2019 week 3 · Luck Factor

Regular

Sep 17 – 23, 2019

j-mart

158.38

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik

142.53

Rank 7; -0.5 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.60 points left. Optimal 176.98 vs. actual 158.38.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	43.34	Russell Wilson	43.34
WR	Davante Adams	9.60	Christian Kirk	16.30
WR	DK Metcalf	8.70	Larry Fitzgerald	14.60
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	17.90	Ezekiel Elliott	17.90
RB	Marlon Mack	16.80	Marlon Mack	16.80
TE	George Kittle	11.70	George Kittle	11.70
W/R/T	Larry Fitzgerald	14.60	Ronald Jones	13.10
W/R/T	Christian Kirk	16.30	Tony Pollard	23.80
K	Robbie Gould	5.00	Robbie Gould	5.00
DEF	Patriots	14.44	Patriots	14.44

Carried by One Guy: Russell Wilson, 43.34 points (27.4% of positive starter points).

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.00 points left. Optimal 146.53 vs. actual 142.53.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jared Goff	14.12	Jared Goff	14.12
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	11.60	Odell Beckham Jr.	11.60
WR	Will Fuller V	10.10	Will Fuller V	10.10
RB	Dion Lewis	3.00	Nick Chubb	17.10
RB	Nick Chubb	17.10	Justin Jackson	7.00
TE	Delanie Walker	13.40	Delanie Walker	13.40
W/R/T	Cooper Kupp	35.10	Cooper Kupp	35.10
W/R/T	Terry McLaurin	19.00	Terry McLaurin	19.00
K	Justin Tucker	4.00	Justin Tucker	4.00
DEF	Jaguars	15.11	Jaguars	15.11

Carried by One Guy: Cooper Kupp, 35.10 points (24.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Russell Wilson scored 43.34; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 17 – 23, 2019

Miller

136.22

Rank 9; +1.5 luck points

Demich

117.15

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.38 points left. Optimal 153.60 vs. actual 136.22.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	18.32	Josh Allen	18.32
WR	Adam Thielen	20.60	Adam Thielen	20.60
WR	John Brown	9.50	DJ Chark	17.60
RB	Alvin Kamara	37.10	Alvin Kamara	37.10
RB	Josh Jacobs	4.40	Miles Sanders	13.68
TE	Kyle Rudolph	2.10	Kyle Rudolph	2.10
W/R/T	Frank Gore	16.90	Curtis Samuel	16.30
W/R/T	Curtis Samuel	16.30	Frank Gore	16.90
K	Wil Lutz	2.00	Wil Lutz	2.00
DEF	Rams	9.00	Rams	9.00

Carried by One Guy: Alvin Kamara, 37.10 points (27.2% of positive starter points).

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.10 points left. Optimal 132.25 vs. actual 117.15.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	17.82	Kyler Murray	17.82
WR	Kenny Golladay	3.70	Randall Cobb	4.30
WR	Calvin Ridley	1.60	Dante Pettis	12.00
RB	Chris Thompson	14.80	Chris Thompson	14.80
RB	Joe Mixon	17.40	Joe Mixon	17.40
TE	Travis Kelce	15.90	Travis Kelce	15.90
W/R/T	Randall Cobb	4.30	Phillip Dorsett II	18.50
W/R/T	Phillip Dorsett II	18.50	Jason Witten	8.40
K	Dan Bailey	11.00	Dan Bailey	11.00
DEF	Cowboys	12.13	Cowboys	12.13

Carried by One Guy: Phillip Dorsett II, 18.50 points (15.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Alvin Kamara scored 37.10; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 17 – 23, 2019

Josh

144.72

Rank 5; -2.5 luck points

Nevans

164.49

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.70 points left. Optimal 148.42 vs. actual 144.72.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Baker Mayfield	9.70	Baker Mayfield	9.70
WR	Robert Woods	8.80	Robert Woods	8.80
WR	Mike Evans	47.00	Mike Evans	47.00
RB	Le'Veon Bell	10.30	Le'Veon Bell	10.30
RB	Phillip Lindsay	29.00	Phillip Lindsay	29.00
TE	Gerald Everett	3.50	Vernon Davis	5.00
W/R/T	Tyler Boyd	12.80	Tyler Boyd	12.80
W/R/T	Peyton Barber	7.50	Jordan Howard	9.70
K	Austin Seibert	6.00	Austin Seibert	6.00
DEF	Browns	10.12	Browns	10.12

Carried by One Guy: Mike Evans, 47.00 points (32.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Tyler Lockett scored 35.58; zeroing that score creates a win.

