2019 week 7 · Luck Factor

Regular

Oct 15 – 21, 2019

j-mart

111.33

Rank 8; +0.5 luck points

Josh

110.02

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.60 points left. Optimal 111.93 vs. actual 111.33.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	14.34	Russell Wilson	14.34
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	2.20	Nelson Agholor	4.40
WR	DK Metcalf	7.30	DK Metcalf	7.30
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	28.70	Ezekiel Elliott	28.70
RB	Marlon Mack	8.60	Marlon Mack	8.60
TE	George Kittle	6.80	George Kittle	6.80
W/R/T	Jason Witten	7.30	Tony Pollard	2.80
W/R/T	Nelson Agholor	4.40	Jason Witten	7.30
K	Mason Crosby	6.00	Mason Crosby	6.00
DEF	Patriots	25.69	Patriots	25.69

Carried by One Guy: Ezekiel Elliott, 28.70 points (25.8% of positive starter points).

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 110.02 vs. actual 110.02.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jacoby Brissett	29.64	Jacoby Brissett	29.64
WR	Robert Woods	13.60	Robert Woods	13.60
WR	Tyler Boyd	8.50	Tyler Boyd	8.50
RB	Le'Veon Bell	8.60	Le'Veon Bell	8.60
RB	Phillip Lindsay	4.20	Phillip Lindsay	4.20
TE	Luke Willson	0.00	Luke Willson	0.00
W/R/T	Jordan Howard	7.60	Jordan Howard	7.60
W/R/T	Preston Williams	12.58	Preston Williams	12.58
K	Jason Myers	10.00	Jason Myers	10.00
DEF	49ers	15.30	49ers	15.30

Carried by One Guy: Jacoby Brissett, 29.64 points (26.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Ezekiel Elliott scored 28.70; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 15 – 21, 2019

Miller

140.78

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Niz

135.58

Rank 4; -3.5 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 25.14 points left. Optimal 165.92 vs. actual 140.78.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	21.28	Aaron Rodgers	45.76
WR	Adam Thielen	9.50	Adam Thielen	9.50
WR	DJ Chark	10.30	DJ Chark	10.30
RB	Josh Jacobs	18.40	Josh Jacobs	18.40
RB	Miles Sanders	6.94	Frank Gore	7.60
TE	Dallas Goedert	14.90	Dallas Goedert	14.90
W/R/T	John Brown	19.30	John Brown	19.30
W/R/T	Kenyan Drake	8.80	Kenyan Drake	8.80
K	Wil Lutz	10.00	Wil Lutz	10.00
DEF	Rams	21.36	Rams	21.36

Carried by One Guy: Rams, 21.36 points (15.2% of positive starter points).

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 37.50 points left. Optimal 173.08 vs. actual 135.58.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Daniel Jones	10.42	Daniel Jones	10.42
WR	Brandin Cooks	9.90	Marvin Jones Jr.	43.30
WR	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	23.30	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	23.30
RB	Todd Gurley	12.40	Derrick Henry	17.80
RB	Austin Ekeler	27.50	Austin Ekeler	27.50
TE	T.J. Hockenson	6.20	T.J. Hockenson	6.20
W/R/T	Derrick Henry	17.80	DeVante Parker	16.50
W/R/T	Tyreek Hill	16.40	Tyreek Hill	16.40
K	Josh Lambo	10.00	Josh Lambo	10.00
DEF	Texans	1.66	Texans	1.66

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Austin Ekeler, 27.50 points (20.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Rams scored 21.36; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 15 – 21, 2019

Demich

112.48

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Adam

85.07

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 20.64 points left. Optimal 133.12 vs. actual 112.48.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	6.96	Gardner Minshew II	21.00
WR	Kenny Golladay	3.10	Calvin Ridley	7.00
WR	Calvin Ridley	7.00	Jakobi Meyers	9.70
RB	Melvin Gordon III	8.90	Melvin Gordon III	8.90
RB	Joe Mixon	7.40	Joe Mixon	7.40
TE	Travis Kelce	10.40	Travis Kelce	10.40
W/R/T	Latavius Murray	34.00	Latavius Murray	34.00
W/R/T	Phillip Dorsett II	13.60	Phillip Dorsett II	13.60
K	Dan Bailey	6.00	Dan Bailey	6.00
DEF	Cowboys	15.12	Cowboys	15.12

Carried by One Guy: Latavius Murray, 34.00 points (30.2% of positive starter points).

