2019 week 4 · Luck Factor

Regular

Sep 24 – 30, 2019

j-mart

125.65

Rank 6; -1.5 luck points

Kev

144.38

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 20.20 points left. Optimal 145.85 vs. actual 125.65.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	14.30	Russell Wilson	14.30
WR	Davante Adams	30.00	Davante Adams	30.00
WR	DK Metcalf	1.60	Christian Kirk	8.32
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	16.50	Ezekiel Elliott	16.50
RB	Marlon Mack	3.90	Ronald Jones	15.20
TE	Hayden Hurst	5.90	Hayden Hurst	5.90
W/R/T	Larry Fitzgerald	9.70	Nyheim Miller-Hines	10.50
W/R/T	Christian Kirk	8.32	Larry Fitzgerald	9.70
K	Mason Crosby	9.00	Mason Crosby	9.00
DEF	Patriots	26.43	Patriots	26.43

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Davante Adams, 30.00 points (23.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Christian McCaffrey scored 33.90; zeroing that score creates a win.

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.60 points left. Optimal 147.98 vs. actual 144.38.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	3.70	Tom Brady	3.70
WR	Sterling Shepard	16.90	Dontrelle Inman	12.60
WR	Demarcus Robinson	7.50	Sterling Shepard	16.90
RB	Leonard Fournette	28.50	Leonard Fournette	28.50
RB	Christian McCaffrey	33.90	Christian McCaffrey	33.90
TE	Jared Cook	5.10	Jared Cook	5.10
W/R/T	Dontrelle Inman	12.60	Devonta Freeman	18.00
W/R/T	Devonta Freeman	18.00	Ito Smith	11.10
K	Stephen Gostkowski	2.00	Stephen Gostkowski	2.00
DEF	Seahawks	16.18	Seahawks	16.18

Carried by One Guy: Christian McCaffrey, 33.90 points (23.5% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 24 – 30, 2019

Miller

106.64

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik

121.73

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.46 points left. Optimal 124.10 vs. actual 106.64.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	27.48	Aaron Rodgers	27.48
WR	Adam Thielen	2.60	John Brown	11.90
WR	Curtis Samuel	6.30	DJ Chark	8.40
RB	Alvin Kamara	11.90	Alvin Kamara	11.90
RB	Josh Jacobs	12.80	Josh Jacobs	12.80
TE	Jack Doyle	12.20	Jack Doyle	12.20
W/R/T	DJ Chark	8.40	Kenyan Drake	10.30
W/R/T	Miles Sanders	8.74	Frank Gore	12.90
K	Wil Lutz	11.00	Wil Lutz	11.00
DEF	Rams	5.22	Rams	5.22

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Aaron Rodgers, 27.48 points (25.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Nick Chubb scored 41.30; zeroing that score creates a win.

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.70 points left. Optimal 138.43 vs. actual 121.73.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jared Goff	22.68	Jared Goff	22.68
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	4.00	Odell Beckham Jr.	4.00
WR	Will Fuller V	5.30	Will Fuller V	5.30
RB	Nick Chubb	41.30	Nick Chubb	41.30
RB	Gus Edwards	4.60	Gus Edwards	4.60
TE	Delanie Walker	1.40	Jimmy Graham	18.10
W/R/T	Cooper Kupp	28.90	Cooper Kupp	28.90
W/R/T	Parris Campbell	5.50	Parris Campbell	5.50
K	Justin Tucker	6.00	Justin Tucker	6.00
DEF	Jaguars	2.05	Jaguars	2.05

Carried by One Guy: Nick Chubb, 41.30 points (33.9% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 24 – 30, 2019

Fischer

114.71

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Nevans

132.42

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 27.92 points left. Optimal 142.63 vs. actual 114.71.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	24.48	Lamar Jackson	24.48
WR	Devin Smith	0.00	Cole Beasley	14.50
WR	Mecole Hardman Jr.	1.48	Geronimo Allison	14.90
RB	Mark Ingram II	8.10	Mark Ingram II	8.10
RB	James Conner	26.50	James Conner	26.50
TE	Evan Engram	9.40	Evan Engram	9.40
W/R/T	James White	13.80	James White	13.80
W/R/T	Wayne Gallman	27.80	Wayne Gallman	27.80
K	Zane Gonzalez	4.00	Zane Gonzalez	4.00
DEF	Ravens	-0.85	Ravens	-0.85

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Wayne Gallman, 27.80 points (24.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jarvis Landry scored 26.70; zeroing that score creates a win.

