2020 week 11 · Luck Factor

Regular

Nov 17 – 23, 2020

j-mart

153.12

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

135.74

Rank 5; -2.5 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.20 points left. Optimal 155.32 vs. actual 153.12.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kirk Cousins	24.96	Kirk Cousins	24.96
WR	Mike Evans	15.90	Mike Evans	15.90
WR	Tyler Lockett	21.70	Tyler Lockett	21.70
RB	Mike Davis	15.90	Mike Davis	15.90
RB	Kenyan Drake	16.00	Kenyan Drake	16.00
TE	Darren Waller	21.80	Darren Waller	21.80
W/R/T	Jarvis Landry	4.60	Dez Bryant	6.80
W/R/T	Kalen Ballage	14.10	Kalen Ballage	14.10
K	Chris Boswell	11.00	Chris Boswell	11.00
DEF	Lions	7.16	Lions	7.16

Carried by One Guy: Kirk Cousins, 24.96 points (16.3% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.30 points left. Optimal 138.04 vs. actual 135.74.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Taysom Hill	24.22	Taysom Hill	24.22
WR	Michael Thomas	21.40	Michael Thomas	21.40
WR	Chris Godwin Jr.	18.30	Chris Godwin Jr.	18.30
RB	Darrell Henderson Jr.	2.90	DeeJay Dallas	5.20
RB	James Robinson	11.40	James Robinson	11.40
TE	Austin Hooper	6.30	Austin Hooper	6.30
W/R/T	Cooper Kupp	27.50	Cooper Kupp	27.50
W/R/T	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	6.50	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	6.50
K	Brandon McManus	8.00	Brandon McManus	8.00
DEF	Chargers	9.22	Chargers	9.22

Carried by One Guy: Cooper Kupp, 27.50 points (20.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Kirk Cousins scored 24.96; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 17 – 23, 2020

Demich

135.21

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Adam

134.87

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 20.16 points left. Optimal 155.37 vs. actual 135.21.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Derek Carr	21.60	Derek Carr	21.60
WR	Will Fuller V	14.00	Will Fuller V	14.00
WR	DK Metcalf	13.60	DK Metcalf	13.60
RB	J.D. McKissic	9.90	Melvin Gordon III	18.40
RB	Nick Chubb	13.40	Nick Chubb	13.40
TE	Jonnu Smith	12.00	Jonnu Smith	12.00
W/R/T	Julio Jones	5.90	CeeDee Lamb	17.56
W/R/T	Justin Jefferson	17.60	Justin Jefferson	17.60
K	Ka'imi Fairbairn	10.00	Ka'imi Fairbairn	10.00
DEF	Panthers	17.21	Panthers	17.21

Carried by One Guy: Derek Carr, 21.60 points (16.0% of positive starter points).

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.00 points left. Optimal 152.87 vs. actual 134.87.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ben Roethlisberger	16.68	Ben Roethlisberger	16.68
WR	Corey Davis	18.30	Corey Davis	18.30
WR	Michael Pittman Jr.	15.60	Michael Pittman Jr.	15.60
RB	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	20.70	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	20.70
RB	Salvon Ahmed	12.40	Salvon Ahmed	12.40
TE	Eric Ebron	13.60	Eric Ebron	13.60
W/R/T	JuJu Smith-Schuster	5.90	Emmanuel Sanders	10.60
W/R/T	KJ Hamler	7.50	Nelson Agholor	20.80
K	Daniel Carlson	7.00	Daniel Carlson	7.00
DEF	Steelers	17.19	Steelers	17.19

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, 20.70 points (15.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Derek Carr scored 21.60; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 17 – 23, 2020

Krajcik

123.19

Rank 9; +1.5 luck points

Josh

119.18

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.90 points left. Optimal 134.09 vs. actual 123.19.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Deshaun Watson	33.36	Deshaun Watson	33.36
WR	Tyreek Hill	29.00	Tyreek Hill	29.00
WR	Robbie Chosen	11.60	Robbie Chosen	11.60
RB	Todd Gurley	3.90	Todd Gurley	3.90
RB	Miles Sanders	9.10	Miles Sanders	9.10
TE	Rob Gronkowski	4.50	Rob Gronkowski	4.50
W/R/T	Rex Burkhead	3.20	A.J. Green	14.10
W/R/T	Amari Cooper	14.10	Amari Cooper	14.10
K	Jason Sanders	10.00	Jason Sanders	10.00
DEF	Buccaneers	4.43	Buccaneers	4.43

Carried by One Guy: Deshaun Watson, 33.36 points (27.1% of positive starter points).

