2019 week 11 · Luck Factor

Regular

Nov 12 – 18, 2019

j-mart

100.65

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Martin

108.19

Rank 9; +1.5 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.04 points left. Optimal 115.69 vs. actual 100.65.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyle Allen	7.70	Kyle Allen	7.70
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	12.70	Christian Kirk	10.20
WR	Christian Kirk	10.20	Larry Fitzgerald	12.70
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	19.30	Ezekiel Elliott	19.30
RB	Marlon Mack	18.90	Marlon Mack	18.90
TE	Nick Boyle	4.00	Nick Boyle	4.00
W/R/T	Brian Hill	4.80	Brian Hill	4.80
W/R/T	Ronald Jones	3.40	Tony Pollard	18.44
K	Nick Folk	8.00	Nick Folk	8.00
DEF	Patriots	11.65	Patriots	11.65

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Ezekiel Elliott, 19.30 points (19.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Kirk Cousins scored 24.86; zeroing that score creates a win.

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.90 points left. Optimal 125.09 vs. actual 108.19.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kirk Cousins	24.86	Kirk Cousins	24.86
WR	JuJu Smith-Schuster	4.10	Demaryius Thomas	8.40
WR	Dede Westbrook	7.20	Dede Westbrook	7.20
RB	Dalvin Cook	16.70	Dalvin Cook	16.70
RB	Kalen Ballage	12.70	Kalen Ballage	12.70
TE	Zach Ertz	18.40	Zach Ertz	18.40
W/R/T	Emmanuel Sanders	6.30	Carlos Hyde	12.50
W/R/T	Hollywood Brown	4.30	Greg Olsen	10.70
K	Joey Slye	3.00	Joey Slye	3.00
DEF	Colts	10.63	Colts	10.63

Carried by One Guy: Kirk Cousins, 24.86 points (23.0% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 12 – 18, 2019

Krajcik

88.35

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

119.78

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.90 points left. Optimal 103.25 vs. actual 88.35.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jared Goff	5.22	Philip Rivers	14.12
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	10.00	Odell Beckham Jr.	10.00
WR	Cooper Kupp	8.30	Cooper Kupp	8.30
RB	Tevin Coleman	9.20	Tevin Coleman	9.20
RB	Nick Chubb	9.20	Nick Chubb	9.20
TE	Kyle Rudolph	17.70	Kyle Rudolph	17.70
W/R/T	Terry McLaurin	9.90	Robbie Chosen	7.60
W/R/T	Ty Johnson	1.60	Terry McLaurin	9.90
K	Justin Tucker	12.00	Justin Tucker	12.00
DEF	Jaguars	5.23	Jaguars	5.23

Carried by One Guy: Kyle Rudolph, 17.70 points (20.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Lamar Jackson scored 32.78; zeroing that score creates a win.

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.60 points left. Optimal 136.38 vs. actual 119.78.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	32.78	Lamar Jackson	32.78
WR	Cole Beasley	7.80	Cole Beasley	7.80
WR	Diontae Johnson	3.90	Diontae Johnson	3.90
RB	Mark Ingram II	23.50	Mark Ingram II	23.50
RB	James Conner	2.60	Gus Edwards	19.20
TE	Noah Fant	9.30	Noah Fant	9.30
W/R/T	Josh Reynolds	8.00	Josh Reynolds	8.00
W/R/T	Deebo Samuel Sr.	23.40	Deebo Samuel Sr.	23.40
K	Zane Gonzalez	7.00	Zane Gonzalez	7.00
DEF	Steelers	1.50	Steelers	1.50

Carried by One Guy: Lamar Jackson, 32.78 points (27.4% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 12 – 18, 2019

Kev

113.98

Rank 8; +0.5 luck points

Josh

96.40

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.06 points left. Optimal 125.04 vs. actual 113.98.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	8.54	Tom Brady	8.54
WR	Julio Jones	14.70	Julio Jones	14.70
WR	Alex Erickson	1.64	Taylor Gabriel	12.70
RB	Duke Johnson	6.40	Duke Johnson	6.40
RB	Christian McCaffrey	32.10	Christian McCaffrey	32.10
TE	Jared Cook	11.30	Jared Cook	11.30
W/R/T	Kendrick Bourne	13.10	Kendrick Bourne	13.10
W/R/T	Russell Gage Jr.	5.20	Russell Gage Jr.	5.20
K	Michael Badgley	8.00	Michael Badgley	8.00
DEF	Raiders	13.00	Raiders	13.00

Carried by One Guy: Christian McCaffrey, 32.10 points (28.2% of positive starter points).

