2019 week 1 · Luck Factor

Regular

Sep 5 – 9, 2019

j-mart

138.06

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Miller

144.65

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.90 points left. Optimal 153.96 vs. actual 138.06.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	16.60	Russell Wilson	16.60
WR	Davante Adams	7.60	Tre'Quan Smith	10.60
WR	Corey Davis	0.00	DK Metcalf	12.90
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	13.30	Ezekiel Elliott	13.30
RB	Marlon Mack	27.40	Marlon Mack	27.40
TE	George Kittle	13.40	George Kittle	13.40
W/R/T	Larry Fitzgerald	27.30	Christian Kirk	10.76
W/R/T	Christian Kirk	10.76	Larry Fitzgerald	27.30
K	Robbie Gould	11.00	Robbie Gould	11.00
DEF	Patriots	10.70	Patriots	10.70

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Marlon Mack, 27.40 points (19.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: John Brown scored 27.30; zeroing that score creates a win.

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.76 points left. Optimal 153.41 vs. actual 144.65.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jameis Winston	7.06	Aaron Rodgers	12.92
WR	Adam Thielen	13.30	Adam Thielen	13.30
WR	Curtis Samuel	6.20	Curtis Samuel	6.20
RB	Alvin Kamara	23.90	Alvin Kamara	23.90
RB	Josh Jacobs	24.30	Josh Jacobs	24.30
TE	David Njoku	13.70	David Njoku	13.70
W/R/T	John Brown	27.30	Paul Richardson	7.60
W/R/T	Kenyan Drake	4.70	John Brown	27.30
K	Wil Lutz	15.00	Wil Lutz	15.00
DEF	Rams	9.19	Rams	9.19

Carried by One Guy: John Brown, 27.30 points (18.9% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 5 – 9, 2019

Niz

154.42

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

140.32

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.96 points left. Optimal 166.38 vs. actual 154.42.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	22.80	Drew Brees	22.80
WR	Brandin Cooks	5.90	Mohamed Sanu	10.70
WR	Tyreek Hill	4.10	DeVante Parker	10.50
RB	Todd Gurley	11.10	Todd Gurley	11.10
RB	Austin Ekeler	39.40	Austin Ekeler	39.40
TE	T.J. Hockenson	27.10	T.J. Hockenson	27.10
W/R/T	Marvin Jones Jr.	10.00	Derrick Henry	28.90
W/R/T	Derrick Henry	28.90	Dontrell Hilliard	10.76
K	Aldrick Rosas	4.00	Aldrick Rosas	4.00
DEF	Texans	1.12	Texans	1.12

Carried by One Guy: Austin Ekeler, 39.40 points (25.5% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.50 points left. Optimal 147.82 vs. actual 140.32.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	35.56	Lamar Jackson	35.56
WR	Cole Beasley	9.00	Cole Beasley	9.00
WR	Geronimo Allison	0.00	Miles Boykin	7.50
RB	Mark Ingram II	24.70	Mark Ingram II	24.70
RB	James Conner	10.50	James Conner	10.50
TE	Evan Engram	30.60	Evan Engram	30.60
W/R/T	James White	13.20	James White	13.20
W/R/T	O.J. Howard	5.20	O.J. Howard	5.20
K	Brett Maher	5.00	Brett Maher	5.00
DEF	Saints	6.56	Saints	6.56

Carried by One Guy: Lamar Jackson, 35.56 points (25.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Austin Ekeler scored 39.40; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 5 – 9, 2019

Adam

184.74

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Nevans

124.38

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 37.28 points left. Optimal 222.02 vs. actual 184.74.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Deshaun Watson	30.72	Deshaun Watson	30.72
WR	Alshon Jeffery	22.10	Alshon Jeffery	22.10
WR	Amari Cooper	24.60	Amari Cooper	24.60
RB	David Johnson	25.70	David Johnson	25.70
RB	Tarik Cohen	13.62	Malcolm Brown	17.30
TE	Vance McDonald	6.00	Mark Andrews	26.80
W/R/T	Sammy Watkins	48.80	Sammy Watkins	48.80
W/R/T	Kerryon Johnson	8.20	Courtland Sutton	21.00
K	Jake Elliott	5.00	Jake Elliott	5.00
DEF	Broncos	0.00	Broncos	0.00

Carried by One Guy: Sammy Watkins, 48.80 points (26.4% of positive starter points).

