2020 week 13 · Luck Factor

Regular

Dec 3 – 8, 2020

j-mart

187.23

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

115.46

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 187.23 vs. actual 187.23.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Mitchell Trubisky	13.28	Mitchell Trubisky	13.28
WR	Jarvis Landry	20.44	Jarvis Landry	20.44
WR	Tyler Lockett	12.30	Tyler Lockett	12.30
RB	Adrian Peterson	17.70	Kenyan Drake	13.80
RB	Kenyan Drake	13.80	Adrian Peterson	17.70
TE	Darren Waller	47.00	Darren Waller	47.00
W/R/T	T.Y. Hilton	27.00	T.Y. Hilton	27.00
W/R/T	Mike Gesicki	23.80	Mike Gesicki	23.80
K	Mason Crosby	6.00	Mason Crosby	6.00
DEF	Lions	5.91	Lions	5.91

Carried by One Guy: Darren Waller, 47.00 points (25.1% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.90 points left. Optimal 118.36 vs. actual 115.46.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	16.42	Kyler Murray	16.42
WR	Christian Kirk	1.20	Terry McLaurin	3.40
WR	Terry McLaurin	3.40	KJ Hamler	4.86
RB	Dalvin Cook	25.90	Dalvin Cook	25.90
RB	Chris Carson	20.00	Chris Carson	20.00
TE	Zach Ertz	5.10	Zach Ertz	5.10
W/R/T	Wayne Gallman	15.50	Carlos Hyde	4.10
W/R/T	KJ Hamler	4.86	Wayne Gallman	15.50
K	Justin Tucker	9.00	Justin Tucker	9.00
DEF	Dolphins	14.08	Dolphins	14.08

Carried by One Guy: Dalvin Cook, 25.90 points (22.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Dec 3 – 8, 2020

Big Hut

85.56

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Adam

137.10

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.00 points left. Optimal 91.56 vs. actual 85.56.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	15.02	Russell Wilson	15.02
WR	Allen Robinson	13.50	Allen Robinson	13.50
WR	DeVante Parker	7.50	DeVante Parker	7.50
RB	Royce Freeman	0.00	Malcolm Brown	3.70
RB	Boston Scott	4.22	Boston Scott	4.22
TE	Logan Thomas	24.80	Logan Thomas	24.80
W/R/T	David Moore	1.84	David Moore	1.84
W/R/T	Jerry Jeudy	1.50	Jordan Wilkins	3.80
K	Wil Lutz	3.00	Wil Lutz	3.00
DEF	Colts	14.18	Colts	14.18

Carried by One Guy: Logan Thomas, 24.80 points (29.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.04 points left. Optimal 153.14 vs. actual 137.10.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ben Roethlisberger	20.20	Jared Goff	26.14
WR	Nelson Agholor	7.80	Corey Davis	37.20
WR	Michael Pittman Jr.	9.60	Michael Pittman Jr.	9.60
RB	David Montgomery	27.10	Le'Veon Bell	7.50
RB	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	0.00	David Montgomery	27.10
TE	Eric Ebron	13.80	Eric Ebron	13.80
W/R/T	Corey Davis	37.20	Gerald Everett	10.40
W/R/T	JuJu Smith-Schuster	9.80	JuJu Smith-Schuster	9.80
K	Daniel Carlson	8.00	Daniel Carlson	8.00
DEF	Steelers	3.60	Steelers	3.60

Carried by One Guy: Corey Davis, 37.20 points (27.1% of positive starter points).

Regular

Dec 3 – 8, 2020

Niz

133.03

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Josh

93.09

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.48 points left. Optimal 146.51 vs. actual 133.03.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	25.68	Baker Mayfield	31.46
WR	Sterling Shepard	5.20	Sammy Watkins	7.50
WR	Mike Williams	8.30	Mike Williams	8.30
RB	Frank Gore	0.20	Alvin Kamara	17.70
RB	Alvin Kamara	17.70	Jamaal Williams	5.60
TE	T.J. Hockenson	15.40	T.J. Hockenson	15.40
W/R/T	Cole Beasley	30.00	Cole Beasley	30.00
W/R/T	Adam Thielen	21.50	Adam Thielen	21.50
K	Graham Gano	3.00	Graham Gano	3.00
DEF	Chiefs	6.05	Chiefs	6.05

Carried by One Guy: Cole Beasley, 30.00 points (22.6% of positive starter points).