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 22.70 points left. Optimal 119.10 vs. actual 96.40.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jacoby Brissett	15.12	Baker Mayfield	21.82
WR	Mike Evans	10.90	Mike Evans	10.90
WR	Tyler Boyd	2.00	Tyler Boyd	2.00
RB	Le'Veon Bell	17.20	Le'Veon Bell	17.20
RB	Phillip Lindsay	9.50	Phillip Lindsay	9.50
TE	Ryan Griffin	23.90	Ryan Griffin	23.90
W/R/T	Robert Woods	0.00	Jaylen Samuels	15.50
W/R/T	O.J. Howard	0.00	Alexander Mattison	0.50
K	Sam Ficken	3.00	Sam Ficken	3.00
DEF	49ers	14.78	49ers	14.78

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Ryan Griffin, 23.90 points (24.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Christian McCaffrey scored 32.10; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 12 – 18, 2019

Adam

102.03

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Niz

135.94

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.20 points left. Optimal 110.23 vs. actual 102.03.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Deshaun Watson	3.96	Deshaun Watson	3.96
WR	Amari Cooper	6.80	Amari Cooper	6.80
WR	Courtland Sutton	20.82	Courtland Sutton	20.82
RB	James White	9.60	James White	9.60
RB	Raheem Mostert	4.70	Tarik Cohen	18.40
TE	Mark Andrews	17.50	Mark Andrews	17.50
W/R/T	Sammy Watkins	4.60	James Washington	7.90
W/R/T	Tarik Cohen	18.40	Auden Tate	9.60
K	Daniel Carlson	4.00	Daniel Carlson	4.00
DEF	Bills	11.65	Bills	11.65

Carried by One Guy: Courtland Sutton, 20.82 points (20.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 135.94 vs. actual 135.94.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	21.12	Drew Brees	21.12
WR	Marvin Jones Jr.	19.90	Marvin Jones Jr.	19.90
WR	DeVante Parker	22.50	DeVante Parker	22.50
RB	Todd Gurley	20.30	Todd Gurley	20.30
RB	Austin Ekeler	23.20	Austin Ekeler	23.20
TE	T.J. Hockenson	1.60	T.J. Hockenson	1.60
W/R/T	Mohamed Sanu	3.66	Mohamed Sanu	3.66
W/R/T	Tyreek Hill	0.00	Tyreek Hill	0.00
K	Matt Gay	7.00	Matt Gay	7.00
DEF	Browns	16.66	Browns	16.66

Carried by One Guy: Austin Ekeler, 23.20 points (17.1% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 12 – 18, 2019

Demich

136.84

Rank 4; -3.5 luck points

Nevans

141.81

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 22.20 points left. Optimal 159.04 vs. actual 136.84.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	26.70	Kyler Murray	26.70
WR	Kenny Golladay	4.40	Randall Cobb	23.50
WR	Calvin Ridley	30.30	Calvin Ridley	30.30
RB	Melvin Gordon III	12.00	Melvin Gordon III	12.00
RB	Joe Mixon	17.30	Joe Mixon	17.30
TE	Travis Kelce	22.20	Travis Kelce	22.20
W/R/T	Latavius Murray	5.20	Phillip Dorsett II	12.30
W/R/T	Phillip Dorsett II	12.30	Jason Witten	8.30
K	Dan Bailey	3.00	Dan Bailey	3.00
DEF	Cowboys	3.44	Cowboys	3.44

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Calvin Ridley, 30.30 points (22.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jimmy Garoppolo scored 31.66; zeroing that score creates a win.

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.65 points left. Optimal 150.46 vs. actual 141.81.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jimmy Garoppolo	31.66	Jimmy Garoppolo	31.66
WR	Jarvis Landry	14.30	Jarvis Landry	14.30
WR	Michael Thomas	27.40	Michael Thomas	27.40
RB	Sony Michel	6.40	Kareem Hunt	11.80
RB	Devin Singletary	8.90	Devin Singletary	8.90
TE	Hunter Henry	14.90	Hunter Henry	14.90
W/R/T	Jamison Crowder	18.60	Eric Ebron	6.70
W/R/T	Kareem Hunt	11.80	Jamison Crowder	18.60
K	Ka'imi Fairbairn	1.00	Ka'imi Fairbairn	1.00
DEF	Bears	6.85	Ravens	15.20