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 164.49 vs. actual 164.49.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Carson Wentz	21.66	Carson Wentz	21.66
WR	Tyler Lockett	35.58	Tyler Lockett	35.58
WR	Michael Thomas	16.40	Michael Thomas	16.40
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	15.30	Aaron Jones Sr.	15.30
RB	Sony Michel	7.10	Sony Michel	7.10
TE	Eric Ebron	7.70	Eric Ebron	7.70
W/R/T	Jarvis Landry	9.20	Jarvis Landry	9.20
W/R/T	Nelson Agholor	23.00	Nelson Agholor	23.00
K	Matt Bryant	6.00	Matt Bryant	6.00
DEF	Bears	22.55	Bears	22.55

Carried by One Guy: Tyler Lockett, 35.58 points (21.6% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 17 – 23, 2019

Niz

116.62

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

143.22

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.60 points left. Optimal 134.22 vs. actual 116.62.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jimmy Garoppolo	9.38	Jimmy Garoppolo	9.38
WR	Mohamed Sanu	13.70	Mohamed Sanu	13.70
WR	Brandin Cooks	22.00	Brandin Cooks	22.00
RB	Todd Gurley	4.30	Derrick Henry	11.60
RB	Austin Ekeler	15.10	Austin Ekeler	15.10
TE	T.J. Hockenson	1.10	T.J. Hockenson	1.10
W/R/T	Marvin Jones Jr.	24.10	Marvin Jones Jr.	24.10
W/R/T	Derrick Henry	11.60	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	21.90
K	Aldrick Rosas	6.00	Aldrick Rosas	6.00
DEF	Texans	9.34	Texans	9.34

Carried by One Guy: Marvin Jones Jr., 24.10 points (20.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Julio Jones scored 28.80; zeroing that score creates a win.

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.20 points left. Optimal 154.42 vs. actual 143.22.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	24.46	Matt Ryan	24.46
WR	Julio Jones	28.80	Julio Jones	28.80
WR	Chris Godwin Jr.	7.00	Allen Robinson	12.00
RB	Adrian Peterson	4.40	David Montgomery	11.10
RB	David Montgomery	11.10	Adrian Peterson	4.40
TE	Austin Hooper	24.60	Austin Hooper	24.60
W/R/T	Allen Robinson	12.00	DJ Moore	13.40
W/R/T	DJ Moore	13.40	Will Dissly	18.20
K	Harrison Butker	9.00	Harrison Butker	9.00
DEF	Vikings	8.46	Vikings	8.46

Carried by One Guy: Julio Jones, 28.80 points (20.1% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 17 – 23, 2019

Adam

116.43

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Martin

131.82

Rank 10; +2.5 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 22.60 points left. Optimal 139.03 vs. actual 116.43.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Deshaun Watson	27.84	Deshaun Watson	27.84
WR	Sammy Watkins	11.40	Sammy Watkins	11.40
WR	Amari Cooper	26.80	Amari Cooper	26.80
RB	David Johnson	18.50	David Johnson	18.50
RB	Kerryon Johnson	11.30	Kerryon Johnson	11.30
TE	Mark Andrews	4.50	Mark Andrews	4.50
W/R/T	Vance McDonald	2.00	Kenny Stills	12.90
W/R/T	J.J. Arcega-Whiteside	2.00	Courtland Sutton	13.70
K	Jake Elliott	5.00	Jake Elliott	5.00
DEF	Buccaneers	7.09	Buccaneers	7.09

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Deshaun Watson, 27.84 points (23.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jameis Winston scored 27.50; zeroing that score creates a win.

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 25.82 points left. Optimal 157.64 vs. actual 131.82.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jameis Winston	27.50	Jameis Winston	27.50
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	3.00	JuJu Smith-Schuster	17.10
WR	JuJu Smith-Schuster	17.10	Dede Westbrook	10.22
RB	Carlos Hyde	7.90	Carlos Hyde	7.90
RB	Dalvin Cook	26.30	Dalvin Cook	26.30
TE	Zach Ertz	10.40	Zach Ertz	10.40
W/R/T	T.Y. Hilton	20.50	T.Y. Hilton	20.50
W/R/T	Hollywood Brown	6.90	Greg Olsen	25.50
K	Joey Slye	8.00	Joey Slye	8.00
DEF	Chargers	4.22	Chargers	4.22

