2019 week 9 · Luck Factor

Regular

Oct 29 – Nov 4, 2019

j-mart

145.95

Rank 4; -3.5 luck points

Nevans

157.96

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.60 points left. Optimal 158.55 vs. actual 145.95.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	41.22	Russell Wilson	41.22
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	7.80	Davante Adams	11.10
WR	Christian Kirk	3.60	Larry Fitzgerald	7.80
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	15.90	Ezekiel Elliott	15.90
RB	Marlon Mack	8.90	Marlon Mack	8.90
TE	George Kittle	19.90	George Kittle	19.90
W/R/T	Davante Adams	11.10	Ronald Jones	16.20
W/R/T	DK Metcalf	29.00	DK Metcalf	29.00
K	Mason Crosby	5.00	Mason Crosby	5.00
DEF	Patriots	3.53	Patriots	3.53

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Russell Wilson, 41.22 points (28.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Tyler Lockett scored 42.50; zeroing that score creates a win.

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.75 points left. Optimal 167.71 vs. actual 157.96.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Carson Wentz	15.06	Carson Wentz	15.06
WR	Tyler Lockett	42.50	Tyler Lockett	42.50
WR	Jamison Crowder	22.30	Jamison Crowder	22.30
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	3.90	Aaron Jones Sr.	3.90
RB	Sony Michel	4.00	Sony Michel	4.00
TE	Hunter Henry	15.40	Hunter Henry	15.40
W/R/T	Jarvis Landry	17.10	Jarvis Landry	17.10
W/R/T	Devin Singletary	23.00	Devin Singletary	23.00
K	Ka'imi Fairbairn	10.00	Ka'imi Fairbairn	10.00
DEF	Bears	4.70	Ravens	14.45

Carried by One Guy: Tyler Lockett, 42.50 points (26.9% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 29 – Nov 4, 2019

Miller

131.57

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

108.42

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.58 points left. Optimal 147.15 vs. actual 131.57.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	12.94	Josh Allen	17.60
WR	Adam Thielen	0.00	John Brown	11.60
WR	DJ Chark	7.20	DJ Chark	7.20
RB	Kenyan Drake	30.20	Kenyan Drake	30.20
RB	Josh Jacobs	26.00	Josh Jacobs	26.00
TE	Dallas Goedert	7.90	Dallas Goedert	7.90
W/R/T	John Brown	11.60	Curtis Samuel	16.40
W/R/T	Curtis Samuel	16.40	Miles Sanders	10.92
K	Matt Gay	12.00	Matt Gay	12.00
DEF	Eagles	7.33	Eagles	7.33

Carried by One Guy: Kenyan Drake, 30.20 points (23.0% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.10 points left. Optimal 116.52 vs. actual 108.42.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	28.62	Lamar Jackson	28.62
WR	Alshon Jeffery	7.60	Alshon Jeffery	7.60
WR	Cole Beasley	9.30	Cole Beasley	9.30
RB	Mark Ingram II	16.40	Mark Ingram II	16.40
RB	Alexander Mattison	0.60	Gus Edwards	8.70
TE	Evan Engram	11.00	Evan Engram	11.00
W/R/T	Deebo Samuel Sr.	8.00	Deebo Samuel Sr.	8.00
W/R/T	Diontae Johnson	1.50	Diontae Johnson	1.50
K	Zane Gonzalez	5.00	Zane Gonzalez	5.00
DEF	Steelers	20.40	Steelers	20.40

Carried by One Guy: Lamar Jackson, 28.62 points (26.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Kenyan Drake scored 30.20; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 29 – Nov 4, 2019

Demich

108.21

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Josh

156.19

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.28 points left. Optimal 121.49 vs. actual 108.21.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Gardner Minshew II	9.76	Kyler Murray	23.04
WR	Phillip Dorsett II	3.30	Phillip Dorsett II	3.30
WR	Kenny Golladay	25.20	Kenny Golladay	25.20
RB	Rex Burkhead	4.40	Rex Burkhead	4.40
RB	Melvin Gordon III	25.90	Melvin Gordon III	25.90
TE	Travis Kelce	13.20	Travis Kelce	13.20
W/R/T	Jason Witten	13.80	Randall Cobb	7.50
W/R/T	Randall Cobb	7.50	Jason Witten	13.80
K	Dan Bailey	3.00	Dan Bailey	3.00
DEF	Seahawks	2.15	Seahawks	2.15

