	13.50	Lamar Jackson	13.50
WR	T.Y. Hilton	12.90	T.Y. Hilton	12.90
WR	Adam Thielen	29.30	Adam Thielen	29.30
RB	Giovani Bernard	1.40	Alvin Kamara	20.52
RB	Alvin Kamara	20.52	Wayne Gallman	4.40
TE	Greg Olsen	3.00	Greg Olsen	3.00
W/R/T	Cole Beasley	11.30	Cole Beasley	11.30
W/R/T	Sammy Watkins	10.40	Mike Williams	29.90
K	Rodrigo Blankenship	10.00	Rodrigo Blankenship	10.00
DEF	Seahawks	7.15	Seahawks	7.15

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Adam Thielen, 29.30 points (24.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Darrell Henderson Jr. scored 21.80; zeroing that score creates a win.

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 120.36 vs. actual 120.36.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	4.32	Joe Burrow	4.32
WR	Robert Woods	17.10	Robert Woods	17.10
WR	Michael Gallup	11.30	Michael Gallup	11.30
RB	James Conner	15.30	James Conner	15.30
RB	Antonio Gibson	10.10	Antonio Gibson	10.10
TE	Evan Engram	9.50	Evan Engram	9.50
W/R/T	Mecole Hardman Jr.	7.90	Mecole Hardman Jr.	7.90
W/R/T	Darrell Henderson Jr.	21.80	Darrell Henderson Jr.	21.80
K	Chris Boswell	9.00	Chris Boswell	9.00
DEF	Browns	14.04	Browns	14.04

Carried by One Guy: Darrell Henderson Jr., 21.80 points (18.1% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	3–2	2.692	0.0	0.000	1 / 1
Martin	1–4	2.462	-5.5	-0.423	0 / 1
Miller	3–2	2.846	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Demich	4–1	4.000	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1
Krajcik	2–3	3.000	-6.5	-0.500	1 / 2
Big Hut	2–3	2.154	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Niz	2–3	2.385	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Josh	2–3	1.462	+4.5	+0.346	1 / 0
Adam	1–4	1.769	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Fischer	3–2	1.923	+3.5	+0.269	1 / 0
Nevans	5–0	3.346	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 0
Joe Shore	1–4	1.154	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Kev	2–3	1.615	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Horgan	4–1	4.192	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1

2020 week 5 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Krajcik lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Demich lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Nevans lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Niz lineup

Kev lineup

Cumulative totals through week 5