2019 week 10 · Luck Factor

Regular

Nov 5 – 11, 2019

j-mart

153.33

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

106.97

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.30 points left. Optimal 167.63 vs. actual 153.33.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	16.58	Russell Wilson	16.58
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	15.10	Christian Kirk	39.80
WR	Christian Kirk	39.80	Larry Fitzgerald	15.10
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	8.30	Marlon Mack	9.20
RB	Marlon Mack	9.20	Ronald Jones	22.60
TE	Ross Dwelley	5.40	Ross Dwelley	5.40
W/R/T	Davante Adams	20.80	Davante Adams	20.80
W/R/T	DK Metcalf	11.00	DK Metcalf	11.00
K	Mason Crosby	7.00	Mason Crosby	7.00
DEF	Rams	20.15	Rams	20.15

Carried by One Guy: Christian Kirk, 39.80 points (26.0% of positive starter points).

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 30.60 points left. Optimal 137.57 vs. actual 106.97.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	14.58	Matt Ryan	14.58
WR	Tyrell Williams	5.50	Chris Godwin Jr.	13.40
WR	Chris Godwin Jr.	13.40	Darius Slayton	36.10
RB	Damien Williams	13.90	Damien Williams	13.90
RB	Saquon Barkley	8.10	Saquon Barkley	8.10
TE	Austin Hooper	11.70	Austin Hooper	11.70
W/R/T	Danny Amendola	6.90	Allen Robinson	14.60
W/R/T	Allen Robinson	14.60	Danny Amendola	6.90
K	Harrison Butker	15.00	Harrison Butker	15.00
DEF	Vikings	3.29	Vikings	3.29

Carried by One Guy: Harrison Butker, 15.00 points (14.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Nov 5 – 11, 2019

Demich

146.33

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

135.37

Rank 6; -1.5 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 20.90 points left. Optimal 167.23 vs. actual 146.33.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	28.76	Kyler Murray	28.76
WR	Kenny Golladay	14.70	Kenny Golladay	14.70
WR	Calvin Ridley	7.70	Calvin Ridley	7.70
RB	Melvin Gordon III	22.30	Melvin Gordon III	22.30
RB	Joe Mixon	19.10	Joe Mixon	19.10
TE	Travis Kelce	20.50	Travis Kelce	20.50
W/R/T	Jason Witten	3.70	Randall Cobb	24.60
W/R/T	Latavius Murray	3.90	Latavius Murray	3.90
K	Dan Bailey	6.00	Dan Bailey	6.00
DEF	Seahawks	19.67	Seahawks	19.67

Carried by One Guy: Kyler Murray, 28.76 points (19.7% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.70 points left. Optimal 136.07 vs. actual 135.37.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	33.42	Lamar Jackson	33.42
WR	Cole Beasley	11.40	Cole Beasley	11.40
WR	Josh Reynolds	7.90	Josh Reynolds	7.90
RB	Mark Ingram II	9.40	Mark Ingram II	9.40
RB	Myles Gaskin	1.00	Gus Edwards	1.70
TE	Mike Gesicki	3.80	Mike Gesicki	3.80
W/R/T	Deebo Samuel Sr.	21.20	Deebo Samuel Sr.	21.20
W/R/T	Diontae Johnson	10.84	Diontae Johnson	10.84
K	Zane Gonzalez	11.00	Zane Gonzalez	11.00
DEF	Steelers	25.41	Steelers	25.41

Carried by One Guy: Lamar Jackson, 33.42 points (24.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Kyler Murray scored 28.76; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 5 – 11, 2019

Krajcik

77.18

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Josh

128.96

Rank 8; +0.5 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 77.18 vs. actual 77.18.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Philip Rivers	10.28	Philip Rivers	10.28
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	10.70	Odell Beckham Jr.	10.70
WR	Cooper Kupp	0.00	Cooper Kupp	0.00
RB	Tevin Coleman	11.20	Tevin Coleman	11.20
RB	Nick Chubb	16.10	Nick Chubb	16.10
TE	Jimmy Graham	7.90	Jimmy Graham	7.90
W/R/T	Robbie Chosen	2.10	Robbie Chosen	2.10
W/R/T	Ty Johnson	2.90	Ty Johnson	2.90
K	Justin Tucker	7.00	Justin Tucker	7.00
DEF	Packers	9.00	Packers	9.00