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 119.18 vs. actual 119.18.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Herbert	29.74	Justin Herbert	29.74
WR	Tim Patrick	18.90	Tim Patrick	18.90
WR	Calvin Ridley	14.00	Calvin Ridley	14.00
RB	Giovani Bernard	9.50	Giovani Bernard	9.50
RB	Josh Jacobs	13.40	Josh Jacobs	13.40
TE	Jared Cook	1.60	Jared Cook	1.60
W/R/T	Josh Reynolds	6.20	Josh Reynolds	6.20
W/R/T	Kerryon Johnson	5.80	Kerryon Johnson	5.80
K	Rodrigo Blankenship	15.00	Rodrigo Blankenship	15.00
DEF	Rams	5.04	Rams	5.04

Carried by One Guy: Justin Herbert, 29.74 points (25.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Deshaun Watson scored 33.36; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 17 – 23, 2020

Big Hut

95.80

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Niz

112.23

Rank 12; +4.5 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.10 points left. Optimal 104.90 vs. actual 95.80.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	20.08	Russell Wilson	20.08
WR	Randall Cobb	8.70	Randall Cobb	8.70
WR	DeVante Parker	18.10	DeVante Parker	18.10
RB	Mark Ingram II	0.20	Jordan Wilkins	4.60
RB	Malcolm Brown	3.80	Boston Scott	8.50
TE	Greg Olsen	4.00	Greg Olsen	4.00
W/R/T	Curtis Samuel	21.40	Curtis Samuel	21.40
W/R/T	Jerry Jeudy	6.70	Jerry Jeudy	6.70
K	Wil Lutz	5.00	Wil Lutz	5.00
DEF	Colts	7.82	Colts	7.82

Carried by One Guy: Curtis Samuel, 21.40 points (22.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Adam Thielen scored 34.30; zeroing that score creates a win.

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.68 points left. Optimal 127.91 vs. actual 112.23.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	16.54	Lamar Jackson	16.54
WR	Adam Thielen	34.30	Adam Thielen	34.30
WR	Willie Snead IV	5.30	Mike Williams	17.20
RB	Alvin Kamara	10.50	Alvin Kamara	10.50
RB	Phillip Lindsay	8.20	Phillip Lindsay	8.20
TE	T.J. Hockenson	10.80	T.J. Hockenson	10.80
W/R/T	Mike Williams	17.20	Jamaal Williams	8.60
W/R/T	David Moore	2.72	Frank Gore	15.10
K	Ryan Succop	6.00	Ryan Succop	6.00
DEF	Chiefs	0.67	Chiefs	0.67

Carried by One Guy: Adam Thielen, 34.30 points (30.6% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 17 – 23, 2020

Miller

144.78

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

112.54

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 25.12 points left. Optimal 169.90 vs. actual 144.78.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	12.64	Tom Brady	12.64
WR	Diontae Johnson	25.10	Diontae Johnson	25.10
WR	Chase Claypool	15.90	Chase Claypool	15.90
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	21.40	Ezekiel Elliott	21.40
RB	Chase Edmonds	17.90	Chase Edmonds	17.90
TE	Travis Kelce	28.86	Travis Kelce	28.86
W/R/T	Jamison Crowder	2.60	Tony Pollard	12.32
W/R/T	Hollywood Brown	0.00	Jonathan Taylor	15.40
K	Justin Tucker	8.00	Justin Tucker	8.00
DEF	Commanders	12.38	Commanders	12.38

Carried by One Guy: Travis Kelce, 28.86 points (19.9% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 19.40 points left. Optimal 131.94 vs. actual 112.54.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tua Tagovailoa	7.32	Tua Tagovailoa	7.32
WR	DJ Chark	8.10	Davante Adams	25.60
WR	Travis Fulgham	1.80	DJ Chark	8.10
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	17.10	Aaron Jones Sr.	17.10
RB	La'Mical Perine	9.30	La'Mical Perine	9.30
TE	Dallas Goedert	18.70	Dallas Goedert	18.70
W/R/T	Davante Adams	25.60	James White	14.30
W/R/T	Henry Ruggs III	2.70	Leonard Fournette	9.60
K	Matt Prater	0.00	Matt Prater	0.00
DEF	Browns	21.92	Browns	21.92

Carried by One Guy: Davante Adams, 25.60 points (22.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Nov 17 – 23, 2020

