2019 week 12 · Luck Factor

Regular

Nov 19 – 25, 2019

j-mart

118.40

Rank 9; +1.5 luck points

Joe Shore

97.76

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.82 points left. Optimal 124.22 vs. actual 118.40.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	9.50	Russell Wilson	9.50
WR	Davante Adams	19.30	Davante Adams	19.30
WR	DK Metcalf	6.50	DK Metcalf	6.50
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	16.60	Ezekiel Elliott	16.60
RB	Ronald Jones	15.70	Ronald Jones	15.70
TE	George Kittle	26.90	George Kittle	26.90
W/R/T	Johnny Holton	0.00	Brian Hill	5.70
W/R/T	Brian Hill	5.70	Tony Pollard	5.82
K	Nick Folk	9.00	Nick Folk	9.00
DEF	Patriots	9.20	Patriots	9.20

Carried by One Guy: George Kittle, 26.90 points (22.7% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.90 points left. Optimal 106.66 vs. actual 97.76.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	6.88	Dak Prescott	6.88
WR	Josh Gordon	2.00	Josh Gordon	2.00
WR	A.J. Brown	25.50	A.J. Brown	25.50
RB	Chris Carson	9.70	Chris Carson	9.70
RB	David Montgomery	5.10	David Montgomery	5.10
TE	Jacob Hollister	4.20	Jacob Hollister	4.20
W/R/T	Nelson Agholor	0.00	Chris Conley	8.90
W/R/T	DJ Moore	33.40	DJ Moore	33.40
K	Greg Zuerlein	7.00	Greg Zuerlein	7.00
DEF	Saints	3.98	Saints	3.98

Carried by One Guy: DJ Moore, 33.40 points (34.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: George Kittle scored 26.90; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 19 – 25, 2019

Kev

143.16

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

136.57

Rank 4; -3.5 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.10 points left. Optimal 144.26 vs. actual 143.16.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Sam Darnold	30.20	Sam Darnold	30.20
WR	Julio Jones	11.80	Julio Jones	11.80
WR	Sterling Shepard	8.70	Sterling Shepard	8.70
RB	Christian McCaffrey	34.30	Christian McCaffrey	34.30
RB	Bo Scarbrough	7.80	Bo Scarbrough	7.80
TE	Jared Cook	21.90	Jared Cook	21.90
W/R/T	Taylor Gabriel	2.90	Duke Johnson	4.00
W/R/T	N'Keal Harry	8.00	N'Keal Harry	8.00
K	Younghoe Koo	10.00	Younghoe Koo	10.00
DEF	Titans	7.56	Titans	7.56

Carried by One Guy: Christian McCaffrey, 34.30 points (24.0% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.50 points left. Optimal 140.07 vs. actual 136.57.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	36.26	Lamar Jackson	36.26
WR	Cole Beasley	19.60	Cole Beasley	19.60
WR	Diontae Johnson	6.32	Diontae Johnson	6.32
RB	Mark Ingram II	26.80	Mark Ingram II	26.80
RB	Nyheim Miller-Hines	8.82	Nyheim Miller-Hines	8.82
TE	Noah Fant	4.40	Noah Fant	4.40
W/R/T	Deebo Samuel Sr.	13.00	Gus Edwards	5.50
W/R/T	Patrick Laird	2.00	Deebo Samuel Sr.	13.00
K	Stephen Hauschka	7.00	Stephen Hauschka	7.00
DEF	Steelers	12.37	Steelers	12.37

Carried by One Guy: Lamar Jackson, 36.26 points (26.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Christian McCaffrey scored 34.30; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 19 – 25, 2019

Adam

100.06

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Josh

126.62

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 23.70 points left. Optimal 123.76 vs. actual 100.06.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Deshaun Watson	18.92	Deshaun Watson	18.92
WR	Courtland Sutton	3.70	Courtland Sutton	3.70
WR	Russell Gage Jr.	15.60	Russell Gage Jr.	15.60
RB	James White	1.30	Raheem Mostert	13.70
RB	Tarik Cohen	12.42	Tarik Cohen	12.42
TE	Mark Andrews	6.50	Mark Andrews	6.50
W/R/T	Amari Cooper	0.00	James Washington	18.80
W/R/T	James Washington	18.80	Benny Snell Jr.	11.30
K	Chris Boswell	9.00	Chris Boswell	9.00
DEF	Bills	13.82	Bills	13.82

