2019 season ledger
Actual results beside all-play expectation, schedule counterfactuals, weekly receipts, rivalries, and archived player evidence.
Actual and all-play standings
All-play is a score comparison, not a prediction of skill.
| Manager | W–L | PF | Expected wins | Luck points | Luck in wins | Lucky | Unlucky | All-play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nevans | 9–4 | 1791.01 | 8.308 | -1.0 | -0.077 | 1 | 1 | 63.9% |
| Big Hut | 9–4 | 1719.22 | 7.769 | 0.0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 59.8% |
| Horgan | 8–5 | 1758.88 | 8.385 | -2.5 | -0.192 | 0 | 1 | 64.5% |
| Kev | 8–5 | 1672.24 | 6.923 | +2.0 | +0.154 | 3 | 1 | 53.3% |
| Martin | 8–5 | 1551.10 | 5.385 | +8.0 | +0.615 | 4 | 0 | 41.4% |
| Niz | 7–6 | 1651.17 | 6.538 | +1.0 | +0.077 | 1 | 1 | 50.3% |
| j-mart | 6–7 | 1770.02 | 7.692 | -3.5 | -0.269 | 2 | 3 | 59.2% |
| Miller | 6–7 | 1719.41 | 6.385 | -2.0 | -0.154 | 1 | 3 | 49.1% |
| Adam | 6–7 | 1670.86 | 6.462 | +0.5 | +0.038 | 1 | 0 | 49.7% |
| Josh | 6–7 | 1583.76 | 5.923 | -2.0 | -0.154 | 1 | 1 | 45.6% |
| Krajcik | 6–7 | 1505.05 | 5.077 | +2.5 | +0.192 | 2 | 1 | 39.1% |
| Demich | 5–8 | 1566.28 | 5.385 | -1.0 | -0.077 | 2 | 2 | 41.4% |
| Joe Shore | 4–9 | 1548.77 | 4.538 | -1.5 | -0.115 | 0 | 1 | 34.9% |
| Fischer | 3–10 | 1631.83 | 6.231 | -10.5 | -0.808 | 1 | 4 | 47.9% |
All-play order
- Horgan — 8.385 expected wins; 109–60–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Nevans — 8.308 expected wins; 108–61–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Big Hut — 7.769 expected wins; 101–68–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- j-mart — 7.692 expected wins; 100–69–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Kev — 6.923 expected wins; 90–79–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Niz — 6.538 expected wins; 85–84–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Adam — 6.462 expected wins; 84–85–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Miller — 6.385 expected wins; 83–86–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Fischer — 6.231 expected wins; 81–88–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Josh — 5.923 expected wins; 77–92–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Demich — 5.385 expected wins; 70–99–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Martin — 5.385 expected wins; 70–99–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Krajcik — 5.077 expected wins; 66–103–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Joe Shore — 4.538 expected wins; 59–110–0 across weekly score comparisons.
Latest weekly receipts
All exact ties share the award.
Robbery of the Week
- FischerRank 4, 135.68 points, lost by 28.96. Open matchup
Get Out of Jail Free
- KevRank 11, 99.06 points, won by 5.40. Open matchup
Cumulative luck in wins
Normalized before totals are compared across league sizes.
