2020 week 9 · Luck Factor

Regular

Nov 3 – 9, 2020

j-mart

116.52

Rank 7; -0.5 luck points

Fischer

156.03

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 116.52 vs. actual 116.52.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Lock	31.22	Drew Lock	31.22
WR	Mike Evans	10.40	Mike Evans	10.40
WR	Tyler Lockett	8.00	Tyler Lockett	8.00
RB	Adrian Peterson	7.30	Jerick McKinnon	16.40
RB	Jerick McKinnon	16.40	Adrian Peterson	7.30
TE	Darren Waller	13.20	Darren Waller	13.20
W/R/T	Mike Davis	8.70	Mike Davis	8.70
W/R/T	Russell Gage Jr.	3.10	Russell Gage Jr.	3.10
K	Nick Folk	14.00	Nick Folk	14.00
DEF	Texans	4.20	Texans	4.20

Carried by One Guy: Drew Lock, 31.22 points (26.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.40 points left. Optimal 157.43 vs. actual 156.03.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	38.00	Josh Allen	38.00
WR	Davante Adams	35.30	Davante Adams	35.30
WR	Trent Taylor	2.16	Trent Taylor	2.16
RB	Leonard Fournette	10.10	Leonard Fournette	10.10
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	12.90	Aaron Jones Sr.	12.90
TE	Hayden Hurst	13.20	Hayden Hurst	13.20
W/R/T	DJ Chark	29.60	Brian Hill	2.40
W/R/T	Henry Ruggs III	1.00	DJ Chark	29.60
K	Matt Prater	8.00	Matt Prater	8.00
DEF	Commanders	5.77	Commanders	5.77

Carried by One Guy: Josh Allen, 38.00 points (24.4% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 3 – 9, 2020

Martin

133.55

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Adam

80.69

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.50 points left. Optimal 136.05 vs. actual 133.55.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	24.56	Cam Newton	24.56
WR	Keenan Allen	27.30	Keenan Allen	27.30
WR	A.J. Brown	22.10	A.J. Brown	22.10
RB	Derrick Henry	6.80	Derrick Henry	6.80
RB	JaMycal Hasty	3.72	Nyheim Miller-Hines	6.22
TE	Noah Fant	7.50	Noah Fant	7.50
W/R/T	John Brown	17.90	John Brown	17.90
W/R/T	J.K. Dobbins	5.50	J.K. Dobbins	5.50
K	Younghoe Koo	12.00	Younghoe Koo	12.00
DEF	Bears	6.17	Bears	6.17

Carried by One Guy: Keenan Allen, 27.30 points (20.4% of positive starter points).

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 47.70 points left. Optimal 128.39 vs. actual 80.69.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Derek Carr	14.00	Derek Carr	14.00
WR	Corey Davis	0.00	Emmanuel Sanders	13.80
WR	JuJu Smith-Schuster	21.30	JuJu Smith-Schuster	21.30
RB	Justin Jackson	0.00	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	12.40
RB	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	12.40	Joshua Kelley	10.90
TE	Eric Ebron	11.20	Eric Ebron	11.20
W/R/T	Le'Veon Bell	1.30	Nelson Agholor	13.50
W/R/T	David Montgomery	5.20	Preston Williams	16.00
K	Daniel Carlson	7.00	Daniel Carlson	7.00
DEF	Steelers	8.29	Steelers	8.29

Carried by One Guy: JuJu Smith-Schuster, 21.30 points (26.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Nov 3 – 9, 2020

Miller

109.04

Rank 10; +2.5 luck points

Josh

88.29

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.40 points left. Optimal 112.44 vs. actual 109.04.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	2.36	Tom Brady	2.36
WR	Hollywood Brown	6.80	Diontae Johnson	14.10
WR	Diontae Johnson	14.10	Denzel Mims	10.20
RB	Chase Edmonds	11.80	Chase Edmonds	11.80
RB	D'Andre Swift	12.70	D'Andre Swift	12.70
TE	Travis Kelce	27.90	Travis Kelce	27.90
W/R/T	Jamison Crowder	10.60	Jamison Crowder	10.60
W/R/T	Chase Claypool	15.30	Chase Claypool	15.30
K	Justin Tucker	7.00	Justin Tucker	7.00
DEF	49ers	0.48	49ers	0.48

Carried by One Guy: Travis Kelce, 27.90 points (25.6% of positive starter points).