Carried by One Guy: Jimmy Garoppolo, 31.66 points (22.3% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 12 – 18, 2019

Miller

190.40

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

87.76

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.20 points left. Optimal 201.60 vs. actual 190.40.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	33.84	Josh Allen	33.84
WR	John Brown	36.70	John Brown	36.70
WR	DJ Chark	32.40	DJ Chark	32.40
RB	Alvin Kamara	22.84	Alvin Kamara	22.84
RB	Josh Jacobs	15.40	Josh Jacobs	15.40
TE	Vance McDonald	6.30	Dallas Goedert	12.60
W/R/T	Kenyan Drake	14.00	Kenyan Drake	14.00
W/R/T	Miles Sanders	6.70	Hunter Renfrow	11.60
K	Wil Lutz	10.00	Wil Lutz	10.00
DEF	Chiefs	12.22	Chiefs	12.22

Carried by One Guy: John Brown, 36.70 points (19.3% of positive starter points).

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.70 points left. Optimal 90.46 vs. actual 87.76.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	18.44	Matt Ryan	18.44
WR	Tyrell Williams	12.20	Tyrell Williams	12.20
WR	Chris Godwin Jr.	13.70	Chris Godwin Jr.	13.70
RB	Damien Williams	2.30	Leonard Fournette	12.70
RB	Leonard Fournette	12.70	Adrian Peterson	5.00
TE	Darren Fells	2.80	Darren Fells	2.80
W/R/T	Danny Amendola	8.70	Allen Robinson	5.50
W/R/T	Allen Robinson	5.50	Danny Amendola	8.70
K	Harrison Butker	7.00	Harrison Butker	7.00
DEF	Vikings	4.42	Vikings	4.42

Carried by One Guy: Matt Ryan, 18.44 points (21.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Nov 12 – 18, 2019

Joe Shore

131.62

Rank 6; -1.5 luck points

Horgan

143.81

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 131.62 vs. actual 131.62.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	33.56	Dak Prescott	33.56
WR	Stefon Diggs	25.10	Stefon Diggs	25.10
WR	Mike Williams	9.60	Mike Williams	9.60
RB	J.D. McKissic	8.30	J.D. McKissic	8.30
RB	David Montgomery	6.00	David Montgomery	6.00
TE	Jack Doyle	0.00	Jack Doyle	0.00
W/R/T	Nelson Agholor	8.00	Nelson Agholor	8.00
W/R/T	DJ Moore	17.62	DJ Moore	17.62
K	Greg Zuerlein	5.00	Greg Zuerlein	5.00
DEF	Saints	18.44	Saints	18.44

Carried by One Guy: Dak Prescott, 33.56 points (25.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Michael Gallup scored 25.80; zeroing that score creates a win.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.64 points left. Optimal 145.45 vs. actual 143.81.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	15.18	Jameis Winston	16.82
WR	Keenan Allen	21.10	Keenan Allen	21.10
WR	Michael Gallup	25.80	Michael Gallup	25.80
RB	Derrius Guice	13.90	Derrius Guice	13.90
RB	Royce Freeman	5.50	Royce Freeman	5.50
TE	Darren Waller	12.60	Darren Waller	12.60
W/R/T	Julian Edelman	14.90	DeAndre Hopkins	15.00
W/R/T	DeAndre Hopkins	15.00	Julian Edelman	14.90
K	Brett Maher	9.00	Brett Maher	9.00
DEF	Jets	10.83	Jets	10.83

Carried by One Guy: Michael Gallup, 25.80 points (17.9% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	5–6	7.000	-5.0	-0.385	1 / 3
Miller	5–6	5.231	-1.5	-0.115	1 / 2
Demich	4–7	4.769	-1.5	-0.115	1 / 2
Krajcik	6–5	4.615	+2.5	+0.192	2 / 1
Kev	6–5	5.692	-1.5	-0.115	2 / 1
Adam	5–6	5.385	+0.5	+0.038	1 / 0
Niz	6–5	5.385	+1.0	+0.077	1 / 1
Josh	5–6	4.846	-2.0	-0.154	1 / 1
Fischer	3–8	4.692	-3.5	-0.269	1 / 2
Nevans	8–3	7.692	-1.0	-0.077	1 / 1
Big Hut	7–4	6.154	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Martin	8–3	4.923	+8.0	+0.615	4 / 0
Joe Shore	3–8	3.923	-1.5	-0.115	0 / 1
Horgan	6–5	6.692	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1

2019 week 11 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Niz lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Nevans lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Joe Shore lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 11