2020 week 10 · Luck Factor

Regular

Nov 10 – 16, 2020

j-mart

94.80

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Nevans

146.58

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.32 points left. Optimal 104.12 vs. actual 94.80.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tua Tagovailoa	14.66	Tua Tagovailoa	14.66
WR	Mike Evans	19.70	Mike Evans	19.70
WR	Tyler Lockett	11.60	Tyler Lockett	11.60
RB	Jerick McKinnon	5.88	Mike Davis	8.40
RB	Mike Davis	8.40	Kalen Ballage	15.20
TE	Darren Waller	6.70	Darren Waller	6.70
W/R/T	Jarvis Landry	5.90	Jarvis Landry	5.90
W/R/T	Kenyan Drake	11.90	Kenyan Drake	11.90
K	Mason Crosby	6.00	Mason Crosby	6.00
DEF	Lions	4.06	Lions	4.06

Carried by One Guy: Mike Evans, 19.70 points (20.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.80 points left. Optimal 156.38 vs. actual 146.58.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ryan Tannehill	10.78	Ryan Tannehill	10.78
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	27.70	DeAndre Hopkins	27.70
WR	Stefon Diggs	25.30	Stefon Diggs	25.30
RB	Duke Johnson	5.40	Duke Johnson	5.40
RB	Kareem Hunt	18.20	Kareem Hunt	18.20
TE	Hunter Henry	13.00	Hunter Henry	13.00
W/R/T	Brandin Cooks	9.90	Darius Slayton	14.30
W/R/T	Darius Slayton	14.30	Brandon Aiyuk	19.70
K	Jason Myers	12.00	Jason Myers	12.00
DEF	Vikings	10.00	Vikings	10.00

Carried by One Guy: DeAndre Hopkins, 27.70 points (18.9% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 10 – 16, 2020

Miller

148.96

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Adam

139.11

Rank 5; -2.5 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 148.96 vs. actual 148.96.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	33.84	Tom Brady	33.84
WR	Diontae Johnson	25.60	Diontae Johnson	25.60
WR	Chase Claypool	21.30	Chase Claypool	21.30
RB	D'Andre Swift	25.90	D'Andre Swift	25.90
RB	Jonathan Taylor	5.70	Jonathan Taylor	5.70
TE	Logan Thomas	10.60	Logan Thomas	10.60
W/R/T	Chase Edmonds	11.48	Chase Edmonds	11.48
W/R/T	Hollywood Brown	3.40	Hollywood Brown	3.40
K	Justin Tucker	4.00	Justin Tucker	4.00
DEF	49ers	7.14	49ers	7.14

Carried by One Guy: Tom Brady, 33.84 points (22.7% of positive starter points).

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.60 points left. Optimal 139.71 vs. actual 139.11.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ben Roethlisberger	31.32	Ben Roethlisberger	31.32
WR	Corey Davis	11.70	Corey Davis	11.70
WR	Michael Pittman Jr.	21.20	Michael Pittman Jr.	21.20
RB	Ryan Nall	2.80	Ryan Nall	2.80
RB	Salvon Ahmed	16.00	Salvon Ahmed	16.00
TE	Eric Ebron	5.80	Eric Ebron	5.80
W/R/T	Emmanuel Sanders	1.50	JuJu Smith-Schuster	22.70
W/R/T	JuJu Smith-Schuster	22.70	Joshua Kelley	2.10
K	Daniel Carlson	13.00	Daniel Carlson	13.00
DEF	Steelers	13.09	Steelers	13.09

Carried by One Guy: Ben Roethlisberger, 31.32 points (22.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Tom Brady scored 33.84; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 10 – 16, 2020

Demich

105.57

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Josh

112.30

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.40 points left. Optimal 115.97 vs. actual 105.57.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Teddy Bridgewater	19.04	Teddy Bridgewater	19.04
WR	Will Fuller V	9.06	Will Fuller V	9.06
WR	DK Metcalf	4.80	Justin Jefferson	23.50
RB	Melvin Gordon III	4.60	Latavius Murray	5.70
RB	Nick Chubb	20.60	Nick Chubb	20.60
TE	Jonnu Smith	9.50	Jonnu Smith	9.50
W/R/T	J.D. McKissic	17.90	J.D. McKissic	17.90
W/R/T	Justin Jefferson	23.50	Damien Harris	14.10
K	Ka'imi Fairbairn	1.00	Ka'imi Fairbairn	1.00
DEF	Broncos	-4.43	Broncos	-4.43

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Justin Jefferson, 23.50 points (21.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Josh Jacobs scored 31.60; zeroing that score creates a win.

