2020 week 3 · Luck Factor

Regular

Sep 22 – 28, 2020

j-mart

145.94

Rank 5; -2.5 luck points

Demich

166.66

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.78 points left. Optimal 160.72 vs. actual 145.94.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Baker Mayfield	14.34	Carson Wentz	21.50
WR	Mike Evans	14.20	Mike Evans	14.20
WR	Tyler Lockett	39.00	Tyler Lockett	39.00
RB	Kenyan Drake	8.90	Jerick McKinnon	16.70
RB	Joe Mixon	8.50	Mike Davis	23.10
TE	Darren Waller	2.90	Darren Waller	2.90
W/R/T	Jerick McKinnon	16.70	Corey Davis	11.90
W/R/T	Mike Davis	23.10	Anthony Miller	13.12
K	Mason Crosby	16.00	Mason Crosby	16.00
DEF	Packers	2.30	Packers	2.30

Carried by One Guy: Tyler Lockett, 39.00 points (26.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Dak Prescott scored 29.48; zeroing that score creates a win.

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 22.20 points left. Optimal 188.86 vs. actual 166.66.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	29.48	Dak Prescott	29.48
WR	DK Metcalf	21.00	DK Metcalf	21.00
WR	CeeDee Lamb	12.24	CeeDee Lamb	12.24
RB	Melvin Gordon III	7.80	Melvin Gordon III	7.80
RB	Nick Chubb	26.00	Nick Chubb	26.00
TE	Jonnu Smith	11.10	Jonnu Smith	11.10
W/R/T	Will Fuller V	15.42	Will Fuller V	15.42
W/R/T	Kendrick Bourne	10.30	Justin Jefferson	32.50
K	Dan Bailey	7.00	Dan Bailey	7.00
DEF	Colts	26.32	Colts	26.32

Carried by One Guy: Dak Prescott, 29.48 points (17.7% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 22 – 28, 2020

Martin

162.53

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Miller

97.78

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.86 points left. Optimal 167.39 vs. actual 162.53.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	11.18	Cam Newton	11.18
WR	Keenan Allen	32.20	Keenan Allen	32.20
WR	Tyler Boyd	24.50	Tyler Boyd	24.50
RB	Derrick Henry	29.00	Derrick Henry	29.00
RB	Austin Ekeler	31.30	Austin Ekeler	31.30
TE	Tyler Higbee	8.00	Noah Fant	9.60
W/R/T	Keelan Cole Sr.	8.78	Nyheim Miller-Hines	10.34
W/R/T	Noah Fant	9.60	Scotty Miller	11.30
K	Ka'imi Fairbairn	3.00	Ka'imi Fairbairn	3.00
DEF	Bears	4.97	Bears	4.97

Carried by One Guy: Keenan Allen, 32.20 points (19.8% of positive starter points).

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.40 points left. Optimal 113.18 vs. actual 97.78.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	23.88	Tom Brady	23.88
WR	Hollywood Brown	3.30	Hollywood Brown	3.30
WR	Diontae Johnson	0.90	N'Keal Harry	5.60
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	17.80	Ezekiel Elliott	17.80
RB	Jonathan Taylor	13.20	Jonathan Taylor	13.20
TE	Travis Kelce	14.70	Travis Kelce	14.70
W/R/T	DeSean Jackson	3.10	Chase Edmonds	7.20
W/R/T	D'Andre Swift	2.90	Adrian Peterson	9.50
K	Zane Gonzalez	6.00	Zane Gonzalez	6.00
DEF	49ers	12.00	49ers	12.00

Carried by One Guy: Tom Brady, 23.88 points (24.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 22 – 28, 2020

Josh

89.57

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

115.43

Rank 11; +3.5 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 21.90 points left. Optimal 111.47 vs. actual 89.57.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	11.42	Matt Ryan	11.42
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	1.00	Kenny Golladay	17.70
WR	Calvin Ridley	18.70	Calvin Ridley	18.70
RB	David Johnson	12.60	David Johnson	12.60
RB	Josh Jacobs	9.30	Josh Jacobs	9.30
TE	Jared Cook	4.10	Chris Herndon	5.10
W/R/T	Kenny Golladay	17.70	Jeff Wilson Jr.	21.90
W/R/T	Michael Pittman Jr.	5.60	Michael Pittman Jr.	5.60
K	Younghoe Koo	6.00	Younghoe Koo	6.00
DEF	Rams	3.15	Rams	3.15

Carried by One Guy: Calvin Ridley, 18.70 points (20.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Josh Allen scored 33.24; zeroing that score creates a win.

