2020 week 4 · Luck Factor

Regular

Sep 29 – Oct 5, 2020

j-mart

162.10

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik

148.62

Rank 4; -3.5 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 19.20 points left. Optimal 181.30 vs. actual 162.10.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	15.54	Drew Brees	15.54
WR	Mike Evans	27.20	Mike Evans	27.20
WR	Tyler Lockett	5.90	Tyler Lockett	5.90
RB	Mike Davis	22.10	Jerick McKinnon	22.70
RB	Kenyan Drake	3.50	Mike Davis	22.10
TE	Darren Waller	15.80	Darren Waller	15.80
W/R/T	Jarvis Landry	15.28	Jarvis Landry	15.28
W/R/T	Joe Mixon	44.10	Joe Mixon	44.10
K	Mason Crosby	6.00	Mason Crosby	6.00
DEF	Broncos	6.68	Broncos	6.68

Carried by One Guy: Joe Mixon, 44.10 points (27.2% of positive starter points).

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.50 points left. Optimal 158.12 vs. actual 148.62.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	31.58	Aaron Rodgers	31.58
WR	A.J. Green	1.30	Amari Cooper	35.40
WR	Robbie Chosen	17.90	Robbie Chosen	17.90
RB	Todd Gurley	19.30	Todd Gurley	19.30
RB	Miles Sanders	9.60	Miles Sanders	9.60
TE	Mo Alie-Cox	8.30	Mo Alie-Cox	8.30
W/R/T	Amari Cooper	35.40	Devonta Freeman	10.80
W/R/T	Tyreek Hill	16.40	Tyreek Hill	16.40
K	Robbie Gould	2.00	Robbie Gould	2.00
DEF	Buccaneers	6.84	Buccaneers	6.84

Carried by One Guy: Amari Cooper, 35.40 points (23.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Joe Mixon scored 44.10; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 29 – Oct 5, 2020

Martin

98.99

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Demich

168.38

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.00 points left. Optimal 113.99 vs. actual 98.99.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	22.34	Matthew Stafford	22.34
WR	Keenan Allen	14.20	Keenan Allen	14.20
WR	Tyler Boyd	16.40	Tyler Boyd	16.40
RB	Austin Ekeler	2.40	Nyheim Miller-Hines	7.04
RB	Nyheim Miller-Hines	7.04	J.K. Dobbins	2.70
TE	Tyler Higbee	5.00	Noah Fant	8.50
W/R/T	John Brown	8.20	Keelan Cole Sr.	8.60
W/R/T	Noah Fant	8.50	Scotty Miller	19.30
K	Ka'imi Fairbairn	11.00	Ka'imi Fairbairn	11.00
DEF	Bears	3.91	Bears	3.91

Carried by One Guy: Matthew Stafford, 22.34 points (22.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 26.10 points left. Optimal 194.48 vs. actual 168.38.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	39.28	Dak Prescott	39.28
WR	DK Metcalf	16.60	DK Metcalf	16.60
WR	CeeDee Lamb	25.72	CeeDee Lamb	25.72
RB	Melvin Gordon III	27.80	Latavius Murray	21.30
RB	Nick Chubb	4.30	Melvin Gordon III	27.80
TE	Drew Sample	7.70	Drew Sample	7.70
W/R/T	Julio Jones	7.20	Will Fuller V	24.80
W/R/T	Will Fuller V	24.80	Justin Jefferson	16.30
K	Dan Bailey	7.00	Dan Bailey	7.00
DEF	Colts	7.98	Colts	7.98

Carried by One Guy: Dak Prescott, 39.28 points (23.3% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 29 – Oct 5, 2020

Adam

125.61

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

143.94

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.20 points left. Optimal 129.81 vs. actual 125.61.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ryan Fitzpatrick	23.30	Ryan Fitzpatrick	23.30
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	15.30	Emmanuel Sanders	15.30
WR	DJ Chark	29.50	DJ Chark	29.50
RB	David Montgomery	10.70	David Montgomery	10.70
RB	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	12.10	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	12.10
TE	Mike Gesicki	2.50	Mike Gesicki	2.50
W/R/T	Julian Edelman	6.50	Golden Tate	6.60
W/R/T	Golden Tate	6.60	Malcolm Brown	10.70
K	Daniel Carlson	12.00	Daniel Carlson	12.00
DEF	Jets	7.11	Jets	7.11

Carried by One Guy: DJ Chark, 29.50 points (23.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Odell Beckham Jr. scored 38.40; zeroing that score creates a win.