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 46.52 points left. Optimal 131.59 vs. actual 85.07.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Deshaun Watson	17.52	Deshaun Watson	17.52
WR	Courtland Sutton	14.70	Courtland Sutton	14.70
WR	Auden Tate	9.50	Auden Tate	9.50
RB	David Johnson	0.20	Tarik Cohen	12.02
RB	Kerryon Johnson	2.30	Chase Edmonds	37.00
TE	Mark Andrews	5.90	Mark Andrews	5.90
W/R/T	James White	12.90	James White	12.90
W/R/T	Amari Cooper	17.60	Amari Cooper	17.60
K	Jake Elliott	4.00	Jake Elliott	4.00
DEF	Eagles	0.45	Eagles	0.45

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Amari Cooper, 17.60 points (20.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Latavius Murray scored 34.00; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 15 – 21, 2019

Krajcik

100.27

Rank 10; +2.5 luck points

Kev

83.39

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.60 points left. Optimal 109.87 vs. actual 100.27.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jared Goff	25.02	Jared Goff	25.02
WR	Will Fuller V	1.60	Cooper Kupp	11.00
WR	Robbie Chosen	2.00	Terry McLaurin	2.10
RB	Tevin Coleman	8.10	Tevin Coleman	8.10
RB	Mark Walton	6.80	Mark Walton	6.80
TE	Jimmy Graham	16.50	Jimmy Graham	16.50
W/R/T	Cooper Kupp	11.00	Gus Edwards	3.50
W/R/T	Terry McLaurin	2.10	Ty Johnson	9.70
K	Justin Tucker	9.00	Justin Tucker	9.00
DEF	Jaguars	18.15	Jaguars	18.15

Carried by One Guy: Jared Goff, 25.02 points (25.0% of positive starter points).

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 83.39 vs. actual 83.39.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	11.96	Tom Brady	11.96
WR	Julio Jones	15.30	Julio Jones	15.30
WR	Dante Pettis	0.00	Dante Pettis	0.00
RB	Devonta Freeman	4.50	Devonta Freeman	4.50
RB	Duke Johnson	7.60	Duke Johnson	7.60
TE	Josh Oliver	0.00	Josh Oliver	0.00
W/R/T	Corey Davis	20.00	Corey Davis	20.00
W/R/T	A.J. Brown	12.20	A.J. Brown	12.20
K	Robbie Gould	6.00	Robbie Gould	6.00
DEF	Titans	5.83	Titans	5.83

Carried by One Guy: Corey Davis, 20.00 points (24.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jared Goff scored 25.02; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 15 – 21, 2019

Nevans

127.43

Rank 5; -2.5 luck points

Martin

139.10

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 27.00 points left. Optimal 154.43 vs. actual 127.43.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Carson Wentz	6.84	Carson Wentz	6.84
WR	Tyler Lockett	18.20	Tyler Lockett	18.20
WR	Michael Thomas	24.10	Michael Thomas	24.10
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	18.30	Aaron Jones Sr.	18.30
RB	Sony Michel	22.40	Sony Michel	22.40
TE	Hunter Henry	15.70	Hunter Henry	15.70
W/R/T	Jamison Crowder	6.60	Eric Ebron	17.00
W/R/T	Devin Singletary	2.60	Jamison Crowder	6.60
K	Matt Bryant	6.00	Matt Bryant	6.00
DEF	Bears	6.69	Ravens	19.29

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Michael Thomas, 24.10 points (18.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Kirk Cousins scored 31.22; zeroing that score creates a win.

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 139.10 vs. actual 139.10.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kirk Cousins	31.22	Kirk Cousins	31.22
WR	T.Y. Hilton	19.40	T.Y. Hilton	19.40
WR	Dede Westbrook	20.00	Dede Westbrook	20.00
RB	Carlos Hyde	3.50	Carlos Hyde	3.50
RB	Dalvin Cook	29.90	Dalvin Cook	29.90
TE	Zach Ertz	5.80	Zach Ertz	5.80
W/R/T	Demaryius Thomas	7.20	Demaryius Thomas	7.20
W/R/T	Emmanuel Sanders	11.00	Emmanuel Sanders	11.00
K	Matt Prater	7.00	Matt Prater	7.00
DEF	Chargers	4.08	Chargers	4.08