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.26 points left. Optimal 110.35 vs. actual 93.09.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Herbert	4.36	Matt Ryan	12.92
WR	Josh Reynolds	3.10	Tim Patrick	20.40
WR	Calvin Ridley	17.80	Calvin Ridley	17.80
RB	David Johnson	10.40	David Johnson	10.40
RB	Devontae Booker	6.10	Devontae Booker	6.10
TE	Dalton Schultz	8.40	Dalton Schultz	8.40
W/R/T	Giovani Bernard	4.90	Giovani Bernard	4.90
W/R/T	Tim Patrick	20.40	Jared Cook	11.80
K	Rodrigo Blankenship	7.00	Rodrigo Blankenship	7.00
DEF	Rams	10.63	Rams	10.63

Carried by One Guy: Tim Patrick, 20.40 points (21.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Dec 3 – 8, 2020

Krajcik

107.70

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

163.89

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.26 points left. Optimal 120.96 vs. actual 107.70.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Deshaun Watson	21.44	Aaron Rodgers	23.50
WR	Amari Cooper	16.30	Amari Cooper	16.30
WR	Tyreek Hill	14.80	Tyreek Hill	14.80
RB	Todd Gurley	3.00	Cordarrelle Patterson	14.20
RB	Miles Sanders	3.10	Miles Sanders	3.10
TE	Trey Burton	2.10	Trey Burton	2.10
W/R/T	Hunter Renfrow	9.16	Hunter Renfrow	9.16
W/R/T	Laviska Shenault Jr.	15.80	Laviska Shenault Jr.	15.80
K	Jason Sanders	10.00	Jason Sanders	10.00
DEF	Packers	12.00	Packers	12.00

Carried by One Guy: Deshaun Watson, 21.44 points (19.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.06 points left. Optimal 180.95 vs. actual 163.89.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	32.10	Josh Allen	32.10
WR	Davante Adams	36.10	Davante Adams	36.10
WR	DJ Chark	6.10	Henry Ruggs III	16.04
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	25.80	Aaron Jones Sr.	25.80
RB	Myles Gaskin	14.10	Myles Gaskin	14.10
TE	Dallas Goedert	11.60	Dallas Goedert	11.60
W/R/T	Henry Ruggs III	16.04	Cam Akers	16.40
W/R/T	Gabe Davis	15.80	Gabe Davis	15.80
K	Tyler Bass	9.00	Tyler Bass	9.00
DEF	Chargers	-2.75	Browns	4.01

Carried by One Guy: Davante Adams, 36.10 points (21.7% of positive starter points).

Regular

Dec 3 – 8, 2020

Demich

150.89

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Nevans

141.28

Rank 5; -2.5 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 20.80 points left. Optimal 171.69 vs. actual 150.89.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Derek Carr	33.74	Derek Carr	33.74
WR	DK Metcalf	13.00	DK Metcalf	13.00
WR	Justin Jefferson	29.30	Justin Jefferson	29.30
RB	Nick Chubb	17.60	Melvin Gordon III	17.20
RB	Damien Harris	10.50	Nick Chubb	17.60
TE	Anthony Firkser	10.10	Anthony Firkser	10.10
W/R/T	Julio Jones	15.40	Julio Jones	15.40
W/R/T	Latavius Murray	3.70	J.D. McKissic	17.80
K	Ka'imi Fairbairn	10.00	Ka'imi Fairbairn	10.00
DEF	Raiders	7.55	Raiders	7.55

Carried by One Guy: Derek Carr, 33.74 points (22.4% of positive starter points).

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.46 points left. Optimal 157.74 vs. actual 141.28.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	21.32	Patrick Mahomes	21.32
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	19.20	DeAndre Hopkins	19.20
WR	Stefon Diggs	19.20	Stefon Diggs	19.20
RB	Duke Johnson	9.20	Duke Johnson	9.20
RB	Kareem Hunt	8.70	Devin Singletary	11.30
TE	Hunter Henry	1.50	Robert Tonyan	13.90
W/R/T	Brandin Cooks	11.50	Jalen Reagor	12.96
W/R/T	Brandon Aiyuk	20.82	Brandon Aiyuk	20.82
K	Harrison Butker	15.00	Harrison Butker	15.00
DEF	Vikings	14.84	Vikings	14.84

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Patrick Mahomes, 21.32 points (15.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Derek Carr scored 33.74; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Dec 3 – 8, 2020