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 40.36 points left. Optimal 128.65 vs. actual 88.29.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Herbert	25.44	Justin Herbert	25.44
WR	Tim Patrick	12.90	Tim Patrick	12.90
WR	Laviska Shenault Jr.	0.90	Danny Amendola	15.56
RB	David Johnson	1.60	Devontae Booker	12.80
RB	Josh Jacobs	13.80	Josh Jacobs	13.80
TE	Jared Cook	3.00	Jimmy Graham	17.50
W/R/T	Zack Moss	12.80	Zack Moss	12.80
W/R/T	La'Mical Perine	5.80	La'Mical Perine	5.80
K	Rodrigo Blankenship	5.00	Rodrigo Blankenship	5.00
DEF	Packers	7.05	Packers	7.05

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Justin Herbert, 25.44 points (28.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Travis Kelce scored 27.90; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 3 – 9, 2020

Demich

145.14

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Niz

95.43

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 19.32 points left. Optimal 164.46 vs. actual 145.14.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Teddy Bridgewater	30.30	Teddy Bridgewater	30.30
WR	Julio Jones	16.40	Julio Jones	16.40
WR	Will Fuller V	23.00	Will Fuller V	23.00
RB	Melvin Gordon III	3.70	J.D. McKissic	17.20
RB	Damien Harris	7.10	Damien Harris	7.10
TE	Jonnu Smith	11.20	Jonnu Smith	11.20
W/R/T	DK Metcalf	25.80	DK Metcalf	25.80
W/R/T	Justin Jefferson	9.40	CeeDee Lamb	15.22
K	Ka'imi Fairbairn	11.00	Ka'imi Fairbairn	11.00
DEF	Colts	7.24	Colts	7.24

Carried by One Guy: Teddy Bridgewater, 30.30 points (20.9% of positive starter points).

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.60 points left. Optimal 101.03 vs. actual 95.43.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	18.60	Lamar Jackson	18.60
WR	Adam Thielen	5.80	Adam Thielen	5.80
WR	Sterling Shepard	11.70	Sterling Shepard	11.70
RB	Alvin Kamara	15.90	Alvin Kamara	15.90
RB	Phillip Lindsay	2.30	Frank Gore	7.90
TE	T.J. Hockenson	14.90	T.J. Hockenson	14.90
W/R/T	Cole Beasley	6.90	Cole Beasley	6.90
W/R/T	Mike Williams	13.10	Mike Williams	13.10
K	Ryan Succop	4.00	Ryan Succop	4.00
DEF	Seahawks	2.23	Seahawks	2.23

Carried by One Guy: Lamar Jackson, 18.60 points (19.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Nov 3 – 9, 2020

Krajcik

114.81

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

158.16

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.76 points left. Optimal 127.57 vs. actual 114.81.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Deshaun Watson	24.24	Aaron Rodgers	30.90
WR	Tyreek Hill	35.10	Tyreek Hill	35.10
WR	Robbie Chosen	15.30	Robbie Chosen	15.30
RB	Devonta Freeman	0.00	Devonta Freeman	0.00
RB	Todd Gurley	13.50	Todd Gurley	13.50
TE	Rob Gronkowski	1.20	Mo Alie-Cox	7.30
W/R/T	Amari Cooper	12.50	Amari Cooper	12.50
W/R/T	Hunter Renfrow	8.50	Hunter Renfrow	8.50
K	Robbie Gould	4.00	Robbie Gould	4.00
DEF	Buccaneers	0.47	Buccaneers	0.47

Carried by One Guy: Tyreek Hill, 35.10 points (30.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 24.80 points left. Optimal 182.96 vs. actual 158.16.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	24.10	Russell Wilson	24.10
WR	Allen Robinson	15.10	Allen Robinson	15.10
WR	DeVante Parker	12.40	DeVante Parker	12.40
RB	Christian McCaffrey	37.10	Christian McCaffrey	37.10
RB	Jordan Wilkins	5.80	Alexander Mattison	6.90
TE	Mike Gesicki	7.20	Mike Gesicki	7.20
W/R/T	Randall Cobb	5.10	Curtis Samuel	28.80
W/R/T	Jerry Jeudy	27.50	Jerry Jeudy	27.50
K	Wil Lutz	8.00	Wil Lutz	8.00
DEF	Titans	15.86	Titans	15.86

Carried by One Guy: Christian McCaffrey, 37.10 points (23.5% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 3 – 9, 2020