Carried by One Guy: Melvin Gordon III, 25.90 points (23.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.36 points left. Optimal 170.55 vs. actual 156.19.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jacoby Brissett	2.76	Baker Mayfield	17.12
WR	Mike Evans	38.00	Mike Evans	38.00
WR	Preston Williams	24.58	Preston Williams	24.58
RB	Le'Veon Bell	20.10	Le'Veon Bell	20.10
RB	Phillip Lindsay	15.20	Phillip Lindsay	15.20
TE	Ryan Griffin	11.00	Ryan Griffin	11.00
W/R/T	Jordan Howard	15.30	Jordan Howard	15.30
W/R/T	Jaylen Samuels	19.30	Jaylen Samuels	19.30
K	Jason Myers	6.00	Jason Myers	6.00
DEF	49ers	3.95	49ers	3.95

Carried by One Guy: Mike Evans, 38.00 points (24.3% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 29 – Nov 4, 2019

Krajcik

82.14

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Niz

185.45

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.30 points left. Optimal 83.44 vs. actual 82.14.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Philip Rivers	11.76	Philip Rivers	11.76
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	13.20	Odell Beckham Jr.	13.20
WR	Terry McLaurin	7.90	Terry McLaurin	7.90
RB	Tevin Coleman	5.60	Tevin Coleman	5.60
RB	Nick Chubb	13.10	Nick Chubb	13.10
TE	Jimmy Graham	5.70	Jimmy Graham	5.70
W/R/T	Robbie Chosen	5.30	Mark Walton	7.10
W/R/T	Mark Walton	7.10	Ty Johnson	6.60
K	Justin Tucker	6.00	Justin Tucker	6.00
DEF	Jaguars	6.48	Jaguars	6.48

Carried by One Guy: Odell Beckham Jr., 13.20 points (16.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 185.45 vs. actual 185.45.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Derek Carr	19.56	Derek Carr	19.56
WR	Mohamed Sanu	24.10	Mohamed Sanu	24.10
WR	Marvin Jones Jr.	28.60	Marvin Jones Jr.	28.60
RB	Derrick Henry	24.90	Derrick Henry	24.90
RB	Austin Ekeler	13.30	Austin Ekeler	13.30
TE	T.J. Hockenson	8.60	T.J. Hockenson	8.60
W/R/T	DeVante Parker	15.70	DeVante Parker	15.70
W/R/T	Tyreek Hill	28.50	Tyreek Hill	28.50
K	Josh Lambo	3.00	Josh Lambo	3.00
DEF	Texans	19.19	Texans	19.19

Carried by One Guy: Marvin Jones Jr., 28.60 points (15.4% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 29 – Nov 4, 2019

Kev

124.35

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Adam

128.39

Rank 8; +0.5 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 124.35 vs. actual 124.35.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	13.40	Tom Brady	13.40
WR	Corey Davis	8.80	Corey Davis	8.80
WR	Anthony Miller	0.00	Anthony Miller	0.00
RB	Duke Johnson	19.10	Duke Johnson	19.10
RB	Christian McCaffrey	39.60	Christian McCaffrey	39.60
TE	Jonnu Smith	4.80	Jonnu Smith	4.80
W/R/T	Taylor Gabriel	9.90	Taylor Gabriel	9.90
W/R/T	Chris Conley	5.20	Chris Conley	5.20
K	Robbie Gould	4.00	Robbie Gould	4.00
DEF	Cowboys	19.55	Cowboys	19.55

Carried by One Guy: Christian McCaffrey, 39.60 points (31.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Deshaun Watson scored 19.74; zeroing that score creates a win.

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.56 points left. Optimal 134.95 vs. actual 128.39.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Deshaun Watson	19.74	Jameis Winston	22.20
WR	Kenny Stills	9.20	Sammy Watkins	13.30
WR	Zach Pascal	19.70	Zach Pascal	19.70
RB	James White	16.40	James White	16.40
RB	Tarik Cohen	4.32	Tarik Cohen	4.32
TE	Mark Andrews	4.10	Mark Andrews	4.10
W/R/T	Amari Cooper	18.00	Amari Cooper	18.00
W/R/T	Courtland Sutton	17.30	Courtland Sutton	17.30
K	Jake Elliott	7.00	Jake Elliott	7.00
DEF	Panthers	12.63	Panthers	12.63