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.40 points left. Optimal 137.78 vs. actual 124.38.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Carson Wentz	27.02	Carson Wentz	27.02
WR	Tyler Lockett	11.40	Tyler Lockett	11.40
WR	Michael Thomas	24.30	Michael Thomas	24.30
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	4.90	Aaron Jones Sr.	4.90
RB	Sony Michel	1.40	Devin Singletary	14.80
TE	Hunter Henry	10.00	Hunter Henry	10.00
W/R/T	Jarvis Landry	11.70	Jarvis Landry	11.70
W/R/T	Jamison Crowder	24.30	Jamison Crowder	24.30
K	Matt Bryant	0.00	Matt Bryant	0.00
DEF	Bears	9.36	Bears	9.36

Carried by One Guy: Carson Wentz, 27.02 points (21.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 5 – 9, 2019

Kev

149.85

Rank 5; -2.5 luck points

Big Hut

154.59

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.20 points left. Optimal 153.05 vs. actual 149.85.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	27.64	Tom Brady	27.64
WR	Sterling Shepard	10.20	Sterling Shepard	10.20
WR	Deebo Samuel Sr.	4.70	James Washington	7.10
RB	Leonard Fournette	11.40	Leonard Fournette	11.40
RB	Christian McCaffrey	44.90	Christian McCaffrey	44.90
TE	Jared Cook	5.70	Jared Cook	5.70
W/R/T	Devonta Freeman	4.10	Duke Johnson	13.00
W/R/T	Duke Johnson	13.00	Alexander Mattison	4.90
K	Stephen Gostkowski	15.00	Stephen Gostkowski	15.00
DEF	Seahawks	13.21	Seahawks	13.21

Carried by One Guy: Christian McCaffrey, 44.90 points (30.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Matt Ryan scored 20.56; zeroing that score creates a win.

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 154.59 vs. actual 154.59.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	20.56	Matt Ryan	20.56
WR	Julio Jones	15.10	Julio Jones	15.10
WR	Chris Godwin Jr.	14.30	Chris Godwin Jr.	14.30
RB	Damien Williams	18.50	Damien Williams	18.50
RB	David Montgomery	5.50	David Montgomery	5.50
TE	Austin Hooper	16.70	Austin Hooper	16.70
W/R/T	Allen Robinson	19.20	Allen Robinson	19.20
W/R/T	DJ Moore	12.60	DJ Moore	12.60
K	Harrison Butker	15.00	Harrison Butker	15.00
DEF	Vikings	17.13	Vikings	17.13

Carried by One Guy: Matt Ryan, 20.56 points (13.3% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 5 – 9, 2019

Krajcik

97.32

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Martin

127.71

Rank 10; +2.5 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.00 points left. Optimal 104.32 vs. actual 97.32.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jared Goff	9.44	Ben Roethlisberger	9.74
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	14.10	Odell Beckham Jr.	14.10
WR	Will Fuller V	8.90	Will Fuller V	8.90
RB	Tevin Coleman	7.60	Tevin Coleman	7.60
RB	Nick Chubb	11.50	Nick Chubb	11.50
TE	Delanie Walker	22.50	Delanie Walker	22.50
W/R/T	Robbie Chosen	5.30	Jimmy Graham	12.00
W/R/T	Cooper Kupp	11.60	Cooper Kupp	11.60
K	Justin Tucker	11.00	Justin Tucker	11.00
DEF	Jaguars	-4.62	Jaguars	-4.62

Carried by One Guy: Delanie Walker, 22.50 points (22.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 35.14 points left. Optimal 162.85 vs. actual 127.71.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	5.36	Kirk Cousins	14.32
WR	JuJu Smith-Schuster	13.80	Dede Westbrook	14.20
WR	Dede Westbrook	14.20	Hollywood Brown	32.70
RB	Dalvin Cook	28.00	Carlos Hyde	9.50
RB	Rashaad Penny	2.22	Dalvin Cook	28.00
TE	Zach Ertz	10.40	Zach Ertz	10.40
W/R/T	Emmanuel Sanders	19.60	Emmanuel Sanders	19.60
W/R/T	T.Y. Hilton	28.70	T.Y. Hilton	28.70
K	Jason Myers	3.00	Jason Myers	3.00
DEF	Chargers	2.43	Chargers	2.43

