2020 week 2 · Luck Factor

Regular

Sep 15 – 21, 2020

j-mart

126.32

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Miller

143.47

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 23.00 points left. Optimal 149.32 vs. actual 126.32.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Carson Wentz	12.38	Baker Mayfield	15.26
WR	Tyler Lockett	19.70	Tyler Lockett	19.70
WR	Anthony Miller	0.00	Corey Davis	12.60
RB	Kenyan Drake	11.50	Kenyan Drake	11.50
RB	Joe Mixon	12.60	Joe Mixon	12.60
TE	Darren Waller	30.50	Darren Waller	30.50
W/R/T	Mike Evans	25.40	Mike Evans	25.40
W/R/T	Jarvis Landry	7.60	Jerick McKinnon	15.12
K	Matt Prater	3.00	Matt Prater	3.00
DEF	Saints	3.64	Saints	3.64

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Darren Waller, 30.50 points (24.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Diontae Johnson scored 24.18; zeroing that score creates a win.

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.10 points left. Optimal 157.57 vs. actual 143.47.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	8.68	Tom Brady	8.68
WR	Hollywood Brown	9.20	N'Keal Harry	15.20
WR	Diontae Johnson	24.18	Diontae Johnson	24.18
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	22.20	Ezekiel Elliott	22.20
RB	Jonathan Taylor	21.00	Jonathan Taylor	21.00
TE	Travis Kelce	24.00	Travis Kelce	24.00
W/R/T	Adrian Peterson	4.10	D'Andre Swift	12.20
W/R/T	DeSean Jackson	12.40	DeSean Jackson	12.40
K	Zane Gonzalez	12.00	Zane Gonzalez	12.00
DEF	49ers	5.71	49ers	5.71

Carried by One Guy: Diontae Johnson, 24.18 points (16.9% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 15 – 21, 2020

Josh

131.69

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Adam

148.09

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.10 points left. Optimal 143.79 vs. actual 131.69.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	28.52	Matt Ryan	28.52
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	12.00	Calvin Ridley	31.90
WR	Calvin Ridley	31.90	Larry Fitzgerald	12.00
RB	David Johnson	7.00	David Johnson	7.00
RB	Josh Jacobs	13.50	Josh Jacobs	13.50
TE	Jared Cook	9.30	Jared Cook	9.30
W/R/T	Chris Herndon	1.50	Courtland Sutton	9.60
W/R/T	Zack Moss	3.70	Michael Pittman Jr.	7.70
K	Younghoe Koo	16.00	Younghoe Koo	16.00
DEF	Rams	8.27	Rams	8.27

Carried by One Guy: Calvin Ridley, 31.90 points (24.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Julian Edelman scored 27.90; zeroing that score creates a win.

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.90 points left. Optimal 154.99 vs. actual 148.09.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ryan Tannehill	26.76	Ryan Tannehill	26.76
WR	JuJu Smith-Schuster	11.80	JuJu Smith-Schuster	11.80
WR	DJ Chark	12.40	DJ Chark	12.40
RB	David Montgomery	21.70	David Montgomery	21.70
RB	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	13.00	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	13.00
TE	Logan Thomas	6.60	Logan Thomas	6.60
W/R/T	Julian Edelman	27.90	Golden Tate	9.70
W/R/T	Emmanuel Sanders	2.80	Julian Edelman	27.90
K	Daniel Carlson	11.00	Daniel Carlson	11.00
DEF	Steelers	14.13	Steelers	14.13

Carried by One Guy: Julian Edelman, 27.90 points (18.8% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 15 – 21, 2020

Niz

102.13

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

151.97

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.90 points left. Optimal 114.03 vs. actual 102.13.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	17.56	Lamar Jackson	17.56
WR	T.Y. Hilton	5.80	T.Y. Hilton	5.80
WR	Adam Thielen	6.10	Adam Thielen	6.10
RB	Alvin Kamara	38.40	Alvin Kamara	38.40
RB	Jamaal Williams	8.30	Jamaal Williams	8.30
TE	T.J. Hockenson	10.20	T.J. Hockenson	10.20
W/R/T	Sammy Watkins	2.10	Cole Beasley	12.00
W/R/T	Sterling Shepard	5.50	Giovani Bernard	7.50
K	Brandon McManus	7.00	Brandon McManus	7.00
DEF	Bills	1.17	Bills	1.17