| Manager | W1 | W2 | W3 | W4 | W5 | W6 | W7 | W8 | W9 | W10 | W11 | W12 | W13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.12 | -0.15 | -0.15 | -0.12 | -0.12 | -0.38 | -0.38 | -0.38 | -0.27 | -0.27 |
| Miller | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.12 | +0.12 | -0.08 | -0.12 | -0.12 | -0.12 | -0.12 | -0.12 | -0.12 | -0.12 | -0.15 |
| Demich | 0.00 | -0.27 | -0.27 | +0.15 | +0.15 | +0.15 | +0.15 | +0.15 | +0.15 | +0.15 | -0.12 | -0.12 | -0.08 |
| Krajcik | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.04 | -0.04 | -0.04 | 0.00 | +0.19 | +0.19 | +0.19 | +0.19 | +0.19 | +0.19 | +0.19 |
| Kev | -0.19 | -0.19 | -0.15 | -0.15 | -0.15 | -0.15 | -0.15 | -0.15 | -0.15 | -0.15 | -0.12 | -0.12 | +0.15 |
| Adam | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.04 |
| Niz | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.35 | +0.35 | +0.08 | +0.08 | +0.08 | +0.08 | +0.08 | +0.08 | +0.08 |
| Josh | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.19 | -0.19 | -0.19 | -0.19 | -0.19 | -0.19 | -0.19 | -0.15 | -0.15 | -0.15 | -0.15 |
| Fischer | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.27 | -0.27 | -0.27 | -0.27 | -0.27 | -0.15 | -0.15 | -0.27 | -0.27 | -0.54 | -0.81 |
| Nevans | 0.00 | +0.12 | +0.12 | +0.12 | +0.12 | +0.12 | -0.08 | -0.08 | -0.08 | -0.08 | -0.08 | -0.08 | -0.08 |
| Big Hut | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Martin | +0.19 | +0.19 | +0.38 | +0.38 | +0.50 | +0.50 | +0.50 | +0.50 | +0.50 | +0.50 | +0.62 | +0.62 | +0.62 |
| Joe Shore | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.12 | -0.12 | -0.12 |
| Horgan | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.19 | -0.19 | -0.19 | -0.19 | -0.19 | -0.19 |
Schedule Swap
Each score stays in its original week. Only the schedule owner changes.
| Source team | Best owner | Record | Worst owner | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | Big Hut | 9–4 (+3.0) | Fischer | 5–8 (-1.0) |
| Miller | Martin | 9–4 (+3.0) | j-mart | 5–8 (-1.0) |
| Demich | Horgan | 8–5 (+3.0) | Miller | 3–10 (-2.0) |
| Krajcik | Joe Shore | 8–5 (+2.0) | Niz | 3–10 (-3.0) |
| Kev | Martin | 9–4 (+1.0) | j-mart | 6–7 (-2.0) |
| Adam | Martin | 8–5 (+2.0) | j-mart | 6–7 (0.0) |
| Niz | Martin | 9–4 (+2.0) | Nevans | 4–9 (-3.0) |
| Josh | Big Hut | 8–5 (+2.0) | Adam | 4–9 (-2.0) |
| Fischer | Krajcik | 11–2 (+8.0) | Fischer | 3–10 (0.0) |
| Nevans | Horgan | 10–3 (+1.0) | Miller | 7–6 (-2.0) |
| Big Hut | Big Hut | 9–4 (0.0) | j-mart | 6–7 (-3.0) |
| Martin | Martin | 8–5 (0.0) | Nevans | 4–9 (-4.0) |
| Joe Shore | j-mart | 6–7 (+2.0) | Miller | 3–10 (-1.0) |
| Horgan | Martin | 10–3 (+2.0) | Demich | 6–7 (-2.0) |
Everybody's Super Bowl
Opponent score minus that opponent's mean in other eligible weeks. Each baseline needs two other weeks.
| Manager | Mean excess | Meetings | Largest receipt |
|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | +2.63 pts | 13 | Adam: +53.44 pts |
| Miller | +5.78 pts | 13 | Kev: +45.59 pts |
| Demich | +3.16 pts | 13 | Krajcik: +57.83 pts |
| Krajcik | -6.49 pts | 13 | Niz: +63.31 pts |
| Kev | -2.02 pts | 13 | Miller: +32.22 pts |
| Adam | +6.16 pts | 13 | Krajcik: +56.71 pts |
| Niz | -1.33 pts | 13 | Demich: +52.57 pts |
| Josh | -4.41 pts | 13 | Horgan: +41.69 pts |
| Fischer | +9.08 pts | 13 | Horgan: +47.95 pts |
| Nevans | +7.40 pts | 13 | Adam: +60.90 pts |
| Big Hut | -3.67 pts | 13 | Miller: +62.98 pts |
| Martin | -8.79 pts | 13 | Big Hut: +16.50 pts |
| Joe Shore | -3.16 pts | 13 | Krajcik: +25.50 pts |
| Horgan | -4.34 pts | 13 | Nevans: +35.64 pts |
Cupcake Schedule / Murderers' Row
Opponent percentile excludes both the focal team and the opponent. Higher means harder.
