2019 week 8 · Luck Factor

Regular

Oct 22 – 28, 2019

j-mart

123.28

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

130.69

Rank 9; +1.5 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.30 points left. Optimal 131.58 vs. actual 123.28.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	15.68	Russell Wilson	15.68
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	2.80	Christian Kirk	17.80
WR	DK Metcalf	16.30	DK Metcalf	16.30
RB	Marlon Mack	16.00	Marlon Mack	16.00
RB	Ronald Jones	6.20	Ronald Jones	6.20
TE	George Kittle	14.60	George Kittle	14.60
W/R/T	Nelson Agholor	5.40	Nyheim Miller-Hines	7.60
W/R/T	Christian Kirk	17.80	Darrell Henderson Jr.	8.90
K	Mason Crosby	7.00	Mason Crosby	7.00
DEF	Patriots	21.50	Patriots	21.50

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Patriots, 21.50 points (17.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: James Conner scored 26.00; zeroing that score creates a win.

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.40 points left. Optimal 139.09 vs. actual 130.69.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ryan Tannehill	19.42	Ryan Tannehill	19.42
WR	Alshon Jeffery	10.40	Alshon Jeffery	10.40
WR	Cole Beasley	13.10	Cole Beasley	13.10
RB	J.D. McKissic	3.10	J.D. McKissic	3.10
RB	James Conner	26.00	James Conner	26.00
TE	Evan Engram	14.00	Evan Engram	14.00
W/R/T	DaeSean Hamilton	0.00	Diontae Johnson	19.40
W/R/T	Diontae Johnson	19.40	Alexander Mattison	8.40
K	Zane Gonzalez	11.00	Zane Gonzalez	11.00
DEF	Steelers	14.27	Steelers	14.27

Carried by One Guy: James Conner, 26.00 points (19.9% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 22 – 28, 2019

Miller

112.86

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Josh

137.67

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 19.88 points left. Optimal 132.74 vs. actual 112.86.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	29.10	Aaron Rodgers	29.10
WR	John Brown	10.40	John Brown	10.40
WR	DJ Chark	19.90	DJ Chark	19.90
RB	Frank Gore	3.40	Josh Jacobs	10.10
RB	Josh Jacobs	10.10	Miles Sanders	23.28
TE	Dallas Goedert	11.52	Dallas Goedert	11.52
W/R/T	Curtis Samuel	8.60	Curtis Samuel	8.60
W/R/T	Bisi Johnson	4.70	Bisi Johnson	4.70
K	Wil Lutz	6.00	Wil Lutz	6.00
DEF	Rams	9.14	Rams	9.14

Carried by One Guy: Aaron Rodgers, 29.10 points (25.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Mike Evans scored 44.80; zeroing that score creates a win.

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.98 points left. Optimal 151.65 vs. actual 137.67.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jacoby Brissett	9.48	Baker Mayfield	11.56
WR	Robert Woods	6.20	Mike Evans	44.80
WR	Tyler Boyd	12.80	Tyler Boyd	12.80
RB	Le'Veon Bell	6.50	Le'Veon Bell	6.50
RB	Phillip Lindsay	12.60	Phillip Lindsay	12.60
TE	Josh Hill	6.90	Josh Hill	6.90
W/R/T	Mike Evans	44.80	Jordan Howard	18.10
W/R/T	Preston Williams	8.90	Preston Williams	8.90
K	Jason Myers	12.00	Jason Myers	12.00
DEF	49ers	17.49	49ers	17.49

Carried by One Guy: Mike Evans, 44.80 points (32.5% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 22 – 28, 2019

Demich

169.01

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Niz

87.76

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.86 points left. Optimal 182.87 vs. actual 169.01.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	10.10	Gardner Minshew II	23.96
WR	Kenny Golladay	30.30	Kenny Golladay	30.30
WR	Calvin Ridley	13.00	Calvin Ridley	13.00
RB	Melvin Gordon III	11.40	Melvin Gordon III	11.40
RB	Joe Mixon	17.70	Joe Mixon	17.70
TE	Travis Kelce	16.30	Travis Kelce	16.30
W/R/T	Latavius Murray	38.70	Latavius Murray	38.70
W/R/T	Phillip Dorsett II	7.30	Phillip Dorsett II	7.30
K	Dan Bailey	14.00	Dan Bailey	14.00
DEF	Seahawks	10.21	Seahawks	10.21

Carried by One Guy: Latavius Murray, 38.70 points (22.9% of positive starter points).