Carried by One Guy: Deshaun Watson, 18.92 points (18.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 126.62 vs. actual 126.62.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Baker Mayfield	25.58	Baker Mayfield	25.58
WR	Mike Evans	9.00	Mike Evans	9.00
WR	Tyler Boyd	21.10	Tyler Boyd	21.10
RB	Le'Veon Bell	15.80	Le'Veon Bell	15.80
RB	Phillip Lindsay	7.80	Phillip Lindsay	7.80
TE	Ryan Griffin	10.30	Ryan Griffin	10.30
W/R/T	Robert Woods	15.70	Robert Woods	15.70
W/R/T	Jaylen Samuels	6.20	Jaylen Samuels	6.20
K	Jason Myers	4.00	Jason Myers	4.00
DEF	49ers	11.14	49ers	11.14

Carried by One Guy: Baker Mayfield, 25.58 points (20.2% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 19 – 25, 2019

Krajcik

122.00

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Nevans

122.25

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 19.42 points left. Optimal 141.42 vs. actual 122.00.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jared Goff	4.38	Daniel Jones	14.70
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	20.40	Odell Beckham Jr.	20.40
WR	Cooper Kupp	9.50	Robbie Chosen	18.60
RB	Tevin Coleman	12.90	Tevin Coleman	12.90
RB	Nick Chubb	27.40	Nick Chubb	27.40
TE	Jimmy Graham	1.70	Jimmy Graham	1.70
W/R/T	Will Fuller V	23.00	Will Fuller V	23.00
W/R/T	Terry McLaurin	12.20	Terry McLaurin	12.20
K	Justin Tucker	9.00	Justin Tucker	9.00
DEF	Jaguars	1.52	Jaguars	1.52

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Nick Chubb, 27.40 points (22.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jarvis Landry scored 38.80; zeroing that score creates a win.

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 33.02 points left. Optimal 155.27 vs. actual 122.25.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Carson Wentz	8.94	Jimmy Garoppolo	18.22
WR	Jarvis Landry	38.80	Jarvis Landry	38.80
WR	Michael Thomas	28.10	Michael Thomas	28.10
RB	Kareem Hunt	12.60	Kareem Hunt	12.60
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	3.80	Sony Michel	8.50
TE	Eric Ebron	8.40	Eric Ebron	8.40
W/R/T	Tyler Lockett	4.80	Tyler Lockett	4.80
W/R/T	Jamison Crowder	3.80	Devin Singletary	14.40
K	Ka'imi Fairbairn	8.00	Ka'imi Fairbairn	8.00
DEF	Bears	5.01	Ravens	13.45

Carried by One Guy: Jarvis Landry, 38.80 points (31.7% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 19 – 25, 2019

Demich

101.04

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

139.12

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.43 points left. Optimal 112.47 vs. actual 101.04.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jeff Driskel	12.58	Jeff Driskel	12.58
WR	Kenny Golladay	10.10	Kenny Golladay	10.10
WR	Calvin Ridley	22.00	Calvin Ridley	22.00
RB	Latavius Murray	12.40	Latavius Murray	12.40
RB	Joe Mixon	7.90	Joe Mixon	7.90
TE	Jason Witten	1.50	Jason Witten	1.50
W/R/T	Randall Cobb	12.60	Randall Cobb	12.60
W/R/T	Corey Davis	4.90	Corey Davis	4.90
K	Austin Seibert	11.00	Austin Seibert	11.00
DEF	Cowboys	6.06	Seahawks	17.49

Carried by One Guy: Calvin Ridley, 22.00 points (21.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Chris Godwin Jr. scored 39.40; zeroing that score creates a win.

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.90 points left. Optimal 146.02 vs. actual 139.12.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	7.64	Matt Ryan	7.64
WR	Tyrell Williams	3.80	Chris Godwin Jr.	39.40
WR	Chris Godwin Jr.	39.40	Darius Slayton	10.70
RB	Leonard Fournette	36.90	Leonard Fournette	36.90
RB	Saquon Barkley	8.00	Saquon Barkley	8.00
TE	Darren Fells	3.40	Darren Fells	3.40
W/R/T	Danny Amendola	5.40	Allen Robinson	27.10
W/R/T	Allen Robinson	27.10	Danny Amendola	5.40
K	Matt Prater	9.00	Matt Prater	9.00
DEF	Rams	-1.52	Rams	-1.52

