2020 week 1 · Luck Factor

Regular

Sep 10 – 14, 2020

j-mart

126.79

Rank 10; +2.5 luck points

Martin

109.50

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.62 points left. Optimal 134.41 vs. actual 126.79.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Carson Wentz	13.00	Carson Wentz	13.00
WR	Tyler Lockett	17.20	Tyler Lockett	17.20
WR	Anthony Miller	17.60	Anthony Miller	17.60
RB	Kenyan Drake	14.50	Jerick McKinnon	13.72
RB	Joe Mixon	6.10	Kenyan Drake	14.50
TE	Darren Waller	10.50	Darren Waller	10.50
W/R/T	Mike Evans	7.20	Mike Evans	7.20
W/R/T	Jarvis Landry	11.10	Jarvis Landry	11.10
K	Matt Prater	11.00	Matt Prater	11.00
DEF	Saints	18.59	Saints	18.59

Carried by One Guy: Saints, 18.59 points (14.7% of positive starter points).

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 39.08 points left. Optimal 148.58 vs. actual 109.50.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	25.70	Cam Newton	25.70
WR	Keenan Allen	7.70	John Brown	19.00
WR	A.J. Brown	8.90	A.J. Brown	8.90
RB	Derrick Henry	18.10	Derrick Henry	18.10
RB	Austin Ekeler	9.70	Austin Ekeler	9.70
TE	Tyler Higbee	7.00	Noah Fant	19.10
W/R/T	John Brown	19.00	Nyheim Miller-Hines	27.78
W/R/T	Tyler Boyd	7.30	J.K. Dobbins	14.20
K	Ka'imi Fairbairn	2.00	Ka'imi Fairbairn	2.00
DEF	Bears	4.10	Bears	4.10

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Cam Newton, 25.70 points (23.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Saints scored 18.59; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 10 – 14, 2020

Niz

156.49

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Adam

133.48

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.20 points left. Optimal 162.69 vs. actual 156.49.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	27.50	Lamar Jackson	27.50
WR	T.Y. Hilton	9.30	Adam Thielen	33.00
WR	Adam Thielen	33.00	Mike Williams	10.90
RB	Alvin Kamara	23.70	Giovani Bernard	6.80
RB	Matt Breida	2.20	Alvin Kamara	23.70
TE	T.J. Hockenson	16.60	T.J. Hockenson	16.60
W/R/T	Sammy Watkins	21.50	Sammy Watkins	21.50
W/R/T	Sterling Shepard	10.70	Sterling Shepard	10.70
K	Brandon McManus	2.00	Brandon McManus	2.00
DEF	Bills	9.99	Bills	9.99

Carried by One Guy: Adam Thielen, 33.00 points (21.1% of positive starter points).

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 29.20 points left. Optimal 162.68 vs. actual 133.48.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Gardner Minshew II	20.82	Gardner Minshew II	20.82
WR	JuJu Smith-Schuster	24.90	JuJu Smith-Schuster	24.90
WR	DJ Chark	11.50	DJ Chark	11.50
RB	Le'Veon Bell	6.60	Malcolm Brown	26.00
RB	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	21.80	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	21.80
TE	Mike Gesicki	6.00	Mike Gesicki	6.00
W/R/T	Julian Edelman	13.00	Allen Lazard	18.20
W/R/T	David Montgomery	8.40	Julian Edelman	13.00
K	Daniel Carlson	11.00	Daniel Carlson	11.00
DEF	Steelers	9.46	Steelers	9.46

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: JuJu Smith-Schuster, 24.90 points (18.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Adam Thielen scored 33.00; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 10 – 14, 2020

Big Hut

134.11

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

132.48

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.70 points left. Optimal 143.81 vs. actual 134.11.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	33.78	Russell Wilson	33.78
WR	Marvin Jones Jr.	9.50	Marvin Jones Jr.	9.50
WR	Allen Robinson	12.30	Allen Robinson	12.30
RB	Mark Ingram II	2.90	Christian McCaffrey	28.50
RB	Christian McCaffrey	28.50	Alexander Mattison	12.00
TE	George Kittle	9.30	George Kittle	9.30
W/R/T	DeVante Parker	8.70	Curtis Samuel	9.30
W/R/T	Jerry Jeudy	9.60	Jerry Jeudy	9.60
K	Wil Lutz	8.00	Wil Lutz	8.00
DEF	Chargers	11.53	Chargers	11.53