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.90 points left. Optimal 99.66 vs. actual 87.76.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	26.92	Drew Brees	26.92
WR	Marvin Jones Jr.	6.20	Marvin Jones Jr.	6.20
WR	Brandin Cooks	0.00	DeVante Parker	11.90
RB	Todd Gurley	10.40	Todd Gurley	10.40
RB	Austin Ekeler	10.20	Austin Ekeler	10.20
TE	T.J. Hockenson	3.10	T.J. Hockenson	3.10
W/R/T	Derrick Henry	7.30	Derrick Henry	7.30
W/R/T	Tyreek Hill	14.10	Tyreek Hill	14.10
K	Josh Lambo	9.00	Josh Lambo	9.00
DEF	Texans	0.54	Texans	0.54

Carried by One Guy: Drew Brees, 26.92 points (30.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 22 – 28, 2019

Krajcik

168.12

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Adam

90.83

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.50 points left. Optimal 171.62 vs. actual 168.12.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jared Goff	24.88	Jared Goff	24.88
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	10.20	Odell Beckham Jr.	10.20
WR	Terry McLaurin	7.90	Terry McLaurin	7.90
RB	Tevin Coleman	39.80	Tevin Coleman	39.80
RB	Nick Chubb	12.80	Nick Chubb	12.80
TE	Jimmy Graham	5.00	Jimmy Graham	5.00
W/R/T	Cooper Kupp	37.00	Robbie Chosen	8.30
W/R/T	Ty Johnson	4.80	Cooper Kupp	37.00
K	Matt Prater	9.00	Matt Prater	9.00
DEF	Jaguars	16.74	Jaguars	16.74

Carried by One Guy: Tevin Coleman, 39.80 points (23.7% of positive starter points).

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.20 points left. Optimal 97.03 vs. actual 90.83.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Deshaun Watson	27.76	Deshaun Watson	27.76
WR	Courtland Sutton	10.20	Courtland Sutton	10.20
WR	Auden Tate	11.50	Auden Tate	11.50
RB	Tarik Cohen	8.60	James White	11.90
RB	Chase Edmonds	3.30	Tarik Cohen	8.60
TE	Vance McDonald	4.90	Vance McDonald	4.90
W/R/T	Kenny Stills	5.20	Kenny Stills	5.20
W/R/T	James White	11.90	Sammy Watkins	9.50
K	Jake Elliott	4.00	Jake Elliott	4.00
DEF	Panthers	3.47	Panthers	3.47

Carried by One Guy: Deshaun Watson, 27.76 points (30.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 22 – 28, 2019

Nevans

152.29

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

133.31

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.50 points left. Optimal 161.79 vs. actual 152.29.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Carson Wentz	14.38	Carson Wentz	14.38
WR	Tyler Lockett	18.42	Tyler Lockett	18.42
WR	Michael Thomas	29.30	Michael Thomas	29.30
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	43.60	Aaron Jones Sr.	43.60
RB	Sony Michel	7.40	Sony Michel	7.40
TE	Hunter Henry	8.70	Hunter Henry	8.70
W/R/T	Jarvis Landry	11.50	Jarvis Landry	11.50
W/R/T	Jamison Crowder	5.40	Devin Singletary	14.90
K	Matt Bryant	7.00	Matt Bryant	7.00
DEF	Bears	6.59	Bears	6.59

Carried by One Guy: Aaron Jones Sr., 43.60 points (28.6% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.30 points left. Optimal 141.61 vs. actual 133.31.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jameis Winston	21.34	Jameis Winston	21.34
WR	Stefon Diggs	21.30	Stefon Diggs	21.30
WR	Mike Williams	9.90	Mike Williams	9.90
RB	Chris Carson	15.00	Chris Carson	15.00
RB	Saquon Barkley	28.30	Saquon Barkley	28.30
TE	Cameron Brate	6.20	Cameron Brate	6.20
W/R/T	Tyrell Williams	18.10	Tyrell Williams	18.10
W/R/T	Keke Coutee	0.00	LeSean McCoy	8.30
K	Greg Zuerlein	5.00	Greg Zuerlein	5.00
DEF	Saints	8.17	Saints	8.17

Carried by One Guy: Saquon Barkley, 28.30 points (21.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Aaron Jones Sr. scored 43.60; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 22 – 28, 2019