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.00 points left. Optimal 132.43 vs. actual 115.43.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	33.24	Josh Allen	33.24
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	9.90	Odell Beckham Jr.	9.90
WR	Preston Williams	8.70	Preston Williams	8.70
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	16.60	Aaron Jones Sr.	16.60
RB	Myles Gaskin	14.50	Myles Gaskin	14.50
TE	Hayden Hurst	7.10	Dalton Schultz	8.80
W/R/T	Leonard Fournette	4.20	Randall Cobb	19.50
W/R/T	Tre'Quan Smith	8.20	Tre'Quan Smith	8.20
K	Ryan Succop	8.00	Ryan Succop	8.00
DEF	Cardinals	4.99	Cardinals	4.99

Carried by One Guy: Josh Allen, 33.24 points (28.8% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 22 – 28, 2020

Niz

131.51

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Nevans

144.05

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.88 points left. Optimal 147.39 vs. actual 131.51.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	14.18	Lamar Jackson	14.18
WR	T.Y. Hilton	8.20	T.Y. Hilton	8.20
WR	Adam Thielen	12.30	Adam Thielen	12.30
RB	Alvin Kamara	46.70	Giovani Bernard	8.78
RB	Wayne Gallman	3.40	Alvin Kamara	46.70
TE	T.J. Hockenson	9.30	T.J. Hockenson	9.30
W/R/T	Cole Beasley	18.00	Cole Beasley	18.00
W/R/T	Mike Williams	2.70	Sammy Watkins	13.20
K	Rodrigo Blankenship	12.00	Rodrigo Blankenship	12.00
DEF	Bills	4.73	Bills	4.73

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Alvin Kamara, 46.70 points (35.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Patrick Mahomes scored 42.00; zeroing that score creates a win.

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.70 points left. Optimal 160.75 vs. actual 144.05.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	42.00	Patrick Mahomes	42.00
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	25.70	DeAndre Hopkins	25.70
WR	Stefon Diggs	14.90	Stefon Diggs	14.90
RB	Kareem Hunt	14.40	Kareem Hunt	14.40
RB	Devin Singletary	16.10	Devin Singletary	16.10
TE	Hunter Henry	10.00	Hunter Henry	10.00
W/R/T	Brandin Cooks	5.30	Brandon Aiyuk	21.10
W/R/T	Darius Slayton	6.30	Frank Gore	7.20
K	Harrison Butker	3.00	Harrison Butker	3.00
DEF	Titans	6.35	Titans	6.35

Carried by One Guy: Patrick Mahomes, 42.00 points (29.2% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 22 – 28, 2020

Big Hut

142.82

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

144.28

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.70 points left. Optimal 146.52 vs. actual 142.82.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	38.80	Russell Wilson	38.80
WR	Allen Robinson	30.30	Allen Robinson	30.30
WR	Curtis Samuel	9.20	Curtis Samuel	9.20
RB	Mark Ingram II	3.00	Chris Thompson	8.80
RB	Chris Thompson	8.80	La'Mical Perine	4.30
TE	Jordan Reed	4.30	Jordan Reed	4.30
W/R/T	Marvin Jones Jr.	8.10	DeVante Parker	11.90
W/R/T	DeVante Parker	11.90	Jerry Jeudy	10.50
K	Wil Lutz	13.00	Wil Lutz	13.00
DEF	Browns	15.42	Browns	15.42

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Russell Wilson, 38.80 points (27.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: James Robinson scored 30.90; zeroing that score creates a win.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.84 points left. Optimal 159.12 vs. actual 144.28.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	18.50	Jared Goff	29.24
WR	Cooper Kupp	27.70	Cooper Kupp	27.70
WR	Chris Godwin Jr.	17.40	Chris Godwin Jr.	17.40
RB	Joshua Kelley	5.20	Joshua Kelley	5.20
RB	James Robinson	30.90	James Robinson	30.90
TE	Zach Ertz	14.00	Zach Ertz	14.00
W/R/T	Dallas Goedert	1.70	Russell Gage Jr.	4.60
W/R/T	Russell Gage Jr.	4.60	KJ Hamler	5.80
K	Justin Tucker	8.00	Justin Tucker	8.00
DEF	Patriots	16.28	Patriots	16.28