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.10 points left. Optimal 140.52 vs. actual 132.42.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Carson Wentz	19.70	Carson Wentz	19.70
WR	Tyler Lockett	9.46	Tyler Lockett	9.46
WR	Michael Thomas	18.50	Michael Thomas	18.50
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	17.80	Aaron Jones Sr.	17.80
RB	Sony Michel	6.30	Sony Michel	6.30
TE	Eric Ebron	11.80	Eric Ebron	11.80
W/R/T	Jarvis Landry	26.70	Jarvis Landry	26.70
W/R/T	Nelson Agholor	0.00	Tyler Higbee	8.10
K	Matt Bryant	5.00	Matt Bryant	5.00
DEF	Bears	17.16	Bears	17.16

Carried by One Guy: Jarvis Landry, 26.70 points (20.2% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 24 – 30, 2019

Josh

133.23

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

117.40

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 27.10 points left. Optimal 160.33 vs. actual 133.23.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jacoby Brissett	22.50	Jacoby Brissett	22.50
WR	Robert Woods	31.40	Robert Woods	31.40
WR	Mike Evans	18.90	Mike Evans	18.90
RB	Phillip Lindsay	7.00	Jordan Howard	32.50
RB	Darrel Williams	18.60	Darrel Williams	18.60
TE	Vernon Davis	1.50	Vernon Davis	1.50
W/R/T	Tyler Boyd	6.30	Peyton Barber	7.90
W/R/T	Preston Williams	8.60	Preston Williams	8.60
K	Jason Myers	8.00	Jason Myers	8.00
DEF	Browns	10.43	Browns	10.43

Carried by One Guy: Robert Woods, 31.40 points (23.6% of positive starter points).

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 62.30 points left. Optimal 179.70 vs. actual 117.40.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	17.68	Matthew Stafford	23.44
WR	Julio Jones	9.30	Julio Jones	9.30
WR	Allen Robinson	14.70	Allen Robinson	14.70
RB	Adrian Peterson	2.80	Jaylen Samuels	23.54
RB	David Montgomery	9.70	David Montgomery	9.70
TE	Will Dissly	18.70	Will Dissly	18.70
W/R/T	Austin Hooper	24.00	Austin Hooper	24.00
W/R/T	DJ Moore	7.40	Chris Godwin Jr.	43.20
K	Harrison Butker	10.00	Harrison Butker	10.00
DEF	Vikings	3.12	Vikings	3.12

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Austin Hooper, 24.00 points (20.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Robert Woods scored 31.40; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 24 – 30, 2019

Niz

141.68

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Martin

119.03

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.74 points left. Optimal 158.42 vs. actual 141.68.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Daniel Jones	12.30	Daniel Jones	12.30
WR	Brandin Cooks	13.10	Mohamed Sanu	18.14
WR	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	7.70	Brandin Cooks	13.10
RB	Todd Gurley	26.00	Todd Gurley	26.00
RB	Austin Ekeler	29.20	Austin Ekeler	29.20
TE	T.J. Hockenson	11.70	T.J. Hockenson	11.70
W/R/T	Marvin Jones Jr.	10.70	DeVante Parker	17.00
W/R/T	Derrick Henry	13.80	Derrick Henry	13.80
K	Aldrick Rosas	6.00	Aldrick Rosas	6.00
DEF	Texans	11.18	Texans	11.18

Carried by One Guy: Austin Ekeler, 29.20 points (20.6% of positive starter points).

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.20 points left. Optimal 128.23 vs. actual 119.03.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Philip Rivers	22.40	Philip Rivers	22.40
WR	JuJu Smith-Schuster	4.50	JuJu Smith-Schuster	4.50
WR	Hollywood Brown	6.20	Hollywood Brown	6.20
RB	Carlos Hyde	10.40	Carlos Hyde	10.40
RB	Dalvin Cook	19.00	Dalvin Cook	19.00
TE	Zach Ertz	13.50	Zach Ertz	13.50
W/R/T	Greg Olsen	2.50	Emmanuel Sanders	17.40
W/R/T	Emmanuel Sanders	17.40	Dede Westbrook	11.70
K	Joey Slye	12.00	Joey Slye	12.00
DEF	Chargers	11.13	Chargers	11.13