Carried by One Guy: Kirk Cousins, 31.22 points (22.4% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 15 – 21, 2019

Big Hut

91.64

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

142.99

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 30.80 points left. Optimal 122.44 vs. actual 91.64.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	2.56	Matthew Stafford	30.56
WR	Allen Robinson	24.70	Allen Robinson	24.70
WR	Darius Slayton	6.54	Darius Slayton	6.54
RB	Damien Williams	2.60	Damien Williams	2.60
RB	Leonard Fournette	18.50	Leonard Fournette	18.50
TE	Austin Hooper	14.60	Austin Hooper	14.60
W/R/T	Adrian Peterson	6.10	Darren Fells	4.70
W/R/T	David Montgomery	1.90	Adrian Peterson	6.10
K	Harrison Butker	11.00	Harrison Butker	11.00
DEF	Vikings	3.14	Vikings	3.14

Carried by One Guy: Allen Robinson, 24.70 points (27.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 21.34 points left. Optimal 164.33 vs. actual 142.99.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	7.24	Patrick Mahomes	7.24
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	27.60	Golden Tate	14.34
WR	Keenan Allen	10.10	DeAndre Hopkins	27.60
RB	Matt Breida	4.60	Jamaal Williams	13.10
RB	Royce Freeman	16.70	Royce Freeman	16.70
TE	Darren Waller	33.60	Darren Waller	33.60
W/R/T	Julian Edelman	14.08	Gerald Everett	15.00
W/R/T	Michael Gallup	6.40	Julian Edelman	14.08
K	Ka'imi Fairbairn	11.00	Ka'imi Fairbairn	11.00
DEF	Bills	11.67	Bills	11.67

Carried by One Guy: Darren Waller, 33.60 points (23.5% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 15 – 21, 2019

Fischer

84.84

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

126.86

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.60 points left. Optimal 87.44 vs. actual 84.84.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	25.32	Lamar Jackson	25.32
WR	Alshon Jeffery	5.80	Alshon Jeffery	5.80
WR	Cole Beasley	10.60	Cole Beasley	10.60
RB	Mark Ingram II	6.30	Mark Ingram II	6.30
RB	Alexander Mattison	1.80	Alexander Mattison	1.80
TE	Evan Engram	1.60	Dawson Knox	4.20
W/R/T	Geronimo Allison	7.30	Geronimo Allison	7.30
W/R/T	Mecole Hardman Jr.	11.52	Mecole Hardman Jr.	11.52
K	Zane Gonzalez	10.00	Zane Gonzalez	10.00
DEF	Packers	4.60	Packers	4.60

Carried by One Guy: Lamar Jackson, 25.32 points (29.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.42 points left. Optimal 128.28 vs. actual 126.86.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	20.56	Dak Prescott	20.56
WR	Stefon Diggs	23.30	Stefon Diggs	23.30
WR	Mike Williams	8.70	Mike Williams	8.70
RB	Chris Carson	10.40	Chris Carson	10.40
RB	Saquon Barkley	17.00	Saquon Barkley	17.00
TE	Jack Doyle	5.10	Jack Doyle	5.10
W/R/T	LeSean McCoy	9.60	Brandon Bolden	8.62
W/R/T	Allen Lazard	7.20	LeSean McCoy	9.60
K	Greg Zuerlein	13.00	Greg Zuerlein	13.00
DEF	Saints	12.00	Saints	12.00

Carried by One Guy: Stefon Diggs, 23.30 points (18.4% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	4–3	4.769	-1.5	-0.115	1 / 2
Miller	3–4	3.385	-1.5	-0.115	1 / 2
Demich	2–5	2.077	+2.0	+0.154	1 / 1
Krajcik	5–2	3.615	+2.5	+0.192	2 / 1
Kev	4–3	3.846	-2.0	-0.154	1 / 1
Adam	4–3	4.154	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Niz	3–4	2.846	+1.0	+0.077	1 / 1
Josh	2–5	2.846	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1
Fischer	1–6	2.923	-3.5	-0.269	0 / 1
Nevans	4–3	4.154	-1.0	-0.077	1 / 1
Big Hut	5–2	4.615	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Martin	5–2	3.077	+6.5	+0.500	3 / 0
Joe Shore	3–4	2.462	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Horgan	4–3	4.231	0.0	0.000	0 / 0

2019 week 7 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Niz lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Nevans lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Cumulative totals through week 7