Big Hut

147.48

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Martin

107.48

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 36.42 points left. Optimal 183.90 vs. actual 147.48.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	25.38	Matthew Stafford	25.38
WR	Chris Godwin Jr.	10.30	Darius Slayton	22.04
WR	DJ Moore	8.80	Danny Amendola	17.58
RB	Leonard Fournette	20.60	Leonard Fournette	20.60
RB	David Montgomery	26.70	David Montgomery	26.70
TE	Austin Hooper	18.50	Austin Hooper	18.50
W/R/T	Allen Robinson	11.20	Darren Fells	23.80
W/R/T	Damien Williams	9.00	Adrian Peterson	12.30
K	Harrison Butker	5.00	Harrison Butker	5.00
DEF	Vikings	12.00	Vikings	12.00

Carried by One Guy: David Montgomery, 26.70 points (18.1% of positive starter points).

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.86 points left. Optimal 118.34 vs. actual 107.48.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kirk Cousins	11.60	Kirk Cousins	11.60
WR	T.Y. Hilton	7.40	T.Y. Hilton	7.40
WR	JuJu Smith-Schuster	23.30	JuJu Smith-Schuster	23.30
RB	Carlos Hyde	8.30	Carlos Hyde	8.30
RB	Dalvin Cook	28.10	Dalvin Cook	28.10
TE	Zach Ertz	4.00	Zach Ertz	4.00
W/R/T	Emmanuel Sanders	12.50	Demaryius Thomas	11.30
W/R/T	Dede Westbrook	0.44	Emmanuel Sanders	12.50
K	Joey Slye	4.00	Joey Slye	4.00
DEF	Colts	7.84	Colts	7.84

Carried by One Guy: Dalvin Cook, 28.10 points (26.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 22 – 28, 2019

Kev

158.21

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

150.18

Rank 5; -2.5 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.50 points left. Optimal 168.71 vs. actual 158.21.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	18.36	Tom Brady	18.36
WR	Julio Jones	27.20	Julio Jones	27.20
WR	Corey Davis	2.90	Alex Erickson	15.70
RB	Devonta Freeman	16.20	Devonta Freeman	16.20
RB	Christian McCaffrey	29.50	Christian McCaffrey	29.50
TE	Jonnu Smith	19.80	Jonnu Smith	19.80
W/R/T	Alex Erickson	15.70	Duke Johnson	13.40
W/R/T	A.J. Brown	9.10	A.J. Brown	9.10
K	Robbie Gould	8.00	Robbie Gould	8.00
DEF	Titans	11.45	Titans	11.45

Carried by One Guy: Christian McCaffrey, 29.50 points (18.6% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.30 points left. Optimal 156.48 vs. actual 150.18.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Mason Rudolph	16.04	Mason Rudolph	16.04
WR	Julian Edelman	27.50	DeAndre Hopkins	23.90
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	23.90	Julian Edelman	27.50
RB	Jamaal Williams	18.60	Jamaal Williams	18.60
RB	Matt Breida	6.00	Royce Freeman	11.50
TE	Darren Waller	9.10	Darren Waller	9.10
W/R/T	Golden Tate	16.50	Golden Tate	16.50
W/R/T	Royce Freeman	11.50	Keenan Allen	12.30
K	Ka'imi Fairbairn	10.00	Ka'imi Fairbairn	10.00
DEF	Lions	11.04	Lions	11.04

Carried by One Guy: Julian Edelman, 27.50 points (18.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Christian McCaffrey scored 29.50; zeroing that score creates a win.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	4–4	5.077	-1.5	-0.115	1 / 2
Miller	3–5	3.615	-1.5	-0.115	1 / 2
Demich	3–5	3.077	+2.0	+0.154	1 / 1
Krajcik	6–2	4.538	+2.5	+0.192	2 / 1
Kev	5–3	4.692	-2.0	-0.154	1 / 1
Adam	4–4	4.231	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Niz	3–5	2.846	+1.0	+0.077	1 / 1
Josh	3–5	3.385	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1
Fischer	2–6	3.308	-2.0	-0.154	1 / 1
Nevans	5–3	4.923	-1.0	-0.077	1 / 1
Big Hut	6–2	5.231	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Martin	5–3	3.231	+6.5	+0.500	3 / 0
Joe Shore	3–5	2.923	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Horgan	4–4	4.923	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1

2019 week 8 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Niz lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Nevans lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 8