Carried by One Guy: T.Y. Hilton, 28.70 points (22.5% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 5 – 9, 2019

Demich

95.12

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

149.16

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 36.80 points left. Optimal 131.92 vs. actual 95.12.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	23.62	Kyler Murray	23.62
WR	Kenny Golladay	14.20	Kenny Golladay	14.20
WR	Calvin Ridley	16.40	Calvin Ridley	16.40
RB	Latavius Murray	12.70	Chris Thompson	14.80
RB	Joe Mixon	3.70	Latavius Murray	12.70
TE	Travis Kelce	11.80	Travis Kelce	11.80
W/R/T	Dante Pettis	1.70	Randall Cobb	16.90
W/R/T	Darrell Henderson Jr.	0.00	Jason Witten	10.50
K	Dan Bailey	4.00	Dan Bailey	4.00
DEF	Cowboys	7.00	Cowboys	7.00

Carried by One Guy: Kyler Murray, 23.62 points (24.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 37.10 points left. Optimal 186.26 vs. actual 149.16.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	35.40	Dak Prescott	35.40
WR	Stefon Diggs	5.70	Josh Gordon	16.30
WR	Mike Williams	4.90	DeSean Jackson	37.40
RB	Chris Carson	24.00	Chris Carson	24.00
RB	Saquon Barkley	19.90	Saquon Barkley	19.90
TE	Jack Doyle	3.00	Jack Doyle	3.00
W/R/T	Josh Gordon	16.30	Tyrell Williams	24.50
W/R/T	Tyrell Williams	24.50	LeSean McCoy	10.30
K	Greg Zuerlein	14.00	Greg Zuerlein	14.00
DEF	Eagles	1.46	Eagles	1.46

Carried by One Guy: Dak Prescott, 35.40 points (23.7% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 5 – 9, 2019

Josh

90.81

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

173.78

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.30 points left. Optimal 98.11 vs. actual 90.81.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Baker Mayfield	9.40	Baker Mayfield	9.40
WR	Robert Woods	16.60	Robert Woods	16.60
WR	Mike Evans	4.80	Tyler Boyd	14.30
RB	Le'Veon Bell	23.20	Le'Veon Bell	23.20
RB	Phillip Lindsay	10.60	Phillip Lindsay	10.60
TE	Trey Burton	0.00	Trey Burton	0.00
W/R/T	Donte Moncrief	3.70	Giovani Bernard	8.30
W/R/T	Tyler Boyd	14.30	Jordan Howard	7.50
K	Brandon McManus	8.00	Brandon McManus	8.00
DEF	Browns	0.21	Browns	0.21

Carried by One Guy: Le'Veon Bell, 23.20 points (25.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.90 points left. Optimal 177.68 vs. actual 173.78.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	29.32	Patrick Mahomes	29.32
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	33.10	DeAndre Hopkins	33.10
WR	Keenan Allen	28.30	Keenan Allen	28.30
RB	Matt Breida	3.70	Dare Ogunbowale	7.30
RB	Derrius Guice	6.80	Royce Freeman	7.10
TE	Darren Waller	14.00	Darren Waller	14.00
W/R/T	Julian Edelman	16.38	Michael Gallup	24.80
W/R/T	Michael Gallup	24.80	Julian Edelman	16.38
K	Ka'imi Fairbairn	4.00	Ka'imi Fairbairn	4.00
DEF	Ravens	13.38	Ravens	13.38

Carried by One Guy: DeAndre Hopkins, 33.10 points (19.0% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	0–1	0.385	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Miller	1–0	0.538	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Demich	0–1	0.077	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Krajcik	0–1	0.154	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Kev	0–1	0.692	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1
Adam	1–0	1.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Niz	1–0	0.769	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Josh	0–1	0.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Fischer	0–1	0.462	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Nevans	0–1	0.231	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Big Hut	1–0	0.846	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Martin	1–0	0.308	+2.5	+0.192	1 / 0
Joe Shore	1–0	0.615	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Horgan	1–0	0.923	0.0	0.000	0 / 0

2019 week 1 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Miller lineup

Regular

Niz lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Nevans lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 1