2020 week 6 · Luck Factor

Regular

Oct 14 – 19, 2020

j-mart

143.28

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Niz

107.95

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 143.28 vs. actual 143.28.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kirk Cousins	25.72	Kirk Cousins	25.72
WR	Mike Evans	2.00	Mike Evans	2.00
WR	Jarvis Landry	7.00	Jarvis Landry	7.00
RB	Mike Davis	11.50	Mike Davis	11.50
RB	Kenyan Drake	30.40	Kenyan Drake	30.40
TE	Trey Burton	21.90	Trey Burton	21.90
W/R/T	Jerick McKinnon	4.80	Jerick McKinnon	4.80
W/R/T	Joe Mixon	14.90	Joe Mixon	14.90
K	Joey Slye	9.00	Joey Slye	9.00
DEF	Dolphins	16.06	Dolphins	16.06

Carried by One Guy: Kenyan Drake, 30.40 points (21.2% of positive starter points).

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 107.95 vs. actual 107.95.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	30.24	Lamar Jackson	30.24
WR	T.Y. Hilton	2.10	T.Y. Hilton	2.10
WR	Adam Thielen	14.10	Adam Thielen	14.10
RB	Frank Gore	11.00	Jamaal Williams	3.40
RB	Jamaal Williams	3.40	Frank Gore	11.00
TE	T.J. Hockenson	9.70	T.J. Hockenson	9.70
W/R/T	Cole Beasley	14.50	Cole Beasley	14.50
W/R/T	Phillip Lindsay	12.10	Phillip Lindsay	12.10
K	Rodrigo Blankenship	8.00	Rodrigo Blankenship	8.00
DEF	Panthers	2.81	Panthers	2.81

Carried by One Guy: Lamar Jackson, 30.24 points (28.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 14 – 19, 2020

Martin

152.47

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

86.67

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 19.07 points left. Optimal 171.54 vs. actual 152.47.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	18.48	Cam Newton	18.48
WR	Tyler Boyd	12.90	Tyler Boyd	12.90
WR	A.J. Brown	22.60	A.J. Brown	22.60
RB	Derrick Henry	42.40	Derrick Henry	42.40
RB	Nyheim Miller-Hines	8.04	Nyheim Miller-Hines	8.04
TE	Tyler Higbee	8.60	Tyler Higbee	8.60
W/R/T	John Brown	0.00	Keelan Cole Sr.	22.62
W/R/T	Keelan Cole Sr.	22.62	J.K. Dobbins	4.90
K	Younghoe Koo	19.00	Younghoe Koo	19.00
DEF	Titans	-2.17	Bears	12.00

Carried by One Guy: Derrick Henry, 42.40 points (27.4% of positive starter points).

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.40 points left. Optimal 97.07 vs. actual 86.67.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ben Roethlisberger	10.98	Ben Roethlisberger	10.98
WR	Allen Robinson	10.30	Allen Robinson	10.30
WR	DeVante Parker	6.50	DeVante Parker	6.50
RB	Mark Ingram II	2.00	Chris Thompson	4.50
RB	Alexander Mattison	4.00	Alexander Mattison	4.00
TE	George Kittle	25.90	George Kittle	25.90
W/R/T	Marvin Jones Jr.	2.80	Randall Cobb	10.70
W/R/T	Jerry Jeudy	5.20	Jerry Jeudy	5.20
K	Stephen Gostkowski	4.00	Stephen Gostkowski	4.00
DEF	Cardinals	14.99	Cardinals	14.99

Carried by One Guy: George Kittle, 25.90 points (29.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 14 – 19, 2020

Miller

121.55

Rank 7; -0.5 luck points

Krajcik

129.58

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 28.50 points left. Optimal 150.05 vs. actual 121.55.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	14.64	Tom Brady	14.64
WR	Jamison Crowder	11.80	Jamison Crowder	11.80
WR	Hollywood Brown	9.70	Chase Claypool	18.10
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	12.00	Ezekiel Elliott	12.00
RB	Jonathan Taylor	15.50	Jonathan Taylor	15.50
TE	Travis Kelce	21.50	Travis Kelce	21.50
W/R/T	Chase Edmonds	3.90	D'Andre Swift	29.30
W/R/T	Chase Claypool	18.10	Adrian Peterson	12.80
K	Zane Gonzalez	7.00	Zane Gonzalez	7.00
DEF	49ers	7.41	49ers	7.41

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Travis Kelce, 21.50 points (17.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Deshaun Watson scored 34.00; zeroing that score creates a win.

