2019 week 16 · Luck Factor

Consolation

Dec 17 – 23, 2019

j-mart

117.38

Miller

161.36

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 23.80 points left. Optimal 141.18 vs. actual 117.38.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	10.96	Russell Wilson	10.96
WR	Davante Adams	24.60	Davante Adams	24.60
WR	DK Metcalf	0.00	Larry Fitzgerald	14.80
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	15.40	Ezekiel Elliott	15.40
RB	Ronald Jones	19.90	Ronald Jones	19.90
TE	George Kittle	18.90	George Kittle	18.90
W/R/T	Larry Fitzgerald	14.80	Marlon Mack	18.10
W/R/T	Christian Kirk	0.90	Brian Hill	6.60
K	Jake Elliott	5.00	Jake Elliott	5.00
DEF	Patriots	6.92	Patriots	6.92

Carried by One Guy: Davante Adams, 24.60 points (21.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.18 points left. Optimal 177.54 vs. actual 161.36.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	8.34	Josh Allen	20.62
WR	Adam Thielen	0.20	John Brown	12.60
WR	John Brown	12.60	Curtis Samuel	4.10
RB	Kenyan Drake	35.40	Kenyan Drake	35.40
RB	Alvin Kamara	29.00	Alvin Kamara	29.00
TE	Dallas Goedert	24.10	Dallas Goedert	24.10
W/R/T	DJ Chark	3.80	DJ Chark	3.80
W/R/T	Miles Sanders	26.60	Miles Sanders	26.60
K	Wil Lutz	9.00	Wil Lutz	9.00
DEF	Jets	12.32	Jets	12.32

Carried by One Guy: Kenyan Drake, 35.40 points (21.9% of positive starter points).

Consolation

Dec 17 – 23, 2019

Demich

102.73

Krajcik

76.16

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 19.25 points left. Optimal 121.98 vs. actual 102.73.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	12.72	Kyler Murray	12.72
WR	Kenny Golladay	18.60	Randall Cobb	12.50
WR	Calvin Ridley	0.00	Kenny Golladay	18.60
RB	Melvin Gordon III	22.70	Melvin Gordon III	22.70
RB	Joe Mixon	9.30	Joe Mixon	9.30
TE	Travis Kelce	21.40	Travis Kelce	21.40
W/R/T	Latavius Murray	4.50	Chris Thompson	9.20
W/R/T	Corey Davis	7.00	Corey Davis	7.00
K	Austin Seibert	3.00	Austin Seibert	3.00
DEF	Cowboys	3.51	Seahawks	5.56

Carried by One Guy: Melvin Gordon III, 22.70 points (22.1% of positive starter points).

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 19.58 points left. Optimal 95.74 vs. actual 76.16.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	17.24	Jared Goff	22.12
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	14.40	Odell Beckham Jr.	14.40
WR	Cooper Kupp	13.10	Cooper Kupp	13.10
RB	LeSean McCoy	0.00	Nick Chubb	4.50
RB	Nick Chubb	4.50	LeSean McCoy	0.00
TE	Kyle Rudolph	1.70	Vance McDonald	3.90
W/R/T	Will Fuller V	3.10	Robbie Chosen	11.20
W/R/T	Robbie Chosen	11.20	Terry McLaurin	15.60
K	Justin Tucker	7.00	Justin Tucker	7.00
DEF	Raiders	3.92	Raiders	3.92

Carried by One Guy: Tom Brady, 17.24 points (22.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Playoff

Dec 17 – 23, 2019

Kev

209.33

Niz

130.57

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.80 points left. Optimal 226.13 vs. actual 209.33.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ryan Fitzpatrick	33.66	Ryan Fitzpatrick	33.66
WR	Julio Jones	28.60	Julio Jones	28.60
WR	Breshad Perriman	19.20	Breshad Perriman	19.20
RB	Devonta Freeman	33.70	Devonta Freeman	33.70
RB	Christian McCaffrey	34.30	Christian McCaffrey	34.30
TE	Jared Cook	23.40	Jared Cook	23.40
W/R/T	Adrian Peterson	13.50	Sterling Shepard	19.60
W/R/T	Mike Boone	4.30	John Ross	15.00
K	Jason Sanders	8.00	Jason Sanders	8.00
DEF	Chiefs	10.67	Chiefs	10.67

Carried by One Guy: Christian McCaffrey, 34.30 points (16.4% of positive starter points).

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 21.61 points left. Optimal 152.18 vs. actual 130.57.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	22.86	Drew Brees	22.86
WR	DeVante Parker	24.10	DeVante Parker	24.10
WR	Greg Ward	11.62	Greg Ward	11.62
RB	Dion Lewis	9.70	Todd Gurley	16.80
RB	Todd Gurley	16.80	Austin Ekeler	11.90
TE	Jack Doyle	3.70	Jack Doyle	3.70
W/R/T	Tyreek Hill	12.20	Brandin Cooks	13.90
W/R/T	Austin Ekeler	11.90	Tyreek Hill	12.20
K	Matt Gay	11.00	Matt Gay	11.00
DEF	Broncos	6.69	Texans	24.10

Carried by One Guy: DeVante Parker, 24.10 points (18.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Playoff

Dec 17 – 23, 2019

Nevans

130.07

Big Hut

149.62

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 23.28 points left. Optimal 153.35 vs. actual 130.07.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jimmy Garoppolo	10.42	Carson Wentz	20.96
WR	Jarvis Landry	14.40	Jarvis Landry	14.40
WR	Michael Thomas	33.60	Michael Thomas	33.60
RB	Kareem Hunt	8.10	Kareem Hunt	8.10
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	30.00	Aaron Jones Sr.	30.00
TE	Hunter Henry	9.50	Hunter Henry	9.50
W/R/T	Tyler Lockett	2.56	Jamison Crowder	10.00
W/R/T	Devin Singletary	5.80	Sony Michel	11.10
K	Ka'imi Fairbairn	10.00	Ka'imi Fairbairn	10.00
DEF	Ravens	5.69	Ravens	5.69

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Michael Thomas, 33.60 points (25.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Saquon Barkley scored 45.90; zeroing that score creates a win.

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 32.42 points left. Optimal 182.04 vs. actual 149.62.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	17.96	Ryan Tannehill	23.68
WR	Allen Robinson	11.30	Allen Robinson	11.30
WR	Darius Slayton	0.00	Tyrell Williams	12.20
RB	Leonard Fournette	13.50	Leonard Fournette	13.50
RB	Saquon Barkley	45.90	Saquon Barkley	45.90
TE	Tyler Higbee	21.40	Tyler Higbee	21.40
W/R/T	Danny Amendola	4.10	Austin Hooper	15.20
W/R/T	Austin Hooper	15.20	DeAndre Washington	18.60
K	Harrison Butker	9.00	Harrison Butker	9.00
DEF	Packers	11.26	Packers	11.26

Carried by One Guy: Saquon Barkley, 45.90 points (30.7% of positive starter points).

2019 week 16 matchups

Matchups

Consolation

j-mart lineup

Miller lineup

Consolation

Demich lineup

Krajcik lineup

Playoff

Kev lineup

Niz lineup

Playoff

Nevans lineup

Big Hut lineup