Carried by One Guy: Russell Wilson, 33.78 points (25.2% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.00 points left. Optimal 140.48 vs. actual 132.48.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	30.18	Josh Allen	30.18
WR	Randall Cobb	4.30	Davante Adams	43.60
WR	Davante Adams	43.60	James Washington	11.40
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	17.60	Aaron Jones Sr.	17.60
RB	Cam Akers	5.30	Cam Akers	5.30
TE	Hayden Hurst	6.80	Hayden Hurst	6.80
W/R/T	Odell Beckham Jr.	5.20	Preston Williams	6.10
W/R/T	Henry Ruggs III	9.60	Henry Ruggs III	9.60
K	Ryan Succop	5.00	Ryan Succop	5.00
DEF	Colts	4.90	Colts	4.90

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Davante Adams, 43.60 points (32.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Russell Wilson scored 33.78; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 10 – 14, 2020

Krajcik

122.06

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Nevans

152.52

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.74 points left. Optimal 138.80 vs. actual 122.06.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Deshaun Watson	20.82	Aaron Rodgers	32.76
WR	A.J. Green	10.10	A.J. Green	10.10
WR	Tyreek Hill	15.60	Tyreek Hill	15.60
RB	Todd Gurley	13.70	Todd Gurley	13.70
RB	Marlon Mack	8.60	Marlon Mack	8.60
TE	Rob Gronkowski	3.10	Jack Doyle	7.90
W/R/T	Amari Cooper	18.10	Amari Cooper	18.10
W/R/T	Robbie Chosen	27.40	Robbie Chosen	27.40
K	Robbie Gould	9.00	Robbie Gould	9.00
DEF	Vikings	-4.36	Vikings	-4.36

Carried by One Guy: Robbie Chosen, 27.40 points (21.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: DeAndre Hopkins scored 31.10; zeroing that score creates a win.

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.60 points left. Optimal 168.12 vs. actual 152.52.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	20.44	Patrick Mahomes	20.44
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	31.10	DeAndre Hopkins	31.10
WR	Stefon Diggs	16.60	Stefon Diggs	16.60
RB	Kareem Hunt	12.10	Kareem Hunt	12.10
RB	Devin Singletary	10.30	Devin Singletary	10.30
TE	Hunter Henry	12.30	Hunter Henry	12.30
W/R/T	Brandin Cooks	4.00	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	19.60
W/R/T	Darius Slayton	30.20	Darius Slayton	30.20
K	Harrison Butker	7.00	Harrison Butker	7.00
DEF	Chiefs	8.48	Chiefs	8.48

Carried by One Guy: DeAndre Hopkins, 31.10 points (20.4% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 10 – 14, 2020

Demich

138.28

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

100.28

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.70 points left. Optimal 140.98 vs. actual 138.28.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	17.64	Dak Prescott	17.64
WR	Julio Jones	26.70	Julio Jones	26.70
WR	Will Fuller V	21.20	Will Fuller V	21.20
RB	Melvin Gordon III	15.60	Melvin Gordon III	15.60
RB	Nick Chubb	5.60	Nick Chubb	5.60
TE	Jonnu Smith	13.60	Jonnu Smith	13.60
W/R/T	DK Metcalf	19.50	Parris Campbell	14.00
W/R/T	CeeDee Lamb	11.30	DK Metcalf	19.50
K	Dan Bailey	4.00	Dan Bailey	4.00
DEF	Eagles	3.14	Eagles	3.14

Carried by One Guy: Julio Jones, 26.70 points (19.3% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.00 points left. Optimal 117.28 vs. actual 100.28.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	14.40	Drew Brees	14.40
WR	Michael Thomas	4.70	Cooper Kupp	8.00
WR	Chris Godwin Jr.	13.90	Chris Godwin Jr.	13.90
RB	Chris Thompson	2.60	Raheem Mostert	25.10
RB	Raheem Mostert	25.10	Sony Michel	9.70
TE	Zach Ertz	10.80	Zach Ertz	10.80
W/R/T	Cooper Kupp	8.00	Joshua Kelley	12.00
W/R/T	Boston Scott	7.40	James Robinson	10.00
K	Justin Tucker	9.00	Justin Tucker	9.00
DEF	Titans	4.38	Titans	4.38