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 30.52 points left. Optimal 160.10 vs. actual 129.58.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Deshaun Watson	34.00	Deshaun Watson	34.00
WR	Tyreek Hill	5.50	A.J. Green	17.60
WR	Robbie Chosen	11.70	Robbie Chosen	11.70
RB	Todd Gurley	9.70	Todd Gurley	9.70
RB	Miles Sanders	14.20	Miles Sanders	14.20
TE	Rob Gronkowski	18.80	Rob Gronkowski	18.80
W/R/T	Devonta Freeman	6.70	Devonta Freeman	6.70
W/R/T	Amari Cooper	20.90	Amari Cooper	20.90
K	Robbie Gould	7.00	Robbie Gould	7.00
DEF	Browns	1.08	Buccaneers	19.50

Carried by One Guy: Deshaun Watson, 34.00 points (26.2% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 14 – 19, 2020

Fischer

109.28

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Nevans

110.15

Rank 9; +1.5 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.20 points left. Optimal 120.48 vs. actual 109.28.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	15.08	Josh Allen	15.08
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	4.50	Davante Adams	12.10
WR	Travis Fulgham	19.50	Travis Fulgham	19.50
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	13.10	Aaron Jones Sr.	13.10
RB	Myles Gaskin	16.60	Myles Gaskin	16.60
TE	Dalton Schultz	7.50	Dalton Schultz	7.50
W/R/T	Davante Adams	12.10	Demarcus Robinson	11.90
W/R/T	Demarcus Robinson	11.90	Hayden Hurst	15.70
K	Matt Prater	11.00	Matt Prater	11.00
DEF	Packers	-2.00	Packers	-2.00

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Travis Fulgham, 19.50 points (17.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Brandin Cooks scored 21.80; zeroing that score creates a win.

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.96 points left. Optimal 120.11 vs. actual 110.15.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	20.60	Ryan Tannehill	30.56
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	9.30	DeAndre Hopkins	9.30
WR	Stefon Diggs	16.60	Stefon Diggs	16.60
RB	Kareem Hunt	7.70	Kareem Hunt	7.70
RB	Devin Singletary	5.50	Devin Singletary	5.50
TE	Robert Tonyan	5.50	Robert Tonyan	5.50
W/R/T	Brandin Cooks	21.80	Brandin Cooks	21.80
W/R/T	Darius Slayton	11.80	Darius Slayton	11.80
K	Harrison Butker	7.00	Harrison Butker	7.00
DEF	Chiefs	4.35	Chiefs	4.35

Carried by One Guy: Brandin Cooks, 21.80 points (19.8% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 14 – 19, 2020

Adam

101.69

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

124.59

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.20 points left. Optimal 111.89 vs. actual 101.69.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Gardner Minshew II	18.12	Gardner Minshew II	18.12
WR	Julian Edelman	4.32	JuJu Smith-Schuster	2.60
WR	JuJu Smith-Schuster	2.60	Julian Edelman	4.32
RB	David Montgomery	13.70	David Montgomery	13.70
RB	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	22.90	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	22.90
TE	Eric Ebron	2.90	Eric Ebron	2.90
W/R/T	Mike Gesicki	0.00	Austin Hooper	10.20
W/R/T	DJ Chark	11.50	DJ Chark	11.50
K	Graham Gano	7.00	Graham Gano	7.00
DEF	Steelers	18.65	Steelers	18.65

Carried by One Guy: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, 22.90 points (22.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.60 points left. Optimal 130.19 vs. actual 124.59.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jared Goff	14.92	Jared Goff	14.92
WR	Cooper Kupp	4.20	Deebo Samuel Sr.	18.00
WR	Deebo Samuel Sr.	18.00	Preston Williams	9.80
RB	Raheem Mostert	9.60	Raheem Mostert	9.60
RB	James Robinson	15.30	James Robinson	15.30
TE	Zach Ertz	7.30	Zach Ertz	7.30
W/R/T	Chris Godwin Jr.	9.80	Chris Godwin Jr.	9.80
W/R/T	Tee Higgins	20.70	Tee Higgins	20.70
K	Justin Tucker	16.00	Justin Tucker	16.00
DEF	Patriots	8.77	Patriots	8.77

Carried by One Guy: Tee Higgins, 20.70 points (16.6% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 14 – 19, 2020