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.60 points left. Optimal 130.90 vs. actual 112.30.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Herbert	20.48	Justin Herbert	20.48
WR	Danny Amendola	4.12	Tim Patrick	10.10
WR	Tim Patrick	10.10	Danny Amendola	4.12
RB	Josh Jacobs	31.60	Devontae Booker	21.30
RB	Zack Moss	2.70	Josh Jacobs	31.60
TE	Jimmy Graham	0.00	Jimmy Graham	0.00
W/R/T	Giovani Bernard	8.70	Giovani Bernard	8.70
W/R/T	Josh Reynolds	17.40	Josh Reynolds	17.40
K	Rodrigo Blankenship	10.00	Rodrigo Blankenship	10.00
DEF	Packers	7.20	Packers	7.20

Carried by One Guy: Josh Jacobs, 31.60 points (28.1% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 10 – 16, 2020

Krajcik

87.82

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Niz

145.82

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.18 points left. Optimal 106.00 vs. actual 87.82.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Deshaun Watson	14.12	Aaron Rodgers	27.40
WR	A.J. Green	0.00	A.J. Green	0.00
WR	Robbie Chosen	6.10	Robbie Chosen	6.10
RB	Rex Burkhead	22.60	Rex Burkhead	22.60
RB	Miles Sanders	13.50	Miles Sanders	13.50
TE	Rob Gronkowski	13.10	Rob Gronkowski	13.10
W/R/T	Alshon Jeffery	0.00	Mo Alie-Cox	4.90
W/R/T	Hunter Renfrow	5.40	Hunter Renfrow	5.40
K	Robbie Gould	8.00	Robbie Gould	8.00
DEF	Buccaneers	5.00	Buccaneers	5.00

Carried by One Guy: Rex Burkhead, 22.60 points (25.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.50 points left. Optimal 156.32 vs. actual 145.82.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	21.46	Lamar Jackson	21.46
WR	Adam Thielen	20.30	Adam Thielen	20.30
WR	Sterling Shepard	10.70	Sterling Shepard	10.70
RB	Alvin Kamara	34.80	Alvin Kamara	34.80
RB	Phillip Lindsay	0.20	Jamaal Williams	8.50
TE	T.J. Hockenson	3.30	T.J. Hockenson	3.30
W/R/T	Cole Beasley	29.90	T.Y. Hilton	8.00
W/R/T	Mike Williams	5.80	Cole Beasley	29.90
K	Ryan Succop	13.00	Ryan Succop	13.00
DEF	Seahawks	6.36	Seahawks	6.36

Carried by One Guy: Alvin Kamara, 34.80 points (23.9% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 10 – 16, 2020

Martin

96.20

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

110.03

Rank 8; +0.5 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 36.72 points left. Optimal 132.92 vs. actual 96.20.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	6.94	Cam Newton	16.82
WR	Keenan Allen	12.90	Keenan Allen	12.90
WR	A.J. Brown	3.10	Donovan Peoples-Jones	3.84
RB	Derrick Henry	13.90	Derrick Henry	13.90
RB	J.K. Dobbins	2.40	Nyheim Miller-Hines	28.50
TE	Noah Fant	4.80	Noah Fant	4.80
W/R/T	John Brown	13.20	John Brown	13.20
W/R/T	Tyler Boyd	10.10	Tyler Boyd	10.10
K	Jason Sanders	14.00	Jason Sanders	14.00
DEF	Bears	14.86	Bears	14.86

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Bears, 14.86 points (15.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Josh Allen scored 27.36; zeroing that score creates a win.

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.00 points left. Optimal 112.03 vs. actual 110.03.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	27.36	Josh Allen	27.36
WR	Davante Adams	18.60	Davante Adams	18.60
WR	Travis Fulgham	1.80	DJ Chark	9.60
RB	Leonard Fournette	5.00	Leonard Fournette	5.00
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	14.50	Aaron Jones Sr.	14.50
TE	Dallas Goedert	7.30	Dallas Goedert	7.30
W/R/T	DJ Chark	9.60	Henry Ruggs III	6.52
W/R/T	Henry Ruggs III	6.52	Cam Akers	3.80
K	Matt Prater	16.00	Matt Prater	16.00
DEF	Eagles	3.35	Eagles	3.35

Carried by One Guy: Josh Allen, 27.36 points (24.9% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 10 – 16, 2020

