2019 week 2 · Luck Factor

Regular

Sep 10 – 16, 2019

j-mart

184.49

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Demich

130.31

Rank 4; -3.5 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 184.49 vs. actual 184.49.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	26.20	Russell Wilson	26.20
WR	Davante Adams	19.60	Davante Adams	19.60
WR	DK Metcalf	15.10	DK Metcalf	15.10
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	22.00	Ezekiel Elliott	22.00
RB	Marlon Mack	8.30	Marlon Mack	8.30
TE	George Kittle	8.40	George Kittle	8.40
W/R/T	Larry Fitzgerald	17.40	Christian Kirk	19.40
W/R/T	Christian Kirk	19.40	Larry Fitzgerald	17.40
K	Robbie Gould	11.00	Robbie Gould	11.00
DEF	Patriots	37.09	Patriots	37.09

Carried by One Guy: Patriots, 37.09 points (20.1% of positive starter points).

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.20 points left. Optimal 139.51 vs. actual 130.31.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	18.36	Kyler Murray	18.36
WR	Kenny Golladay	27.70	Kenny Golladay	27.70
WR	Calvin Ridley	26.50	Calvin Ridley	26.50
RB	Latavius Murray	3.30	Chris Thompson	10.10
RB	Joe Mixon	5.70	Joe Mixon	5.70
TE	Travis Kelce	25.70	Travis Kelce	25.70
W/R/T	Randall Cobb	8.80	Randall Cobb	8.80
W/R/T	Chris Thompson	10.10	Jason Witten	12.50
K	Dan Bailey	3.00	Dan Bailey	3.00
DEF	Cowboys	1.15	Cowboys	1.15

Carried by One Guy: Kenny Golladay, 27.70 points (21.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 10 – 16, 2019

Josh

120.61

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

120.24

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.90 points left. Optimal 136.51 vs. actual 120.61.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Baker Mayfield	17.00	Baker Mayfield	17.00
WR	Robert Woods	6.20	Robert Woods	6.20
WR	Mike Evans	10.10	Mike Evans	10.10
RB	Le'Veon Bell	20.90	Le'Veon Bell	20.90
RB	Phillip Lindsay	10.60	Phillip Lindsay	10.60
TE	Vernon Davis	5.90	Vernon Davis	5.90
W/R/T	Donte Moncrief	0.00	Tyler Boyd	24.20
W/R/T	Tyler Boyd	24.20	Peyton Barber	15.90
K	Austin Seibert	12.00	Austin Seibert	12.00
DEF	Browns	13.71	Browns	13.71

Carried by One Guy: Tyler Boyd, 24.20 points (20.1% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 31.26 points left. Optimal 151.50 vs. actual 120.24.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	32.88	Lamar Jackson	32.88
WR	Antonio Brown	16.10	Antonio Brown	16.10
WR	Cole Beasley	12.30	Cole Beasley	12.30
RB	Mark Ingram II	9.70	Raheem Mostert	24.10
RB	James Conner	13.50	James Conner	13.50
TE	O.J. Howard	0.00	Evan Engram	10.80
W/R/T	James White	11.90	James White	11.90
W/R/T	Evan Engram	10.80	Mecole Hardman Jr.	16.86
K	Brett Maher	6.00	Brett Maher	6.00
DEF	Bills	7.06	Bills	7.06

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Lamar Jackson, 32.88 points (27.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Tyler Boyd scored 24.20; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 10 – 16, 2019

Niz

101.17

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Nevans

111.87

Rank 9; +1.5 luck points

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.90 points left. Optimal 102.07 vs. actual 101.17.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	-0.48	Drew Brees	-0.48
WR	Mohamed Sanu	5.60	Marvin Jones Jr.	9.30
WR	Brandin Cooks	16.60	Brandin Cooks	16.60
RB	Todd Gurley	15.70	Todd Gurley	15.70
RB	Austin Ekeler	23.30	Austin Ekeler	23.30
TE	T.J. Hockenson	1.70	T.J. Hockenson	1.70
W/R/T	Marvin Jones Jr.	9.30	Derrick Henry	17.40
W/R/T	Derrick Henry	17.40	Ito Smith	6.50
K	Aldrick Rosas	2.00	Aldrick Rosas	2.00
DEF	Texans	10.05	Texans	10.05

Carried by One Guy: Austin Ekeler, 23.30 points (22.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Michael Thomas scored 18.90; zeroing that score creates a win.