Carried by One Guy: Alvin Kamara, 38.40 points (37.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 53.08 points left. Optimal 205.05 vs. actual 151.97.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	36.50	Josh Allen	36.50
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	17.40	Randall Cobb	10.90
WR	Davante Adams	6.60	Odell Beckham Jr.	17.40
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	47.60	Leonard Fournette	29.60
RB	Cam Akers	1.30	Aaron Jones Sr.	47.60
TE	Hayden Hurst	18.20	Hayden Hurst	18.20
W/R/T	Preston Williams	5.60	Tre'Quan Smith	13.60
W/R/T	Henry Ruggs III	1.72	Myles Gaskin	14.20
K	Ryan Succop	7.00	Ryan Succop	7.00
DEF	Cardinals	10.05	Cardinals	10.05

Carried by One Guy: Aaron Jones Sr., 47.60 points (31.3% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 15 – 21, 2020

Big Hut

125.05

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Nevans

162.45

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.40 points left. Optimal 135.45 vs. actual 125.05.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	33.42	Russell Wilson	33.42
WR	Marvin Jones Jr.	12.30	Marvin Jones Jr.	12.30
WR	Allen Robinson	6.30	Allen Robinson	6.30
RB	Mark Ingram II	15.70	Mark Ingram II	15.70
RB	Christian McCaffrey	24.80	Christian McCaffrey	24.80
TE	Eric Ebron	7.30	Eric Ebron	7.30
W/R/T	Curtis Samuel	5.90	DeVante Parker	16.30
W/R/T	Jerry Jeudy	10.20	Jerry Jeudy	10.20
K	Wil Lutz	6.00	Wil Lutz	6.00
DEF	Browns	3.13	Browns	3.13

Carried by One Guy: Russell Wilson, 33.42 points (26.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.50 points left. Optimal 171.95 vs. actual 162.45.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	29.48	Patrick Mahomes	29.48
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	20.80	DeAndre Hopkins	20.80
WR	Stefon Diggs	31.30	Stefon Diggs	31.30
RB	Kareem Hunt	24.10	Kareem Hunt	24.10
RB	Devin Singletary	9.60	Devin Singletary	9.60
TE	Hunter Henry	14.30	Hunter Henry	14.30
W/R/T	Darius Slayton	6.30	Brandin Cooks	14.50
W/R/T	Jalen Reagor	8.10	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	9.40
K	Harrison Butker	12.00	Harrison Butker	12.00
DEF	Chiefs	6.47	Chiefs	6.47

Carried by One Guy: Stefon Diggs, 31.30 points (19.3% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 15 – 21, 2020

Krajcik

134.00

Rank 8; +0.5 luck points

Joe Shore

132.08

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 134.00 vs. actual 134.00.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	19.20	Aaron Rodgers	19.20
WR	A.J. Green	5.90	A.J. Green	5.90
WR	Tyreek Hill	21.80	Tyreek Hill	21.80
RB	Todd Gurley	6.10	Todd Gurley	6.10
RB	Miles Sanders	20.10	Miles Sanders	20.10
TE	Rob Gronkowski	0.00	Rob Gronkowski	0.00
W/R/T	Amari Cooper	18.00	Amari Cooper	18.00
W/R/T	Robbie Chosen	19.90	Robbie Chosen	19.90
K	Robbie Gould	8.00	Robbie Gould	8.00
DEF	Buccaneers	15.00	Buccaneers	15.00

Carried by One Guy: Tyreek Hill, 21.80 points (16.3% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.42 points left. Optimal 138.50 vs. actual 132.08.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	16.48	Drew Brees	16.48
WR	Cooper Kupp	13.16	Cooper Kupp	13.16
WR	Russell Gage Jr.	16.60	Russell Gage Jr.	16.60
RB	Raheem Mostert	18.70	Raheem Mostert	18.70
RB	James Robinson	23.00	James Robinson	23.00
TE	Zach Ertz	9.20	Zach Ertz	9.20
W/R/T	Dallas Goedert	7.00	Boston Scott	8.52
W/R/T	Quintez Cephus	8.40	Joshua Kelley	13.30
K	Justin Tucker	15.00	Justin Tucker	15.00
DEF	Titans	4.54	Titans	4.54