| Manager | Difficulty | Games | PA/game |
|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 53.8% | 13 | 128.88 |
| Miller | 53.8% | 13 | 132.09 |
| Demich | 53.8% | 13 | 130.57 |
| Krajcik | 39.1% | 13 | 122.02 |
| Kev | 50.6% | 13 | 125.16 |
| Adam | 57.1% | 13 | 132.72 |
| Niz | 50.0% | 13 | 125.93 |
| Josh | 45.5% | 13 | 123.48 |
| Fischer | 60.3% | 13 | 135.64 |
| Nevans | 56.4% | 13 | 133.15 |
| Big Hut | 45.5% | 13 | 123.36 |
| Martin | 41.7% | 13 | 119.63 |
| Joe Shore | 49.4% | 13 | 124.84 |
| Horgan | 42.9% | 13 | 122.51 |
Heart Attack Club
A close game has a margin of 5.00 points or less, inclusive.
| Manager | Close record | Games | Win-credit rate | Closest win | Closest loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 1–0 | 1 | 100.0% | 1.31 | None |
| Miller | 0–0 | 0 | Not enough history | None | None |
| Demich | 0–1 | 1 | 0.0% | None | 4.97 |
| Krajcik | 0–1 | 1 | 0.0% | None | 0.25 |
| Kev | 0–2 | 2 | 0.0% | None | 4.04 |
| Adam | 1–0 | 1 | 100.0% | 4.04 | None |
| Niz | 1–0 | 1 | 100.0% | 3.22 | None |
| Josh | 1–2 | 3 | 33.3% | 0.37 | 1.31 |
| Fischer | 0–1 | 1 | 0.0% | None | 0.37 |
| Nevans | 2–0 | 2 | 100.0% | 0.25 | None |
| Big Hut | 1–0 | 1 | 100.0% | 4.74 | None |
| Martin | 1–0 | 1 | 100.0% | 1.38 | None |
| Joe Shore | 0–1 | 1 | 0.0% | None | 3.22 |
| Horgan | 0–0 | 0 | Not enough history | None | None |
Paper Tiger / Wasted Talent
Actual win-credit rate against all-play win rate. The diagonal means equality.
| Manager | Actual | All-play | Gap | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 46.2% | 59.2% | -13.0 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Miller | 46.2% | 49.1% | -3.0 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Demich | 38.5% | 41.4% | -3.0 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Krajcik | 46.2% | 39.1% | +7.1 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Kev | 61.5% | 53.3% | +8.3 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Adam | 46.2% | 49.7% | -3.6 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Niz | 53.8% | 50.3% | +3.6 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Josh | 46.2% | 45.6% | +0.6 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Fischer | 23.1% | 47.9% | -24.9 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Nevans | 69.2% | 63.9% | +5.3 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Big Hut | 69.2% | 59.8% | +9.5 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Martin | 61.5% | 41.4% | +20.1 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Joe Shore | 30.8% | 34.9% | -4.1 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Horgan | 61.5% | 64.5% | -3.0 pp | Wasted Talent |
The Roller Coaster
Population standard deviation of weekly all-play percentile. Two weeks required.
| Manager | Volatility | Mean percentile | Weeks |
|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 26.0 pp | 59.2% | 13 |
| Miller | 27.6 pp | 49.1% | 13 |
| Demich | 31.1 pp | 41.4% | 13 |
| Krajcik | 31.7 pp | 39.1% | 13 |
| Kev | 35.1 pp | 53.3% | 13 |
| Adam | 36.9 pp | 49.7% | 13 |
| Niz | 38.2 pp | 50.3% | 13 |
| Josh | 24.8 pp | 45.6% | 13 |
| Fischer | 22.8 pp | 47.9% | 13 |
| Nevans | 28.0 pp | 63.9% | 13 |
| Big Hut | 29.4 pp | 59.8% | 13 |
| Martin | 22.7 pp | 41.4% | 13 |
| Joe Shore | 25.0 pp | 34.9% | 13 |
| Horgan | 30.8 pp | 64.5% | 13 |
Nemesis / Has Their Number
Stable-manager regular-season records. Postseason is kept separate on manager pages.