Carried by One Guy: Deshaun Watson, 19.74 points (15.4% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 29 – Nov 4, 2019

Big Hut

133.53

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

105.58

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 31.30 points left. Optimal 164.83 vs. actual 133.53.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	26.84	Matthew Stafford	26.84
WR	Chris Godwin Jr.	13.90	Chris Godwin Jr.	13.90
WR	DJ Moore	19.10	DJ Moore	19.10
RB	Leonard Fournette	12.20	Leonard Fournette	12.20
RB	David Montgomery	22.60	David Montgomery	22.60
TE	Darren Fells	7.10	Darren Fells	7.10
W/R/T	Danny Amendola	5.90	Damien Williams	22.80
W/R/T	Allen Robinson	1.60	Adrian Peterson	16.00
K	Harrison Butker	17.00	Harrison Butker	17.00
DEF	Vikings	7.29	Vikings	7.29

Carried by One Guy: Matthew Stafford, 26.84 points (20.1% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.60 points left. Optimal 116.18 vs. actual 105.58.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	21.48	Dak Prescott	21.48
WR	Stefon Diggs	2.60	Stefon Diggs	2.60
WR	Mike Williams	16.30	Mike Williams	16.30
RB	Chris Carson	15.30	Chris Carson	15.30
RB	Saquon Barkley	15.50	Saquon Barkley	15.50
TE	Jack Doyle	11.20	Jack Doyle	11.20
W/R/T	DeSean Jackson	1.50	Tyrell Williams	7.80
W/R/T	Tyrell Williams	7.80	A.J. Brown	12.10
K	Matt Prater	5.00	Matt Prater	5.00
DEF	Bills	8.90	Bills	8.90

Carried by One Guy: Dak Prescott, 21.48 points (20.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 29 – Nov 4, 2019

Martin

132.67

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

108.93

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.90 points left. Optimal 136.57 vs. actual 132.67.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kirk Cousins	21.30	Kirk Cousins	21.30
WR	Demaryius Thomas	3.90	JuJu Smith-Schuster	4.60
WR	JuJu Smith-Schuster	4.60	Hollywood Brown	7.80
RB	Carlos Hyde	16.00	Carlos Hyde	16.00
RB	Dalvin Cook	15.60	Dalvin Cook	15.60
TE	Zach Ertz	27.30	Zach Ertz	27.30
W/R/T	Greg Olsen	7.00	Emmanuel Sanders	26.20
W/R/T	Emmanuel Sanders	26.20	Greg Olsen	7.00
K	Joey Slye	5.00	Joey Slye	5.00
DEF	Browns	5.77	Browns	5.77

Carried by One Guy: Zach Ertz, 27.30 points (20.6% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 19.60 points left. Optimal 128.53 vs. actual 108.93.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Sam Darnold	12.50	Sam Darnold	12.50
WR	Julian Edelman	16.90	DeAndre Hopkins	19.40
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	19.40	Julian Edelman	16.90
RB	Matt Breida	11.20	Jamaal Williams	16.90
RB	Royce Freeman	2.40	Matt Breida	11.20
TE	Darren Waller	7.20	Darren Waller	7.20
W/R/T	Keenan Allen	7.00	Golden Tate	12.10
W/R/T	Michael Gallup	11.30	Michael Gallup	11.30
K	Brett Maher	14.00	Brett Maher	14.00
DEF	Jets	7.03	Jets	7.03

Carried by One Guy: DeAndre Hopkins, 19.40 points (17.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Zach Ertz scored 27.30; zeroing that score creates a win.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	4–5	5.846	-5.0	-0.385	1 / 3
Miller	4–5	4.154	-1.5	-0.115	1 / 2
Demich	3–6	3.231	+2.0	+0.154	1 / 1
Krajcik	6–3	4.538	+2.5	+0.192	2 / 1
Kev	5–4	5.077	-2.0	-0.154	1 / 1
Adam	5–4	4.692	+0.5	+0.038	1 / 0
Niz	4–5	3.846	+1.0	+0.077	1 / 1
Josh	4–5	4.231	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1
Fischer	2–7	3.538	-2.0	-0.154	1 / 1
Nevans	6–3	5.846	-1.0	-0.077	1 / 1
Big Hut	7–2	5.923	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Martin	6–3	3.846	+6.5	+0.500	3 / 0
Joe Shore	3–6	3.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Horgan	4–5	5.231	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1

2019 week 9 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Nevans lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Niz lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 9