2019 week 5 · Luck Factor

Regular

Oct 1 – 7, 2019

j-mart

142.91

Rank 7; -0.5 luck points

Adam

177.86

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.50 points left. Optimal 151.41 vs. actual 142.91.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	29.92	Russell Wilson	29.92
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	11.80	DK Metcalf	12.40
WR	DK Metcalf	12.40	Larry Fitzgerald	11.80
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	17.10	Ezekiel Elliott	17.10
RB	Marlon Mack	19.80	Marlon Mack	19.80
TE	George Kittle	20.80	George Kittle	20.80
W/R/T	Ronald Jones	7.60	Ronald Jones	7.60
W/R/T	Tre'Quan Smith	0.00	Nyheim Miller-Hines	8.50
K	Mason Crosby	9.00	Mason Crosby	9.00
DEF	Patriots	14.49	Patriots	14.49

Carried by One Guy: Russell Wilson, 29.92 points (20.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Deshaun Watson scored 43.74; zeroing that score creates a win.

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.34 points left. Optimal 190.20 vs. actual 177.86.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Deshaun Watson	43.74	Deshaun Watson	43.74
WR	Amari Cooper	41.60	Amari Cooper	41.60
WR	Courtland Sutton	19.20	Courtland Sutton	19.20
RB	James White	13.20	James White	13.20
RB	David Johnson	18.60	David Johnson	18.60
TE	Mark Andrews	9.50	Mark Andrews	9.50
W/R/T	Sammy Watkins	0.00	Tarik Cohen	12.34
W/R/T	Auden Tate	11.60	Auden Tate	11.60
K	Jake Elliott	6.00	Jake Elliott	6.00
DEF	Panthers	14.42	Panthers	14.42

Carried by One Guy: Deshaun Watson, 43.74 points (24.6% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 1 – 7, 2019

Miller

162.00

Rank 5; -2.5 luck points

Kev

170.72

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.52 points left. Optimal 173.52 vs. actual 162.00.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	9.42	Josh Allen	17.46
WR	Adam Thielen	34.00	Adam Thielen	34.00
WR	Curtis Samuel	7.40	John Brown	12.50
RB	Alvin Kamara	16.92	Alvin Kamara	16.92
RB	Josh Jacobs	31.30	Josh Jacobs	31.30
TE	Jack Doyle	4.90	Jack Doyle	4.90
W/R/T	John Brown	12.50	DJ Chark	38.40
W/R/T	DJ Chark	38.40	Miles Sanders	10.88
K	Wil Lutz	6.00	Wil Lutz	6.00
DEF	Rams	1.16	Rams	1.16

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: DJ Chark, 38.40 points (23.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Christian McCaffrey scored 49.70; zeroing that score creates a win.

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.60 points left. Optimal 184.32 vs. actual 170.72.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	25.92	Tom Brady	25.92
WR	Sterling Shepard	9.70	Marquise Goodwin	8.60
WR	Deebo Samuel Sr.	1.30	Sterling Shepard	9.70
RB	Leonard Fournette	25.70	Leonard Fournette	25.70
RB	Christian McCaffrey	49.70	Christian McCaffrey	49.70
TE	Jared Cook	14.10	Jared Cook	14.10
W/R/T	Devonta Freeman	18.00	Devonta Freeman	18.00
W/R/T	Demarcus Robinson	6.10	Ito Smith	12.40
K	Robbie Gould	8.00	Robbie Gould	8.00
DEF	Bills	12.20	Bills	12.20

Carried by One Guy: Christian McCaffrey, 49.70 points (29.1% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 1 – 7, 2019

Demich

109.93

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik

169.15

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.90 points left. Optimal 115.83 vs. actual 109.93.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	25.42	Kyler Murray	25.42
WR	Phillip Dorsett II	0.00	Randall Cobb	8.30
WR	Calvin Ridley	19.80	Calvin Ridley	19.80
RB	Melvin Gordon III	7.80	Melvin Gordon III	7.80
RB	Joe Mixon	11.90	Joe Mixon	11.90
TE	Travis Kelce	11.00	Travis Kelce	11.00
W/R/T	Randall Cobb	8.30	Chris Thompson	8.80
W/R/T	Chris Thompson	8.80	Jason Witten	5.90
K	Dan Bailey	16.00	Dan Bailey	16.00
DEF	Cowboys	0.91	Cowboys	0.91

