2020 week 15 · Luck Factor

Consolation

Dec 15 – 21, 2020

j-mart

123.33

Fischer

145.69

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.70 points left. Optimal 124.03 vs. actual 123.33.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Mitchell Trubisky	13.48	Mitchell Trubisky	13.48
WR	Mike Evans	19.00	Dez Bryant	8.10
WR	Tyler Lockett	7.40	Mike Evans	19.00
RB	Mike Davis	8.10	Mike Davis	8.10
RB	Kenyan Drake	6.00	Kenyan Drake	6.00
TE	Darren Waller	32.00	Darren Waller	32.00
W/R/T	T.Y. Hilton	11.10	T.Y. Hilton	11.10
W/R/T	Jarvis Landry	19.10	Jarvis Landry	19.10
K	Mason Crosby	8.00	Mason Crosby	8.00
DEF	Lions	-0.85	Lions	-0.85

Carried by One Guy: Darren Waller, 32.00 points (25.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Josh Allen scored 39.66; zeroing that score creates a win.

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.60 points left. Optimal 156.29 vs. actual 145.69.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	39.66	Josh Allen	39.66
WR	Davante Adams	11.20	Davante Adams	11.20
WR	DJ Chark	9.30	DJ Chark	9.30
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	26.80	James White	9.50
RB	Cam Akers	7.20	Aaron Jones Sr.	26.80
TE	Dallas Goedert	7.90	Dallas Goedert	7.90
W/R/T	Leonard Fournette	21.50	Leonard Fournette	21.50
W/R/T	Gabe Davis	3.80	Hayden Hurst	12.10
K	Tyler Bass	10.00	Tyler Bass	10.00
DEF	Browns	8.33	Browns	8.33

Carried by One Guy: Josh Allen, 39.66 points (27.2% of positive starter points).

Consolation

Dec 15 – 21, 2020

Martin

134.09

Krajcik

88.53

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.14 points left. Optimal 145.23 vs. actual 134.09.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	12.16	Cam Newton	12.16
WR	Keenan Allen	2.60	Rashard Higgins	11.60
WR	A.J. Brown	15.40	A.J. Brown	15.40
RB	Derrick Henry	27.20	Derrick Henry	27.20
RB	Austin Ekeler	11.90	Austin Ekeler	11.90
TE	Noah Fant	20.80	Noah Fant	20.80
W/R/T	Nyheim Miller-Hines	7.66	Gus Edwards	9.80
W/R/T	J.K. Dobbins	15.10	J.K. Dobbins	15.10
K	Younghoe Koo	11.00	Younghoe Koo	11.00
DEF	Seahawks	10.27	Seahawks	10.27

Carried by One Guy: Derrick Henry, 27.20 points (20.3% of positive starter points).

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.88 points left. Optimal 96.41 vs. actual 88.53.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	18.32	Deshaun Watson	25.42
WR	Amari Cooper	2.30	Cordarrelle Patterson	3.08
WR	Tyreek Hill	17.40	Tyreek Hill	17.40
RB	Todd Gurley	3.40	Todd Gurley	3.40
RB	Miles Sanders	10.00	Miles Sanders	10.00
TE	Rob Gronkowski	5.90	Rob Gronkowski	5.90
W/R/T	Robbie Chosen	4.00	Robbie Chosen	4.00
W/R/T	Laviska Shenault Jr.	9.40	Laviska Shenault Jr.	9.40
K	Jason Sanders	2.00	Jason Sanders	2.00
DEF	Cowboys	15.81	Cowboys	15.81

Carried by One Guy: Aaron Rodgers, 18.32 points (20.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Consolation

Dec 15 – 21, 2020

Big Hut

82.54

Josh

145.29

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.50 points left. Optimal 85.04 vs. actual 82.54.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	12.04	Russell Wilson	12.04
WR	Allen Robinson	12.30	Allen Robinson	12.30
WR	Curtis Samuel	8.80	Curtis Samuel	8.80
RB	Jordan Wilkins	0.00	Boston Scott	3.58
RB	Boston Scott	3.58	Alexander Mattison	2.50
TE	Logan Thomas	25.10	Logan Thomas	25.10
W/R/T	David Moore	3.50	David Moore	3.50
W/R/T	Jerry Jeudy	2.90	Jerry Jeudy	2.90
K	Wil Lutz	3.00	Wil Lutz	3.00
DEF	Colts	11.32	Colts	11.32

Carried by One Guy: Logan Thomas, 25.10 points (30.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 23.70 points left. Optimal 168.99 vs. actual 145.29.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Herbert	29.96	Justin Herbert	29.96
WR	Josh Reynolds	2.90	Tim Patrick	4.40
WR	Calvin Ridley	34.30	Calvin Ridley	34.30
RB	David Johnson	26.30	David Johnson	26.30
RB	Devontae Booker	1.20	Benny Snell Jr.	19.70
TE	Dalton Schultz	9.40	Dalton Schultz	9.40
W/R/T	Giovani Bernard	22.70	Giovani Bernard	22.70
W/R/T	Tim Patrick	4.40	Zack Moss	8.10
K	Rodrigo Blankenship	11.00	Rodrigo Blankenship	11.00
DEF	Rams	3.13	Rams	3.13

Carried by One Guy: Calvin Ridley, 34.30 points (23.6% of positive starter points).