Martin

147.35

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Nevans

110.35

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.88 points left. Optimal 162.23 vs. actual 147.35.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	21.20	Cam Newton	21.20
WR	Keenan Allen	36.50	Keenan Allen	36.50
WR	A.J. Brown	16.20	A.J. Brown	16.20
RB	Derrick Henry	22.20	Derrick Henry	22.20
RB	Nyheim Miller-Hines	8.48	Nyheim Miller-Hines	8.48
TE	Noah Fant	9.50	Noah Fant	9.50
W/R/T	Tyler Boyd	17.50	Tyler Boyd	17.50
W/R/T	Jakeem Grant	3.62	J.K. Dobbins	18.50
K	Younghoe Koo	12.00	Younghoe Koo	12.00
DEF	Patriots	0.15	Patriots	0.15

Carried by One Guy: Keenan Allen, 36.50 points (24.8% of positive starter points).

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.00 points left. Optimal 112.35 vs. actual 110.35.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	23.52	Patrick Mahomes	23.52
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	10.10	DeAndre Hopkins	10.10
WR	Brandin Cooks	12.50	Brandin Cooks	12.50
RB	Duke Johnson	6.50	Duke Johnson	6.50
RB	Kareem Hunt	9.10	Kareem Hunt	9.10
TE	Hunter Henry	14.80	Hunter Henry	14.80
W/R/T	Robert Tonyan	15.40	Robert Tonyan	15.40
W/R/T	Jalen Reagor	9.20	Jalen Reagor	9.20
K	Harrison Butker	5.00	Jason Myers	7.00
DEF	Vikings	4.23	Vikings	4.23

Carried by One Guy: Patrick Mahomes, 23.52 points (21.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Nov 17 – 23, 2020

Kev

135.03

Rank 7; -0.5 luck points

Horgan

161.58

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.30 points left. Optimal 144.33 vs. actual 135.03.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	11.32	Joe Burrow	11.32
WR	Robert Woods	32.60	Robert Woods	32.60
WR	Jakobi Meyers	6.80	Breshad Perriman	13.40
RB	James Conner	12.90	James Conner	12.90
RB	Antonio Gibson	17.40	Antonio Gibson	17.40
TE	Dalton Schultz	12.50	Dalton Schultz	12.50
W/R/T	Marvin Jones Jr.	9.10	Marvin Jones Jr.	9.10
W/R/T	Tee Higgins	5.60	Mike Gesicki	8.30
K	Michael Badgley	10.00	Michael Badgley	10.00
DEF	Saints	16.81	Saints	16.81

Carried by One Guy: Robert Woods, 32.60 points (24.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Dalvin Cook scored 27.00; zeroing that score creates a win.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 161.58 vs. actual 161.58.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	20.26	Kyler Murray	20.26
WR	Christian Kirk	9.16	Christian Kirk	9.16
WR	Terry McLaurin	13.40	Terry McLaurin	13.40
RB	Carlos Hyde	17.50	Carlos Hyde	17.50
RB	Dalvin Cook	27.00	Dalvin Cook	27.00
TE	Mark Andrews	20.60	Mark Andrews	20.60
W/R/T	Antonio Brown	13.80	Antonio Brown	13.80
W/R/T	DJ Moore	23.80	DJ Moore	23.80
K	Joey Slye	10.00	Joey Slye	10.00
DEF	Dolphins	6.06	Dolphins	6.06

Carried by One Guy: Dalvin Cook, 27.00 points (16.7% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	5–6	5.846	-2.0	-0.154	1 / 3
Martin	5–6	6.308	-5.5	-0.423	0 / 1
Miller	6–5	5.692	+2.0	+0.154	1 / 1
Demich	8–3	7.462	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1
Krajcik	5–6	5.615	-5.0	-0.385	2 / 2
Big Hut	4–7	4.231	-1.5	-0.115	0 / 1
Niz	6–5	5.000	+5.0	+0.385	2 / 0
Josh	5–6	3.846	+5.0	+0.385	2 / 0
Adam	2–9	3.385	+1.0	+0.077	1 / 1
Fischer	5–6	4.923	+0.5	+0.038	2 / 1
Nevans	8–3	6.346	+3.0	+0.231	2 / 0
Joe Shore	3–8	4.385	-3.0	-0.231	0 / 2
Kev	6–5	4.615	+4.0	+0.308	1 / 1
Horgan	9–2	9.346	-5.5	-0.423	1 / 2

2020 week 11 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Niz lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Nevans lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 11