Carried by One Guy: Kyler Murray, 25.42 points (23.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 169.15 vs. actual 169.15.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jared Goff	19.90	Jared Goff	19.90
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	4.88	Odell Beckham Jr.	4.88
WR	Will Fuller V	55.70	Will Fuller V	55.70
RB	Tevin Coleman	15.70	Tevin Coleman	15.70
RB	Nick Chubb	10.90	Nick Chubb	10.90
TE	Jimmy Graham	7.10	Jimmy Graham	7.10
W/R/T	Cooper Kupp	28.70	Cooper Kupp	28.70
W/R/T	Terry McLaurin	8.10	Terry McLaurin	8.10
K	Justin Tucker	14.00	Justin Tucker	14.00
DEF	Jaguars	4.17	Jaguars	4.17

Carried by One Guy: Will Fuller V, 55.70 points (32.9% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 1 – 7, 2019

Nevans

170.67

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

138.30

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.04 points left. Optimal 176.71 vs. actual 170.67.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Carson Wentz	12.06	Carson Wentz	12.06
WR	Tyler Lockett	14.96	Tyler Lockett	14.96
WR	Michael Thomas	43.20	Michael Thomas	43.20
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	51.20	Aaron Jones Sr.	51.20
RB	Sony Michel	21.30	Sony Michel	21.30
TE	Eric Ebron	1.80	Tyler Higbee	7.70
W/R/T	Jarvis Landry	11.50	Jarvis Landry	11.50
W/R/T	Jamison Crowder	3.00	Nelson Agholor	3.14
K	Matt Bryant	6.00	Matt Bryant	6.00
DEF	Bears	5.65	Bears	5.65

Carried by One Guy: Aaron Jones Sr., 51.20 points (30.0% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 26.06 points left. Optimal 164.36 vs. actual 138.30.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	20.54	Patrick Mahomes	20.54
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	15.80	DeAndre Hopkins	15.80
WR	Keenan Allen	5.80	Michael Gallup	26.30
RB	Matt Breida	29.90	Matt Breida	29.90
RB	Royce Freeman	8.70	Royce Freeman	8.70
TE	Darren Waller	7.90	Darren Waller	7.90
W/R/T	Julian Edelman	27.00	Keke Coutee	10.20
W/R/T	Golden Tate	4.64	Julian Edelman	27.00
K	Ka'imi Fairbairn	10.00	Ka'imi Fairbairn	10.00
DEF	Titans	8.02	Titans	8.02

Carried by One Guy: Matt Breida, 29.90 points (21.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Aaron Jones Sr. scored 51.20; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 1 – 7, 2019

Fischer

115.63

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

155.33

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.74 points left. Optimal 126.37 vs. actual 115.63.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	11.44	Lamar Jackson	11.44
WR	Alshon Jeffery	11.20	Alshon Jeffery	11.20
WR	Geronimo Allison	4.80	Mecole Hardman Jr.	11.74
RB	Mark Ingram II	12.90	Mark Ingram II	12.90
RB	James Conner	11.50	James Conner	11.50
TE	Evan Engram	10.70	Evan Engram	10.70
W/R/T	Cole Beasley	5.10	Cole Beasley	5.10
W/R/T	Wayne Gallman	1.40	Alexander Mattison	5.20
K	Zane Gonzalez	11.00	Zane Gonzalez	11.00
DEF	Eagles	35.59	Eagles	35.59

Carried by One Guy: Eagles, 35.59 points (30.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.24 points left. Optimal 173.57 vs. actual 155.33.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	33.90	Matt Ryan	33.90
WR	Julio Jones	7.20	Allen Robinson	28.70
WR	Allen Robinson	28.70	DJ Moore	15.10
RB	Damien Williams	6.80	Damien Williams	6.80
RB	David Montgomery	10.60	David Montgomery	10.60
TE	Austin Hooper	13.60	Austin Hooper	13.60
W/R/T	Chris Godwin Jr.	33.50	Chris Godwin Jr.	33.50
W/R/T	Jaylen Samuels	2.46	Will Dissly	12.80
K	Harrison Butker	6.00	Harrison Butker	6.00
DEF	Vikings	12.57	Vikings	12.57

Carried by One Guy: Matt Ryan, 33.90 points (21.8% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 1 – 7, 2019

