2020 week 12 · Luck Factor

Regular

Nov 24 – Dec 2, 2020

j-mart

125.28

Rank 6; -1.5 luck points

Kev

144.26

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.50 points left. Optimal 137.78 vs. actual 125.28.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ryan Fitzpatrick	19.28	Ryan Fitzpatrick	19.28
WR	Mike Evans	20.00	Mike Evans	20.00
WR	Tyler Lockett	5.30	Tyler Lockett	5.30
RB	Mike Davis	10.90	Mike Davis	10.90
RB	Kenyan Drake	24.30	Kenyan Drake	24.30
TE	Darren Waller	6.30	Darren Waller	6.30
W/R/T	Jarvis Landry	30.30	Jarvis Landry	30.30
W/R/T	Royce Freeman	5.00	Adrian Peterson	17.50
K	Mason Crosby	4.00	Mason Crosby	4.00
DEF	Lions	-0.10	Lions	-0.10

Carried by One Guy: Jarvis Landry, 30.30 points (24.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Antonio Gibson scored 38.60; zeroing that score creates a win.

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.20 points left. Optimal 147.46 vs. actual 144.26.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Philip Rivers	17.80	Philip Rivers	17.80
WR	Marvin Jones Jr.	10.80	Breshad Perriman	11.90
WR	Jakobi Meyers	10.20	Allen Lazard	12.30
RB	Ty Johnson	1.40	Ty Johnson	1.40
RB	Antonio Gibson	38.60	Antonio Gibson	38.60
TE	Evan Engram	18.90	Evan Engram	18.90
W/R/T	Robert Woods	15.80	Robert Woods	15.80
W/R/T	Tee Higgins	15.40	Tee Higgins	15.40
K	Michael Badgley	1.00	Michael Badgley	1.00
DEF	Saints	14.36	Saints	14.36

Carried by One Guy: Antonio Gibson, 38.60 points (26.8% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 24 – Dec 2, 2020

Krajcik

193.12

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Adam

115.12

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.70 points left. Optimal 199.82 vs. actual 193.12.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Deshaun Watson	35.12	Deshaun Watson	35.12
WR	Tyreek Hill	59.90	Tyreek Hill	59.90
WR	Robbie Chosen	19.40	Robbie Chosen	19.40
RB	Cordarrelle Patterson	1.62	Cordarrelle Patterson	1.62
RB	Miles Sanders	6.20	Miles Sanders	6.20
TE	Rob Gronkowski	18.60	Rob Gronkowski	18.60
W/R/T	A.J. Green	0.00	Amari Cooper	25.20
W/R/T	Amari Cooper	25.20	Laviska Shenault Jr.	6.70
K	Jason Sanders	12.00	Jason Sanders	12.00
DEF	Packers	15.08	Packers	15.08

Carried by One Guy: Tyreek Hill, 59.90 points (31.0% of positive starter points).

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.50 points left. Optimal 120.62 vs. actual 115.12.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ben Roethlisberger	12.54	Ben Roethlisberger	12.54
WR	Nelson Agholor	10.40	Nelson Agholor	10.40
WR	Michael Pittman Jr.	4.80	Corey Davis	10.00
RB	David Montgomery	27.30	Le'Veon Bell	5.20
RB	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	4.90	David Montgomery	27.30
TE	Eric Ebron	12.40	Eric Ebron	12.40
W/R/T	JuJu Smith-Schuster	17.70	JuJu Smith-Schuster	17.70
W/R/T	Brian Hill	5.50	Brian Hill	5.50
K	Daniel Carlson	4.00	Daniel Carlson	4.00
DEF	Steelers	15.58	Steelers	15.58

Carried by One Guy: David Montgomery, 27.30 points (23.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Nov 24 – Dec 2, 2020

Big Hut

107.81

Rank 11; +3.5 luck points

Josh

103.33

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.70 points left. Optimal 116.51 vs. actual 107.81.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	14.40	Russell Wilson	14.40
WR	Allen Robinson	27.40	Allen Robinson	27.40
WR	DeVante Parker	21.90	DeVante Parker	21.90
RB	Malcolm Brown	1.90	Malcolm Brown	1.90
RB	Boston Scott	11.60	Boston Scott	11.60
TE	Logan Thomas	13.42	Logan Thomas	13.42
W/R/T	Curtis Samuel	12.70	Curtis Samuel	12.70
W/R/T	Jerry Jeudy	0.00	Jordan Wilkins	8.70
K	Wil Lutz	8.00	Wil Lutz	8.00
DEF	Colts	-3.51	Colts	-3.51

Carried by One Guy: Allen Robinson, 27.40 points (24.6% of positive starter points).