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: James Robinson, 23.00 points (17.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Tyreek Hill scored 21.80; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 15 – 21, 2020

Demich

159.65

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Kev

95.81

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.70 points left. Optimal 173.35 vs. actual 159.65.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	41.80	Dak Prescott	41.80
WR	Julio Jones	4.40	Kendrick Bourne	10.70
WR	Will Fuller V	0.00	Justin Jefferson	7.40
RB	Melvin Gordon III	16.40	Melvin Gordon III	16.40
RB	Nick Chubb	28.30	Nick Chubb	28.30
TE	Jonnu Smith	24.40	Jonnu Smith	24.40
W/R/T	DK Metcalf	19.20	DK Metcalf	19.20
W/R/T	CeeDee Lamb	19.56	CeeDee Lamb	19.56
K	Dan Bailey	2.00	Dan Bailey	2.00
DEF	Commanders	3.59	Commanders	3.59

Carried by One Guy: Dak Prescott, 41.80 points (26.2% of positive starter points).

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 21.84 points left. Optimal 117.65 vs. actual 95.81.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Daniel Jones	7.74	Daniel Jones	7.74
WR	Robert Woods	11.30	Robert Woods	11.30
WR	Michael Gallup	7.80	Michael Gallup	7.80
RB	Tarik Cohen	3.70	James Conner	22.10
RB	Saquon Barkley	2.80	Darrell Henderson Jr.	20.10
TE	Evan Engram	12.50	Evan Engram	12.50
W/R/T	James Conner	22.10	Mecole Hardman Jr.	8.24
W/R/T	Antonio Gibson	12.20	Antonio Gibson	12.20
K	Chris Boswell	5.00	Chris Boswell	5.00
DEF	Giants	10.67	Giants	10.67

Carried by One Guy: James Conner, 22.10 points (23.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 15 – 21, 2020

Martin

166.31

Rank 2; -5.5 luck points

Horgan

169.67

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.70 points left. Optimal 183.01 vs. actual 166.31.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	36.58	Cam Newton	36.58
WR	Keenan Allen	16.60	John Brown	18.20
WR	John Brown	18.20	Keelan Cole Sr.	17.80
RB	Derrick Henry	8.40	Derrick Henry	8.40
RB	Austin Ekeler	18.80	Austin Ekeler	18.80
TE	Tyler Higbee	28.40	Tyler Higbee	28.40
W/R/T	Tyler Boyd	20.20	Tyler Boyd	20.20
W/R/T	Nyheim Miller-Hines	2.20	Noah Fant	17.70
K	Joey Slye	4.00	Joey Slye	4.00
DEF	Bears	12.93	Bears	12.93

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Cam Newton, 36.58 points (22.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Kyler Murray scored 32.14; zeroing that score creates a win.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.30 points left. Optimal 170.97 vs. actual 169.67.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	32.14	Kyler Murray	32.14
WR	DJ Moore	22.00	DJ Moore	22.00
WR	Terry McLaurin	27.50	Terry McLaurin	27.50
RB	Dalvin Cook	17.10	Dalvin Cook	17.10
RB	Chris Carson	19.80	Chris Carson	19.80
TE	Mark Andrews	3.90	Mark Andrews	3.90
W/R/T	Rex Burkhead	8.90	Ronald Jones	10.70
W/R/T	Ronald Jones	10.70	Laviska Shenault Jr.	10.20
K	Greg Zuerlein	11.00	Greg Zuerlein	11.00
DEF	Ravens	16.63	Ravens	16.63

Carried by One Guy: Kyler Murray, 32.14 points (18.9% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	1–1	0.538	+2.5	+0.192	1 / 0
Martin	0–2	1.077	-5.5	-0.423	0 / 1
Miller	2–0	1.385	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Demich	2–0	1.385	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Krajcik	1–1	0.692	+0.5	+0.038	1 / 0
Big Hut	1–1	0.692	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Niz	1–1	1.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Josh	1–1	1.308	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Adam	1–1	1.077	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Fischer	1–1	1.077	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Nevans	2–0	1.615	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Joe Shore	0–2	0.462	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Kev	0–2	0.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Horgan	1–1	1.692	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1

2020 week 2 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Miller lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Niz lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Nevans lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 2