2019 week 13 · Luck Factor

Regular

Nov 26 – Dec 2, 2019

j-mart

108.81

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

147.54

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.90 points left. Optimal 114.71 vs. actual 108.81.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	16.90	Russell Wilson	16.90
WR	Davante Adams	24.40	Davante Adams	24.40
WR	DK Metcalf	11.50	DK Metcalf	11.50
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	20.70	Ezekiel Elliott	20.70
RB	Ronald Jones	0.80	Brian Hill	6.70
TE	George Kittle	3.40	George Kittle	3.40
W/R/T	Larry Fitzgerald	11.60	Christian Kirk	5.30
W/R/T	Christian Kirk	5.30	Larry Fitzgerald	11.60
K	Jake Elliott	13.00	Jake Elliott	13.00
DEF	Patriots	1.21	Patriots	1.21

Carried by One Guy: Davante Adams, 24.40 points (22.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.40 points left. Optimal 164.94 vs. actual 147.54.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	19.50	Patrick Mahomes	19.50
WR	Julian Edelman	23.90	DeAndre Hopkins	15.64
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	15.64	Julian Edelman	23.90
RB	Jamaal Williams	10.70	Jamaal Williams	10.70
RB	Derrius Guice	29.70	Derrius Guice	29.70
TE	Darren Waller	19.00	Darren Waller	19.00
W/R/T	Keenan Allen	18.80	Keenan Allen	18.80
W/R/T	Michael Gallup	9.30	Rashaad Penny	26.70
K	Brett Maher	1.00	Brett Maher	1.00
DEF	Eagles	0.00	Eagles	0.00

Carried by One Guy: Derrius Guice, 29.70 points (20.1% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 26 – Dec 2, 2019

Adam

164.64

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

135.68

Rank 4; -3.5 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 41.08 points left. Optimal 205.72 vs. actual 164.64.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Deshaun Watson	28.86	Deshaun Watson	28.86
WR	Courtland Sutton	23.40	Courtland Sutton	23.40
WR	Russell Gage Jr.	16.20	Russell Gage Jr.	16.20
RB	James White	37.70	James White	37.70
RB	Tarik Cohen	7.42	Raheem Mostert	25.40
TE	Mark Andrews	14.00	Mark Andrews	14.00
W/R/T	Sammy Watkins	0.00	Amari Cooper	16.50
W/R/T	Amari Cooper	16.50	James Washington	23.10
K	Chris Boswell	7.00	Chris Boswell	7.00
DEF	Bills	13.56	Bills	13.56

Carried by One Guy: James White, 37.70 points (22.9% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.42 points left. Optimal 148.10 vs. actual 135.68.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	24.30	Lamar Jackson	24.30
WR	Cole Beasley	25.00	Alshon Jeffery	30.70
WR	Diontae Johnson	4.38	Cole Beasley	25.00
RB	Mark Ingram II	8.20	Mark Ingram II	8.20
RB	Nyheim Miller-Hines	12.64	Nyheim Miller-Hines	12.64
TE	Noah Fant	1.50	Noah Fant	1.50
W/R/T	Alshon Jeffery	30.70	Deebo Samuel Sr.	14.10
W/R/T	Deebo Samuel Sr.	14.10	Patrick Laird	16.80
K	Zane Gonzalez	1.00	Zane Gonzalez	1.00
DEF	Steelers	13.86	Steelers	13.86

Carried by One Guy: Alshon Jeffery, 30.70 points (22.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: James White scored 37.70; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 26 – Dec 2, 2019

Niz

152.27

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Josh

118.21

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 152.27 vs. actual 152.27.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	11.26	Drew Brees	11.26
WR	Marvin Jones Jr.	13.00	Marvin Jones Jr.	13.00
WR	DeVante Parker	36.90	DeVante Parker	36.90
RB	Todd Gurley	18.50	Todd Gurley	18.50
RB	Derrick Henry	25.60	Derrick Henry	25.60
TE	T.J. Hockenson	7.80	T.J. Hockenson	7.80
W/R/T	Tyreek Hill	10.10	Tyreek Hill	10.10
W/R/T	Austin Ekeler	16.70	Austin Ekeler	16.70
K	Matt Gay	7.00	Matt Gay	7.00
DEF	Browns	5.41	Browns	5.41

Carried by One Guy: DeVante Parker, 36.90 points (24.2% of positive starter points).