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 103.33 vs. actual 103.33.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Herbert	18.44	Justin Herbert	18.44
WR	Josh Reynolds	9.00	Josh Reynolds	9.00
WR	Calvin Ridley	17.00	Calvin Ridley	17.00
RB	Josh Jacobs	5.40	Josh Jacobs	5.40
RB	Zack Moss	8.80	Zack Moss	8.80
TE	Dalton Schultz	7.40	Dalton Schultz	7.40
W/R/T	Giovani Bernard	6.90	Giovani Bernard	6.90
W/R/T	Benny Snell Jr.	12.30	Benny Snell Jr.	12.30
K	Rodrigo Blankenship	2.00	Rodrigo Blankenship	2.00
DEF	Rams	16.09	Rams	16.09

Carried by One Guy: Justin Herbert, 18.44 points (17.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Allen Robinson scored 27.40; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 24 – Dec 2, 2020

Demich

157.69

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

120.05

Rank 7; -0.5 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 25.48 points left. Optimal 183.17 vs. actual 157.69.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Derek Carr	0.60	Derek Carr	0.60
WR	Will Fuller V	37.10	Will Fuller V	37.10
WR	DK Metcalf	29.70	DK Metcalf	29.70
RB	J.D. McKissic	4.70	Latavius Murray	27.60
RB	Nick Chubb	28.60	Nick Chubb	28.60
TE	Jonnu Smith	0.00	Jonnu Smith	0.00
W/R/T	Damien Harris	4.70	CeeDee Lamb	7.28
W/R/T	Justin Jefferson	26.00	Justin Jefferson	26.00
K	Ka'imi Fairbairn	8.00	Ka'imi Fairbairn	8.00
DEF	Panthers	18.29	Panthers	18.29

Carried by One Guy: Will Fuller V, 37.10 points (23.5% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.18 points left. Optimal 131.23 vs. actual 120.05.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	15.48	Josh Allen	15.48
WR	Travis Fulgham	3.60	Henry Ruggs III	9.18
WR	Gabe Davis	16.90	Gabe Davis	16.90
RB	James White	14.70	James White	14.70
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	10.00	Aaron Jones Sr.	10.00
TE	Dallas Goedert	20.50	Dallas Goedert	20.50
W/R/T	Davante Adams	18.10	Davante Adams	18.10
W/R/T	Hayden Hurst	8.80	Cam Akers	14.40
K	Tyler Bass	11.00	Tyler Bass	11.00
DEF	Browns	0.97	Browns	0.97

Carried by One Guy: Dallas Goedert, 20.50 points (17.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Nov 24 – Dec 2, 2020

Miller

114.62

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Nevans

118.08

Rank 8; +0.5 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.70 points left. Optimal 128.32 vs. actual 114.62.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	23.70	Tom Brady	23.70
WR	Jamison Crowder	6.10	Hollywood Brown	18.50
WR	Denzel Mims	10.70	Denzel Mims	10.70
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	2.90	Chase Edmonds	8.66
RB	Chase Edmonds	8.66	Tony Pollard	4.20
TE	Travis Kelce	16.20	Travis Kelce	16.20
W/R/T	Diontae Johnson	12.60	Diontae Johnson	12.60
W/R/T	Chase Claypool	11.20	Chase Claypool	11.20
K	Zane Gonzalez	6.00	Zane Gonzalez	6.00
DEF	Commanders	16.56	Commanders	16.56

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Tom Brady, 23.70 points (20.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Patrick Mahomes scored 33.28; zeroing that score creates a win.