Playoff

Dec 15 – 21, 2020

Demich

130.08

Nevans

184.75

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.10 points left. Optimal 145.18 vs. actual 130.08.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Derek Carr	2.12	Derek Carr	2.12
WR	DK Metcalf	9.30	CeeDee Lamb	20.76
WR	Justin Jefferson	20.40	Justin Jefferson	20.40
RB	J.D. McKissic	25.70	J.D. McKissic	25.70
RB	Nick Chubb	14.60	Nick Chubb	14.60
TE	Dan Arnold	8.40	Dan Arnold	8.40
W/R/T	Allen Lazard	10.60	Latavius Murray	10.90
W/R/T	CeeDee Lamb	20.76	Melvin Gordon III	24.10
K	Ka'imi Fairbairn	7.00	Ka'imi Fairbairn	7.00
DEF	Cardinals	11.20	Cardinals	11.20

Carried by One Guy: J.D. McKissic, 25.70 points (19.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.70 points left. Optimal 197.45 vs. actual 184.75.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	25.86	Patrick Mahomes	25.86
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	32.00	DeAndre Hopkins	32.00
WR	Stefon Diggs	27.70	Stefon Diggs	27.70
RB	Kareem Hunt	5.80	Devin Singletary	17.40
RB	Salvon Ahmed	23.70	Salvon Ahmed	23.70
TE	Hunter Henry	17.50	Hunter Henry	17.50
W/R/T	Robert Tonyan	10.80	Brandin Cooks	11.90
W/R/T	Brandon Aiyuk	22.30	Brandon Aiyuk	22.30
K	Harrison Butker	5.00	Harrison Butker	5.00
DEF	Bills	14.09	Bills	14.09

Carried by One Guy: DeAndre Hopkins, 32.00 points (17.3% of positive starter points).

Playoff

Dec 15 – 21, 2020

Niz

105.57

Kev

109.42

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 24.00 points left. Optimal 129.57 vs. actual 105.57.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	29.22	Lamar Jackson	29.22
WR	Sterling Shepard	8.80	Cole Beasley	21.20
WR	Mike Williams	4.20	Sammy Watkins	10.00
RB	Alvin Kamara	18.40	Alvin Kamara	18.40
RB	Jamaal Williams	4.00	Ty Johnson	17.50
TE	T.J. Hockenson	1.80	T.J. Hockenson	1.80
W/R/T	Cole Beasley	21.20	Adam Thielen	9.10
W/R/T	Adam Thielen	9.10	Frank Gore	13.50
K	Graham Gano	6.00	Graham Gano	6.00
DEF	Chiefs	2.85	Chiefs	2.85

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Lamar Jackson, 29.22 points (27.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Marvin Jones Jr. scored 29.20; zeroing that score creates a win.

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 52.10 points left. Optimal 161.52 vs. actual 109.42.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Philip Rivers	17.02	Jalen Hurts	39.82
WR	Robert Woods	21.60	Robert Woods	21.60
WR	Keke Coutee	14.30	Keke Coutee	14.30
RB	James Conner	0.00	Ito Smith	5.30
RB	Antonio Gibson	0.00	Jeff Wilson Jr.	12.00
TE	Evan Engram	8.60	Evan Engram	8.60
W/R/T	Marvin Jones Jr.	29.20	Marvin Jones Jr.	29.20
W/R/T	Tee Higgins	6.10	Jakobi Meyers	18.10
K	Ryan Succop	6.00	Ryan Succop	6.00
DEF	Saints	6.60	Saints	6.60

Carried by One Guy: Marvin Jones Jr., 29.20 points (26.7% of positive starter points).

Playoff

Dec 15 – 21, 2020

Miller

177.45

Horgan

169.92

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.80 points left. Optimal 185.25 vs. actual 177.45.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	25.40	Tom Brady	25.40
WR	Hollywood Brown	15.80	Hollywood Brown	15.80
WR	Diontae Johnson	19.90	Diontae Johnson	19.90
RB	D'Andre Swift	22.20	D'Andre Swift	22.20
RB	Jonathan Taylor	19.50	Jonathan Taylor	19.50
TE	Travis Kelce	22.80	Travis Kelce	22.80
W/R/T	Tony Pollard	31.60	Chase Edmonds	15.60
W/R/T	Chase Claypool	7.80	Tony Pollard	31.60
K	Dustin Hopkins	3.00	Dustin Hopkins	3.00
DEF	Dolphins	9.45	Dolphins	9.45

Carried by One Guy: Tony Pollard, 31.60 points (17.8% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 20.30 points left. Optimal 190.22 vs. actual 169.92.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	35.14	Kyler Murray	35.14
WR	DJ Moore	21.20	DJ Moore	21.20
WR	Terry McLaurin	14.70	Terry McLaurin	14.70
RB	Dalvin Cook	28.90	Carlos Hyde	14.30
RB	Chris Carson	8.90	Dalvin Cook	28.90
TE	Mark Andrews	17.60	Mark Andrews	17.60
W/R/T	Antonio Brown	20.30	Antonio Brown	20.30
W/R/T	Wayne Gallman	2.90	Russell Gage Jr.	17.80
K	Justin Tucker	9.00	Justin Tucker	9.00
DEF	Ravens	11.28	Ravens	11.28

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Kyler Murray, 35.14 points (20.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Tony Pollard scored 31.60; zeroing that score creates a win.

2020 week 15 matchups

Matchups

Consolation

j-mart lineup

Fischer lineup

Consolation

Martin lineup

Krajcik lineup

Consolation

Big Hut lineup

Josh lineup

Playoff

Demich lineup

Nevans lineup

Playoff

Niz lineup

Kev lineup

Playoff

Miller lineup

Horgan lineup