Carried by One Guy: Raheem Mostert, 25.10 points (25.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 10 – 14, 2020

Miller

152.67

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Kev

96.56

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.18 points left. Optimal 164.85 vs. actual 152.67.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	20.46	Tom Brady	20.46
WR	Hollywood Brown	17.10	Jamison Crowder	26.50
WR	Diontae Johnson	9.96	Hollywood Brown	17.10
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	27.70	Ezekiel Elliott	27.70
RB	Jonathan Taylor	14.90	Jonathan Taylor	14.90
TE	Travis Kelce	17.00	Travis Kelce	17.00
W/R/T	DeSean Jackson	6.60	Chase Edmonds	14.34
W/R/T	Jamison Crowder	26.50	Adrian Peterson	14.40
K	Zane Gonzalez	8.00	Zane Gonzalez	8.00
DEF	49ers	4.45	49ers	4.45

Carried by One Guy: Ezekiel Elliott, 27.70 points (18.1% of positive starter points).

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.64 points left. Optimal 101.20 vs. actual 96.56.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Daniel Jones	17.36	Daniel Jones	17.36
WR	Robert Woods	19.90	Robert Woods	19.90
WR	Michael Gallup	8.00	Michael Gallup	8.00
RB	James Conner	3.70	Tarik Cohen	6.70
RB	Saquon Barkley	12.60	Saquon Barkley	12.60
TE	Evan Engram	2.90	Evan Engram	2.90
W/R/T	Tarik Cohen	6.70	Steven Sims	8.34
W/R/T	Antonio Gibson	6.40	Antonio Gibson	6.40
K	Chris Boswell	8.00	Chris Boswell	8.00
DEF	Patriots	11.00	Patriots	11.00

Carried by One Guy: Robert Woods, 19.90 points (20.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 10 – 14, 2020

Josh

170.60

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

146.26

Rank 5; -2.5 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 170.60 vs. actual 170.60.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	25.90	Matt Ryan	25.90
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	7.40	Calvin Ridley	35.90
WR	Calvin Ridley	35.90	Larry Fitzgerald	7.40
RB	David Johnson	19.90	David Johnson	19.90
RB	Josh Jacobs	35.90	Josh Jacobs	35.90
TE	Jared Cook	13.00	Jared Cook	13.00
W/R/T	Chris Herndon	7.70	Chris Herndon	7.70
W/R/T	Zack Moss	11.70	Zack Moss	11.70
K	Younghoe Koo	8.00	Younghoe Koo	8.00
DEF	Rams	5.20	Rams	5.20

Carried by One Guy: Calvin Ridley, 35.90 points (21.0% of positive starter points); Josh Jacobs, 35.90 points (21.0% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.44 points left. Optimal 164.70 vs. actual 146.26.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	26.30	Kyler Murray	26.30
WR	DJ Moore	9.40	Terry McLaurin	11.10
WR	Terry McLaurin	11.10	Laviska Shenault Jr.	13.70
RB	Dalvin Cook	21.80	Dalvin Cook	21.80
RB	Chris Carson	24.60	Chris Carson	24.60
TE	Mark Andrews	22.80	Mark Andrews	22.80
W/R/T	James White	8.20	Ronald Jones	10.20
W/R/T	Christian Kirk	1.16	Benny Snell Jr.	13.30
K	Greg Zuerlein	5.00	Greg Zuerlein	5.00
DEF	Ravens	15.90	Ravens	15.90

Carried by One Guy: Kyler Murray, 26.30 points (18.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Calvin Ridley scored 35.90; zeroing that score creates a win; Josh Jacobs scored 35.90; zeroing that score creates a win.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	1–0	0.308	+2.5	+0.192	1 / 0
Martin	0–1	0.154	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Miller	1–0	0.846	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Demich	1–0	0.615	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Krajcik	0–1	0.231	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Big Hut	1–0	0.538	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Niz	1–0	0.923	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Josh	1–0	1.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Adam	0–1	0.462	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Fischer	0–1	0.385	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Nevans	1–0	0.769	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Joe Shore	0–1	0.077	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Kev	0–1	0.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Horgan	0–1	0.692	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1

2020 week 1 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Niz lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Nevans lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 1