| Manager | Nemesis | Record | Has Their Number | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | Horgan | 0–1 | Niz | 1–0 |
| Miller | Nevans | 0–1 | Big Hut | 1–0 |
| Demich | Krajcik | 0–1 | Niz | 1–0 |
| Krajcik | Niz | 0–1 | Adam | 1–0 |
| Kev | Niz | 0–1 | Joe Shore | 1–0 |
| Adam | Krajcik | 0–1 | Nevans | 1–0 |
| Niz | j-mart | 0–1 | Krajcik | 1–0 |
| Josh | Horgan | 0–1 | Krajcik | 1–0 |
| Fischer | Joe Shore | 0–1 | Martin | 1–0 |
| Nevans | Adam | 0–1 | Miller | 1–0 |
| Big Hut | Miller | 0–1 | Krajcik | 1–0 |
| Martin | Fischer | 0–1 | Kev | 1–0 |
| Joe Shore | Kev | 0–1 | Demich | 1–0 |
| Horgan | Nevans | 0–1 | Josh | 1–0 |
Archived player statistics
Hindsight lineup using the archived roster and Yahoo-reported position eligibility; not a reconstruction of kickoff-time options.
Tinker Failures
| Manager | Points left | Avoidable losses | Receipts |
|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 127.06 | 5 | |
| Miller | 192.30 | 3 | |
| Demich | 199.91 | 1 | |
| Krajcik | 164.78 | 1 | |
| Kev | 68.06 | 0 | |
| Adam | 249.76 | 2 | |
| Niz | 104.94 | 1 | |
| Josh | 139.60 | 2 | |
| Fischer | 138.64 | 2 | |
| Nevans | 219.60 | 2 | |
| Big Hut | 244.56 | 1 | |
| Martin | 174.76 | 0 | |
| Joe Shore | 181.89 | 1 | |
| Horgan | 186.26 | 1 |
Carried by One Guy
| Manager | Leading player | Share | Positive starter points | Receipts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | Russell Wilson | 15.5% | 1770.02 | 13 weeks
|
| Miller | Josh Jacobs | 11.0% | 1719.41 | |
| Demich | Kyler Murray | 13.9% | 1566.28 | 13 weeks
|
| Krajcik | Nick Chubb | 14.5% | 1509.67 | 13 weeks |
| Kev | Christian McCaffrey | 22.0% | 1672.24 | 13 weeks
|
| Adam | Deshaun Watson | 16.3% | 1670.86 | 13 weeks
|
| Niz | Austin Ekeler | 14.5% | 1651.65 | 13 weeks
|
| Josh | Mike Evans | 14.2% | 1583.76 | |
| Fischer | Lamar Jackson | 20.8% | 1632.68 | 13 weeks |
| Nevans | Michael Thomas | 16.1% | 1791.01 | 13 weeks
|
| Big Hut | Matt Ryan | 12.3% | 1720.74 | 13 weeks |
| Martin | Dalvin Cook | 18.0% | 1551.10 | |
| Joe Shore | Dak Prescott | 17.5% | 1548.77 | |
| Horgan | Patrick Mahomes | 12.8% | 1760.43 | 13 weeks
|
Opponent's Final Boss
| Manager | Leading opponent | Damage | Leader encounters | Receipts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | Tyler Lockett | 298.61 | 1 | |
| Miller | Christian McCaffrey | 256.38 | 1 | |
| Demich | Jimmy Garoppolo | 116.96 | 1 | |
| Krajcik | Jarvis Landry | 152.04 | 1 | |
| Kev | Matt Ryan | 204.59 | 1 | |
| Adam | Patrick Mahomes | 92.21 | 1 | |
| Niz | Rams | 116.02 | 1 | |
| Josh | Ezekiel Elliott | 258.55 | 1 | |
| Fischer | Christian McCaffrey | 365.84 | 1 | |
| Nevans | Kirk Cousins | 102.30 | 1 | |
| Big Hut | Robert Woods | 28.08 | 1 | |
| Martin | Jonathan Williams | 26.83 | 1 | |
| Joe Shore | Aaron Jones Sr. | 165.49 | 1 | |
| Horgan | Christian McCaffrey | 133.35 | 1 |
Postseason scorecards
Actual participants only. These scores do not enter regular-season luck.