2019 week 6 · Luck Factor

Regular

Oct 8 – 14, 2019

j-mart

158.78

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Niz

76.54

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.30 points left. Optimal 160.08 vs. actual 158.78.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	28.90	Russell Wilson	28.90
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	12.90	DK Metcalf	11.30
WR	DK Metcalf	11.30	Larry Fitzgerald	12.90
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	28.30	Ezekiel Elliott	28.30
RB	Ronald Jones	7.00	Ronald Jones	7.00
TE	George Kittle	20.30	George Kittle	20.30
W/R/T	Jason Witten	10.70	Tony Pollard	1.30
W/R/T	Paul Richardson	0.00	Jason Witten	10.70
K	Mason Crosby	11.00	Mason Crosby	11.00
DEF	Patriots	28.38	Patriots	28.38

Carried by One Guy: Russell Wilson, 28.90 points (18.2% of positive starter points).

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.70 points left. Optimal 83.24 vs. actual 76.54.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Daniel Jones	5.24	Daniel Jones	5.24
WR	Brandin Cooks	6.20	Brandin Cooks	6.20
WR	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	7.70	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	7.70
RB	Derrick Henry	4.30	Derrick Henry	4.30
RB	Austin Ekeler	5.80	Austin Ekeler	5.80
TE	T.J. Hockenson	6.10	Jordan Akins	6.90
W/R/T	Mohamed Sanu	5.90	DeVante Parker	11.80
W/R/T	Tyreek Hill	25.00	Tyreek Hill	25.00
K	Josh Lambo	5.00	Josh Lambo	5.00
DEF	Texans	5.30	Texans	5.30

Carried by One Guy: Tyreek Hill, 25.00 points (32.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 8 – 14, 2019

Miller

133.84

Rank 7; -0.5 luck points

Adam

156.20

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 133.84 vs. actual 133.84.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	18.32	Aaron Rodgers	18.32
WR	Adam Thielen	17.70	Adam Thielen	17.70
WR	DJ Chark	7.30	DJ Chark	7.30
RB	Alvin Kamara	13.60	Alvin Kamara	13.60
RB	Miles Sanders	18.50	Miles Sanders	18.50
TE	O.J. Howard	5.50	O.J. Howard	5.50
W/R/T	Kenyan Drake	13.30	Kenyan Drake	13.30
W/R/T	Curtis Samuel	23.80	Curtis Samuel	23.80
K	Wil Lutz	7.00	Wil Lutz	7.00
DEF	Rams	8.82	Rams	8.82

Carried by One Guy: Curtis Samuel, 23.80 points (17.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Deshaun Watson scored 29.40; zeroing that score creates a win.

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.40 points left. Optimal 169.60 vs. actual 156.20.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Deshaun Watson	29.40	Deshaun Watson	29.40
WR	Amari Cooper	1.30	Courtland Sutton	11.60
WR	Courtland Sutton	11.60	Auden Tate	14.10
RB	James White	13.50	James White	13.50
RB	Kerryon Johnson	14.10	Kerryon Johnson	14.10
TE	Mark Andrews	13.90	Mark Andrews	13.90
W/R/T	David Johnson	28.20	David Johnson	28.20
W/R/T	Auden Tate	14.10	Chase Edmonds	14.70
K	Jake Elliott	9.00	Jake Elliott	9.00
DEF	Panthers	21.10	Panthers	21.10

Carried by One Guy: Deshaun Watson, 29.40 points (18.8% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 8 – 14, 2019

Demich

113.68

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Kev

144.39

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.90 points left. Optimal 120.58 vs. actual 113.68.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	30.80	Kyler Murray	30.80
WR	Calvin Ridley	14.80	Calvin Ridley	14.80
WR	Jakobi Meyers	9.40	Jakobi Meyers	9.40
RB	Melvin Gordon III	7.80	Melvin Gordon III	7.80
RB	Joe Mixon	5.90	Joe Mixon	5.90
TE	Travis Kelce	9.80	Travis Kelce	9.80
W/R/T	Chris Thompson	4.00	Latavius Murray	10.90
W/R/T	Kenny Golladay	19.10	Kenny Golladay	19.10
K	Dan Bailey	8.00	Dan Bailey	8.00
DEF	Cowboys	4.08	Cowboys	4.08