Carried by One Guy: Nick Chubb, 16.10 points (20.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.60 points left. Optimal 136.56 vs. actual 128.96.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Baker Mayfield	17.62	Baker Mayfield	17.62
WR	Mike Evans	12.20	Mike Evans	12.20
WR	Tyler Boyd	12.20	Tyler Boyd	12.20
RB	Le'Veon Bell	16.80	Le'Veon Bell	16.80
RB	Jaylen Samuels	7.00	Jaylen Samuels	7.00
TE	O.J. Howard	14.70	O.J. Howard	14.70
W/R/T	Robert Woods	16.50	Robert Woods	16.50
W/R/T	Chris Herndon	1.70	Adam Humphries	9.30
K	Jason Myers	11.00	Jason Myers	11.00
DEF	49ers	19.24	49ers	19.24

Carried by One Guy: 49ers, 19.24 points (14.9% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 5 – 11, 2019

Kev

106.66

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Niz

151.38

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 106.66 vs. actual 106.66.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ryan Tannehill	18.94	Ryan Tannehill	18.94
WR	Julio Jones	10.90	Julio Jones	10.90
WR	Alex Erickson	1.30	Alex Erickson	1.30
RB	Devonta Freeman	7.80	Devonta Freeman	7.80
RB	Christian McCaffrey	28.10	Christian McCaffrey	28.10
TE	Jared Cook	13.40	Jared Cook	13.40
W/R/T	Taylor Gabriel	13.80	Taylor Gabriel	13.80
W/R/T	Jonnu Smith	7.00	Jonnu Smith	7.00
K	Michael Badgley	5.00	Michael Badgley	5.00
DEF	Giants	0.42	Giants	0.42

Carried by One Guy: Christian McCaffrey, 28.10 points (26.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.64 points left. Optimal 153.02 vs. actual 151.38.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	11.48	Derek Carr	13.12
WR	Marvin Jones Jr.	12.70	Marvin Jones Jr.	12.70
WR	DeVante Parker	11.90	DeVante Parker	11.90
RB	Derrick Henry	35.10	Derrick Henry	35.10
RB	Austin Ekeler	12.80	Austin Ekeler	12.80
TE	T.J. Hockenson	7.70	T.J. Hockenson	7.70
W/R/T	Todd Gurley	7.30	Todd Gurley	7.30
W/R/T	Tyreek Hill	35.00	Tyreek Hill	35.00
K	Matt Gay	14.00	Matt Gay	14.00
DEF	Browns	3.40	Browns	3.40

Carried by One Guy: Derrick Henry, 35.10 points (23.2% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 5 – 11, 2019

Miller

106.27

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Nevans

175.74

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.42 points left. Optimal 121.69 vs. actual 106.27.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	10.02	Josh Allen	25.44
WR	John Brown	12.70	John Brown	12.70
WR	Hunter Renfrow	8.20	Hunter Renfrow	8.20
RB	Alvin Kamara	15.40	Alvin Kamara	15.40
RB	Josh Jacobs	19.10	Josh Jacobs	19.10
TE	Vance McDonald	4.30	Vance McDonald	4.30
W/R/T	Kenyan Drake	10.10	Kenyan Drake	10.10
W/R/T	Curtis Samuel	13.50	Curtis Samuel	13.50
K	Wil Lutz	8.00	Wil Lutz	8.00
DEF	Chiefs	4.95	Chiefs	4.95

Carried by One Guy: Josh Jacobs, 19.10 points (18.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.84 points left. Optimal 185.58 vs. actual 175.74.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jimmy Garoppolo	10.02	Jimmy Garoppolo	10.02
WR	Tyler Lockett	7.16	Jarvis Landry	24.70
WR	Michael Thomas	30.20	Michael Thomas	30.20
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	27.30	Kareem Hunt	14.40
RB	Devin Singletary	8.00	Aaron Jones Sr.	27.30
TE	Hunter Henry	13.00	Hunter Henry	13.00
W/R/T	Jarvis Landry	24.70	Eric Ebron	10.60
W/R/T	Jamison Crowder	19.10	Jamison Crowder	19.10
K	Chase McLaughlin	12.00	Chase McLaughlin	12.00
DEF	Ravens	24.26	Ravens	24.26

Carried by One Guy: Michael Thomas, 30.20 points (17.2% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 5 – 11, 2019