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.62 points left. Optimal 131.83 vs. actual 118.21.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Baker Mayfield	8.04	Jacoby Brissett	14.66
WR	Mike Evans	9.30	Mike Evans	9.30
WR	Tyler Boyd	16.90	Tyler Boyd	16.90
RB	Le'Veon Bell	10.70	Le'Veon Bell	10.70
RB	Phillip Lindsay	9.20	Phillip Lindsay	9.20
TE	Ryan Griffin	8.00	O.J. Howard	11.10
W/R/T	Robert Woods	32.20	Robert Woods	32.20
W/R/T	Jaylen Samuels	7.40	Alexander Mattison	11.30
K	Jason Myers	11.00	Jason Myers	11.00
DEF	49ers	5.47	49ers	5.47

Carried by One Guy: Robert Woods, 32.20 points (27.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: DeVante Parker scored 36.90; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 26 – Dec 2, 2019

Kev

99.06

Rank 11; +3.5 luck points

Nevans

93.66

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.70 points left. Optimal 110.76 vs. actual 99.06.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Sam Darnold	10.46	Sam Darnold	10.46
WR	Sterling Shepard	13.00	Sterling Shepard	13.00
WR	Auden Tate	10.60	Auden Tate	10.60
RB	Devonta Freeman	10.40	Devonta Freeman	10.40
RB	Christian McCaffrey	17.20	Christian McCaffrey	17.20
TE	Jared Cook	11.50	Jared Cook	11.50
W/R/T	Bo Scarbrough	8.30	Duke Johnson	20.00
W/R/T	Darrel Williams	8.60	Darrel Williams	8.60
K	Younghoe Koo	7.00	Younghoe Koo	7.00
DEF	Chargers	2.00	Chargers	2.00

Carried by One Guy: Christian McCaffrey, 17.20 points (17.4% of positive starter points).

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 21.86 points left. Optimal 115.52 vs. actual 93.66.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Carson Wentz	26.40	Carson Wentz	26.40
WR	Jarvis Landry	13.60	Jarvis Landry	13.60
WR	Michael Thomas	10.80	Michael Thomas	10.80
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	7.10	Aaron Jones Sr.	7.10
RB	Devin Singletary	19.10	Devin Singletary	19.10
TE	Hunter Henry	3.00	Hunter Henry	3.00
W/R/T	Tyler Lockett	0.00	Kareem Hunt	17.50
W/R/T	Jamison Crowder	2.80	Sony Michel	4.50
K	Ka'imi Fairbairn	4.00	Ka'imi Fairbairn	4.00
DEF	Bears	6.86	Ravens	9.52

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Carson Wentz, 26.40 points (28.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Christian McCaffrey scored 17.20; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 26 – Dec 2, 2019

Krajcik

66.93

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

135.13

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 50.76 points left. Optimal 117.69 vs. actual 66.93.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Daniel Jones	8.20	Jared Goff	26.96
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	5.90	Odell Beckham Jr.	5.90
WR	Cooper Kupp	18.50	Cooper Kupp	18.50
RB	Tevin Coleman	2.50	Tevin Coleman	2.50
RB	Nick Chubb	8.90	Nick Chubb	8.90
TE	Jimmy Graham	2.60	Kyle Rudolph	15.00
W/R/T	Will Fuller V	1.80	Vance McDonald	5.10
W/R/T	Terry McLaurin	2.80	Robbie Chosen	19.10
K	Justin Tucker	9.00	Justin Tucker	9.00
DEF	Jaguars	6.73	Jaguars	6.73

Carried by One Guy: Cooper Kupp, 18.50 points (27.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.40 points left. Optimal 143.53 vs. actual 135.13.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	18.58	Matt Ryan	18.58
WR	Tyrell Williams	1.90	Allen Robinson	22.60
WR	Chris Godwin Jr.	9.00	Chris Godwin Jr.	9.00
RB	Leonard Fournette	18.10	Leonard Fournette	18.10
RB	Saquon Barkley	14.50	Saquon Barkley	14.50
TE	Jack Doyle	19.30	Jack Doyle	19.30
W/R/T	Allen Robinson	22.60	Darren Fells	10.30
W/R/T	Darius Slayton	10.40	Darius Slayton	10.40
K	Harrison Butker	10.00	Harrison Butker	10.00
DEF	Packers	10.75	Packers	10.75

Carried by One Guy: Allen Robinson, 22.60 points (16.7% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 26 – Dec 2, 2019