Carried by One Guy: Kyler Murray, 30.80 points (27.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.82 points left. Optimal 149.21 vs. actual 144.39.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	23.96	Tom Brady	23.96
WR	Julio Jones	20.80	Julio Jones	20.80
WR	Deebo Samuel Sr.	4.90	Deebo Samuel Sr.	4.90
RB	Devonta Freeman	26.80	Devonta Freeman	26.80
RB	Christian McCaffrey	21.70	Christian McCaffrey	21.70
TE	Jared Cook	12.70	Jared Cook	12.70
W/R/T	Duke Johnson	13.40	Duke Johnson	13.40
W/R/T	Ito Smith	1.78	Corey Davis	6.60
K	Robbie Gould	7.00	Robbie Gould	7.00
DEF	Commanders	11.35	Commanders	11.35

Carried by One Guy: Devonta Freeman, 26.80 points (18.6% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 8 – 14, 2019

Nevans

116.04

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

164.80

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 26.50 points left. Optimal 142.54 vs. actual 116.04.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Carson Wentz	22.54	Carson Wentz	22.54
WR	Tyler Lockett	13.22	Tyler Lockett	13.22
WR	Michael Thomas	16.90	Michael Thomas	16.90
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	8.00	Aaron Jones Sr.	8.00
RB	Sony Michel	13.30	Sony Michel	13.30
TE	Tyler Higbee	5.50	Hunter Henry	32.00
W/R/T	Jarvis Landry	6.70	Jarvis Landry	6.70
W/R/T	Jamison Crowder	15.80	Jamison Crowder	15.80
K	Matt Bryant	8.00	Matt Bryant	8.00
DEF	Ravens	6.08	Ravens	6.08

Carried by One Guy: Carson Wentz, 22.54 points (19.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 164.80 vs. actual 164.80.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	32.94	Matt Ryan	32.94
WR	Chris Godwin Jr.	27.10	Chris Godwin Jr.	27.10
WR	DJ Moore	15.60	DJ Moore	15.60
RB	Damien Williams	9.00	Damien Williams	9.00
RB	Leonard Fournette	17.80	Leonard Fournette	17.80
TE	Austin Hooper	27.70	Austin Hooper	27.70
W/R/T	Adrian Peterson	17.60	Will Dissly	0.00
W/R/T	Will Dissly	0.00	Adrian Peterson	17.60
K	Harrison Butker	7.00	Harrison Butker	7.00
DEF	Vikings	10.06	Vikings	10.06

Carried by One Guy: Matt Ryan, 32.94 points (20.0% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 8 – 14, 2019

Fischer

139.73

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Martin

96.84

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 139.73 vs. actual 139.73.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	32.64	Lamar Jackson	32.64
WR	Alshon Jeffery	23.60	Alshon Jeffery	23.60
WR	Byron Pringle	4.40	Byron Pringle	4.40
RB	Mark Ingram II	15.40	Mark Ingram II	15.40
RB	James Conner	30.90	James Conner	30.90
TE	Noah Fant	3.60	Noah Fant	3.60
W/R/T	Geronimo Allison	7.00	Geronimo Allison	7.00
W/R/T	Mecole Hardman Jr.	9.32	Mecole Hardman Jr.	9.32
K	Zane Gonzalez	9.00	Zane Gonzalez	9.00
DEF	Packers	3.87	Packers	3.87

Carried by One Guy: Lamar Jackson, 32.64 points (23.4% of positive starter points).

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.20 points left. Optimal 106.04 vs. actual 96.84.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Philip Rivers	16.80	Philip Rivers	16.80
WR	JuJu Smith-Schuster	1.70	JuJu Smith-Schuster	1.70
WR	Dede Westbrook	8.30	Dede Westbrook	8.30
RB	Carlos Hyde	20.00	Carlos Hyde	20.00
RB	Dalvin Cook	13.40	Dalvin Cook	13.40
TE	Zach Ertz	7.40	Zach Ertz	7.40
W/R/T	Greg Olsen	9.20	Demaryius Thomas	10.20
W/R/T	Emmanuel Sanders	1.00	Greg Olsen	9.20
K	Joey Slye	14.00	Joey Slye	14.00
DEF	Chargers	5.04	Chargers	5.04

Carried by One Guy: Carlos Hyde, 20.00 points (20.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 8 – 14, 2019