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 45.94 points left. Optimal 157.81 vs. actual 111.87.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Carson Wentz	17.54	Carson Wentz	17.54
WR	Tyler Lockett	18.10	Tyler Lockett	18.10
WR	Michael Thomas	18.90	Michael Thomas	18.90
RB	Sony Michel	12.30	Sony Michel	12.30
RB	Devin Singletary	11.70	Devin Singletary	11.70
TE	Tyler Higbee	4.10	Eric Ebron	11.50
W/R/T	Jarvis Landry	7.16	Nelson Agholor	26.70
W/R/T	Jamison Crowder	8.00	Aaron Jones Sr.	27.00
K	Matt Bryant	8.00	Matt Bryant	8.00
DEF	Bears	6.07	Bears	6.07

Carried by One Guy: Michael Thomas, 18.90 points (16.9% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 10 – 16, 2019

Adam

104.55

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

142.25

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 26.16 points left. Optimal 130.71 vs. actual 104.55.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Deshaun Watson	12.86	Deshaun Watson	12.86
WR	Sammy Watkins	10.90	Sammy Watkins	10.90
WR	Amari Cooper	14.40	Amari Cooper	14.40
RB	David Johnson	8.40	David Johnson	8.40
RB	Kerryon Johnson	16.80	Kerryon Johnson	16.80
TE	Mark Andrews	27.20	Mark Andrews	27.20
W/R/T	Alshon Jeffery	0.00	Vance McDonald	22.80
W/R/T	Tarik Cohen	4.64	Courtland Sutton	8.00
K	Jake Elliott	7.00	Jake Elliott	7.00
DEF	Broncos	2.35	Broncos	2.35

Carried by One Guy: Mark Andrews, 27.20 points (26.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.70 points left. Optimal 147.95 vs. actual 142.25.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	21.10	Matt Ryan	21.10
WR	Julio Jones	29.60	Julio Jones	29.60
WR	Chris Godwin Jr.	28.10	Chris Godwin Jr.	28.10
RB	Adrian Peterson	11.20	Damien Williams	8.60
RB	Damien Williams	8.60	Adrian Peterson	11.20
TE	Austin Hooper	7.40	Austin Hooper	7.40
W/R/T	Allen Robinson	8.10	DJ Moore	17.90
W/R/T	DJ Moore	17.90	David Montgomery	13.80
K	Harrison Butker	4.00	Harrison Butker	4.00
DEF	Vikings	6.25	Vikings	6.25

Carried by One Guy: Julio Jones, 29.60 points (20.8% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 10 – 16, 2019

Kev

95.70

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Martin

127.75

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.08 points left. Optimal 99.78 vs. actual 95.70.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	24.66	Tom Brady	24.66
WR	Danny Amendola	0.22	James Washington	4.30
WR	Deebo Samuel Sr.	20.30	Deebo Samuel Sr.	20.30
RB	Leonard Fournette	12.70	Leonard Fournette	12.70
RB	Christian McCaffrey	7.30	Christian McCaffrey	7.30
TE	Jared Cook	4.50	Jared Cook	4.50
W/R/T	Devonta Freeman	9.40	Devonta Freeman	9.40
W/R/T	Duke Johnson	3.10	Duke Johnson	3.10
K	Stephen Gostkowski	4.00	Stephen Gostkowski	4.00
DEF	Titans	9.52	Titans	9.52

Carried by One Guy: Tom Brady, 24.66 points (25.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 38.00 points left. Optimal 165.75 vs. actual 127.75.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	13.32	Cam Newton	13.32
WR	JuJu Smith-Schuster	13.40	Emmanuel Sanders	28.80
WR	Dede Westbrook	1.36	T.Y. Hilton	14.30
RB	Carlos Hyde	9.00	Dalvin Cook	30.10
RB	Dalvin Cook	30.10	Rashaad Penny	13.96
TE	Zach Ertz	17.20	Zach Ertz	17.20
W/R/T	T.Y. Hilton	14.30	Hollywood Brown	16.60
W/R/T	Hollywood Brown	16.60	Greg Olsen	19.00
K	Jason Myers	4.00	Jason Myers	4.00
DEF	Chargers	8.47	Chargers	8.47