Carried by One Guy: Chris Godwin Jr., 39.40 points (28.0% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 19 – 25, 2019

Miller

124.44

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Martin

109.08

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.50 points left. Optimal 125.94 vs. actual 124.44.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	19.00	Josh Allen	19.00
WR	John Brown	11.90	John Brown	11.90
WR	DJ Chark	10.80	DJ Chark	10.80
RB	Jonathan Williams	23.10	Jonathan Williams	23.10
RB	Alvin Kamara	19.16	Alvin Kamara	19.16
TE	Dallas Goedert	8.20	Dallas Goedert	8.20
W/R/T	Josh Jacobs	4.60	Miles Sanders	11.60
W/R/T	Miles Sanders	11.60	Hunter Renfrow	6.10
K	Wil Lutz	11.00	Wil Lutz	11.00
DEF	Falcons	5.08	Falcons	5.08

Carried by One Guy: Jonathan Williams, 23.10 points (18.6% of positive starter points).

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.90 points left. Optimal 115.98 vs. actual 109.08.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Nick Foles	14.88	Nick Foles	14.88
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	2.50	T.Y. Hilton	4.80
WR	Hollywood Brown	21.20	Hollywood Brown	21.20
RB	Carlos Hyde	6.70	Carlos Hyde	6.70
RB	Kalen Ballage	3.60	Kalen Ballage	3.60
TE	Zach Ertz	27.10	Zach Ertz	27.10
W/R/T	T.Y. Hilton	4.80	Dede Westbrook	14.80
W/R/T	Dede Westbrook	14.80	Greg Olsen	9.40
K	Joey Slye	8.00	Joey Slye	8.00
DEF	Colts	5.50	Colts	5.50

Carried by One Guy: Zach Ertz, 27.10 points (24.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jonathan Williams scored 23.10; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 19 – 25, 2019

Niz

101.84

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

137.70

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 101.84 vs. actual 101.84.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	24.44	Drew Brees	24.44
WR	Marvin Jones Jr.	9.60	Marvin Jones Jr.	9.60
WR	DeVante Parker	15.10	DeVante Parker	15.10
RB	Todd Gurley	4.90	Todd Gurley	4.90
RB	Derrick Henry	30.50	Derrick Henry	30.50
TE	T.J. Hockenson	0.00	T.J. Hockenson	0.00
W/R/T	Brandin Cooks	5.30	Brandin Cooks	5.30
W/R/T	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	1.70	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	1.70
K	Matt Gay	2.00	Matt Gay	2.00
DEF	Browns	8.30	Browns	8.30

Carried by One Guy: Derrick Henry, 30.50 points (29.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.10 points left. Optimal 137.80 vs. actual 137.70.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jameis Winston	26.32	Jameis Winston	26.32
WR	Julian Edelman	17.30	DeAndre Hopkins	27.40
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	27.40	Julian Edelman	17.30
RB	Jamaal Williams	15.00	Jamaal Williams	15.00
RB	Derrius Guice	4.80	Royce Freeman	4.90
TE	Darren Waller	7.10	Darren Waller	7.10
W/R/T	Golden Tate	12.54	Golden Tate	12.54
W/R/T	Michael Gallup	9.50	Michael Gallup	9.50
K	Brett Maher	8.00	Brett Maher	8.00
DEF	Lions	9.74	Lions	9.74

Carried by One Guy: DeAndre Hopkins, 27.40 points (19.9% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	6–6	7.385	-3.5	-0.269	2 / 3
Miller	6–6	5.846	-1.5	-0.115	1 / 2
Demich	4–8	4.923	-1.5	-0.115	1 / 2
Krajcik	6–6	5.077	+2.5	+0.192	2 / 1
Kev	7–5	6.692	-1.5	-0.115	2 / 1
Adam	5–7	5.462	+0.5	+0.038	1 / 0
Niz	6–6	5.615	+1.0	+0.077	1 / 1
Josh	6–6	5.538	-2.0	-0.154	1 / 1
Fischer	3–9	5.462	-7.0	-0.538	1 / 3
Nevans	9–3	8.231	-1.0	-0.077	1 / 1
Big Hut	8–4	7.077	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Martin	8–4	5.231	+8.0	+0.615	4 / 0
Joe Shore	3–9	3.923	-1.5	-0.115	0 / 1
Horgan	7–5	7.538	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1

2019 week 12 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Nevans lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Niz lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 12