Carried by One Guy: Philip Rivers, 22.40 points (18.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Austin Ekeler scored 29.20; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 24 – 30, 2019

Adam

140.50

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

117.25

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.72 points left. Optimal 144.22 vs. actual 140.50.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Deshaun Watson	11.60	Deshaun Watson	11.60
WR	Alshon Jeffery	12.80	Alshon Jeffery	12.80
WR	Amari Cooper	9.80	Amari Cooper	9.80
RB	David Johnson	21.90	David Johnson	21.90
RB	Kerryon Johnson	17.70	Kerryon Johnson	17.70
TE	Mark Andrews	13.10	Mark Andrews	13.10
W/R/T	Sammy Watkins	6.40	Tarik Cohen	10.12
W/R/T	Courtland Sutton	24.20	Courtland Sutton	24.20
K	Jake Elliott	4.00	Jake Elliott	4.00
DEF	Steelers	19.00	Steelers	19.00

Carried by One Guy: Courtland Sutton, 24.20 points (17.2% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 117.25 vs. actual 117.25.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	7.62	Dak Prescott	7.62
WR	Stefon Diggs	17.80	Stefon Diggs	17.80
WR	John Ross	6.60	John Ross	6.60
RB	LeSean McCoy	16.90	Chris Carson	20.50
RB	Chris Carson	20.50	LeSean McCoy	16.90
TE	Noah Fant	11.10	Noah Fant	11.10
W/R/T	Josh Gordon	7.60	Josh Gordon	7.60
W/R/T	Tyrell Williams	12.60	Tyrell Williams	12.60
K	Greg Zuerlein	13.00	Greg Zuerlein	13.00
DEF	Colts	3.53	Colts	3.53

Carried by One Guy: Chris Carson, 20.50 points (17.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Courtland Sutton scored 24.20; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 24 – 30, 2019

Demich

104.46

Rank 13; +5.5 luck points

Horgan

73.05

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.10 points left. Optimal 107.56 vs. actual 104.46.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	16.34	Kyler Murray	16.34
WR	Kenny Golladay	23.70	Kenny Golladay	23.70
WR	Calvin Ridley	6.20	Calvin Ridley	6.20
RB	Chris Thompson	10.00	Chris Thompson	10.00
RB	Joe Mixon	10.30	Joe Mixon	10.30
TE	Travis Kelce	15.50	Travis Kelce	15.50
W/R/T	Randall Cobb	7.38	Randall Cobb	7.38
W/R/T	Phillip Dorsett II	3.90	Jason Witten	7.00
K	Dan Bailey	0.00	Dan Bailey	0.00
DEF	Cowboys	11.14	Cowboys	11.14

Carried by One Guy: Kenny Golladay, 23.70 points (22.7% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.30 points left. Optimal 86.35 vs. actual 73.05.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	20.00	Patrick Mahomes	20.00
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	7.10	DeAndre Hopkins	7.10
WR	Keenan Allen	9.80	Keenan Allen	9.80
RB	Jamaal Williams	1.00	Jamaal Williams	1.00
RB	Royce Freeman	9.00	Royce Freeman	9.00
TE	Darren Waller	12.30	Darren Waller	12.30
W/R/T	Julian Edelman	7.00	Diontae Johnson	17.70
W/R/T	Paul Richardson	4.40	Julian Edelman	7.00
K	Ka'imi Fairbairn	4.00	Ka'imi Fairbairn	4.00
DEF	Packers	-1.55	Packers	-1.55

Carried by One Guy: Patrick Mahomes, 20.00 points (26.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	2–2	2.846	-1.5	-0.115	0 / 1
Miller	2–2	1.231	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 0
Demich	1–3	1.154	+2.0	+0.154	1 / 1
Krajcik	2–2	2.077	-0.5	-0.038	0 / 1
Kev	2–2	2.154	-2.0	-0.154	1 / 1
Adam	2–2	2.154	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Niz	2–2	1.923	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Josh	2–2	2.000	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1
Fischer	0–4	1.923	-3.5	-0.269	0 / 1
Nevans	3–1	2.231	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 0
Big Hut	3–1	2.769	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Martin	3–1	1.769	+5.0	+0.385	2 / 0
Joe Shore	1–3	1.231	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Horgan	3–1	2.538	0.0	0.000	0 / 0

2019 week 4 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Krajcik lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

Nevans lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Niz lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 4