Demich

121.72

Rank 8; +0.5 luck points

Martin

95.67

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 20.60 points left. Optimal 142.32 vs. actual 121.72.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	13.32	Kyler Murray	13.32
WR	Kenny Golladay	27.80	Kenny Golladay	27.80
WR	Calvin Ridley	17.10	Calvin Ridley	17.10
RB	Melvin Gordon III	13.00	Melvin Gordon III	13.00
RB	Joe Mixon	17.00	Joe Mixon	17.00
TE	Travis Kelce	14.00	Travis Kelce	14.00
W/R/T	Randall Cobb	8.30	Randall Cobb	8.30
W/R/T	Latavius Murray	0.20	Jason Witten	18.20
K	Austin Seibert	7.00	Austin Seibert	7.00
DEF	Cowboys	4.00	Seahawks	6.60

Carried by One Guy: Kenny Golladay, 27.80 points (22.8% of positive starter points).

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.20 points left. Optimal 100.87 vs. actual 95.67.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kirk Cousins	17.04	Kirk Cousins	17.04
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	8.10	Emmanuel Sanders	8.10
WR	Dede Westbrook	19.96	Dede Westbrook	19.96
RB	LeSean McCoy	12.00	Dalvin Cook	13.40
RB	Dalvin Cook	13.40	LeSean McCoy	12.00
TE	Greg Olsen	5.20	Greg Olsen	5.20
W/R/T	Zach Ertz	5.40	Zach Ertz	5.40
W/R/T	Hollywood Brown	1.10	Allen Hurns	6.30
K	Joey Slye	3.00	Joey Slye	3.00
DEF	Colts	10.47	Colts	10.47

Carried by One Guy: Dede Westbrook, 19.96 points (20.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Kenny Golladay scored 27.80; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 26 – Dec 2, 2019

Miller

127.26

Rank 7; -0.5 luck points

Joe Shore

133.51

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 31.30 points left. Optimal 158.56 vs. actual 127.26.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	28.12	Aaron Rodgers	28.12
WR	John Brown	10.72	John Brown	10.72
WR	DJ Chark	6.70	Curtis Samuel	16.50
RB	Alvin Kamara	12.40	Alvin Kamara	12.40
RB	Josh Jacobs	12.40	Josh Jacobs	12.40
TE	Dallas Goedert	12.60	Dallas Goedert	12.60
W/R/T	Jonathan Williams	3.50	Anthony Miller	25.00
W/R/T	Miles Sanders	21.50	Miles Sanders	21.50
K	Wil Lutz	16.00	Wil Lutz	16.00
DEF	Jets	3.32	Jets	3.32

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Aaron Rodgers, 28.12 points (22.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Dak Prescott scored 24.70; zeroing that score creates a win.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 22.07 points left. Optimal 155.58 vs. actual 133.51.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	24.70	Dak Prescott	24.70
WR	Stefon Diggs	9.20	Stefon Diggs	9.20
WR	A.J. Brown	7.50	Mike Williams	18.70
RB	Chris Carson	19.90	Chris Carson	19.90
RB	David Montgomery	16.70	David Montgomery	16.70
TE	Jacob Hollister	10.40	Jacob Hollister	10.40
W/R/T	Chris Conley	9.70	Chris Conley	9.70
W/R/T	DJ Moore	19.90	DJ Moore	19.90
K	Greg Zuerlein	9.00	Greg Zuerlein	9.00
DEF	Panthers	6.51	Saints	17.38

Carried by One Guy: Dak Prescott, 24.70 points (18.5% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	6–7	7.692	-3.5	-0.269	2 / 3
Miller	6–7	6.385	-2.0	-0.154	1 / 3
Demich	5–8	5.385	-1.0	-0.077	2 / 2
Krajcik	6–7	5.077	+2.5	+0.192	2 / 1
Kev	8–5	6.923	+2.0	+0.154	3 / 1
Adam	6–7	6.462	+0.5	+0.038	1 / 0
Niz	7–6	6.538	+1.0	+0.077	1 / 1
Josh	6–7	5.923	-2.0	-0.154	1 / 1
Fischer	3–10	6.231	-10.5	-0.808	1 / 4
Nevans	9–4	8.308	-1.0	-0.077	1 / 1
Big Hut	9–4	7.769	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Martin	8–5	5.385	+8.0	+0.615	4 / 0
Joe Shore	4–9	4.538	-1.5	-0.115	0 / 1
Horgan	8–5	8.385	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1

2019 week 13 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Niz lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Nevans lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Cumulative totals through week 13