2019 week 15 · Luck Factor

Consolation

Dec 10 – 16, 2019

j-mart

167.27

Demich

105.76

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.40 points left. Optimal 185.67 vs. actual 167.27.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	19.34	Russell Wilson	19.34
WR	Davante Adams	25.30	Davante Adams	25.30
WR	DK Metcalf	11.60	DK Metcalf	11.60
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	33.00	Ezekiel Elliott	33.00
RB	Ronald Jones	5.90	Tony Pollard	24.30
TE	George Kittle	28.40	George Kittle	28.40
W/R/T	Larry Fitzgerald	7.20	Christian Kirk	10.10
W/R/T	Christian Kirk	10.10	Larry Fitzgerald	7.20
K	Jake Elliott	6.00	Jake Elliott	6.00
DEF	Patriots	20.43	Patriots	20.43

Carried by One Guy: Ezekiel Elliott, 33.00 points (19.7% of positive starter points).

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.54 points left. Optimal 122.30 vs. actual 105.76.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	16.36	Kyler Murray	16.36
WR	Kenny Golladay	7.40	Corey Davis	8.70
WR	Calvin Ridley	0.00	Kenny Golladay	7.40
RB	Melvin Gordon III	7.40	Melvin Gordon III	7.40
RB	Joe Mixon	20.60	Joe Mixon	20.60
TE	Travis Kelce	27.20	Travis Kelce	27.20
W/R/T	Latavius Murray	6.90	Latavius Murray	6.90
W/R/T	Corey Davis	8.70	Jason Witten	13.60
K	Austin Seibert	7.00	Austin Seibert	7.00
DEF	Cowboys	4.20	Seahawks	7.14

Carried by One Guy: Travis Kelce, 27.20 points (25.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Consolation

Dec 10 – 16, 2019

Miller

169.69

Krajcik

109.91

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 28.24 points left. Optimal 197.93 vs. actual 169.69.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	14.42	Josh Allen	16.36
WR	Adam Thielen	6.00	John Brown	16.90
WR	John Brown	16.90	Curtis Samuel	16.40
RB	Kenyan Drake	41.60	Kenyan Drake	41.60
RB	Alvin Kamara	13.90	Alvin Kamara	13.90
TE	Dallas Goedert	10.50	Dallas Goedert	10.50
W/R/T	Josh Jacobs	12.90	Anthony Miller	28.80
W/R/T	Miles Sanders	37.20	Miles Sanders	37.20
K	Wil Lutz	9.00	Wil Lutz	9.00
DEF	Jets	7.27	Jets	7.27

Carried by One Guy: Kenyan Drake, 41.60 points (24.5% of positive starter points).

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 19.54 points left. Optimal 129.45 vs. actual 109.91.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	12.92	Jared Goff	17.56
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	14.60	Odell Beckham Jr.	14.60
WR	Cooper Kupp	16.10	Cooper Kupp	16.10
RB	LeSean McCoy	1.60	Nick Chubb	25.80
RB	Nick Chubb	25.80	LeSean McCoy	1.60
TE	Kyle Rudolph	7.80	Kyle Rudolph	7.80
W/R/T	Will Fuller V	11.10	Robbie Chosen	12.60
W/R/T	Robbie Chosen	12.60	Terry McLaurin	26.00
K	Justin Tucker	3.00	Justin Tucker	3.00
DEF	Raiders	4.39	Raiders	4.39

Carried by One Guy: Nick Chubb, 25.80 points (23.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Consolation

Dec 10 – 16, 2019

Adam

117.81

Josh

42.03

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 23.18 points left. Optimal 140.99 vs. actual 117.81.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Deshaun Watson	16.92	Deshaun Watson	16.92
WR	Courtland Sutton	11.90	Kenny Stills	18.50
WR	Russell Gage Jr.	8.30	Courtland Sutton	11.90
RB	James White	15.20	James White	15.20
RB	Raheem Mostert	10.52	Raheem Mostert	10.52
TE	Mark Andrews	15.20	Mark Andrews	15.20
W/R/T	Amari Cooper	2.90	Tarik Cohen	15.88
W/R/T	James Washington	13.30	James Washington	13.30
K	Chris Boswell	5.00	Chris Boswell	5.00
DEF	Bills	18.57	Bills	18.57

Carried by One Guy: Bills, 18.57 points (15.8% of positive starter points).

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 25.70 points left. Optimal 67.73 vs. actual 42.03.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Baker Mayfield	16.98	Baker Mayfield	16.98
WR	Mike Evans	0.00	Robert Woods	5.70
WR	Tyler Boyd	5.60	Tyler Boyd	5.60
RB	Phillip Lindsay	3.20	Le'Veon Bell	10.80
RB	Alexander Mattison	0.00	Phillip Lindsay	3.20
TE	Ryan Griffin	0.00	Cameron Brate	6.30
W/R/T	Robert Woods	5.70	O.J. Howard	8.60
W/R/T	Jaylen Samuels	1.40	Jaylen Samuels	1.40
K	Jason Myers	5.00	Jason Myers	5.00
DEF	49ers	4.15	49ers	4.15

Carried by One Guy: Baker Mayfield, 16.98 points (40.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Playoff

Dec 10 – 16, 2019

Niz

139.24

Nevans

138.33

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.78 points left. Optimal 149.02 vs. actual 139.24.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	30.28	Drew Brees	30.28
WR	Brandin Cooks	8.60	Brandin Cooks	8.60
WR	DeVante Parker	23.20	DeVante Parker	23.20
RB	Todd Gurley	20.80	Todd Gurley	20.80
RB	Derrick Henry	8.60	Derrick Henry	8.60
TE	Jack Doyle	4.10	Jack Doyle	4.10
W/R/T	Tyreek Hill	23.80	Tyreek Hill	23.80
W/R/T	Austin Ekeler	13.10	Austin Ekeler	13.10
K	Matt Gay	9.00	Matt Gay	9.00
DEF	Browns	-2.24	Texans	7.54

Carried by One Guy: Drew Brees, 30.28 points (21.4% of positive starter points).