Carried by One Guy: Dalvin Cook, 30.10 points (23.6% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 10 – 16, 2019

Krajcik

139.31

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

109.96

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.20 points left. Optimal 153.51 vs. actual 139.31.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jared Goff	19.12	Jared Goff	19.12
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	30.10	Odell Beckham Jr.	30.10
WR	Will Fuller V	8.00	Terry McLaurin	17.20
RB	Dion Lewis	2.40	Nick Chubb	19.80
RB	Nick Chubb	19.80	Justin Jackson	7.40
TE	Delanie Walker	7.90	Delanie Walker	7.90
W/R/T	Robbie Chosen	12.10	Robbie Chosen	12.10
W/R/T	Cooper Kupp	19.60	Cooper Kupp	19.60
K	Justin Tucker	12.00	Justin Tucker	12.00
DEF	Jaguars	8.29	Jaguars	8.29

Carried by One Guy: Odell Beckham Jr., 30.10 points (21.6% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 30.60 points left. Optimal 140.56 vs. actual 109.96.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	27.66	Dak Prescott	27.66
WR	DeSean Jackson	0.00	Stefon Diggs	9.90
WR	Stefon Diggs	9.90	Mike Williams	11.30
RB	Chris Carson	9.70	Chris Carson	9.70
RB	Saquon Barkley	24.50	Saquon Barkley	24.50
TE	Jack Doyle	4.10	Jack Doyle	4.10
W/R/T	Josh Gordon	3.90	Tyrell Williams	15.60
W/R/T	Tyrell Williams	15.60	John Ross	23.20
K	Greg Zuerlein	7.00	Greg Zuerlein	7.00
DEF	Panthers	7.60	Panthers	7.60

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Dak Prescott, 27.66 points (25.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Odell Beckham Jr. scored 30.10; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 10 – 16, 2019

Miller

102.48

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

125.49

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.16 points left. Optimal 119.64 vs. actual 102.48.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	14.36	Josh Allen	22.22
WR	Adam Thielen	12.50	Adam Thielen	12.50
WR	John Brown	14.20	John Brown	14.20
RB	Alvin Kamara	7.00	Josh Jacobs	9.90
RB	Josh Jacobs	9.90	Frank Gore	16.30
TE	David Njoku	0.00	David Njoku	0.00
W/R/T	Kenyan Drake	9.80	Kenyan Drake	9.80
W/R/T	Curtis Samuel	14.30	Curtis Samuel	14.30
K	Wil Lutz	12.00	Wil Lutz	12.00
DEF	Rams	8.42	Rams	8.42

Carried by One Guy: Aaron Rodgers, 14.36 points (14.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Patrick Mahomes scored 33.62; zeroing that score creates a win.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.64 points left. Optimal 142.13 vs. actual 125.49.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	33.62	Patrick Mahomes	33.62
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	9.00	Keenan Allen	17.80
WR	Keenan Allen	17.80	Michael Gallup	12.80
RB	Darren Sproles	2.66	Jamaal Williams	13.10
RB	Matt Breida	16.20	Matt Breida	16.20
TE	Darren Waller	12.30	Darren Waller	12.30
W/R/T	Julian Edelman	9.20	Royce Freeman	15.20
W/R/T	Michael Gallup	12.80	Julian Edelman	9.20
K	Ka'imi Fairbairn	6.00	Ka'imi Fairbairn	6.00
DEF	Ravens	5.91	Ravens	5.91

Carried by One Guy: Patrick Mahomes, 33.62 points (26.8% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	1–1	1.385	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Miller	1–1	0.692	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Demich	0–2	0.846	-3.5	-0.269	0 / 1
Krajcik	1–1	1.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Kev	0–2	0.692	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1
Adam	1–1	1.231	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Niz	1–1	0.846	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Josh	1–1	0.538	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Fischer	0–2	0.923	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Nevans	1–1	0.615	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 0
Big Hut	2–0	1.769	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Martin	2–0	1.000	+2.5	+0.192	1 / 0
Joe Shore	1–1	0.923	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Horgan	2–0	1.538	0.0	0.000	0 / 0

2019 week 2 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Demich lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Niz lineup

Nevans lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 2