Josh

117.90

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Martin

119.28

Rank 9; +1.5 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.10 points left. Optimal 128.00 vs. actual 117.90.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jacoby Brissett	10.94	Jacoby Brissett	10.94
WR	Robert Woods	9.80	Robert Woods	9.80
WR	Mike Evans	0.00	Tyler Boyd	30.28
RB	Le'Veon Bell	15.80	Le'Veon Bell	15.80
RB	Phillip Lindsay	26.70	Phillip Lindsay	26.70
TE	Noah Fant	1.60	Noah Fant	1.60
W/R/T	Tyler Boyd	30.28	Jordan Howard	12.20
W/R/T	Jordan Howard	12.20	Peyton Barber	10.10
K	Jason Myers	7.00	Jason Myers	7.00
DEF	Browns	3.58	Browns	3.58

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Tyler Boyd, 30.28 points (25.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Dalvin Cook scored 27.80; zeroing that score creates a win.

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.64 points left. Optimal 132.92 vs. actual 119.28.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Philip Rivers	4.14	Philip Rivers	4.14
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	1.90	T.Y. Hilton	7.70
WR	T.Y. Hilton	7.70	Dede Westbrook	15.54
RB	Carlos Hyde	12.00	Carlos Hyde	12.00
RB	Dalvin Cook	27.80	Dalvin Cook	27.80
TE	Zach Ertz	16.70	Zach Ertz	16.70
W/R/T	JuJu Smith-Schuster	18.50	JuJu Smith-Schuster	18.50
W/R/T	Hollywood Brown	11.20	Hollywood Brown	11.20
K	Joey Slye	3.00	Joey Slye	3.00
DEF	Chargers	16.34	Chargers	16.34

Carried by One Guy: Dalvin Cook, 27.80 points (23.3% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 1 – 7, 2019

Niz

110.52

Rank 12; +4.5 luck points

Joe Shore

107.30

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 110.52 vs. actual 110.52.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Daniel Jones	10.48	Daniel Jones	10.48
WR	Brandin Cooks	6.60	Brandin Cooks	6.60
WR	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	2.80	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	2.80
RB	Todd Gurley	18.70	Todd Gurley	18.70
RB	Austin Ekeler	22.30	Austin Ekeler	22.30
TE	Jordan Akins	3.10	Jordan Akins	3.10
W/R/T	Mohamed Sanu	15.30	Mohamed Sanu	15.30
W/R/T	Derrick Henry	13.80	Derrick Henry	13.80
K	Josh Lambo	9.00	Josh Lambo	9.00
DEF	Texans	8.44	Texans	8.44

Carried by One Guy: Austin Ekeler, 22.30 points (20.2% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 107.30 vs. actual 107.30.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	25.22	Dak Prescott	25.22
WR	Stefon Diggs	7.40	Stefon Diggs	7.40
WR	Mike Williams	13.40	Mike Williams	13.40
RB	LeSean McCoy	2.30	Chris Carson	21.30
RB	Chris Carson	21.30	LeSean McCoy	2.30
TE	Dawson Knox	3.20	Dawson Knox	3.20
W/R/T	Josh Gordon	10.90	Josh Gordon	10.90
W/R/T	KeeSean Johnson	5.50	KeeSean Johnson	5.50
K	Greg Zuerlein	12.00	Greg Zuerlein	12.00
DEF	Saints	6.08	Saints	6.08

Carried by One Guy: Dak Prescott, 25.22 points (23.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Austin Ekeler scored 22.30; zeroing that score creates a win.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	2–3	3.385	-2.0	-0.154	0 / 2
Miller	2–3	1.923	-1.0	-0.077	1 / 1
Demich	1–4	1.231	+2.0	+0.154	1 / 1
Krajcik	3–2	2.846	-0.5	-0.038	0 / 1
Kev	3–2	3.077	-2.0	-0.154	1 / 1
Adam	3–2	3.154	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Niz	3–2	2.077	+4.5	+0.346	1 / 0
Josh	2–3	2.308	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1
Fischer	0–5	2.154	-3.5	-0.269	0 / 1
Nevans	4–1	3.077	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 0
Big Hut	4–1	3.385	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Martin	4–1	2.154	+6.5	+0.500	3 / 0
Joe Shore	1–4	1.231	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Horgan	3–2	3.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0

2019 week 5 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Krajcik lineup

Regular

Nevans lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Niz lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Cumulative totals through week 5