Miller

146.27

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

125.69

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.90 points left. Optimal 162.17 vs. actual 146.27.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kirk Cousins	23.40	Kirk Cousins	23.40
WR	Diontae Johnson	21.10	Jamison Crowder	21.70
WR	Chase Claypool	5.80	Diontae Johnson	21.10
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	13.50	Ezekiel Elliott	13.50
RB	Jonathan Taylor	22.50	Jonathan Taylor	22.50
TE	Travis Kelce	29.60	Travis Kelce	29.60
W/R/T	Hollywood Brown	14.90	Hollywood Brown	14.90
W/R/T	Denzel Mims	8.00	Denzel Mims	8.00
K	Stephen Gostkowski	3.00	Stephen Gostkowski	3.00
DEF	Bills	4.47	Bills	4.47

Carried by One Guy: Travis Kelce, 29.60 points (20.2% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.10 points left. Optimal 135.79 vs. actual 125.69.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ryan Tannehill	29.56	Ryan Tannehill	29.56
WR	Michael Thomas	21.50	Michael Thomas	21.50
WR	Deebo Samuel Sr.	13.60	Deebo Samuel Sr.	13.60
RB	Raheem Mostert	5.30	Darrell Henderson Jr.	15.40
RB	James Robinson	22.80	James Robinson	22.80
TE	Austin Hooper	4.40	Austin Hooper	4.40
W/R/T	Cooper Kupp	15.30	Cooper Kupp	15.30
W/R/T	Darnell Mooney	8.40	Darnell Mooney	8.40
K	Robbie Gould	7.00	Robbie Gould	7.00
DEF	Titans	-2.17	Titans	-2.17

Carried by One Guy: Ryan Tannehill, 29.56 points (23.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Travis Kelce scored 29.60; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Dec 3 – 8, 2020

Martin

109.88

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Kev

122.31

Rank 9; +1.5 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 31.10 points left. Optimal 140.98 vs. actual 109.88.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	23.56	Cam Newton	23.56
WR	Keenan Allen	9.80	Tyler Boyd	14.20
WR	A.J. Brown	10.70	Rashard Higgins	21.50
RB	Derrick Henry	5.90	Austin Ekeler	10.80
RB	Austin Ekeler	10.80	Gus Edwards	12.10
TE	Kyle Rudolph	0.00	Noah Fant	9.70
W/R/T	Nyheim Miller-Hines	13.02	Nyheim Miller-Hines	13.02
W/R/T	J.K. Dobbins	13.10	J.K. Dobbins	13.10
K	Younghoe Koo	11.00	Younghoe Koo	11.00
DEF	Seahawks	12.00	Seahawks	12.00

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Cam Newton, 23.56 points (21.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Marvin Jones Jr. scored 27.60; zeroing that score creates a win.

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 21.40 points left. Optimal 143.71 vs. actual 122.31.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Philip Rivers	19.20	Philip Rivers	19.20
WR	Robert Woods	18.50	Robert Woods	18.50
WR	Breshad Perriman	3.20	Michael Gallup	21.60
RB	Jalen Richard	2.70	Jalen Richard	2.70
RB	Antonio Gibson	1.40	Ito Smith	4.40
TE	Evan Engram	7.20	Evan Engram	7.20
W/R/T	Marvin Jones Jr.	27.60	Marvin Jones Jr.	27.60
W/R/T	Keke Coutee	27.34	Keke Coutee	27.34
K	Matt Gay	8.00	Matt Gay	8.00
DEF	Saints	7.17	Saints	7.17

Carried by One Guy: Marvin Jones Jr., 27.60 points (22.6% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	6–7	7.462	-3.5	-0.269	1 / 4
Martin	6–7	7.462	-5.5	-0.423	0 / 1
Miller	7–6	6.769	+2.0	+0.154	1 / 1
Demich	10–3	9.154	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1
Krajcik	6–7	6.769	-5.0	-0.385	2 / 2
Big Hut	5–8	4.462	+2.0	+0.154	1 / 1
Niz	7–6	5.538	+5.0	+0.385	2 / 0
Josh	5–8	4.077	+5.0	+0.385	2 / 0
Adam	3–10	4.385	+1.0	+0.077	1 / 1
Fischer	6–7	6.385	0.0	0.000	2 / 2
Nevans	9–4	7.500	+1.0	+0.077	3 / 1
Joe Shore	3–10	5.538	-5.5	-0.423	0 / 3
Kev	8–5	5.769	+5.5	+0.423	2 / 1
Horgan	10–3	9.731	0.0	0.000	2 / 2

2020 week 13 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Niz lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Nevans lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Kev lineup

Cumulative totals through week 13