Carried by One Guy: Jameis Winston, 27.50 points (20.9% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 17 – 23, 2019

Kev

138.39

Rank 8; +0.5 luck points

Joe Shore

86.55

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.40 points left. Optimal 142.79 vs. actual 138.39.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	22.14	Tom Brady	22.14
WR	Sterling Shepard	29.10	Sterling Shepard	29.10
WR	Deebo Samuel Sr.	7.40	Demarcus Robinson	13.30
RB	Leonard Fournette	15.20	Leonard Fournette	15.20
RB	Christian McCaffrey	29.80	Christian McCaffrey	29.80
TE	Jared Cook	1.70	Jared Cook	1.70
W/R/T	Devonta Freeman	12.50	Devonta Freeman	12.50
W/R/T	Demarcus Robinson	13.30	Alexander Mattison	11.80
K	Stephen Gostkowski	5.00	Stephen Gostkowski	5.00
DEF	Titans	2.25	Titans	2.25

Carried by One Guy: Christian McCaffrey, 29.80 points (21.5% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 49.40 points left. Optimal 135.95 vs. actual 86.55.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	22.54	Dak Prescott	22.54
WR	Stefon Diggs	4.50	Josh Gordon	14.40
WR	Mike Williams	7.50	Tyrell Williams	11.90
RB	Chris Carson	4.00	Rex Burkhead	18.90
RB	Saquon Barkley	7.70	Saquon Barkley	7.70
TE	Noah Fant	4.70	Noah Fant	4.70
W/R/T	Josh Gordon	14.40	Jeff Wilson Jr.	13.80
W/R/T	John Ross	2.20	LeSean McCoy	23.00
K	Greg Zuerlein	10.00	Greg Zuerlein	10.00
DEF	49ers	9.01	49ers	9.01

Carried by One Guy: Dak Prescott, 22.54 points (26.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 17 – 23, 2019

Fischer

149.85

Rank 4; -3.5 luck points

Horgan

179.56

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.90 points left. Optimal 158.75 vs. actual 149.85.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	21.28	Lamar Jackson	21.28
WR	Devin Smith	5.90	Cole Beasley	14.80
WR	Mecole Hardman Jr.	18.40	Mecole Hardman Jr.	18.40
RB	Mark Ingram II	37.50	Mark Ingram II	37.50
RB	James Conner	7.70	James Conner	7.70
TE	Evan Engram	25.30	Evan Engram	25.30
W/R/T	Raheem Mostert	5.90	Raheem Mostert	5.90
W/R/T	O.J. Howard	9.60	O.J. Howard	9.60
K	Brett Maher	6.00	Brett Maher	6.00
DEF	Bills	12.27	Bills	12.27

Carried by One Guy: Mark Ingram II, 37.50 points (25.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Keenan Allen scored 45.60; zeroing that score creates a win.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.80 points left. Optimal 189.36 vs. actual 179.56.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	29.86	Patrick Mahomes	29.86
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	12.70	DeAndre Hopkins	12.70
WR	Keenan Allen	45.60	Keenan Allen	45.60
RB	Matt Breida	10.80	Matt Breida	10.80
RB	Royce Freeman	11.30	Royce Freeman	11.30
TE	Darren Waller	29.10	Darren Waller	29.10
W/R/T	Julian Edelman	19.20	Diontae Johnson	14.80
W/R/T	Chris Conley	5.00	Julian Edelman	19.20
K	Ka'imi Fairbairn	2.00	Ka'imi Fairbairn	2.00
DEF	Packers	14.00	Packers	14.00

Carried by One Guy: Keenan Allen, 45.60 points (25.4% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	2–1	2.231	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Miller	2–1	1.077	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 0
Demich	0–3	1.077	-3.5	-0.269	0 / 1
Krajcik	1–2	1.538	-0.5	-0.038	0 / 1
Kev	1–2	1.154	-2.0	-0.154	1 / 1
Adam	1–2	1.308	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Niz	1–2	1.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Josh	1–2	1.231	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1
Fischer	0–3	1.692	-3.5	-0.269	0 / 1
Nevans	2–1	1.538	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 0
Big Hut	3–0	2.385	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Martin	3–0	1.308	+5.0	+0.385	2 / 0
Joe Shore	1–2	0.923	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Horgan	3–0	2.538	0.0	0.000	0 / 0

2019 week 3 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Krajcik lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Demich lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Nevans lineup

Regular

Niz lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 3