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.10 points left. Optimal 145.04 vs. actual 143.94.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	25.42	Josh Allen	25.42
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	38.40	Randall Cobb	5.60
WR	Preston Williams	4.50	Odell Beckham Jr.	38.40
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	22.10	Aaron Jones Sr.	22.10
RB	Myles Gaskin	9.20	Myles Gaskin	9.20
TE	Dalton Schultz	17.20	Dalton Schultz	17.20
W/R/T	Hayden Hurst	9.10	Hayden Hurst	9.10
W/R/T	Hunter Renfrow	11.02	Hunter Renfrow	11.02
K	Ryan Succop	7.00	Ryan Succop	7.00
DEF	Cardinals	0.00	Cardinals	0.00

Carried by One Guy: Odell Beckham Jr., 38.40 points (26.7% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 29 – Oct 5, 2020

Josh

84.61

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Nevans

129.04

Rank 9; +1.5 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.40 points left. Optimal 87.01 vs. actual 84.61.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	12.40	Matt Ryan	12.40
WR	Kenny Golladay	16.20	Kenny Golladay	16.20
WR	Calvin Ridley	0.00	Larry Fitzgerald	2.40
RB	David Johnson	11.20	David Johnson	11.20
RB	Josh Jacobs	10.30	Josh Jacobs	10.30
TE	Chris Herndon	2.10	Chris Herndon	2.10
W/R/T	Zach Pascal	8.80	Zach Pascal	8.80
W/R/T	Jeff Wilson Jr.	2.90	Jeff Wilson Jr.	2.90
K	Jason Myers	9.00	Jason Myers	9.00
DEF	Rams	11.71	Rams	11.71

Carried by One Guy: Kenny Golladay, 16.20 points (19.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.60 points left. Optimal 142.64 vs. actual 129.04.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	20.24	Patrick Mahomes	20.24
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	11.10	DeAndre Hopkins	11.10
WR	Stefon Diggs	19.50	Stefon Diggs	19.50
RB	Kareem Hunt	19.10	Kareem Hunt	19.10
RB	Devin Singletary	18.70	Devin Singletary	18.70
TE	Hunter Henry	5.90	Hunter Henry	5.90
W/R/T	Brandin Cooks	0.00	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	8.50
W/R/T	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	8.50	Brandon Aiyuk	13.60
K	Harrison Butker	6.00	Harrison Butker	6.00
DEF	Chiefs	20.00	Chiefs	20.00

Carried by One Guy: Patrick Mahomes, 20.24 points (15.7% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 29 – Oct 5, 2020

Niz

147.56

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

85.97

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 147.56 vs. actual 147.56.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	25.02	Lamar Jackson	25.02
WR	T.Y. Hilton	5.90	T.Y. Hilton	5.90
WR	Adam Thielen	28.20	Adam Thielen	28.20
RB	Alvin Kamara	21.16	Alvin Kamara	21.16
RB	Jamaal Williams	18.50	Jamaal Williams	18.50
TE	T.J. Hockenson	10.90	T.J. Hockenson	10.90
W/R/T	Cole Beasley	12.20	Cole Beasley	12.20
W/R/T	Sammy Watkins	6.30	Sammy Watkins	6.30
K	Rodrigo Blankenship	13.00	Rodrigo Blankenship	13.00
DEF	Bills	6.38	Bills	6.38

Carried by One Guy: Adam Thielen, 28.20 points (19.1% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.50 points left. Optimal 93.47 vs. actual 85.97.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jared Goff	11.70	Jared Goff	11.70
WR	Cooper Kupp	18.02	Cooper Kupp	18.02
WR	KJ Hamler	0.00	Deebo Samuel Sr.	7.50
RB	Joshua Kelley	4.30	Joshua Kelley	4.30
RB	James Robinson	14.70	James Robinson	14.70
TE	Zach Ertz	6.90	Zach Ertz	6.90
W/R/T	Russell Gage Jr.	4.00	Russell Gage Jr.	4.00
W/R/T	Tee Higgins	13.00	Tee Higgins	13.00
K	Justin Tucker	8.00	Justin Tucker	8.00
DEF	Seahawks	5.35	Seahawks	5.35