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 31.04 points left. Optimal 169.37 vs. actual 138.33.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jimmy Garoppolo	12.60	Carson Wentz	21.54
WR	Jarvis Landry	7.30	Jamison Crowder	27.00
WR	Michael Thomas	32.80	Michael Thomas	32.80
RB	Kareem Hunt	15.60	Kareem Hunt	15.60
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	17.10	Aaron Jones Sr.	17.10
TE	Hunter Henry	2.90	Hunter Henry	2.90
W/R/T	Tyler Lockett	28.00	Tyler Lockett	28.00
W/R/T	Devin Singletary	8.90	Sony Michel	11.30
K	Ka'imi Fairbairn	5.00	Ka'imi Fairbairn	5.00
DEF	Ravens	8.13	Ravens	8.13

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Michael Thomas, 32.80 points (23.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Drew Brees scored 30.28; zeroing that score creates a win.

Playoff

Dec 10 – 16, 2019

Kev

201.54

Big Hut

172.39

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.60 points left. Optimal 212.14 vs. actual 201.54.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ryan Fitzpatrick	20.46	Ryan Fitzpatrick	20.46
WR	Julio Jones	40.40	Julio Jones	40.40
WR	Sterling Shepard	22.10	Sterling Shepard	22.10
RB	Devonta Freeman	7.50	Christian McCaffrey	37.50
RB	Christian McCaffrey	37.50	Adrian Peterson	18.10
TE	Jared Cook	9.40	Jared Cook	9.40
W/R/T	Breshad Perriman	36.60	Breshad Perriman	36.60
W/R/T	Zach Pascal	8.40	Zach Pascal	8.40
K	Jason Sanders	8.00	Jason Sanders	8.00
DEF	Chiefs	11.18	Chiefs	11.18

Carried by One Guy: Julio Jones, 40.40 points (20.0% of positive starter points).

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 27.16 points left. Optimal 199.55 vs. actual 172.39.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ryan Tannehill	24.16	Jameis Winston	34.72
WR	Chris Godwin Jr.	19.10	Tyrell Williams	12.50
WR	Darius Slayton	11.10	Chris Godwin Jr.	19.10
RB	Leonard Fournette	12.30	Leonard Fournette	12.30
RB	Saquon Barkley	32.30	Saquon Barkley	32.30
TE	Tyler Higbee	25.10	Tyler Higbee	25.10
W/R/T	Allen Robinson	21.50	Allen Robinson	21.50
W/R/T	Austin Hooper	5.00	Danny Amendola	20.20
K	Harrison Butker	8.00	Harrison Butker	8.00
DEF	Packers	13.83	Packers	13.83

Carried by One Guy: Saquon Barkley, 32.30 points (18.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Julio Jones scored 40.40; zeroing that score creates a win.

Playoff

Dec 10 – 16, 2019

Martin

104.87

Horgan

116.79

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.24 points left. Optimal 109.11 vs. actual 104.87.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kirk Cousins	11.68	Kirk Cousins	11.68
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	2.90	T.Y. Hilton	6.50
WR	Dede Westbrook	4.26	Hollywood Brown	14.50
RB	Carlos Hyde	18.40	Carlos Hyde	18.40
RB	Dalvin Cook	7.30	Dalvin Cook	7.30
TE	Zach Ertz	17.10	Zach Ertz	17.10
W/R/T	Ian Thomas	4.30	Ian Thomas	4.30
W/R/T	Hollywood Brown	14.50	Darwin Thompson	4.90
K	Joey Slye	8.00	Joey Slye	8.00
DEF	Buccaneers	16.43	Buccaneers	16.43

Carried by One Guy: Carlos Hyde, 18.40 points (17.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Patrick Mahomes scored 24.70; zeroing that score creates a win.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.10 points left. Optimal 133.89 vs. actual 116.79.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	24.70	Patrick Mahomes	24.70
WR	Julian Edelman	2.90	DeAndre Hopkins	19.90
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	19.90	Julian Edelman	2.90
RB	Jamaal Williams	4.30	Jamaal Williams	4.30
RB	Derrius Guice	0.00	Royce Freeman	6.60
TE	Darren Waller	22.20	Darren Waller	22.20
W/R/T	Keenan Allen	18.90	Golden Tate	12.10
W/R/T	Michael Gallup	1.60	Keenan Allen	18.90
K	Dan Bailey	13.00	Dan Bailey	13.00
DEF	Eagles	9.29	Eagles	9.29

Carried by One Guy: Patrick Mahomes, 24.70 points (21.1% of positive starter points).

2019 week 15 matchups

Matchups

Consolation

j-mart lineup

Demich lineup

Consolation

Miller lineup

Krajcik lineup

Consolation

Adam lineup

Josh lineup

Playoff

Niz lineup

Nevans lineup

Playoff

Kev lineup

Big Hut lineup

Playoff

Martin lineup

Horgan lineup