Nevans

114.04

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Kev

116.76

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.80 points left. Optimal 119.84 vs. actual 114.04.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	32.88	Patrick Mahomes	32.88
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	6.00	DeAndre Hopkins	6.00
WR	Stefon Diggs	22.80	Stefon Diggs	22.80
RB	Duke Johnson	15.30	Duke Johnson	15.30
RB	Devin Singletary	6.40	Devin Singletary	6.40
TE	Robert Tonyan	1.50	Hunter Henry	7.30
W/R/T	Brandin Cooks	17.30	Brandin Cooks	17.30
W/R/T	Darius Slayton	1.80	Darius Slayton	1.80
K	Harrison Butker	10.00	Harrison Butker	10.00
DEF	Chiefs	0.06	Chiefs	0.06

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Patrick Mahomes, 32.88 points (28.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jakobi Meyers scored 30.90; zeroing that score creates a win.

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.60 points left. Optimal 119.36 vs. actual 116.76.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	8.44	Matthew Stafford	8.44
WR	Marvin Jones Jr.	13.30	Marvin Jones Jr.	13.30
WR	Jakobi Meyers	30.90	Jakobi Meyers	30.90
RB	James Conner	4.00	Antonio Gibson	12.50
RB	Antonio Gibson	12.50	DeeJay Dallas	11.90
TE	Evan Engram	15.80	Evan Engram	15.80
W/R/T	Mecole Hardman Jr.	7.92	Michael Gallup	6.60
W/R/T	DeeJay Dallas	11.90	Mecole Hardman Jr.	7.92
K	Michael Badgley	8.00	Michael Badgley	8.00
DEF	Patriots	4.00	Patriots	4.00

Carried by One Guy: Jakobi Meyers, 30.90 points (26.5% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 3 – 9, 2020

Joe Shore

98.52

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

170.10

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.34 points left. Optimal 101.86 vs. actual 98.52.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kirk Cousins	20.80	Kirk Cousins	20.80
WR	Michael Thomas	10.10	Michael Thomas	10.10
WR	Chris Godwin Jr.	7.10	Chris Godwin Jr.	7.10
RB	Tyler Ervin	11.20	Tyler Ervin	11.20
RB	James Robinson	15.90	James Robinson	15.90
TE	Logan Thomas	5.80	Logan Thomas	5.80
W/R/T	Marvin Hall	6.06	Gus Edwards	9.40
W/R/T	Darnell Mooney	9.30	Darnell Mooney	9.30
K	Brandon McManus	11.00	Brandon McManus	11.00
DEF	Cardinals	1.26	Cardinals	1.26

Carried by One Guy: Kirk Cousins, 20.80 points (21.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.50 points left. Optimal 182.60 vs. actual 170.10.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	39.92	Kyler Murray	39.92
WR	DJ Moore	3.80	Antonio Brown	6.10
WR	Terry McLaurin	26.50	Terry McLaurin	26.50
RB	Dalvin Cook	41.20	James White	6.40
RB	Ronald Jones	4.80	Dalvin Cook	41.20
TE	Mark Andrews	5.20	Mark Andrews	5.20
W/R/T	Antonio Brown	6.10	Wayne Gallman	14.70
W/R/T	Christian Kirk	25.22	Christian Kirk	25.22
K	Dan Bailey	3.00	Dan Bailey	3.00
DEF	Ravens	14.36	Ravens	14.36

Carried by One Guy: Dalvin Cook, 41.20 points (24.2% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	4–5	4.692	-2.0	-0.154	1 / 3
Martin	4–5	5.154	-5.5	-0.423	0 / 1
Miller	4–5	4.000	+2.0	+0.154	1 / 1
Demich	7–2	6.462	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1
Krajcik	4–5	5.154	-6.5	-0.500	1 / 2
Big Hut	4–5	4.231	-1.5	-0.115	0 / 1
Niz	4–5	4.077	+0.5	+0.038	1 / 0
Josh	4–5	3.000	+5.0	+0.385	2 / 0
Adam	2–7	2.231	+3.5	+0.269	1 / 0
Fischer	4–5	4.231	0.0	0.000	1 / 1
Nevans	7–2	5.423	+3.0	+0.231	2 / 0
Joe Shore	3–6	3.538	-0.5	-0.038	0 / 1
Kev	5–4	3.462	+4.5	+0.346	1 / 0
Horgan	7–2	7.346	-5.5	-0.423	1 / 2

2020 week 9 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Niz lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Nevans lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Joe Shore lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 9