Carried by One Guy: Cooper Kupp, 18.02 points (21.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 29 – Oct 5, 2020

Big Hut

148.40

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Kev

109.00

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 20.20 points left. Optimal 168.60 vs. actual 148.40.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	22.90	Russell Wilson	22.90
WR	Allen Robinson	25.10	Allen Robinson	25.10
WR	Jerry Jeudy	14.10	Jerry Jeudy	14.10
RB	Mark Ingram II	10.70	Mark Ingram II	10.70
RB	Chris Thompson	0.00	Alexander Mattison	7.70
TE	George Kittle	42.10	George Kittle	42.10
W/R/T	Marvin Jones Jr.	1.90	DeVante Parker	23.00
W/R/T	DeVante Parker	23.00	Austin Hooper	14.40
K	Wil Lutz	5.00	Wil Lutz	5.00
DEF	Saints	3.60	Saints	3.60

Carried by One Guy: George Kittle, 42.10 points (28.4% of positive starter points).

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 109.00 vs. actual 109.00.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	17.10	Joe Burrow	17.10
WR	Robert Woods	9.80	Robert Woods	9.80
WR	Michael Gallup	4.90	Michael Gallup	4.90
RB	Darrell Henderson Jr.	4.70	Darrell Henderson Jr.	4.70
RB	Antonio Gibson	22.80	Antonio Gibson	22.80
TE	Evan Engram	9.50	Evan Engram	9.50
W/R/T	Tre'Quan Smith	21.40	Tre'Quan Smith	21.40
W/R/T	Mecole Hardman Jr.	12.70	Mecole Hardman Jr.	12.70
K	Matt Prater	3.00	Matt Prater	3.00
DEF	Chargers	3.10	Chargers	3.10

Carried by One Guy: Antonio Gibson, 22.80 points (20.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: George Kittle scored 42.10; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 29 – Oct 5, 2020

Miller

140.52

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

176.30

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 32.44 points left. Optimal 172.96 vs. actual 140.52.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	34.46	Tom Brady	34.46
WR	Jamison Crowder	19.40	Jamison Crowder	19.40
WR	Hollywood Brown	12.60	Hollywood Brown	12.60
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	20.50	Ezekiel Elliott	20.50
RB	Jonathan Taylor	8.90	Tony Pollard	11.94
TE	Travis Kelce	10.00	Robert Tonyan	33.80
W/R/T	Adrian Peterson	9.60	Chase Edmonds	15.00
W/R/T	Chase Edmonds	15.00	D'Andre Swift	15.20
K	Zane Gonzalez	3.00	Zane Gonzalez	3.00
DEF	49ers	7.06	49ers	7.06

Carried by One Guy: Tom Brady, 34.46 points (24.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.00 points left. Optimal 180.30 vs. actual 176.30.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	23.12	Kyler Murray	23.12
WR	DJ Moore	8.90	Terry McLaurin	23.80
WR	Terry McLaurin	23.80	Laviska Shenault Jr.	14.10
RB	Dalvin Cook	30.60	Dalvin Cook	30.60
RB	Chris Carson	25.00	Chris Carson	25.00
TE	Mark Andrews	20.70	Mark Andrews	20.70
W/R/T	Ronald Jones	20.80	James White	12.90
W/R/T	Laviska Shenault Jr.	14.10	Ronald Jones	20.80
K	Greg Zuerlein	2.00	Greg Zuerlein	2.00
DEF	Ravens	7.28	Ravens	7.28

Carried by One Guy: Dalvin Cook, 30.60 points (17.4% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	2–2	2.077	0.0	0.000	1 / 1
Martin	1–3	2.154	-5.5	-0.423	0 / 1
Miller	2–2	1.923	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Demich	4–0	3.308	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Krajcik	1–3	2.231	-6.5	-0.500	1 / 2
Big Hut	2–2	1.769	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Niz	2–2	1.923	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Josh	1–3	1.308	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Adam	1–3	1.538	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Fischer	3–1	1.846	+3.5	+0.269	1 / 0
Nevans	4–0	2.500	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 0
Joe Shore	1–3	1.154	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Kev	1–3	1.077	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Horgan	3–1	3.192	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1

2020 week 4 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Krajcik lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Demich lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Nevans lineup

Regular

Niz lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 4