Josh

102.42

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

134.15

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.24 points left. Optimal 105.66 vs. actual 102.42.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Baker Mayfield	19.46	Baker Mayfield	19.46
WR	Robert Woods	7.60	Robert Woods	7.60
WR	Mike Evans	20.60	Mike Evans	20.60
RB	Le'Veon Bell	12.30	Le'Veon Bell	12.30
RB	Phillip Lindsay	15.50	Phillip Lindsay	15.50
TE	Geoff Swaim	1.50	Geoff Swaim	1.50
W/R/T	Tyler Boyd	4.00	Darrel Williams	6.20
W/R/T	Jordan Howard	4.90	Preston Williams	5.94
K	Jason Myers	6.00	Jason Myers	6.00
DEF	49ers	10.56	49ers	10.56

Carried by One Guy: Mike Evans, 20.60 points (20.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Stefon Diggs scored 45.50; zeroing that score creates a win.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.70 points left. Optimal 138.85 vs. actual 134.15.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	18.22	Dak Prescott	18.22
WR	Stefon Diggs	45.50	Stefon Diggs	45.50
WR	Mike Williams	12.20	Mike Williams	12.20
RB	Malcolm Brown	4.00	Malcolm Brown	4.00
RB	Chris Carson	27.90	Chris Carson	27.90
TE	Jeremy Sprinkle	4.40	Jeremy Sprinkle	4.40
W/R/T	Josh Gordon	1.70	Keke Coutee	7.90
W/R/T	Keke Coutee	7.90	LeSean McCoy	6.40
K	Greg Zuerlein	1.00	Greg Zuerlein	1.00
DEF	Saints	11.33	Saints	11.33

Carried by One Guy: Stefon Diggs, 45.50 points (33.9% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 8 – 14, 2019

Krajcik

130.02

Rank 8; +0.5 luck points

Horgan

107.87

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 23.40 points left. Optimal 153.42 vs. actual 130.02.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jared Goff	1.12	Jared Goff	1.12
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	18.10	Odell Beckham Jr.	18.10
WR	Will Fuller V	9.40	Will Fuller V	9.40
RB	Tevin Coleman	14.10	Tevin Coleman	14.10
RB	Nick Chubb	30.90	Nick Chubb	30.90
TE	Jimmy Graham	3.70	Delanie Walker	7.30
W/R/T	Cooper Kupp	5.70	Robbie Chosen	25.50
W/R/T	Terry McLaurin	28.00	Terry McLaurin	28.00
K	Justin Tucker	12.00	Justin Tucker	12.00
DEF	Jaguars	7.00	Jaguars	7.00

Carried by One Guy: Nick Chubb, 30.90 points (23.8% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 35.88 points left. Optimal 143.75 vs. actual 107.87.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	18.82	Patrick Mahomes	18.82
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	16.50	Golden Tate	24.20
WR	Keenan Allen	5.30	DeAndre Hopkins	16.50
RB	Matt Breida	10.30	Matt Breida	10.30
RB	Royce Freeman	12.60	Royce Freeman	12.60
TE	Gerald Everett	2.90	Gerald Everett	2.90
W/R/T	Julian Edelman	22.30	Jamaal Williams	25.78
W/R/T	Michael Gallup	8.80	Julian Edelman	22.30
K	Ka'imi Fairbairn	5.00	Ka'imi Fairbairn	5.00
DEF	Titans	5.35	Titans	5.35

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Julian Edelman, 22.30 points (20.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Nick Chubb scored 30.90; zeroing that score creates a win.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	3–3	4.308	-2.0	-0.154	0 / 2
Miller	2–4	2.462	-1.5	-0.115	1 / 2
Demich	1–5	1.538	+2.0	+0.154	1 / 1
Krajcik	4–2	3.308	0.0	0.000	1 / 1
Kev	4–2	3.846	-2.0	-0.154	1 / 1
Adam	4–2	4.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Niz	3–3	2.077	+4.5	+0.346	1 / 0
Josh	2–4	2.462	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1
Fischer	1–5	2.846	-3.5	-0.269	0 / 1
Nevans	4–2	3.462	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 0
Big Hut	5–1	4.385	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Martin	4–2	2.231	+6.5	+0.500	3 / 0
Joe Shore	2–4	1.846	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Horgan	3–3	3.231	0.0	0.000	0 / 0

2019 week 6 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Niz lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Nevans lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 6