Carried by One Guy: James Robinson, 30.90 points (21.4% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 22 – 28, 2020

Krajcik

150.20

Rank 4; -3.5 luck points

Kev

158.11

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.70 points left. Optimal 160.90 vs. actual 150.20.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	24.52	Aaron Rodgers	24.52
WR	A.J. Green	8.60	Tyreek Hill	21.20
WR	Tyreek Hill	21.20	Robbie Chosen	10.50
RB	Todd Gurley	15.20	Todd Gurley	15.20
RB	Miles Sanders	14.70	Miles Sanders	14.70
TE	Mo Alie-Cox	14.00	Mo Alie-Cox	14.00
W/R/T	Dion Lewis	2.00	Rob Gronkowski	10.80
W/R/T	Amari Cooper	17.60	Amari Cooper	17.60
K	Robbie Gould	13.00	Robbie Gould	13.00
DEF	Buccaneers	19.38	Buccaneers	19.38

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Aaron Rodgers, 24.52 points (16.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Michael Gallup scored 27.80; zeroing that score creates a win.

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.52 points left. Optimal 168.63 vs. actual 158.11.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	22.38	Joe Burrow	22.38
WR	Robert Woods	21.40	Robert Woods	21.40
WR	Michael Gallup	27.80	Michael Gallup	27.80
RB	James Conner	26.90	James Conner	26.90
RB	Darrell Henderson Jr.	21.00	Darrell Henderson Jr.	21.00
TE	Evan Engram	5.20	Evan Engram	5.20
W/R/T	Adam Humphries	8.10	Mecole Hardman Jr.	18.62
W/R/T	Antonio Gibson	13.00	Antonio Gibson	13.00
K	Chris Boswell	7.00	Chris Boswell	7.00
DEF	Chargers	5.33	Chargers	5.33

Carried by One Guy: Michael Gallup, 27.80 points (17.6% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 22 – 28, 2020

Adam

114.72

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

144.05

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.94 points left. Optimal 131.66 vs. actual 114.72.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Gardner Minshew II	9.20	Ryan Tannehill	14.74
WR	Julian Edelman	4.20	Emmanuel Sanders	15.60
WR	JuJu Smith-Schuster	16.30	JuJu Smith-Schuster	16.30
RB	David Montgomery	7.40	David Montgomery	7.40
RB	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	18.40	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	18.40
TE	Mike Gesicki	8.50	Mike Gesicki	8.50
W/R/T	Golden Tate	8.60	Golden Tate	8.60
W/R/T	Allen Lazard	28.40	Allen Lazard	28.40
K	Daniel Carlson	6.00	Daniel Carlson	6.00
DEF	Steelers	7.72	Steelers	7.72

Carried by One Guy: Allen Lazard, 28.40 points (24.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Rex Burkhead scored 34.80; zeroing that score creates a win.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.90 points left. Optimal 144.95 vs. actual 144.05.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	21.70	Kyler Murray	21.70
WR	DJ Moore	8.50	DJ Moore	8.50
WR	Terry McLaurin	12.60	Terry McLaurin	12.60
RB	Dalvin Cook	27.90	Dalvin Cook	27.90
RB	Chris Carson	10.60	Chris Carson	10.60
TE	Mark Andrews	5.20	Mark Andrews	5.20
W/R/T	Rex Burkhead	34.80	Rex Burkhead	34.80
W/R/T	Laviska Shenault Jr.	8.40	Ronald Jones	9.30
K	Greg Zuerlein	7.00	Greg Zuerlein	7.00
DEF	Ravens	7.35	Ravens	7.35

Carried by One Guy: Rex Burkhead, 34.80 points (24.2% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	1–2	1.231	0.0	0.000	1 / 1
Martin	1–2	2.000	-5.5	-0.423	0 / 1
Miller	2–1	1.462	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Demich	3–0	2.385	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Krajcik	1–2	1.462	-3.0	-0.231	1 / 1
Big Hut	1–2	1.077	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Niz	1–2	1.308	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Josh	1–2	1.308	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Adam	1–2	1.231	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Fischer	2–1	1.308	+3.5	+0.269	1 / 0
Nevans	3–0	2.115	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Joe Shore	1–2	1.077	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Kev	1–2	0.846	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Horgan	2–1	2.192	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1

2020 week 3 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Demich lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Miller lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Niz lineup

Nevans lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 3