Martin

136.48

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

115.76

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 136.48 vs. actual 136.48.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kirk Cousins	19.30	Kirk Cousins	19.30
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	4.40	Emmanuel Sanders	4.40
WR	JuJu Smith-Schuster	7.40	JuJu Smith-Schuster	7.40
RB	Dalvin Cook	31.30	Dalvin Cook	31.30
RB	Kalen Ballage	8.50	Kalen Ballage	8.50
TE	Greg Olsen	17.80	Greg Olsen	17.80
W/R/T	Demaryius Thomas	14.40	Demaryius Thomas	14.40
W/R/T	Hollywood Brown	18.00	Hollywood Brown	18.00
K	Joey Slye	6.00	Joey Slye	6.00
DEF	Colts	9.38	Colts	9.38

Carried by One Guy: Dalvin Cook, 31.30 points (22.9% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.80 points left. Optimal 124.56 vs. actual 115.76.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	27.88	Dak Prescott	27.88
WR	Stefon Diggs	7.90	Stefon Diggs	7.90
WR	Mike Williams	7.50	Mike Williams	7.50
RB	Chris Carson	19.10	Chris Carson	19.10
RB	David Montgomery	6.00	David Montgomery	6.00
TE	Jack Doyle	13.40	Jack Doyle	13.40
W/R/T	DJ Moore	23.00	J.D. McKissic	11.50
W/R/T	A.J. Brown	2.70	DJ Moore	23.00
K	Greg Zuerlein	4.00	Greg Zuerlein	4.00
DEF	Saints	4.28	Saints	4.28

Carried by One Guy: Dak Prescott, 27.88 points (24.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Dalvin Cook scored 31.30; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 5 – 11, 2019

Adam

119.56

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

129.68

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.00 points left. Optimal 121.56 vs. actual 119.56.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jameis Winston	20.32	Jameis Winston	20.32
WR	Sammy Watkins	10.10	Sammy Watkins	10.10
WR	Chester Rogers	5.86	Chester Rogers	5.86
RB	David Johnson	0.00	David Johnson	0.00
RB	Tarik Cohen	13.88	Tarik Cohen	13.88
TE	Mark Andrews	23.30	Mark Andrews	23.30
W/R/T	Amari Cooper	33.70	Amari Cooper	33.70
W/R/T	Zach Pascal	4.60	Auden Tate	6.60
K	Chris Boswell	5.00	Chris Boswell	5.00
DEF	Panthers	2.80	Panthers	2.80

Carried by One Guy: Amari Cooper, 33.70 points (28.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Patrick Mahomes scored 31.84; zeroing that score creates a win.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.30 points left. Optimal 143.98 vs. actual 129.68.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	31.84	Patrick Mahomes	31.84
WR	Keenan Allen	16.60	Keenan Allen	16.60
WR	Michael Gallup	17.60	Michael Gallup	17.60
RB	Jamaal Williams	6.30	Jamaal Williams	6.30
RB	Matt Breida	4.50	Matt Breida	4.50
TE	Darren Waller	7.00	Darren Waller	7.00
W/R/T	Ted Ginn Jr.	0.50	Golden Tate	23.66
W/R/T	Golden Tate	23.66	Gerald Everett	14.80
K	Brett Maher	5.00	Brett Maher	5.00
DEF	Jets	16.68	Jets	16.68

Carried by One Guy: Patrick Mahomes, 31.84 points (24.6% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	5–5	6.769	-5.0	-0.385	1 / 3
Miller	4–6	4.231	-1.5	-0.115	1 / 2
Demich	4–6	4.000	+2.0	+0.154	1 / 1
Krajcik	6–4	4.538	+2.5	+0.192	2 / 1
Kev	5–5	5.231	-2.0	-0.154	1 / 1
Adam	5–5	5.077	+0.5	+0.038	1 / 0
Niz	5–5	4.692	+1.0	+0.077	1 / 1
Josh	5–5	4.692	-2.0	-0.154	1 / 1
Fischer	2–8	4.154	-3.5	-0.269	1 / 2
Nevans	7–3	6.846	-1.0	-0.077	1 / 1
Big Hut	7–3	6.154	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Martin	7–3	4.538	+6.5	+0.500	3 / 0
Joe Shore	3–7	3.308	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Horgan	5–5	5.769	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1

2019 week 10 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Niz lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Nevans lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 10