Joe Shore

92.52

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Kev

121.84

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 23.86 points left. Optimal 116.38 vs. actual 92.52.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Baker Mayfield	5.38	Baker Mayfield	5.38
WR	Michael Thomas	4.70	Chris Godwin Jr.	15.20
WR	Chris Godwin Jr.	15.20	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	26.90
RB	Travis Homer	6.64	Gus Edwards	8.30
RB	James Robinson	15.20	James Robinson	15.20
TE	Austin Hooper	2.10	Austin Hooper	2.10
W/R/T	Cooper Kupp	10.00	Cooper Kupp	10.00
W/R/T	Tee Higgins	24.50	Tee Higgins	24.50
K	Brandon McManus	8.00	Brandon McManus	8.00
DEF	Chargers	0.80	Chargers	0.80

Carried by One Guy: Tee Higgins, 24.50 points (26.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.04 points left. Optimal 122.88 vs. actual 121.84.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jared Goff	12.48	Joe Burrow	12.52
WR	Robert Woods	8.60	Robert Woods	8.60
WR	Jakobi Meyers	15.86	Jakobi Meyers	15.86
RB	James Conner	6.80	Darrell Henderson Jr.	10.30
RB	Antonio Gibson	22.50	Antonio Gibson	22.50
TE	Evan Engram	3.50	Evan Engram	3.50
W/R/T	Marvin Jones Jr.	23.60	Marvin Jones Jr.	23.60
W/R/T	Darrell Henderson Jr.	10.30	Rashard Higgins	7.80
K	Michael Badgley	3.00	Michael Badgley	3.00
DEF	Saints	15.20	Saints	15.20

Carried by One Guy: Marvin Jones Jr., 23.60 points (19.4% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 10 – 16, 2020

Big Hut

75.54

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

153.84

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.20 points left. Optimal 90.74 vs. actual 75.54.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	9.92	Russell Wilson	9.92
WR	Allen Robinson	10.30	Allen Robinson	10.30
WR	DeVante Parker	5.10	DeVante Parker	5.10
RB	Malcolm Brown	19.10	Malcolm Brown	19.10
RB	Jordan Wilkins	2.80	Boston Scott	15.10
TE	Gerald Everett	4.70	Gerald Everett	4.70
W/R/T	Curtis Samuel	4.20	Randall Cobb	7.10
W/R/T	Jerry Jeudy	10.80	Jerry Jeudy	10.80
K	Wil Lutz	9.00	Wil Lutz	9.00
DEF	Titans	-0.38	Titans	-0.38

Carried by One Guy: Malcolm Brown, 19.10 points (25.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 19.80 points left. Optimal 173.64 vs. actual 153.84.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	29.90	Kyler Murray	29.90
WR	Christian Kirk	7.00	Antonio Brown	13.60
WR	Terry McLaurin	17.20	Terry McLaurin	17.20
RB	Dalvin Cook	15.20	Dalvin Cook	15.20
RB	Wayne Gallman	19.00	Wayne Gallman	19.00
TE	Mark Andrews	13.10	Mark Andrews	13.10
W/R/T	Antonio Brown	13.60	DJ Moore	19.60
W/R/T	DJ Moore	19.60	Ronald Jones	26.80
K	Tyler Bass	18.00	Tyler Bass	18.00
DEF	Ravens	1.24	Ravens	1.24

Carried by One Guy: Kyler Murray, 29.90 points (19.4% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	4–6	4.923	-2.0	-0.154	1 / 3
Martin	4–6	5.462	-5.5	-0.423	0 / 1
Miller	5–5	4.923	+2.0	+0.154	1 / 1
Demich	7–3	6.846	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1
Krajcik	4–6	5.231	-6.5	-0.500	1 / 2
Big Hut	4–6	4.231	-1.5	-0.115	0 / 1
Niz	5–5	4.846	+0.5	+0.038	1 / 0
Josh	5–5	3.538	+5.0	+0.385	2 / 0
Adam	2–8	2.923	+1.0	+0.077	1 / 1
Fischer	5–5	4.692	+0.5	+0.038	2 / 1
Nevans	8–2	6.269	+3.0	+0.231	2 / 0
Joe Shore	3–7	3.692	-0.5	-0.038	0 / 1
Kev	6–4	4.077	+4.5	+0.346	1 / 0
Horgan	8–2	8.346	-5.5	-0.423	1 / 2

2020 week 10 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Nevans lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Niz lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Joe Shore lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 10