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 28.70 points left. Optimal 146.78 vs. actual 118.08.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	33.28	Patrick Mahomes	33.28
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	10.50	DeAndre Hopkins	10.50
WR	Stefon Diggs	10.90	Stefon Diggs	10.90
RB	Duke Johnson	17.00	Duke Johnson	17.00
RB	Kareem Hunt	6.20	Devin Singletary	11.20
TE	Hunter Henry	13.70	Hunter Henry	13.70
W/R/T	Brandin Cooks	13.50	Brandin Cooks	13.50
W/R/T	Darius Slayton	0.00	Robert Tonyan	17.70
K	Harrison Butker	6.00	Jason Myers	12.00
DEF	Vikings	7.00	Vikings	7.00

Carried by One Guy: Patrick Mahomes, 33.28 points (28.2% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 24 – Dec 2, 2020

Martin

177.28

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

141.83

Rank 5; -2.5 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.50 points left. Optimal 179.78 vs. actual 177.28.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	3.96	Cam Newton	3.96
WR	Keenan Allen	16.00	Keenan Allen	16.00
WR	A.J. Brown	26.64	A.J. Brown	26.64
RB	Derrick Henry	40.50	Derrick Henry	40.50
RB	Austin Ekeler	23.90	Austin Ekeler	23.90
TE	Kyle Rudolph	13.80	Kyle Rudolph	13.80
W/R/T	Tyler Boyd	4.50	Nyheim Miller-Hines	17.50
W/R/T	Nyheim Miller-Hines	17.50	Gus Edwards	7.00
K	Younghoe Koo	20.00	Younghoe Koo	20.00
DEF	Seahawks	10.48	Seahawks	10.48

Carried by One Guy: Derrick Henry, 40.50 points (22.8% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.30 points left. Optimal 144.13 vs. actual 141.83.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Carson Wentz	18.80	Carson Wentz	18.80
WR	Michael Thomas	9.10	Michael Thomas	9.10
WR	Chris Godwin Jr.	17.70	Chris Godwin Jr.	17.70
RB	Raheem Mostert	10.30	Raheem Mostert	10.30
RB	James Robinson	28.90	James Robinson	28.90
TE	Austin Hooper	9.30	Austin Hooper	9.30
W/R/T	Cooper Kupp	6.10	Deebo Samuel Sr.	26.30
W/R/T	Deebo Samuel Sr.	26.30	Darnell Mooney	8.40
K	Brandon McManus	5.00	Brandon McManus	5.00
DEF	Giants	10.33	Giants	10.33

Carried by One Guy: James Robinson, 28.90 points (20.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Derrick Henry scored 40.50; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 24 – Dec 2, 2020

Niz

87.22

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

102.73

Rank 13; +5.5 luck points

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures unavailable: starter-score-mismatch.

Carried by One Guy unavailable: starter-score-mismatch.

Opponent's Final Boss: Wayne Gallman scored 18.10; zeroing that score creates a win.

Roster evidence flags: starter-score-mismatch.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.16 points left. Optimal 116.89 vs. actual 102.73.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	7.90	Kyler Murray	7.90
WR	DJ Moore	10.10	DJ Moore	10.10
WR	Terry McLaurin	16.20	Terry McLaurin	16.20
RB	Dalvin Cook	10.20	Dalvin Cook	10.20
RB	Chris Carson	13.90	Chris Carson	13.90
TE	Will Dissly	0.00	Will Dissly	0.00
W/R/T	Antonio Brown	3.14	Wayne Gallman	18.10
W/R/T	Wayne Gallman	18.10	Ronald Jones	17.30
K	Joey Slye	9.00	Joey Slye	9.00
DEF	Dolphins	14.19	Dolphins	14.19

Carried by One Guy: Wayne Gallman, 18.10 points (17.6% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	5–7	6.462	-3.5	-0.269	1 / 4
Martin	6–6	7.231	-5.5	-0.423	0 / 1
Miller	6–6	6.000	+2.0	+0.154	1 / 1
Demich	9–3	8.308	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1
Krajcik	6–6	6.615	-5.0	-0.385	2 / 2
Big Hut	5–7	4.462	+2.0	+0.154	1 / 1
Niz	6–6	5.000	+5.0	+0.385	2 / 0
Josh	5–7	4.000	+5.0	+0.385	2 / 0
Adam	2–10	3.769	+1.0	+0.077	1 / 1
Fischer	5–7	5.462	0.0	0.000	2 / 2
Nevans	9–3	6.808	+3.5	+0.269	3 / 0
Joe Shore	3–9	5.077	-5.5	-0.423	0 / 3
Kev	7–5	5.385	+4.0	+0.308	1 / 1
Horgan	10–2	9.423	0.0	0.000	2 / 2

2020 week 12 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Nevans lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Niz lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 12