Josh

115.10

Rank 8; +0.5 luck points

Kev

100.74

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 21.32 points left. Optimal 136.42 vs. actual 115.10.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	12.32	Matt Ryan	33.64
WR	Kenny Golladay	16.50	Kenny Golladay	16.50
WR	Calvin Ridley	18.90	Calvin Ridley	18.90
RB	David Johnson	13.90	David Johnson	13.90
RB	La'Mical Perine	5.60	La'Mical Perine	5.60
TE	Jimmy Graham	8.40	Jimmy Graham	8.40
W/R/T	Adam Humphries	18.40	Adam Humphries	18.40
W/R/T	Tim Patrick	16.10	Tim Patrick	16.10
K	Mason Crosby	4.00	Mason Crosby	4.00
DEF	Rams	0.98	Rams	0.98

Carried by One Guy: Calvin Ridley, 18.90 points (16.4% of positive starter points).

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.30 points left. Optimal 117.04 vs. actual 100.74.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	18.72	Joe Burrow	18.72
WR	Robert Woods	14.00	Robert Woods	14.00
WR	Michael Gallup	4.30	Breshad Perriman	10.20
RB	James Conner	19.20	James Conner	19.20
RB	Antonio Gibson	9.50	Antonio Gibson	9.50
TE	Evan Engram	5.00	Evan Engram	5.00
W/R/T	Mecole Hardman Jr.	0.70	Darrel Williams	11.10
W/R/T	Darrell Henderson Jr.	9.20	Darrell Henderson Jr.	9.20
K	Jason Sanders	5.00	Jason Sanders	5.00
DEF	Giants	15.12	Giants	15.12

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: James Conner, 19.20 points (19.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Calvin Ridley scored 18.90; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 14 – 19, 2020

Demich

159.48

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

142.60

Rank 4; -3.5 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 159.48 vs. actual 159.48.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ryan Fitzpatrick	16.04	Ryan Fitzpatrick	16.04
WR	Will Fuller V	26.30	Will Fuller V	26.30
WR	CeeDee Lamb	13.42	CeeDee Lamb	13.42
RB	J.D. McKissic	14.40	J.D. McKissic	14.40
RB	Damien Harris	4.30	Damien Harris	4.30
TE	Jonnu Smith	2.30	Jonnu Smith	2.30
W/R/T	Julio Jones	35.70	Julio Jones	35.70
W/R/T	Justin Jefferson	41.60	Justin Jefferson	41.60
K	Dan Bailey	1.00	Dan Bailey	1.00
DEF	Colts	4.42	Colts	4.42

Carried by One Guy: Justin Jefferson, 41.60 points (26.1% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.00 points left. Optimal 147.60 vs. actual 142.60.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	28.92	Kyler Murray	28.92
WR	DJ Moore	14.30	DJ Moore	14.30
WR	Terry McLaurin	14.40	Terry McLaurin	14.40
RB	James White	15.30	James White	15.30
RB	Ronald Jones	28.10	Ronald Jones	28.10
TE	Mark Andrews	4.10	Mark Andrews	4.10
W/R/T	Christian Kirk	22.58	Christian Kirk	22.58
W/R/T	Laviska Shenault Jr.	4.10	Benny Snell Jr.	9.10
K	Greg Zuerlein	4.00	Greg Zuerlein	4.00
DEF	Ravens	6.80	Ravens	6.80

Carried by One Guy: Kyler Murray, 28.92 points (20.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Justin Jefferson scored 41.60; zeroing that score creates a win.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	4–2	3.538	0.0	0.000	1 / 1
Martin	2–4	3.385	-5.5	-0.423	0 / 1
Miller	3–3	3.385	-0.5	-0.038	0 / 1
Demich	5–1	5.000	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1
Krajcik	3–3	3.692	-6.5	-0.500	1 / 2
Big Hut	2–4	2.154	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Niz	2–4	2.615	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Josh	3–3	1.923	+5.0	+0.385	2 / 0
Adam	1–5	1.923	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Fischer	3–3	2.231	+3.5	+0.269	1 / 0
Nevans	6–0	3.731	+3.0	+0.231	2 / 0
Joe Shore	2–4	1.769	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Kev	2–4	1.692	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Horgan	4–2	4.962	-6.0	-0.462	0 / 2

2020 week 6 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Niz lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Krajcik lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

Nevans lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 6